UK economic activity weakened in November, with the Composite PMI falling from 51.8 to 49.9, its first contraction in 13 months. Manufacturing PMI declined to a 9-month low of 48.6, down from 49.9, while Services PMI hit a 13-month low at 50.0, down from 52.0.
Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that businesses are reporting falling output and employment cuts for the second consecutive month. Post-budget sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with optimism now at its lowest since late 2022. Companies have expressed significant concern over the announced increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.
The November data suggest the economy is contracting modestly, with GDP estimated to decline at a quarterly rate of -0.1%. Williamson warned of the potential for further job losses unless sentiment improves.
On the inflation front, selling price growth slowed to its lowest post-pandemic rate, but elevated wage pressures in services remain a challenge, likely tempering the case for aggressive rate cuts by BoE.
Canada retail sales rises 0.4% mom in Sep, 0.7% mom in Oct
Canada’s retail sales rose by 0.4% mom in September to CAD 66.9B, slightly above market expectations of a 0.3% mom increase. Gains were observed in six out of nine subsectors, with food and beverage retailers leading the growth.
Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and motor vehicle-related sectors, surged by a robust 1.4% mom, highlighting strength in consumer discretionary spending.
For Q3, retail sales climbed 0.9%, with a 1.3% increase in volume terms, suggesting solid economic activity during the period.
The advance estimate for October indicates a further 0.7% mom rise, reinforcing signs of resilience in consumer demand.
Full Canada’s retail sales release here.