France PMI manufacturing rose to 54.6, services jumped to 58.2

    France PMI Manufacturing rose to 54.6 in November, up from 53.6, above expectation of 52.8. PMI Services rose to 58.2, up from 56.6, above expectation of 55.5. That’s also the highest level in 46 months. PMI Composite rose to 56.3, up from 54.7.

    Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said:

    “Having embarked on a clear period of slowing growth in the months leading up to October, the flash PMI data for November showed a fresh acceleration in French economic expansion. As well as stronger growth in output, new orders rose at a faster pace, which firms suggest is down to businesses recovering, helping to lift client demand.

    “However, the driving force behind improvements in the data is services. Manufacturers are still struggling with component shortages, long lead times and subdued demand conditions. These factors drove back-to-back drops in production.

    “Unfortunately, this puts the wider economic recovery in a precarious position, especially with the raft of new COVID-19 containment measures being implemented across other parts of Europe. While French officials have talked down the prospect of imminent restrictions, the trajectory of the virus in the coming weeks will be a key determinant of near-term economic activity, as any new restrictions are likely to hit the service sector, which at present is giving the economic recovery its principal impetus.”

    Full release here.

    Philadelphia Fed manufacturing outlook shows signs of optimism despite persistent negativity in general activity

      The July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philadelphia Fed presented a mixed bag of indicators. The diffusion index for current general activity marginally improved from -13.7 to -13.5, slightly exceeding expectations of -15.5. But it registered its 11th consecutive negative reading. Also, the persistent negativity was reflected as over 30% of the firms reported decreases, outnumbering the 17% that reported increases. Nearly half of the firms (49%) reported no change in current activity.

      The new orders index took a hit, dropping -5 points to -15.9, marking its 14th consecutive negative reading. The employment index also dipped marginally from -0.4 last month to -1.0 this month. Furthermore, the prices paid diffusion index decline by -1 point to 9.5.

      In a ray of hope, the diffusion index for future general activity saw a significant jump from 12.7 in June to 29.1, recording the index’s highest reading since August 2021. This indicates growing optimism about future business conditions. Nearly 40% of firms anticipate an increase in activity over the next six months, up from 33% last month, with only 11% expecting a decrease (down from 20%). Meanwhile, 46% anticipate no change, slightly up from 44% in the previous month.

      Full Philly Fed Survey release here.

      Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in Mar, to grow 0.2% in Apr

        Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in March, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Services producing sectors rose 0.6% while goods-producing sectors rose 0.9%. 14 of 20 industrial sectors expanded. For Q1, GDP grew 0.8% qoq.

        Advanced information indicates that real GDP grew another 0.2% mom in April. Output was up in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas, transportation and warehousing and wholesale trade sectors.

        Full release here.

        NFP and Canada employment preview, 1.3000 key in USD/CAD

          Job data from US and Canada are the two main focuses in US session.

          NFP market expectations: –

          • Headline NFP number: 205k
          • Unemployment rate 4.0%
          • Average hourly earnings: 0.20% mom

          Other job released data includes ADP at 235k. ISM manufacturing employment rose from 54.2 to 59.8. ISM services employment dropped from 61.6 to 55.0. Initial claims and continuing claims were both at historically low level during the month. Hence, it’s more likely for headline NFP to deliver, or even surprise to the upside. The key is again on wage growth, which will determine the chance of the fourth Fed hike this year.

          Canada employment, market expectations: –

          • Net change in employment: 21k
          • Unemployment rate: 5.9%

          Being exempted temporarily from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs is a relief for BoC. But the neverending NAFTA renegotiation is still a risk. Adding to that, if NAFTA talks fail, the tariffs will more likely come back than not. So BoC will likely stand pat until the picture because clearly. Risks will be more skewed to the downside for CAD on today’s release.

          USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3000, holding quite well above 38.2% retracement of 1.2614 to 1.3000. This 1.3000 level will be the key to watch as a break could trigger upside acceleration when rise from 1.2246 resumes.

          Australia AiG services dropped to 56.6, outlook weak for another month or two

            Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped sharply from 51.7 to 45.6 in August. That’s the lowest level since September 2020. Looking at some details, sales dropped -13.2 to 40.0. Employment rose 2.4 to 53.4. New orders dropped -9.3 to 47.4. Supplier deliveries dropped -1.3 to 44.0. Finished stocks dropped -9.3 to 37.7. Input prices dropped -2.6 to 71.5. Selling prices dropped -11.4 to 55.3.

            Ai Group Chief Executive, Innes Willox, said: “Increased COVID-19 cases and the lockdowns aimed at constraining the spread of the virus saw the performance of the services sector slump in August… With lockdowns in Victoria, the ACT and NSW set to continue this month and with new orders down on previous levels, the immediate outlook is for another weak month or two. In the meantime, a lot hinges on the healthy supply of vaccines, success in overcoming hesitancy about vaccination and clear and convincing leadership from across the National Cabinet.”

            Full release here.

            BoE Ramsden: CPI inflation remains much too high

              BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said yesterday, “CPI inflation has begun to fall significantly but remains much too high. The Monetary Policy Committee has consistently stressed that monetary policy decisions will address the risk of more persistent strength in domestic wage and price settling.”

              He went on to warn, “If there is evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”

              Ramsden also mentioned BoE’s efforts in reducing its holdings of gilts and corporate bonds, which he expects to decrease by a total of GBP 100B by October. However, he pointed out that the central bank has almost completely run off its portfolio of corporate debt, possibly paving way for it to sell more government bonds.

              In light of these factors, Ramsden stated, “These factors support a carefully considered increase in the pace of reduction in the stock of gilts in the 12 months ahead.” However, he also stressed caution, noting, “I emphasize careful — like the MPC, I want Quantitative Tightening (QT) to set a gradual and predictable pace for unwind and to let it operate in the background, after all.”

              Singapore expects sharper contraction after circuit breaker extension

                Singapore’s Trade and Industry minister Chan Chun Sing said today that, the country is “very likely” to see a sharper contraction in the economy due to coronavirus pandemic. He said, “we are really concerned that worldwide, this is going to lead to a more serious problem than many had anticipated just a month ago”.

                GDP already experienced -10.6% annualized contraction in Q1, the worst in a decade. Back in March, the government forecast a contraction of 1-4% this year. However, coronavirus spread worsened this month, as infections surged from around just 1000 to over 10000. The government decided to extend the so-called “circuit-breaker” coronavirus containment measures by four weeks until June 1. Chan said he hoped to “progressively open” in a months time.

                Separately, Citigroup said earlier this week that the Singaporean economy would contract by -8.5% this year after the “circuit breaker” extension. “The circuit breaker would cause close to 25%-30% of GDP to come to a standstill, with every month of extension further reducing 2020 GDP by 2% to 2.5%,” Citi’s economists wrote in a report. “The technical rebound after the lifting of the circuit breaker on 1st Jun will be capped by continued social distancing and only gradual recovery in exports.”

                China official PMI manufacturing rose to 51.9 as part of short-term fluctuation

                  The China official PMI manufacturing rose to 51.9 in May, up from 51.4, and beat expectation of 51.4. PMI non-manufacturing rose to 54.9, up from 54.8 and beat expectation of 54.8.

                  In the release, contributing analyst Zhang Liqun noted that the slight increase in PMI was just “short-term fluctuation” and carries “no trend significance”. The rise in export orders showed there is no chance in the growing trend. Rise in purchase prices and ex-factory prices suggested that the decline in PPI could be coming to an end. In short, the data suggested that the economy continued to grow steadily in May.

                  US Ross: Tariff delays not quid pro quo with China

                    US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC that the tariff delay decision were not a trade ‘quid pro quo’ with China. He referred to the delay in 10% tariffs on some Chinese imports until December 15. Instead, it’s just because “nobody wants to take any chance of disrupting the Christmas season”.

                    Ross added that “we’ve been doing analysis since the hearings were announced by the USTR”. And, “even though they were only announced as being imposed recently, the analytical work began well before that.”

                    China Xi pledged reform and open up markets, with no specifics

                      At the 40th anniversary of market liberalization, Chinese President Xi Jinping used one and a half hour to delivered some high level promises but failed to deliver any specifics. He said “we must, unswervingly, reinforce the development of the state economy while, unswervingly, encouraging, supporting and guiding the development of the non-state economy”.

                      He added that “Every step of reform and opening up is not easy. In the future, we will be inevitably faced with all sorts of risks and challenges, and even unimaginable tempestuous storms.” But he also emphasized that “opening brings progress while closure leads to backwardness.”

                      UK given “medium” Brexit delay while EU urges not to waste this time

                        EU agreed to give UK flexible Brexit extension at the special European Council meeting on Wednesday. The extension should last “only as long as necessary and, in any event, no longer than October 31 2019”. If the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be ratified by then, Brexit will take place on November 1. During the extension, UK remains a EU remember with full right, and has a right to revoke Article 50 at any time.

                        In the statement, EU emphasized that “the extension cannot be allowed to undermine the regular functioning of the Union and its institutions.” UK must hold European Parliament elections if it’s still a EU member on May 23-26, or Brexit will happen on June 1. Also, EU reiterated there will be no renegotiations. And, the extension “cannot be used to start negotiations on the future relationship”. Though, EU is open to reconsider the Political Declaration.

                        In the post summit press conference, European Council President Donald Tusk said “this extension is as flexible as I expected, and a little bit shorter than I expected, but it’s still enough to find the best possible solution.” He urged UK “please don’t waste this time”.

                        German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “We looked at the matter and decided to shift the date to October. We want an orderly exit of Great Britain and an orderly exit of Great Britain can be best ensured if we give it some time”. And, “the decisive point was when will the British parliament consent to the withdrawal agreement and we made it clear that that exit agreement applies and will not be changed”.

                        French President Emmanuel Macron said: “It’s true that the majority was more in favor of a very long extension. But it was not logical in my view, and above all, it was neither good for us, nor for the UK.” And, “I take responsibility for this position, I think it’s for the collective good.”

                        Fed Harker not ready to make a final decision on the next hike

                          Philadelphia Fed’s Harker said he’s “not ready to make a final decision” on the next rate hike yet.

                          “If we start to see demand soften — and we are seeing some signs that demand is starting to soften in certain sectors of the economy. And if it’s softening quicker than I anticipate, then it may be appropriate to go with a 50,” he added. “If it’s not, then it’s probably appropriate to go with the 75. But let’s see how the data turns out in the next few weeks.”

                          “I think we’ve been very clear that we need to move to a restrictive stance,” he said. “How we get there is dependent on the data. So we can’t be that precise, [with] what we’re going to be doing in September or December right now. I mean, the data will dictate that.”

                          Into US session: Dollar fails to hold gains, Yen stays firm

                            Entering into US session, Dollar turned weak earlier today and failed to sustain gains. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen is holding broadly firm. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar turned the corner. Much focus will be on US treasury yields and some solid gain there is needed to give the greenback some support. Otherwise, recent correction will likely continue with some more downside potential in the greenback.

                            In other markets, Europe indices are trading generally higher, with DAX up 1.34%, CAC up 0.81% and FTSE up 0.81% at the time of writing. That follows the strong rally in Asian equities. China Shanghai Composite jumped 1.61% to 2905.56 as boosted by the governments stimulus policies. While the announce measures are just fine-tunings and are hardly anything dramatic, that’s seen as a sign of the director where the Chinese government is heading towards. That is do more to support growth.

                            The SSE’s rebound is set to extend to 55 day EMA (now at 2944.64) and above. But for now, we’re seeing no reason for it to regain 3000 handle.

                            Nikkei also rose 0.51% to close at 22510.48 and pared back much of Monday’s loss. However, the day high was seen at the open at 22555.05 and there was no follow through momentum back then. Overall strength of support from the 55 day EMA is rather weak. We’ll keep monitor this level, which will decide whether Nikkei would head for test on 21462.94 support before an upside breakout.

                            UK unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in Nov, claimant count rose only 7k in Dec

                              In the three months to November, UK unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, below expectation of 5.1%. That was 1.2% higher than a year ago, and 0.6% higher than the previous quarter. 5% was also the highest level since early 2016.

                              Though, totally hours worked showed continued signs of recovery, up 89m, or 10%, to 979.9m hours. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 3.6% 3moy, versus expectation of 3.0% 3moy. Average earnings including bonus rose 3.6% 3moy, also above expectation of 2.8% 3moy.

                              UK claimant count rose just 7k in December, must lower than expectation of 47.5k. Still, at 2.6m, the total is 113.2%, or 1.4m, above March 2020’s level.

                              Full release here.

                               

                              RBA Bullock signals readiness to hike again if inflation outlook revised up

                                RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized the central bank’s ongoing commitment to stabilizing inflation and promoting job growth in her speech today. While the Governor acknowledged the possibility of maintaining the current cash rate level to achieve these objectives, she did not shy away from highlighting potential challenges. “There are risks that could see inflation return to target more slowly than currently forecast,” she noted.

                                In response to the potential of inflationary pressures, Bullock assured that the Board remains vigilant: “The Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation.”

                                As the Board gears up for its subsequent gathering, Bullock emphasized the significance of upcoming data. She mentioned, “The Board will receive several pieces of information before its next meeting that will be important for this assessment.”

                                She elaborated on the forthcoming procedures, revealing, “This includes a full update of the staff’s forecasts. We will reconsider the outlook for the economy in light of incoming information and will have opportunities to explain our assessment in the media release and Statement on Monetary Policy that will follow the November meeting.”

                                BoJ Harada: If weak economy deteriorates, should strengthen easing without delay

                                  BoJ dove Yutaka Harada said today that “the economy has been weak recently, and the same can be said about prices”. Also, “there’s a risk the current sluggishness observed in prices will spill over to inflation expectations, further delaying a pick-up in inflation.” In addition, “the impact of the consumption tax hike scheduled for October this year also is a concern.”

                                  Harada warned “if the economy deteriorates to the extent that achieving our price target in the long-term becomes difficult, it’s necessary to strengthen monetary easing without delay.” He also dismiss claims that the ultra-loose monetary policy hurts banks’ profits. He said “the deterioration of banks’ profitability is actually caused by a structural problem, which is that they are accumulating deposits despite a lack of borrowers.”

                                  Released from Japan, trade surplus narrowed to JPY 60.4B in April. Exports dropped -2.4% yoy while imports rose 6.4% yoy. In seasonally adjusted terms, trade deficit narrowed to JPY -110.9B.Exports rose 0.6% while imports dropped -0.1%. Machine orders rose 3.8% mom in March, above expectation of 0.0% yo.

                                  Follow up on AUD/CAD long strategy

                                    Following up on AUD/CAD long strategy here. The cross rose as expected and hit as high as 0.9924 so far today. There is still a bit of distance from our target at 61.8% retracement of 1.0241 to 0.9553 at 1.0066.

                                    Looking at the action bias table, 6H action bias remains consistently upside blue, which support our bullish trade. The question is, from H action bias, there seems to be not enough upside momentum as AUD/CAD comes out of a consolidation.

                                    So, we’d hold the long position, with target still at 1.0066, but raise the stop to 0.9860, slightly below 0.9862 support. This is for locking in some profits if the current rise is a false break.

                                     

                                    Canada Trudeau announced retaliation on CAD16.6b of US imports.

                                      Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau criticized Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs as “totally unacceptable” and announced retaliatory tariffs on CAD 16.6b in US imports.  A 15-day consultation period immediately began the tariffs will come into effect on July 1. There are two list of goods, one list that will be subject to a 25% tariff; a second list that will be subject to a 10% tariff. The details of the goods can be found here.

                                      Trudeau emphasized that “Americans remain our partners, our allies and our friends” and “the American people are not the target” of the retaliation measures. He pledged to  continue to make arguments based on logic and common sense” and hoped that “eventually they will prevail against an administration that doesn’t always align itself around those principles.”

                                      Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, also said that the unilateral trade restrictions by the US are “in violation of NAFTA and WTO trade rules”. And Canada will launch dispute settlement proceedings under  NAFTA Chapter 20 and WTO Dispute Settlement. Freeland also pledged to “closely collaborate with like-minded WTO members, including the European Union” to challenge the “illegal and counterproductive US measures at the WTO. Statement can be found here.

                                      BoE Mann: Premature to judge how mini-budget affect monetary policy trajectory

                                        BoE MPC member Catherine Mann said yesterday that it’s “premature” to judge the extent of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’s budget is going to affect “monetary policy trajectory decisions”.

                                        “I people don’t have to spend their money on heating their apartments, or homes, they are now we’re in a position to redirect some of that spending on to other goods and services,” she added. “So it’s that ability to redirect expenditures on goods and services, that becomes an important consideration for the monetary policy trajectory.”

                                        Mann also expressed her concern that inflation expectations are “drifting” away from BoE’s anchor. “I do see increasingly embedded inflation, I do see inflation expectations drifting, I do see a sterling depreciation spillover and I do see daylight between real incomes and real consumption possibilities,” she said.

                                        WTI mildly higher, eyeing 47.66 temp top for rally resumption

                                          WTI crude oil trades mildly higher today with focus now back on 47.66 temporary top. Break will resume rise from for 50 handle and above. We’re looking at a long term resistance in 55 month EMA at 52.79 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 44.87 will indicate short term topping. Deeper pull back could then be seen to 55 day EMA at 42.49.