ECB Holzmann: Rise deposit rate to zero by year end important

    ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said, “an increase to the deposit rate to zero by the end of the year would be important for monetary policy because it increases optionality.”

    “If, towards the end of the year, we were to find that inflation will remain higher for longer, we would have to tighten monetary policy more and raise interest rates more significantly,” he added.

    Swiss KOF rises slightly to 102.7, gradual recovery continues

      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose from 102.2 to 102.7 in June, surpassing expectations of 100.5. According to KOF, the Swiss economy is projected to “continue to recover little by little over the coming months.”

      This increase is largely driven by a more favorable outlook for foreign demand. Additionally, the hospitality industry is expected to see stronger benefits. The indicators for manufacturing, construction, and private consumption remained virtually unchanged in June. However, the outlook for financial and insurance services, along with other service sectors, has slightly dimmed.

      Full Swiss KOF release here.

      Japan PMI manufacturing finalized 48.9, seventh month of contraction

        Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 48.9 in November, up from 48.4 in October. That’s the seven straight month of sub-50 reading, signalling a continuation of the downturn in the manufacturing sector. Jibun Bank noted that solid decline in new orders led to further output cutbacks. Economic weakness across Asia hit exports. Selling charges also decreased for the sixth month running.

        Commenting on the latest survey results, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

        “Japan’s manufacturing sector remains firmly stuck in contraction, with the same issues which have plagued the industrial world once again hitting firms where it hurts. In particular, export orders dropped at the fastest rate since mid-year amid reports of demand weakness at key trade destinations, namely China.

        “At the sub-sectors, it was intermediate and investment goods which were the primary sources of economic decline, whereas consumer goods makers observed improvements in business conditions.

        “Signs of how deeply-rooted this manufacturing downturn in Japan has become were seen in other survey data. Price discounting has been a trend in each of the past six months, highlighting that firms are now actively trying to tackle the sluggish demand conditions. Inventories of inputs also fell at a sharp rate, suggesting that firms are not expecting output requirements to rise anytime soon.”

        Full release here.

        Canada’s GDP grows 0.2% mom in Feb, vs exp. 0.3% mom

          Canada’s GDP grew 0.2% mom in February, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Services-producing industries (+0.2%) led the growth for a second month in a row. Goods-producing industries aggregate was essentially unchanged. Overall, 12 of 20 sectors increased in the month.

          Advance information indicates that real GDP was essentially unchanged in March. That suggests the economy expanded 0.6% in the first quarter of 2024.

          Full Canada GDP release here.

          UK PM May takes floor, Hammon express support

            UK Prime Minster takes floor in the House of Commons as two of her cabinet members resigned today over her Brexit plan. May thanks former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Minister David Davis.

            May emphasized that the new Brexit plan would take back control of laws and borders. At the same time, she rejected EU’s proposal and warned that “if the EU continues on this course, there is a serious risk it could lead to no deal.”

            May also defended the plan regarding the common rulebook on goods as she said “the friction-free movement of goods is the only way to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.”

            May also said the plan agreed was a new model that would accelerate negotiations over the summer, secure a new relationship in the autumn, followed by the passing of the withdrawal bill to leave the EU in March 2019.

            The Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond expressed her support to May in his tweets.

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            Now, the question is, whether the resignation of Davis and Johnson would bring down May’s government? Or actually strengthen it.

            Bundesbank Nagel: We must make the first rates move in July

              In a Der Spiegel interview, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said, “in our June meeting we must send a clear signal where we’re going. From my current perspective, we must then make the first rates move in July and have others follow in the second half of the year.”

              Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde has already indicated, “we’re moving (deposit rate) very likely into positive territory at the end of the third quarter… When you’re out of negative (rates) you can be at zero, you can be slightly above zero. This is something that we will determine on the basis of our projections and … forward guidance.”

              Fed George: We have got to get to neutral really fast

                In a WSJ interview, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that with inflation at at 7.5% in January, and the benchmark interest a rate near zero, Fed’s policy is “out of sync”. But she said it’s too soon to say if Fed should hike by 50bps in March. She also hasn’t form a view on how much interest rate has to go up this year.

                “What we have to do is be systematic,” George said. “It is always preferable to go gradual…Given where we are, the uncertainties around the pandemic effects and other things, I’d be hard-pressed to say we have got to get to neutral really fast.”

                “If we get to March and the data says we should be talking about that [a half-point rate increase], I’m sure that will be in play, but I’m not sure that is the answer, per se, to how we get there,” George added.

                She also dismissed the idea of holding an emergency FOMC meeting to raise interest rate. “I don’t know that I’d call the markets reacting to data an emergency here, because frankly, in my own forecast of looking where inflation was moving, the print was not a surprise,” she said.

                DOW rises over 400pts on Fed Powell’s openness to rate cut

                  US stocks stage a very strong rebound today with DOW trading up over 400 pts at the time of writing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s short comments on current outlook and policy seemed to be the trigger. Markets believed that Powell signaled his openness to rate cut.

                  This is the exact quote from the remarks: “I’d like first to say a word about recent developments involving trade negotiations and other matters. We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved. We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective. My comments today, like this conference, will focus on longer-run issues that will remain even as the issues of the moment evolve.

                  It’s firstly seen as acknowledgement on risks from “trade negotiations and other markets” And Fed will “act as appropriate” after monitoring the implications on economic outlook. That is, some saw that as a node to cutting rates if the economy worsen due to Trump’s trade wars.

                  Technically, it now looks like DOW has drawn strong support from 38.2% retracement of 21712.53 to 26695.96 at 24792.28. The gap resistance at 25342.28 will likely be taken out this week to confirm short term bottoming at 2480.57. The real test is on 55 day EMA (now at 25736). Before sustained trading above this EMA, we’d still favor another decline to 61.8% retracement at 23616.20 and below.

                  NASDAQ hits new low as medium term correction resumes

                    NASDAQ lost -3.95%% overnight and closed at a new 2022 low. The development suggests that whole corrective fall from 16212.22 is resuming. More importantly, a key medium term fibonacci support at 38.2% retracement of 6631.41 to 16212.22 at 12552.35 is taken out. If this fibonacci support cannot be reclaimed soon, the decline ahead could be rather deep.

                    Tentatively, NASDAQ should target 100% projection of 16212.22 to 12587.88 from 14646.90 at 11022.56 next. There should be strong support around this level, and above 61.8% retracement of 6631.42 to 16212.22 at 10291.28 to contain downside to finish the correction.

                    BoE Bailey can’t tell when interest rates start to come down

                      In an interview with BBC’s Newsround, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey retrained from providing a definite timeline for potential decreases in interest rates. Instead, he emphasized the necessity of bringing inflation under control.

                      “I can’t give you a date as to when interest rates start to come down because that really depends upon what happens over the period of time ahead, but getting inflation down is the most important thing that we have to do,” Bailey stated.

                      Offering a glimmer of optimism, Bailey noted a discernible reduction in inflation. He predicted a noticeable fall in inflation rates and affirmed the bank’s dedication to lowering it to their target level of 2%.

                      Inflation “has already started to come down and I expect … quite a marked fall in inflation, we’ll notice it. What we have to do is set the interest rate to get it all the way down to 2%,” he expounded.

                      NASDAQ rejected by 14k after hawkish Fed, risks heavily on the downside

                        US stock markets tumbled sharply overnight and futures dive further in Asian session. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded very hawkish during the post meeting press conference. The indication that rate hikes would start in March wasn’t much of a surprise. But Powell indicated that every meeting in “live” and refused to rule out 50bps hikes. Some economists are now forecasting as many as five hikes this year.

                        On inflation, Powell also warned “are still to the upside in the views of most FOMC participants, and certainly in my view as well”. And, “there’s a risk that the high inflation we are seeing will be prolonged. There’s a risk that it will move even higher. So, we don’t think that’s the base case, but, you asked what the risks are, and we have to be in a position with our monetary policy to address all of the plausible outcomes,”

                        NASDAQ was rejected by 14k psychological level and 38.2% retracement 15319.03 to 13094.65 at 13944.36 to close flat. The development keeps near term risks heavily on the downside. Immediate focus is back on 13414.14 support. Break firm break there will argue that the free fall from 16212.22 is resuming. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 6631.42 to 16212.22 at 12552.35.

                        Canada retail sales dropped -0.1%, ex-auto sales dropped -0.3%

                          Canada retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in May, much worse than expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.3% mom, also much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom. Sales were down in 4 of 11 subsectors, representing 39% of retail trade. Sales also dropped in eight provinces.

                          Full release here.

                          USD/CAD rebounds strongly after the Canadian data disappointment. Though, upside is limited below 1.3143 resistance. There is no confirmation of short term bottoming yet and another fall remains mildly in favor.

                          China imports and exports contracted deeply in Sept

                            China’s September trade data were rather poor. In particular, imports dropped -8.5% yoy versus expectation of -5.2% yoy,. suggesting weak domestic demand. Exports also contracted -3.2% yoy versus expectation of -3.0% yoy. Trade surplus widened to USD 39.7B. But year-to September, exports just dropped -0.1% yoy while imports dropped -5.0% yoy.

                            In USD term, in September:

                            • Total trade dropped -5.7% yoy to USD 396.6B.
                            • Exports dropped -3.2% yoy to USD 218.1B.
                            • Imports dropped -8.5% yoy to USD 178.5B.
                            • Trade surplus came in at USD 39.7B.

                            Year-to-September:

                            • Total trade dropped -2.4% yoy to USD 3351.8B.
                            • Exports dropped -0.1% yoy to USD 1825.1B.
                            • Imports dropped -5.0% yoy to USD 1526.7B.
                            • Trade surplus was at USD 298.4B.

                            With US, Year-to-September:

                            • Total trade dropped -14.8% yoy to USD 402.7B.
                            • Exports to US dropped -10.7% yoy to USD 312.0B.
                            • Imports from US dropped -26.4% yoy to USD 90.7B.
                            • Trade surplus was at USD 221.3B.

                            With EU, Year-to September:

                            • Total trade rose 3.2% yoy to USD 522.5B.
                            • Exports rose 5.1% yoy to USD 316.8B.
                            • Imports rose 0.3% yoy to USD 205.8B.
                            • Trade surplus was at USD 111.0B

                            German industrial production dropped -1.5%, 10-yr bund yield hits new record low

                              Germany industrial production dropped -1.5% mom in June, (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted), worse than expectation of -0.5 mom. Production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by -1.8%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by -2.0% and the production of capital goods by -1.8%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease by -1.4%. Outside industry, energy production was down by -1.6% in June 2019 and the production in construction increased by 0.3%.

                              Full release here.

                              German 10-year bund yield drops to new record low of -0.561 today. Euro also softens mildly, but downside is so far limited.

                              ECB’s Lagarde:We are not done yet, we are not pausing

                                In am interview on the Buitenhof TV show, ECB President Christine Lagarde discussed the bank’s progress in tackling inflation, but refrained from giving forward guidance on the monetary policy.

                                Lagarde noted significant strides have been made in controlling inflation and bringing it in line with ECB’s target. However, she cautioned that the journey isn’t over yet. “I think we covered a large chunk of the journey toward taming inflation and bringing it back to our target,” she said.

                                Despite this progress, she made it clear “We are not done yet, we are not pausing based on the information I have today.” And, “inflation outlook is too high and for too long.”

                                When asked about providing forward guidance, Lagarde expressed caution, citing the potential for various unforeseen factors that could disrupt the economic outlook. “So many things can go wrong that we cannot give what we call forward guidance,” she said. “I don’t have a predetermined number in my mind.”

                                Lagarde also addressed the ongoing US debt ceiling standoff, emphasizing its potential consequences for both the US and the global economy. “If the United States was to default on its debt it would be a catastrophic development for its economy and for the global economy because of the size of the US economy, because of the depth of its financial sector and because of the totally unpredictable situation that they are facing,” she explained.

                                Despite these risks, Lagarde expressed optimism that common sense would prevail among US leaders, thus avoiding a severely negative economic development. “I have trust in the common sense and the civic sense of the leaders to reach an agreement — which otherwise would take us into a very, very negative development,” she said.

                                Fed Bostic expects tapering in next few months, one rate hike in 2022, two in 2023

                                  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday, “given the upside surprises in recent data points, I have pulled forward my projection for our first move to late 2022,” followed by “two moves in 2023.”

                                  “I think the economy is well on its way to recovering from the pandemic,” he added. “Much of the data recently has come in stronger than I expected. GDP is on a stronger trajectory, inflation has been higher and I recognize is well above our target.”

                                  Additionally, he said if data “print at levels comparable to what we have seen recently” in the next few months, “we will have reached that standard” of “substantial further progress”. “Given that is a distinct possibility I think it is fully appropriate to be planning to start the tapering process.”

                                  Silver resumes rebound from 21.39, targeting 23.90 first

                                    Silver’s rebound from 21.39 resumed by breaking through 23.42 and hitting as high as 23.63 so far. Further rise is now in favor as long as 22.79 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 21.39 to 23.42 from 21.93 at 23.90.

                                    The main question is still on whether corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed as a five-wave descending triangle at 21.39. Break of 23.90 projection level will affirm the bullish case. Upside acceleration could then follow to 161.8% projection at 25.21, which is close to 25.39.

                                    However, rejection by 21.39 will keep the rebound from 21.39 corrective and maintain medium term bearishness.

                                    Fed Evans comfortable with 25 bps hike, open to 50bps

                                      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he’s “comfortable” with a 25bps hike and “open” to a 50bps move.

                                      “We want to be careful, we want to be humble and nimble, and get to neutral before too long — maybe 50 helps, I’m open to that,” he said in a Q&A session after a speech. “I would be comfortable with each meeting increasing by a quarter point.”

                                      “This is a signal of more general pressure from aggregate demand on today’s impinged supply,” he said in the speech. “If monetary policy did not respond to these broader pressures, we would see higher inflation become embedded in inflation expectations, and we would have even harder work to do to rein it in.”

                                      “Policymakers need to be cautious, humble, and nimble as we navigate the course ahead,” Evans said. “Monetary policy is not on a preset course” but will be decided at each Fed meeting.

                                      US initial jobless claims rose back to 742k, continuing claims dropped to 6.37m

                                        US initial jobless claims rose 31k to 742k in the week ending November 14, above expectation of 707k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -14k to 742k.

                                        Continuing claims dropped -429k to 6372k in the week ending November 7. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -525k to 7055k.

                                        Full release here.

                                        China FX reserve dropped $8.2B in Aug, no large scale direction intervention yet

                                          China’s foreign currency holding dropped slightly by USD 8.2B to USD 3.110T in August, down from USD 3.118T. But that’s still lower than market expectation of USD 3.115T. Nonetheless the data showed that China’s capital control measures worked reasonable well so far and thus, there was no imminent need to large scale direct intervention.

                                          Back in August, China restarted a reserve requirement on foreign exchange forward trading. Also, a counter-cyclical factor in daily pricing of Yuan was reinstated.

                                          USD/CNH (off-shore Yuan) surged sharply since March low at 6.2359 to as high as 6.9586 as trade tension with US escalated.