Eurozone consumers are dialing back their inflation expectations, according to the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey for June. Median one-year inflation expectations fell from 2.8% to 2.6%, fully reversing the uptick seen in March and April. Longer-term expectations remained anchored, with three-year and five-year outlooks steady at 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, the latter unchanged for seven consecutive months.

Household sentiment on spending also weakened. Expected nominal spending growth dropped to 3.2% in June, down from 3.5% in May and 3.7% in April. The continued decline suggests rising caution among consumers, likely driven by lingering geopolitical uncertainty, uneven wage growth, and lower perceived price pressures ahead.

On growth, expectations became slightly less negative. Median expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months improved to -1.0% from -1.1% in May and -1.9% in April. Still, households broadly expect economic contraction, reflecting the Eurozone’s fragile recovery and ongoing concerns around trade, manufacturing, and domestic demand.

Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey release here.

Slovak ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir pushed back against expectations of a September rate cut, stating he doesn’t foresee any data “significant enough” to warrant action in the near term. Writing in a blog post, Kazimir, one of the more hawkish voices on the Council, emphasized that only clear signs like “unravelling in the labour market” would prompt him to support another cut.

Kazimir acknowledged that the US–EU trade deal brings a degree of stability, noting it “can help to ease concerns and regain confidence,” but cautioned that it’s too soon to judge its inflationary implications. He added that while inflation may dip below target in the coming year, he sees “no looming spectre of a sustained undershooting,” reinforcing his preference to wait and assess.

French and Finnish ECB officials are urging caution but not complacency as the central bank navigates an increasingly uncertain global environment. Speaking today, François Villeroy de Galhau said growth risks remain “tilted to the downside” and emphasized that “agile pragmatism in light of data and forecasts is of the essence.”

Villeroy also noted that US tariffs—though still not fully defined—are unlikely to spark inflation to rise in the Eurozone. Instead, the recent appreciation of Euro is already exerting a “significant disinflationary effect,” which could aid in anchoring inflation near the ECB’s 2% target.

Separately, Finnish policymaker Olli Rehn echoed the theme of strategic patience, warning that while caution is warranted, the ECB should avoid “waiting in vain.” He stressed the high “option value of waiting.”

The ECB’s Q3 Survey of Professional Forecasters showed that headline inflation expectations have been revised down across the medium term. HICP inflation is now projected at 2.0% for 2025 (down from 2.2%) and 1.8% for 2026 (down from 2.0%), while 2027 remains unchanged at 2.0%. Core HICP inflation for 2025 is unchanged at 2.3%, but was revised down from 2.1% to 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027.

Respondents cited tariffs as having a small downward effect on inflation in the short term, subtracting roughly -0.06 percentage points from the HICP in both 2025 and 2026, but anticipated no lasting impact beyond that.

On growth, forecasters revised up their 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage points, trimmed 2026 by 0.1 points, and left 2027 unchanged at 1.4%.

Full ECB SPF release here.

Latvian ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said there is now “value in holding rates at the current levels,” signaling that the era of obvious rate hikes or cuts is over. Speaking in an interview, the central banker stressed that a “steady-hand policy is appropriate,” suggesting little urgency for additional easing from the ECB in the near term.

Kazaks further emphasized that unless the Eurozone economy suffers a major blow, there’s limited justification for lowering interest rates. His stance comes after ECB President Christine Lagarde also struck a cautious tone following yesterday’s decision to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%.

Separately, Lithuanian Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus noted “inflation is expected to stay at 2% level in the medium term.”

The ECB held its deposit rate steady at 2.00% today, as expected, pausing its easing cycle after a string of cuts since June 2024. In its statement, the central bank reiterated that it will remain “data-dependent” and take a “meeting-by-meeting”. It emphasized that approach, the Governing Council is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”.

Policymakers noted that incoming data is “broadly in line” with prior assessments, with domestic price pressures continuing to ease and wage growth slowing. However, the ECB flagged “exceptionally uncertain” global conditions, citing persistent trade disputes as a key risk.

Full ECB statement here.