ECB Lagarde: We’re heading firmly towards a return to pre-COVID-19 level

    ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a Politco interview, “you don’t remove the crutches from a patient unless and until the muscles have started rebuilding sufficiently so that the patient can walk on his or her own two legs. ”

    “The same applies to the economy,” She added. “We are at a turning point where, bearing in mind alternative variants, we are on that recovery path, heading firmly towards a return to the pre-COVID-19 level.

    She also reiterated that ECB has indicated the PEPP program will continue “until at least March 2022 and, in any case, until the Governing Council judges that the pandemic crisis phase is over.” Eurozone seems to be “heading in the right decision”. But it’s “far too early to debate” ending the PEPP program.

    Full interview here.

    Gold heading to 1855 and below as consolidation extends

      Much volatility was seen in Gold last week but overall outlook is unchanged. We’re viewing price actions from 1916.30 as developing into a corrective pattern, that’s still in progress. Today’s fall suggests that it’s already in the third leg. Break of 1855.30 support will target 55 day EMA (now at 1838.82) and possibly below.

      At this point, we’re still viewing larger correction from 2075.18 as completed with three waves down to 1676.65. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1676.65 to 1916.30 at 1824.75 to contain downside, and bring rise resumption. We’d expect rise from 1676.65 to resume at a later stage, to retest 2075.18 high.

      WTI breaches 71 handle, on track to 74.5 target

        WTI crude oil’s up trend continues today and breaches 71 handle. There are some concerns that OPEC might not be able to raise the pace of production increase to meet the rebound in demand later this year. Indeed, the Paris-based IEA urged on Friday, “OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied”.

        Overall, the medium term up trend in WTI crude oil looks healthy, with notable support form 55 day EMA. Outlook remains bullish as long as 68.33 support holds. Current rise is on track to 38.2% projection of 33.80 to 67.83 from 61.51 at 74.50.

        Bitcoin extending rebound, on track to 43967 target

          Bitcoin jumped over the weekend and breached 39481 resistance today. The strong support from 4 hour 55 EMA affirms near term bullishness. The development also affirms our view that whole decline from 64828 has completed with five waves down to 31073 (with the last as a failure fifth).

          Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 35816 support holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 64828 to 31073 at 43967 at least. It’s a bit early. But we’d pencil in the prospect for further rise to 61.8% retracement at 51933.

          NZIER upgrades New Zealand growth outlook for next two years

            NZIER said near term growth outlook for New Zealand has been revised up. Annual average growth in GDP is expected to reach 5% level in March 2022. Also, on average, annual growth is expected to reach 2.6% by March 2024. Inflation outlook is also revised up, reflecting that effects of cost increases are expected to persist over the coming years.

            RBNZ has indicated that it would likely start raising interest rate in the second half of 2022. NZIER said it’s in line with forecasts for the 90-day bank bill rate. Also, expectation of higher inflation globally have driven up long-term interest rates. Outlook for long-term bond yields has also been revised up.

            Full release here.

            UK NIESR projects 1.5% GDP growth in May, 0.9% in Jun

              NIESR said retail and hospitality would contribute significantly to UK growth in May. It forecasts monthly GDP growth of 1.5% in May and 0.9% in June. But it also warned that “Postponing the last step of re-opening may delay the recovery in arts and recreation by a few weeks but, if it helps avoid a third wave of infections, it could contribute to sustained recovery in the second half of the year.”

              “Like March, April was a month of rapid growth in services output, as anticipated, driven by the re-opening of non-essential retail, outdoor hospitality and near-full attendance in schools. May will follow a similar pattern, as further restrictions are lifted, as will June if the final step of the roadmap goes to plan. But falls in construction and production, which were less affected by the 2021 lockdown, remind us that our focus should now be on the prospects for the economy in the second half of the year, after temporary re-opening effects have ceased to provide strong monthly increases.” Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting.

              Full release here.

              ECB Knot: Structurally larger role for fiscal policy needed

                ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot said “as the current low interest rate environment is likely to persist, we need a structurally larger role for fiscal policy in macroeconomic stabilization for the foreseeable future.”

                He hailed that the EUR 800B recovery fund was a “big step in the right direction”. “If it becomes a tangible success, it would of course set a precedent, with the promise of more to come.”

                Bundesbank upgrades German GDP forecast, at beginning of strong upswing

                  Bundesbank upgraded Germany GDP growth forecast to 3.7% (from 3.0%) in 2021, 5.2% in 2022 (from 4.5%). Growth is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2023. It said that “the German economy is overcoming the pandemic-related crisis and is at the beginning of a strong upswing”. The economy is expected to reach pre crisis level again “this summer”.

                  Inflation to also projected to accelerate to 2.6% yoy this year (upgraded from 1.8%). For 2022, inflation forecast is upgraded to 1.8% (from 1.3%), and for 2023 at 1.7% (from 1.6%). It added, “the exceptionally high inflation rates, by German standards, projected for the second half of 2021 could ultimately shift economic agents’ inflation perceptions and expectations,”

                  “As a result, wage and price-setting behavior could change and exert further inflationary pressure. This would especially be the case if headline price inflation in the near future were to be even higher than estimated here”, the report added.

                  Full release here.

                  UK GDP grew 2.3% mom in Apr, back above initial recovery peak

                    UK GDP grew 2.3% mom in April, slightly below expectation of 2.4% mom. That’s still the fastest monthly growth since July 2020, as pandemic restrictions eased. Services grew solidly by 3.4% mom. But production dropped -1.3% mom, first fall since January. Construction also contracted by -2.0% mom. Overall, GDP remains -3.7% below pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, but was 1.2% above initial recovery peak in October 2020.

                    Full release here.

                    Also released, industrial production came in at -1.3% mom, 27.5% yoy in April, versus expectation of 1.2% mom, 30.2% yoy. Manufacturing production came in at -0.3% mom, 39.7% yoy, versus expectation of 1.5% mom, 42.0% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -11.0B.

                    New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing rose to 0.3, upward pressure on input prices

                      New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 to 58.6 in May. Looking at some details, production rose from 64. to 65.3. Employment dropped from 52.2 to 51.5. New orders rose from 61.0 to 63.7. Finished stocks dropped from 54.7 to 52.4. Deliveries rose from 52.6 to 53.5.

                      BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said: “Globally, manufacturing activity continues to expand at a robust pace, culminating in an 11-year high for May. However, this has led to upwards pressure on input prices across most countries, including New Zealand, given comments from respondents outlining increased costs of raw materials.”

                      Full release here.

                      BoC Lane hinted at more tapering in July

                        BoC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane said in a speech that, “the bottom line is that the Canadian economy has been largely on track with our story.”Vaccinations are also rolling out “at, or faster than, the pace we assumed in April”. Other economies are also picking up “smartly as they have reopened”. The developments are “encouraging” and suggest that “we are on track for a strong consumer-led recovery as containment measures ease here in Canada.”

                        Some decisions on further adjustment on asset purchases could be made in July. Lane reiterated that “if the recovery evolves in line with or stronger than in our latest projection, then the economy won’t need as much QE stimulus over time”. BoC would have the “coming weeks” to assess the reopening in Canada, and there will be an updated outlook in July too.

                        Full speech here.

                        ECB upgrades growth and inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022

                          In the post meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, business and consumer surveys and high-frequency indicators point to a “sizeable improvement” in activity in Q2. Business surveys indicate a “strong recovery in services” while manufacturing production “remains robust”. Consumer confidence are “strengthening”, suggesting a strong rebound in private consumption in the period ahead. Business investments shows “resilience”.

                          According to the baseline scenario, ECB upgraded real GDP growth forecast in 2021 to 4.6% (up from 4.0%) , in 2022 to 4.7% (up from 4.1%). 2023 growth forecast was unchanged at 2.1%. Annual inflation is projected to be at 1.9% in 2021 (up from 1.5%), 1.5% in 2022 (up from 1.2%) and 1.4% in 2023 (unchanged).

                          Full statement here.

                          US CPI jumped to 5% yoy, core CPI up to 3.8% yoy

                            US CPI rose 0.6% mom in May, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Over the last 12 months, CPI accelerated sharply to 5.0% yoy, up from 4.2% yoy, above expectation of 4.6% yoy. That’s also the highest annual inflation since August 2008. The index has also bee trending up ever month since January.

                            Core CPI, all items less food and energy, rose 0.7% mom, versus expectation of 0.4% mom. Over the last 12-months, core CPI accelerated to 3.8% yoy, up from 3.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy. That’s the largest annual increase since June 1992.

                            Full release here.

                            US initial claims dropped to 376k, continuing claims below 3.5m

                              US initial jobless claims dropped -9k to 376k in the week ending June 5, slightly above expectation of 368k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -25.5k to 402.5k. Both were the lowest level since March 14, 2020.

                              Continuing claims dropped -258k to 3499k in the week ending May 29, lowest since March 21, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -35k to 3651k, lowest since March 28, 2020.

                              Full release here.

                              ECB press conference live stream

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                                Full introductory statement here.

                                ECB announces to continue PEPP at significantly higher pace

                                  ECB left main refinancing rate at 0.00% today, while marginal lending rate and deposit rate are held at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. It maintained that interest rates will “remain at their present or lower levels” until inflation outlook robustly converge to price target of close to but below 2%.

                                  The pandemic emergency purchase programme will continue with a total envelope of EUR 1850B, “until at least the end of March 2022”. More importantly, purchases will be conducted over the coming quarter at a “significantly higher pace” than during the first months of the year.

                                  Full statement here.

                                  Bitcoin finished near term decline, heading back to 44k and then 52k

                                    In a consultation paper, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said that “while the cryptoasset market remains small relative to the size of the global financial system, and banks’ exposures to cryptoassets are currently limited, its absolute size is meaningful and there continues to be rapid developments, with increased attention from a broad range of stakeholders.” And, “cryptoassets have given rise to a range of concerns including consumer protection, money laundering and terrorist financing, and their carbon footprint.

                                    It proposed that a “group 1” cryptoassets, like stablecoins, would be assigned a smaller risk weighting in line with stocks. On the other hand, a “group 2” crypto assets like bitcoin would be assigned a risk weight of 1250%. That is, banks will have to hold capital at least equal in value to their group 2 exposures. “The capital will be sufficient to absorb a full write-off of the cryptoasset exposures without exposing depositors and other senior creditors of the banks to a loss,” it added.

                                    Full Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures” here.

                                    Bitcoin is having a notable rebound in the past two days. The development now argues that the near term decline from 64828 might have completed with a failure fifth wave at 31073 already. Immediate focus is now on 39481 resistance. Break there will affirm our view. Bitcoin should then target 38.2% retracement of 64828 to 31073 at 43967 at least. There is also enough prospect for further rise to 61.8% retracement at 51933 indeed.

                                    ECB previews and a look at EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP

                                      Main focus for today’s ECB monetary policy decision in on the outlook of the PEPP purchases after June. The central bank significantly stepped up the pace of purchases in Q2, partly in response to the surge in sovereign yields earlier this year. The move has kept yield stable and helped improvement in the economy. Outlook also brightened with accelerated vaccination. Yet, policy makers will more likely play safe than not and maintain the current pace of purchases first, while emphasizing the flexibility of the program.

                                      Here are some suggested previews:

                                      In terms of market reactions, we’d pay close attention to two European crosses, EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP. EUR/CHF dropped further ahead of the meeting and is now trading slightly below a key cluster support zone at 1.0915 (38.2% retracement 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0903). Deeper selloff would also push EUR/CHF through the medium term channel support, which could bring downside acceleration. That would, at least, indicate that fall from 1.1149 is a deeper correction to whole up trend from 1.0505. Deeper fall could then be seen to 1.0737 support zone (61.8% retracement at 1.0751).

                                      On the other hand, outlook in EUR/GBP is slightly more bullish as the price actions from 0.8718 are rather corrective. It argues that rebound fro 0.8470 is not over yet. But some committed buying is needed to push EUR/GBP through 55 day EMA firmly first. Break of 0.8670 would indeed argue that such rise is ready to resume through 0.8718. If that happens, EUR/CHF could also be given a lift back above mentioned 1.0903/15 key support zone. We’ll see which way it plays out.

                                      Chinese and US commerce officials exchanged views on issues and concerns

                                        According to a statement by the Chinese Commerce Ministry, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao spoke with US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on phone today, and agreed to promote healthy trade and cooperations.

                                        The statement said, they “agreed to promote the healthy development of pragmatic cooperation in trade and investment”. Both sides “exchanged views frankly and pragmatically on relevant issues and mutual concerns,”

                                        That’s the third exchanges between US and Chinese top officials in recent weeks, after Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke with US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

                                        Japan PPI jumped to 4.9% yoy in May, highest since 2008

                                          Japan PPI accelerated to 4.9% yoy in May, up sharply from April’s 3.8% yoy, above expectation of 4.5% yoy. That’s also the largest annual rise since September 2008. Oil and coal prices jumped 53.5% yoy. Nonferrous meals were up 41.6% yoy. Wood and lumber prices were also up 9.7% yoy.

                                          Shigeru Shimizu, head of the BoJ’s price statistics division, said, “rising commodities prices reflecting the global economic recovery is pushing up wholesale prices for a broad range of goods.”

                                          “The data shows companies are starting to pass on rising costs, though the gain in wholesale prices is driven more by external factors rather than domestic demand,” he said.