ECB revised down growth in inflation projections after easing

    ECB’s GDP growth projections are revised to 1.1% in 2019 (vs 1.2% in June), 1.2% in 2020 (vs 1.4%) and 1.4% in 2021 (unchanged).

    Eurozone’s slowdown in growth mainly reflects “prevailing weakness of international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties which are particularly affecting the euro area manufacturing sector.” But services and construction show “ongoing resilience. Risk to growth “remain tilted to the downside” due to “prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.”

    HICP inflation projections are revised down over the whole projection horizon, “reflecting lower energy prices and the weaker growth environment.” HICP projections are at 1.2% in 2019 (vs 1.3% in June), 1.0% in 2020 (vs 1.4%), 1.4% in 2021 (vs 1.6%).

    Australia AiG manufacturing dropped to 50.4, but encouraged by rise in new orders

      Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -0.8 to 50.4 in October. That’s the fourth consecutive month of decline and lowest reading since September 2020. Looking at some details, production dropped -5.3 to 47.8. Employment rose 0.9 to 48.0. New orders rose 6.3 to 58.3. Exports dropped -5.8 to 46.1. Input prices rose 3.7 to 81.8. Selling prices dropped -0.8 to 63.9. Average wages rose 10.8 to 63.7.

      Ai Group Chief Executive Innes Willox said: “Although restrictions began to be eased, vaccination rates rose and the country edged towards a living with COVID approach, the year-long run of improving manufacturing performance was put on hold in October…. Although October was nothing to write home about, manufacturers will be encouraged by the sharp lift in new orders received and by the further progress towards removing COVID restrictions.

      Full release here.

      Australian Dollar recovers broadly on ScoMo win, but upside limited

        Australian Dollar recovers broadly today as Treasurer Scott Morrison becomes the next Prime Minister, winning a three way race with Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and former Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton after Malcolm Turnbull was ousted. That’s the sixth change in prime ministership in a less than a decade.

        ScoMo, as Morrison has come to be known, is seen as the most market-friendly option. In particular, as under him as Treasurer, there was substantial improvement in budget balance in Australia.

        However, the rebound is limited as the markets are probably looking through to next year’s general election already. Bigger uncertainty lies ahead as there is a good chance of a Labor win while results in a change of government and policy directions.

        UK retail sales volume down -0.9% mom in Mar, value down -0.9% mom

          In volume term, UK retail sales fell -0.9% mom in March, below expectation of -0.5% mom. Ex-fuel sales declined -1.0% mom, below expectation of -0.7% mom. For the year, retail sales was down -3.1% yoy while ex-fuel sales was down -3.2% yoy, versus expectation of -3.1% for both.

          In value term, retail sales was down -0.9% mom and up 4.5% yoy. Ex-fuel sales was down -0.6% mom and up 6.0% yoy.

          Full UK retail sales release here.

          China cuts 1-yr LPR moderately, keeps 5 yr LPR unchanged

            In a somewhat anticipated move, China’s PBoC made a cut to its one-year loan prime rate by 10bps, settling it at 3.45%. This is a slight deviation from the 15bps reduction that the majority of economists had forecasted. What stands out is that this marks the second reduction in this rate in just a span of three months.

            However, eyebrows were raised when PBOC decided to keep its five-year LPR — the benchmark for most mortgages in the country — steady at 4.2%. This move defied expectations of a 15 bps cut by many market watchers. The unaltered five-year LPR is being read by many as a signal of Chinese banks’ hesitancy to compromise their rate differential margin. Such reluctance throws into sharp relief potential concerns about the effective transmission of PBOC’s policy decisions into the broader market landscape.

            Furthermore, it stirs up conversations about the central bank’s capability to invigorate the property sector and the broader economy through monetary easing strategies. This narrative is all the more potent given that this decision on the one-year LPR came on the heels of an unexpected reduction in PBOC’s medium-term policy rate just a week earlier. To give specifics, PBOC had reduced the one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 15 basis points, bringing it down to 2.50% from its previous 2.65%.

            Considering these rate adjustments, many financial experts are now projecting more proactive measures from the PBOC in the forthcoming months. This may encompass further rate trims as well as potential reductions in the reserve requirement ratio for banks.

            Fed Williams: New Framework addresses problems of low neutral rate and persistently low inflation

              New York Fed President John Williams said Fed’s new framework statement “directly and effectively addresses the problems caused by a low neutral rate and persistently low inflation.”

              “First, it stipulates that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, a temporary overshooting of the longer-run inflation target will likely be desirable to keep inflation and inflation expectations centered on 2 percent.

              “Second, it makes clear that we seek inflation that averages 2 percent over time, consistent with our longer-run target.

              “Finally, the statement makes unequivocally clear that we seek maximum employment and will aim to eliminate shortfalls from this broad and inclusive goal. These changes are mutually reinforcing and will meaningfully improve our ability to achieve both of our dual mandate goals in an environment of a very low neutral rate.”

              William’s full speech here.

              Japan’s CPI core unchanged at 3.1%, core-core at highest since 1981

                Japan’s CPI growth slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.2% yoy, exceeding the expected 2.6% yoy increase. The CPI core (all items excluding food) remained unchanged at 3.1% yoy, in line with expectations. The CPI core-core (all items excluding food and energy) accelerated from 3.5% yoy to 3.8% yoy, surpassing the anticipated 3.4% yoy figure. This marks the 10th consecutive uptick and the highest level since December 1981.

                New BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has recently committed to maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy. While no major changes to the bond yield control policy are expected at Ueda’s first policy-setting meeting next week, the spreading inflation from energy to the broader economy may keep market expectations alive that BOJ could begin phasing out its massive stimulus later this year. However, this will depend on whether wages increase sustainably and support consumption.

                 

                UK PMI construction dropped to 44.4, but Brexit clarity could deliver boost ahead

                  UK PMI Construction dropped to 44.4 in December, down from 45.3, missed expectation of 45.7. The index has been below the 50 no-change mark for the eighth consecutive month. It’s the longest period of contraction for almost a decade. Markit added there was the sharpest fall in civil engineering activity since March 2009. New business decreased for the ninth month in a row. Input cost inflation eased to the lowest level since February 2010.

                  Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                  “December data suggested that the UK construction sector limped through the final quarter of 2019, with output falling in all three major categories of work. Brexit uncertainty and spending delays ahead of the General Election were once again the most commonly cited factors highlighted by firms experiencing a drop in construction activity.

                  “Civil engineering saw its sharpest decline for more than ten years and remained the worst-performing area of construction work, followed by commercial development. House building has been the most resilient category in recent months, but still declined overall during December.

                  “The forward-looking survey indicators provide some hope that the construction sector malaise will begin to recede in the coming months. Latest data indicated that the downturn in order books remains much less severe than the low point seen last August, which has already helped to bring employment numbers closer to stabilisation.

                  “Moreover, construction companies signalled that business optimism has recovered to its strongest for nine months. Survey respondents cited confidence that a more predictable domestic political landscape and clarity on Brexit could deliver a much-needed boost to clients’ willingness-to-spend in 2020.”

                  Full release here.

                  US-Mexico bilateral NAFTA talks postponed to Wednesday

                    Mexico and the US postponed a high level NAFTA meeting to Wednesday (originally scheduled for Tuesday yesterday). Politico quoted unnamed sources saying that the two sides are targeting to formally announce an agreement on Thursday. And after that Canada would be allowed to rejoin the negotiations.

                    However, as of now, there is not clear message that a deal is reached between Mexico an the US. A US Trade Representative spokesman said “there is no deal on NAFTA. There are major issues outstanding.” Mexico also denied the “handshake” deal with the US. Meanwhile, Canadian government also said it received no notification of an imminent NAFTA deal.

                    Eyes will stay on the postponed meeting between Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today.

                    Fed Powell: It’s important to earn and deserve trust that Fed is non-political

                      Speaking at a town hall to a group of educators, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated the assessment that the US economy is “now in a good place”. While there were some “big events” like Brexit, “the system has been strong”. He also emphasized that the essence of his job is to “earn and deserve trust” of American people to Fed that, it’s “working on their behalf in a non-political way” to support the economy.

                      Looking forward, Powell said income inequality and sluggish productivity are the biggest challenges of the next decade. He noted “We want prosperity to be widely shared. We need policies to make that happen.” And, “There are policies that we need to do that everyone should be able to agree on that will change mobility, improve people’s chances and enable people to better take part in the workforce of the future.”

                      Separately, Fed Governor Randal Quarles warned that “right now China is a downdraft as we think about what the potential impact for that is on our economy.” Though, the U.S. outlook “is still very solid” given the labor market in particular.

                      EU warns WTO term is the way in event of no-deal Brexit

                        As Brexit negotiation is a main theme today, a European Commission spokesman said at a regular new briefing, “we are fully concentrated on making the most out of this week’s negotiating round… we share prime minister Johnson’s desire to reach a deal quickly. We will do everything in our power to reach an agreement.”

                        He warned, a no-deal Brexit would “inevitably create barriers to trade and cross border exchanges that do not exist today”. “I finally point out that while we are determined to reach an agreement with the UK, the EU will be ready – in the event of a no deal scenario – to trade with UK on WTO terms as of the first of January, 2021,” the spokesman said.

                        Separately, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted: “I trust the British government to implement the Withdrawal Agreement, an obligation under international law & prerequisite for any future partnership. Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland is essential to protect peace and stability on the island & integrity of the single market.”

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                        China’s industrial production up 5.6% yoy in May, misses exp 6.0% yoy

                          China’s industrial production increased by 5.6% yoy in May, falling short of the expected 6.0% yoy and slowing from April’s 6.7% yoy. Despite this overall slowdown, the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed robust growth, with outputs rising 7.5% yoy and 10% yoy, respectively.

                          Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-to-date yoy, slightly below the anticipated 4.2%. Within this sector, property development investment notably declined by -10.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in China’s real estate market.

                          On a positive note, retail sales rose by 3.7% yoy, surpassing the expected 3.0%. This indicates resurgence in the consumer sector, which could provide a buffer against the broader economic slowdown.

                          BoJ warns of significant downside risks concerning overseas economies

                            BoJ left monetary policy unchanged today as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate was kept at -0.1%. JGB purchase will continue continue to keep 10-year JGB yield at around zero percent, with some flexibility depending on developments. Monetary base is expected to increase at around JPY 80T per annum. Y. Harada and G. Kataoka dissented again in 7-2 vote.

                            In the accompanying statement, BoJ warned that “downside risks concerning overseas economies are likely to be significant”. Risks include US macroeconomic policies, consequences of protectionist moves and their effects, emerging markets such as China, global adjustments in IT-related goods, Brexit and geopolitical risks.

                            Though, BoJ maintained that Japan’s economy is “likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend”. Domestic demand is expected to follow an uptrend. Exports are projected to show some weakness, but would stay on a “moderate increasing trend”. CPI is likely to increase gradually toward 2 percent, mainly on the back of the output gap remaining positive and medium- to long-term inflation expectations rising.

                            Full statement here.

                            US CPI ticked up to 1.4% yoy in Sep, core CPI unchanged at 1.7% yoy

                              US CPI rose 0.2% mom in September, matched expectation. Core CPI rose 0.2%, also matched expectations. Annually, headline CPI accelerated to 1.4% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core was unchanged at 1.7% yoy, matched expectations.

                              Full release here.

                              US ISM services dropped to 55.3, prices jumped to 71.8

                                US ISM Services PMI dropped -3.4 pts to 55.3 in February, well below expectation of 58.7. Business activity/production dropped -4.4 to 55.5. New orders dropped -9.9 to 41.9. Employment also dropped -2.5 to 52.7. But prices jumped 7.6 to 71.8.

                                ISM said, “the past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (55.3 percent) corresponds to a 2.2 -percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                Full release here.

                                Asia update: Sentiments stabilized but lacks steam for rebound, Yen lower after BoJ

                                  Sentiments in Asian markets stabilized today despite the selloff in US overnight. However, rebound in Asia is rather weak. Nikkei indeed closed down -0.14% while other major indices fluctuate between gains and losses.

                                  In the currency markets, New Zealand leads the way higher, additionally boosted by solid CPI data. Australian and Canadian are the next strongest. Yen is back under pressure after BoJ revised fiscal 2019 inflation forecasts steeply. Swiss Franc follow as the second weakest.

                                  In Asia:

                                  • Nikkei closed down -0.14% at 20593.72.
                                  • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.02%.
                                  • China SSE is up 0.01%.
                                  • Singapore Strait Times is down -0.48%.
                                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0016 at 0.003, turned positive.

                                  Overnight in the US:

                                  • DOW dropped -1.22%.
                                  • S&P 500 dropped -1.42%.
                                  • NASDAQ dropped -1.91%.
                                  • 10-year yield dropped -0.054 to 2.730.

                                  US 10 year yield dived on stimulus concern, heading back to channel support

                                    US 10-year yield dropped sharply overnight as concerns surfaced over the passage of President Joe Biden’s USD 1.9T pandemic relief proposal in Congress. Senate majority Leader Chuck Schumer would try to push through some measures in early February. But a comprehensive deal may be four to six weeks away. But he admitted, “will it be easy in the Senate? No”.

                                    Democrats only have slim 50-50 control in the Senate thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. Opposition to the bill was voiced by some moderate Republicans and some Democrats.

                                    10-year yield closed down -0.051 to 1.040. The rejection by near term channel resistance is now clear. TNX will likely pull back to wards channel support, which is close to 55 day EMA at 0.9581. Nevertheless, there is no threat to the up trend yet as long as the channel holds. Another rise towards 1.266 resistance is still in favor at a later stage.

                                    EU Barnier: No-deal Brexit becomes more likely but we can still avoid it

                                      EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said at an event in Brussels that “over the last days a no-deal scenario has become more likely.” Though, he remained optimistic that “we can still hope to avoid it.” He urged the UK to “indicate the way forward or indicate a plan… more today than ever”. He reiterated the agreement Brexit deal was “the only way” to leave EU in an orderly way.

                                      Meanwhile, Barnier also said EU27 is ready for a disorderly, abrupt Brexit. But he emphasized: “Being prepared for no-deal doesn’t mean that everything will be smooth. There will be disruptions, there will be problems. Being prepared means all unforeseen disruptions could be managed by the EU”.

                                      Germany CPI jumped to 0.9% in June, above expectations

                                        In preliminary readings, Germany CPI rose 0.6% mom in June, above expectations of 0.3% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated to 0.9% yoy, up from 0.6% yoy, beat expectation of 0.6% yoy.

                                        Looking at some details, goods CPI rose 0.2% yoy. Goods including energy dropped -6.2% yoy. Goods including food rose 4.4% yoy. Services CPI rose 1.4% yoy. Services including rents rose 1.4% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Fed’s Williams sees positive signs in inflation trend, awaiting more data

                                          New York Fed President John Williams, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, indicated that recent inflation readings over the past three months are “getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking for,” noting these as “positive signs.”

                                          However, Williams emphasized the need for “more data to gain further confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% goal. He expressed satisfaction with the current policy stance, stating, “I feel like the stance of policy right now is working well.”

                                          Williams suggested that if the favorable data trend continues, he would gain “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably to 2%.”