New York Fed President John Williams said, “assuming the economy continues to improve as I anticipate, a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Williams expected the economy to grow between 5.5% to 6% this year. Inflation will drop back to 2% next year.
“There is still a long way to go before reaching maximum employment,” Williams said. “And over time it should become clearer whether we have reached 2 percent inflation on a sustained basis.”
In a speech, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said some MPC members put “more emphasis on the continuing shortfall in the level of GDP relative to pre-Covid”. Others “emphasized the continuing direction of travel towards closing that gap and the evidence of cost pressures accompanying the closing”.
However, “all of this group were of the view that the stimulus to monetary policy enacted in response to Covid would need to start to unwind at some point, that unwind should be enacted by an increase in Bank Rate, and if appropriate would not need to wait for the end of the current asset purchase programme.”
US durable goods orders rose 1.8% mom to USD 263.5B in August, well above expectation of 0.6% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.4% mom. Transportation equipment rose 5.5% mom to USD 80.8B.
In a speech, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, for the balance sheet, the economy as being close to meeting the “substantial further progress” standard for beginning to taper asset purchases. “If the flow of employment improvements continues, it seems likely that those conditions will be met soon and tapering can commence,” he added.
On inflation, Evans said, “long-run inflation expectations are still likely somewhat below target”, as ” inflation break-even rates in financial markets over the five- to ten-year horizon are still below the levels we saw in 2012 and 2013—a period when they were arguably better aligned with 2 percent PCE inflation.” And, “a ten-year nominal Treasury rate in the range we’ve seen recently simply can’t have a whole lot of expectations of long-run inflation built into it.”
“Taken altogether, I am more uneasy about us not generating enough inflation in 2023 and 2024 than the possibility that we will be living with too much,” he said. “My concern is that when the Covid distress ultimately recedes broadly around the world, we will not have been freed from the downward bias on inflation imparted by the ELB.”
In the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, ” it is evident that the economic recovery in the euro area is increasingly advanced”. Policymakers expected “continued strong growth” in H2, “enabling euro area output to exceed its pre-pandemic level by the end of the year”. GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.0% in 2021, then 4.6% in 2022, and 2.21% in 2023. Risks to growth are “broadly balanced”.
Eurozone inflation, at 3% in August, is expected to “rise further this autumn”. But Lagarde reiterated, “we continue to view this upswing as largely temporary”. ECB’s projections foresee annual inflation at 2.2% in 2021, 1.7% in 2022, and 1.5% in 2023. There are factors that could lead to stronger price pressures than expected, inflation shortages of materials and equipment, and higher than anticipated wage demands. She said, “but we are seeing limited signs of this risk so far, which means that our baseline scenario continues to foresee inflation remaining below our target over the medium term.
In the monthly report, Bundesbank said German economy continued recovery at a “faster pace” in summer. economic output is “likely to grow more stronger in the third quarter than in Spring”. But, due to supply-side difficulties, output had not reached pre-pandemic level yet.
Production level “continued to lag behind strong demand” because of supply bottlenecks. In July, demand for industrial productions already exceeded pre-pandemic level by a whopping 18%. But production remained -3.5% below the pre-pandemic levels. Labor market “recovered extraordinarily strongly since June” and unemployment is likely to continue to fall sharply in the next three months.
On inflation, Bundesbank said, “rates between 4 percent and 5 percent are temporarily possible from September until the end of the year”. One reason for this is the base effect of the temporary VAT reduction in the previous year. The economists assume that inflation will decrease noticeably at the beginning of 2022, but will still be over 2 percent by the middle of the year.
BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda admitted, “it’s true Japan’s economy has been held back by the successive waves of COVID-19.” “While corporate funding conditions have improved from a while ago, those of firms offering face-to-face services remain severe,” he added.
“Given high uncertainty over the outlook due to the spread of the Delta variant, the BOJ must continue to focus on responding to the pandemic for the time being,” he said.
Meanwhile, Kuroda is not concerned about the supply shortages that manufacturers are facing. “This will only be transitory, and from a somewhat long-term perspective, exports and production are expected to continue on an increasing trend, partly supported by the restocking of inventories and a recovery in production from the decline brought about by the supply-side constraints,” he said.
Gold’s rebound attempt last week once again faltered after rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA. Yet, it’s still resiliently holding on to 61.8% retracement of 1682.60 to 1833.79 at 1740.35. The price structure of the fall from 1833.79 is slightly favoring the case that it’s just a corrective move.
Firm break of 1787.02 will argue that such pull back has completed and bring stronger rise back to retest 1833.79/97 structural resistance zone. Such development would be in line with the case that whole correction from 2074.84 has completed after drawing support from long term fibonacci level of 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1681.92. However, sustained trading below 1740.35 would put focus back to this 1681.92 key fibonacci support level.
WTI crude oil extends near term rally in Asians session and breaches 75 handle. Oil price has been lifted since late August, on improving demand as well as supply tightness. On the one hand, demand is set to picking up with easing of pandemic restrictions, and more importantly, border restrictions. Additionally, surging gas prices are also driving oil higher. On the other hand, OPEC+ seems to be lagging behind the demand rebound, due to under-investment during the pandemic as well as maintenance delays. The question is whether WTI could power through 76.38 high made back in July, and that remains to be seen.
Riding on last week’s rally in oil prices and resilient risk appetite, CAD/JPY is also extending the rebound from 84.88. 87.87 resistance is now an immediate focus. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 91.16 has completed at 84.65 already. Break of 88.44 resistance will affirm this case and pave the way to retest 91.16 high. More importantly, with 38.2% retracement of 73.80 to 91.16 at 84.52 well defended, the medium term up trend from 73.80 could be ready to resume in this bullish scenario.
Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped from 99.6 to 98.8 in September, below expectation of 100.4. That’s also the third decline in a row. Current Assessment index dropped from 101.4 to 100.4, below expectation of 100.8. Expectations index dropped form 97.5 to 97.3, below expectation of 100.0.
Looking at some more details, manufacturing dropped sharply from 24.2 to 20.0. Services rose from 17.8 to 19.1. Trade ticked lower from 9.0 to 8.9. Construction rose from 8.1 to 10.9.
Ifo said: “Companies were less satisfied with their current business. They were also more skeptical about the coming months. Problems in the procurement of raw materials and intermediate products are putting the brakes on the German economy. Manufacturing is experiencing a bottleneck recession.”
In a CNBC interview, ECB President Christine Lagarde said policy makers try to asses the situation “based on figures, on data, on facts”, rather than on basis of “hearsay, assumption here, price increases there.”
She noted, things have “picked up faster” for growth, inflation and employment, and it’s a “package of good news”. For prices, ECB thought “there will be a return to much more stability in the year to come because many of the causes of higher prices are temporary.”.
Japan’s PMI Manufacturing dropped from 52.7 to 51.2 in September, below expectation of 52.5. PMI Services rose from 42.9 to 47.4. PMI Composite also rose from 45.5 to 47.7.
Usamah Bhatti, economist at IHS Markit said: “The pace of decline was softer than that seen in August, as the larger services sector saw a considerable easing in the rate of contraction… Input prices across the private sector rose at the fastest pace for 13 years, with businesses attributing the rise to higher raw material, freight and staff costs amid supply shortages.”
Also from Japan, CPI core (all items ex fresh food) rose from -0.2% to 0.0% yoy in August, matched expectations. Headline CPI (all items) dropped from -0.3% yoy to -0.4% yoy. CPI core-core (all items ex fresh food and energy) improved from -0.6% yoy to -0.5% yoy.
UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped from -8 to -13 in September, with all measures down. In particular, general economic situation over the next 12 months dropped sharply from -6 to -16.
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, comments: “On the back of concerns about rising prices for fuel and food, the growth in headline inflation, tax hikes, empty shelves and the end of the furlough scheme, September sees consumers slamming on the brakes as those already in economic hardship anticipate a potential cost of living crisis.
New Zealand goods exports dropped -0.9% yoy to NZD 4.4B in August. Goods imports rose 38.0% yoy to NZD 6.5B. Trade deficit came in at record NZD -2.1B, versus expectation of NZD 110m surplus.
Exports to top trading partners were mixed, up 12% to China and 5.9% to Japan, but down -9.1% to Australia, -11% to US and -12% to EU. Imports from all top trading partners were up, from China up 40%, from EU up 42%. from Australia up 19%, from USA up 15%, and from Japan up 83%.
“This is a larger deficit than normal because of higher values for imports, particularly vehicles, continuing the trend observed over the last few months. August is also the month when we typically see lower values for dairy exports,” international trade manager Alasdair Allen said.
Canada retail sales dropped -0.6% to CAD 55.8B in July, better than expectation of -1.2% mom fall. That’s the third decrease in four months, driven by lower sales at food and beverage stores (-3.4%) and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-7.3%). Sales decreased in 5 of 11 subsectors. Based on advance estimates, sales rose 2.1% mom in August.
US initial jobless claims rose 16k to 351k in the week ending September 18, above expectation of 317k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -750 to 335.75k.
Continuing claims rose 131k to 2845k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -16k to 2804k, lowest since March 21, 2020.
BoE voted unanimously to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%. However, it voted 7-2 to keep the government bond purchase target at GBP 895B. Dave Ramsden and Michael Saunders voted to lower purchase target to GBP 860B.
In the statement, it said that since August meeting, “the pace of recovery of global activity has showed signs of slowing”, “global inflationary pressures have remained strong”, and “there are some signs that cost pressures may prove more persistent”.
BoE reiterated that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period was likely to be necessary”. Developments since August “appear to have strengthened that case”.
“The Committee will be monitoring closely the incoming evidence regarding developments in the labour market, and particularly unemployment, wider measures of slack and underlying pay pressures; the extent to which businesses pass on wage and other cost increases, as well as medium-term inflation expectations.”
UK PMI Manufacturing dropped from 60.3 to 56.3 in September, below expectation of 59.0, a 7-month low. PMI Services dropped from 55.0 to 54.6, below expectation of 55.0, a 7-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 54.8 to 54.1, also a 7-month low.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:
“The September PMI data will add to worries that the UK economy is heading towards a bout of ‘stagflation’, with growth continuing to trend lower while prices surge ever higher.
“While there are clear signs that demand is cooling since peaking in the second quarter, the survey also points to business activity being increasingly constrained by shortages of materials and labour, most notably in the manufacturing sector but also in some services firms. …
“Shortages are meanwhile driving up prices at unprecedented rates as firms pass on higher supplier charges and increases in staff pay…
“Business expectations for the year ahead are meanwhile down to their lowest since January, with concerns over both supply and demand amid the ongoing pandemic casting a shadow over prospects for the economy as we move into the autumn.”
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped from 61.5 to 58.7 in September, below expectation of 60.4, a 7-month low. PMI Services dropped from 59.0 to 56.3, below expectation of 58.4, a 4-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 59.0 to 56.1, a 5-month low.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:
“September’s flash PMI highlights an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.
“On one hand, some cooling of growth from the two-decade highs seen earlier in the summer was to be expected. On the other hand, firms have become increasingly frustrated by supply delays, shortages and ever-higher prices for inputs. Businesses, most notably in manufacturing but also now in the service sector, are being constrained as a result, often losing sales and customers.
“Concerns over high prices, stressed supply chains and the resilience of demand in the ongoing pandemic environment has consequently eroded business confidence, with expectations for the year ahead now down to the lowest since January.
“For now, the overall rate of expansion remains solid, despite slowing, but growth looks likely to weaken further in coming months if the price and supply headwinds show no signs of abating, especially if accompanied by any rise in virus cases as we head into the autumn.”
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Fed Kashkari and Bostic focus on employment
Both Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic appeared to be more concerned with getting the job market back to normal, than the higher transitory inflation.
Kashkari said yesterday, “putting Americans back to work…to me that’s our highest priority.” He also emphasized “we don’t want to overreact to short-term price movements.”
Separately, Bostic said, “without clear data demonstrating that an inflationary problem has arrived and is likely to last, we will allow labor markets to run their course, which can further our pursuit of long-run maximum employment.”