Silver and Gold find some footing below 61.8% retracement level

    Silver edged lower to 25.53 earlier today but appears to have found some buying below 61.8% retracement of 23.76 to 28.73 at 25.65. Downside momentum also eased as seen in 4 hour MACD. Focus is back on 26.59 minor resistance. Break there will bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 26.69) and above.

    Overall, Silver is seen as extending consolidation pattern from 29.84 (made in Aug 2020). A break of 23.76 support cannot be ruled out for the moment. But we’re not expecting a break next support level at 21.88.

    Similarly, Gold also recovered after edging lower to 1760.71 earlier today. Downside momentum also diminished as seen in 4 hour MACD. Focus is back on 1803.20 minor resistance. Break there will bring stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1833.62) and above.

    Similar to the view on Silver, Gold is seen as in consolidation from 2074.85 (made in Aug 2020). Even in case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 1676.65 to bring rebound.

    CAD/JPY in downward correction, to draw support from 85/86 zone

      Yen crosses take another dive today as Asian markets are under broad based selling pressure, following the poor close in US last week. In particular, commodity currencies are clearly the weakest ones.

      CAD/JPY’s sharp fall is in line with the developments in both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. At this point, we’re viewing the fall from 91.16 short term top as correcting the rise from 77.91 to 91.16 only. Hence, we’d expect strong support between 85.40 support and 38.2% retracement at 86.09 to contain downside and bring rebound.

      However, it should also be noted that CAD/JPY was just rejected by 91.62 long term resistance (2017 high). Sustained break of 85.40 will argue that it’s at least correcting the whole up trend from 73.80. More importantly, that would raise the chance that the whole pattern from 74.80 has completed with three waves to 91.16. The implication would be rather bearish, even though the odds for such case is rather low for now.

      ECB governing council held first in-person meeting a more than a year

        ECB Governing Council held the first in-person meeting in more than a year over the weekend and carried out in-depth discussion about the strategy review. The topics addressed include “the definition and measurement of price stability, the underlying analytical framework, the medium-term orientation, the role of climate change in formulating monetary policy, and the modernisation of policy communication.”

        “It was good to meet again in-person and the hilly Taunus countryside was ideal to reconnect after months of only digital meetings”, ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said. “I am glad we were able to have in-depth discussions and we made good progress in shaping the concrete features of our future monetary policy strategy at our retreat.”

        Full statement here.

        Australia retail sales rose only 0.1% mom in May, dragged by Victoria lockdown

          Australia retail sales rose 0.1% mom in May, well below expectation of 0.7% mom. Comparing to a year ago, sales rose 7.4% yoy.

          Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said: “There were mixed results across the industries and states and territories, with COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria impacting the May result. Victoria fell 1.5 per cent as the state entered its fourth lockdown on May 28 with trade restricted for physical stores.”

          Full release here.

          CHF/JPY in bearish reversal with this week’s selloff?

            In addition to the strong rally in Dollar and Yen this week, the selloff in Swiss Franc is worth a mention. In particular, the risk of bearish reversal in CHF/JPY is increasing. That’s put into context that 122.74 short term top was already in proximity to a key long term level at 100% projection of 101.66 to 118.59 from 106.71 at 123.64.

            Focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 113.73 to 112.74 at 119.29. Rebound from this level will at least maintain some medium term bullishness for another rise through 122.74 at a later stage. However, firm break of 119.29 will add to the case that whole pattern from 101.66 has completed. Focus would then be turned to 55 week EMA (now at 116.89) for confirmation.

            UK retail sales dropped -1.4% mom in May, missed expectations

              UK retail sales dropped -1.4% mom in volume term in May, below expectation of 1.5% mom rise. Sales on volume was still 9.1% higher than in February 2020 before the pandemic. Excluding automotive fuel, sales was down -2.1% mom, below expectation of 4.2% mom rise. Sales excluding automotive fuel was 10.6% above pre-pandemic level.

              Full release here.

              BoJ stands pat, extends pandemic relief program

                BoJ announced no change in monetary policy as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short term interest rate target is held at -0.10%. BoJ will continue to buy JGBs, without upper limit, to keep 10-year JGB yields at around 0%. The decision was made by 7-1 majority vote with 1 abstention. Goushi Kataoka dissented as usual, pushing for strengthening easing. Takako Masai abstained.

                The board also voted with 8-0 majority vote, with 1 abstention, to extend the duration of the Special Program to Support Financing in Response to the Novel Coronavirus by 6 months until the end of March 2022.

                BOJ also pledges to “closely monitor” in the impact of COVID-19, and “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary”. Also, it “expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels”.

                Full statement here.

                AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY in correction, heading to 80.94 and 75.84 respectively

                  Both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY experienced deep selloff since yesterday, and the developments should confirm that extended correction is underway. AUD/JPY’s fall from 85.78 is seen as correcting the rise from 73.12 to 85.78 only at this point. Deeper decline is expected as long as 83.95 support holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 73.12 to 85.78 at 80.94. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 80.94 would raise the chance that it’s a larger scale correction to whole up trend from 59.85. Further fall could be seen back into 73.12/78.44 support zone in this bearish case.

                  Similarly, NZD/JPY is seen as correcting the rise from 68.86 to 80.17. Deeper fall is expected as long as 78.06 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 68.86 to 80.17 at 75.84. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 75.84 would argue that it’s in a larger scale correction to whole up trend from 59.49. Further decline could then be seen back into 68.86/71.66 support zone in this bearish case.

                  Bundesbank Weidmann: Hopefully crisis-related special measures will soon be reduced

                    Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told newspaper Handelsblatt, “with further progress in coping with the pandemic, hopefully the crisis-related special measures will soon be reduced.”

                    “When the emergency for which the PEPP was created is over, it must be ended,” he added.

                    Weidmann also rejected the idea that some PEPP’s flexibility could be transferred to the standing APP after PEPP ends. “When this exceptional situation is over, such a high degree of flexibility is no longer appropriate,” he said.

                    US initial jobless claims rose to 412k, continuing claims at 3.5m

                      US initial jobless claims rose 37k to 412k in the week ending June 12, above expectation of 360k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -8k to 395k lowest since March 14, 2020.

                      Continuing claims rose 1k to 3518k in the week ending June 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -55k to 3608k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                      Full release here.

                      Gold pressing 1800 on downside acceleration, more decline ahead

                        Gold’s decline accelerates on broad based Dollar strength, and it’s now pressing 1800 handle. The strong break of 55 day EMA dampens our original bullish view. That is, rise from 1676.65 and fall from 1916.30 might both be legs of the consolidation pattern from 2075.18 only, which is still unfolding.

                        Deeper decline would now be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1676.65 to 1916.30 at 1768.19. Sustained break there will bring further fall to 1676.65 and below, to extend the pattern from 2075.18. Also, for now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1855.30 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

                        Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.0% yoy in May, EU at 2.3% yoy

                          Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.0% yoy in May, up from April’s 1.6% yoy. Highest contribution came from energy (+1.19 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.45 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.19 pp) and food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.15 pp).

                          EU CPI was finalized at 2.3% yoy, up from April’s 2.0% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.2%), Malta (0.2%) and Portugal (0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (5.3%), Poland (4.6%) and Luxembourg (4.0%). Compared with April, annual inflation fell in four Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-two.

                          Full release here.

                          ECB Lane: From September there’s going to be a lot of things happening

                            ECB chief economist Philip Lane told Bloomberg TV that it’s “unnecessary and premature” to talk about tapering the asset purchase program.

                            “We know from September there’s going to be a lot of things happening,” he added. “It’s not a turn on a dime situation where we’re going to know everything at a point in time, but of course we’ll know a lot more over the summer.”

                            “Going back to September, we will have new forecasts, but remember we have a very strong forecast for quarter three, but quarter three is not over until the end of September,” he added. “We’re not necessarily going to have every piece of hard data you want to have going into the September meeting.”

                            SNB kept rate at -0.75%, upgrades GDP and inflation forecasts

                              SNB kept policy rate and interest on sight deposits at -0.75% as widely expected. It remains “willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary”. It reiterated that the Swiss franc is “highly valued”. The “expansionary monetary policy provides favourable financing conditions, contributes to an appropriate supply of credit and liquidity to the economy, and counters upward pressure on the Swiss franc.”

                              The new condition inflation forecasts are revised slightly higher to 0.4% in 2021 (from 0.2%), 0.6% in 2022 (from 0.4%) and 0.6% in 2023 (from 0.5%). 2021 GDP forecast was also revised up to 3.5%, “primarily attributable to the lower-than-expected decline in GDP and the first quarter”. GDP is “likely to return to its pre-crisis level by the middle of the year”.

                              Full statement here.

                              Australia employment grew 115.2k in May, unemployment drop to pre-pandemic 5.1%

                                Australia employment rose 115.2k in May, above expectation of 30.0k. Full time jobs grew 97.5k. Part-time jobs rose 17.7k. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%, down from 5.5%, much better than expectation of of 5.5%. Participation rate also rose 0.3% to 66.2%.

                                Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said May was the seventh consecutive monthly fall in the unemployment rate. “The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent, which was below March 2020 (5.3 per cent) and back to the level in February 2020 (5.1 per cent). The declining unemployment rate continues to align with the strong increases in job vacancies”.

                                Full release here.

                                New Zealand GDP grew 1.6% qoq in Q1, broad based growth

                                  New Zealand GDP grew 1.6% qoq in Q1, much stronger than expectation of 0.5% qoq. Services industries rose 1.1% qoq. Goods producing industries rose 2.4% qoq. Primary industries rose 0.3% qoq. GDP per capita rose 1.5% qoq.

                                  “After an easing of economic activity in the December quarter, we’ve seen broad-based growth in the first quarter of 2021. This is despite Auckland being in alert level 3 lockdown for 10 days, and continued border restrictions,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said.

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoC Macklem: A complete recovery will still take some time

                                    BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told a Senate Committee yesterday that “economy recovery is making good progress”. But “a complete recovery will still take some time”. He reiterated that BoC “remains steadfast in its commitment to support Canadian households and businesses through the full length of the recovery”.

                                    A “complete recovery” means a “healthy job market”, while companies are “investing to seize new business opportunities. Also, households and businesses can “count on inflation being sustainably at our 2 percent target”.

                                    Macklem also reiterated: ‘Looking ahead, further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by our ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the economic recovery. If the recovery evolves in line with or stronger than our latest projection, the economy won’t need as much QE stimulus over time.”

                                    Full statement here.

                                    DOW dropped after hawkish Fed, but no threat to up trend yet

                                      US stocks tumbled overnight after much more hawkish than expected FOMC projections. But the three major indices managed to pare back much of earlier losses to close just slightly lower. DOW lost -0.77%, S&P 500 dropped -0.54%, while NASDAQ declined -0.24%.

                                      As for DOW, it’s still holding on to 55 day EMA, and stay well inside the medium term rising channel. Thus, there is no threat to the up trend for the moment. Another rise through 35091.56 is still in favor. But the next few days will be crucial on whether selloff could gather momentum. Firm break of the channel support would likely bring a correction to whole rise from 26143.77, and target 38.2% retracement at 31673.50.

                                      10-year yield also jumped notably and closed up 0.070 to 1.569. Price actions from 1.765 high are clearly corrective and medium term up trend is expected to resume at a later stage. But the timing of an upside breakout would very much depend on development in stocks and upcoming economic data.

                                      Dollar jumps as FOMC members pull ahead rate hike projections

                                        Dollar jumps as Fed raised median federal funds rate projection in 2023 to 0.6%, from 0.1%. That is, there could be two rate hikes by the end of 2023. Also, seven FOMC members penciled in a rate hike or more in 2022, comparing to four in March. 13 members expected at least one hike by 2023, comparing the just seven in March.

                                        Full statement here.

                                        Full projections here.

                                        EUR/USD is now eyeing 1.1985 support next, as fall from 1.2265 accelerates downwards.

                                        Canada CPI rose to 3.6% yoy in May, highest since 2011

                                          Canada CPI accelerated to 3.6% yoy in May, up from 3.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.5% yoy. That’s the largest increase since May 2011. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 2.5% yoy. Looking at some details, prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Shelter prices rose 4.2% yoy, largest since September 2008. Durable goods prices rose 4.4% yoy, largest since 1989.

                                          CPI common rose to 1.8% yoy, up from 1.7% yoy, matched expectations. CPI median rose to 2.4% yoy, up from 2.3% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose to 2.7% yoy, up from 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 2.4% yoy.

                                          Full release here.