Sat, Oct 05, 2024 @ 01:11 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 264

Live Comments

Latest

BoC to taper again, CAD/JPY in consolidation but stays bullish

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    BoC is widely expected to continue tapering today, by announcing to lower weekly asset purchases by CAD 2B to CAD 1B. Also, the central bank would set the plan to end QE in December. Markets are currently pricing in three rate hikes in 2022, and would be eager to see any adjustment in the forward guidance to affirm such expectations. But BoC would probably hold their cards until December, and just reiterate that policy rate would stay at “the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved”.

    Some previews on BoC:

    CAD/JPY turned into sideway consolidations after hitting 93.00 last week, but overall bullish outlook is unchanged. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 84.88 to 93.00 at 89.89 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 93.00 will resume larger up trend from 73.80. Next target is 61.8% projection of 73.80 to 91.16 from 84.65 at 95.37.

    Australia trimmed mean and weighted median CPI rose to highest in over 5 yrs

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Australia CPI rose 0.8% qoq in Q3, matched expectations. Over the 12-month period, headline CPI slowed from 3.8% yoy to 3.0% yoy. Trimmed mean CPI jumped from 1.6% yoy to 2.1% yoy. Weighted median CPI rose from 1.6% yoy to 2.1% yoy too. Both trimmed mean and weighted mean CPI readings were highest in over five years, and the first annual movements above 2% since September 2015 quarter.

      Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Michelle Marquardt said the most significant price rises in the September quarter were new dwellings (+3.3 per cent) and automotive fuel (+7.1 per cent).

      Full release here.

      New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to 13.4 in Oct

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence was finalized at -13.4 in October, down from September’s -7.2. Own Activity Outlook rose from prior month’s 18.2 to 21.7. Export intentions rose from 7.4 to 8.6. Investment intentions rose from 9.2 to 13.8. Employment intentions dropped from 14.1 to 10.9. Cost expectations rose from 84.2 to 87.2. Pricing expectations rose from 58.1 to 65.5. Inflation expectations rose further from 3.02 to 3.45.

        ANZ said: “Despite living week to week to some extent, firms appear to be getting on with it as best they can. There are clearly challenges, with costs extremely high and profits expected to fall, but more positively, activity expectations, investment intentions and employment intentions are holding up. The COVID situation remains unpredictable, however, and we’ll be watching closely for any evidence of that uncertainty derailing plans.”

        Full release here.

        New Zealand reports record imports and trade deficit in Sep

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          New Zealand goods exports rose 10% yoy or NZD 387B to NZD 4.4B in September. Goods imports rose 30% yoy or NZD 1.5B to NZD 6.6B. Trade deficit came in at NZD -2.2B, versus expectation of NZD -0.8B. The set of data marked the third successive month of record imports, resulting in a record trade deficit.

          Exports to China rose 25%, to Australia dropped -8.4%, to US rose 23%, to EU rose -10%, and to Japan dropped -5.5%. Imports from China rose 48%, from EU rose 29%, from Australia rose 28%, from US dropped -2.1%, from Japan rose 41%.

          “These three consecutive record months for imports are a reflection of both the higher prices New Zealanders are paying for consumer goods, and strong demand for capital goods such as machinery used in construction, and passenger vehicles,” international trade manager Alasdair Allen said.

          Full release here.

          US consumer confidence rose to 113.8, reversing a three-month downward trend

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose from 109.8 to 113.8 in October, above expectation of 108.4. Present Situation Index rose from 144.3 to 147.4. Expectations index rose from 91.3 to 86.7.

            “Consumer confidence improved in October, reversing a three-month downward trend as concerns about the spread of the Delta variant eased,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

            “While short-term inflation concerns rose to a 13-year high, the impact on confidence was muted. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all increased in October—a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth through the final months of 2021. Likewise, nearly half of respondents (47.6%) said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months—the highest level since February 2020, a reflection of the ongoing resurgence in consumers’ willingness to travel and spend on in-person services.”

            Full release here.

            UK CBI retail sales performance jumped, but stock shortages bite

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              UK CBI said retail sales grew in the year to October at the faster pace than last month, balance up from 11% to 30%. Growth is expected to accelerate further next month to 35%. Orders growth accelerated from 20% to 48% but is expected to ease slightly back to 41% next month.

              Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist, said: “The UK’s economic recovery has been pretty bumpy lately and the same seems true of the retail sector. Sales performance has jumped around in recent months, while stock shortages continue to bite. Disruption to supply chains, combined with staff shortages and uncertain public health conditions mean retailers are finding it difficult to plan for the winter ahead.”

              Full release here.

              German Ifo: Supply problems now impacts manufacturing export

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Germany’s Ifo export expectations dropped sharply from 20.5 to 13.0 in October, hitting the lowest level since February. Ifo said, “supply problems in intermediate products are now having an impact on manufacturing export”.

                President of Ifo Clemens Fuest said: “In the electrical and electronics sector, export expectations have softened but remain at a high level, with companies continuing to expect good international business. However, the mood is bleaker in the chemical industry, where growth rates will be significantly slower. The situation is similar for the automotive industry. In the food and furniture industries, exports are expected to remain constant. The textile and leather industries are now preparing for declining international sales.”

                Full release here.

                EUR/AUD downside breakout, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP to follow?

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  While Euro looks weak in some crosses, most are still bounded in very tight range, except EUR/AUD, which breaks through 1.5456 temporary. It remains to be seen if that’s a signal of more broad based selling in Euro, or buying in Aussie.

                  EUR/AUD breaks to the downside today as fall from 1.6434 resumes. Next focus is 161.8% projection of 1.6434 to 1.5907 from 1.6232 at 1.5379. Sustained trading there would pave the way back to retest 1.5250. low.

                  At the same time, attention will also be on 1.4317 temporary low in EUR/CAD. Firm break there will resume larger down trend towards 100% projection of 1.5783 to 1.4580 from 1.5096 at 1.3839.

                  Meanwhile, break of 0.8420 temporary low in EUR/GBP will resume the medium term down trend towards 0.8276 key support next.

                  US Yellen frankly raised issues of concern to China

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a virtual meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday. In a statement, the US side said they “discussed macroeconomic and financial developments”, and “frankly raised issues of concern”.

                    On the Chinese side, it described in a statement that the meeting as “pragmatic, candid and constructive”. China expressed concerns on US tariffs, sanctions and urged fair treatment of Chinese companies.

                    Both sides agreed to further communications.

                    BoE Tenreyro: Impact from higher energy prices to fade quickly, growth moderation to continue

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      BoE MPC member Silvana Tenreyro said in a speech that since August MPC forecast, there was “large upside news for near-term inflation from energy prices” which should “fade quickly”. But there was also a “moderation in recent GDP growth”, which looks set to “continue as we enter winter months. Higher energy prices may “reduce households real incomes and depress sentiment”, with additional risks from the prevalence of Covid, and falls in income for any furloughed workers who move out of employment.

                      Overall, she judged that the balance of the news is “unlikely to have a large effect on the amount of tightening required over the next few years”. The August forecast was “conditioned on market expectations of a gently rising path for Bank Rate, gradually unwinding the relatively small amount of monetary policy stimulus added since the onset of Covid”. The precise policy path will partly depends on how risks evolved.

                      She added, “my votes on any future policy changes will depend on incoming data and my assessment of the economy at the relevant MPC meetings”.

                      Full speech here.

                      Bundesbank: German economy to growth significantly weaker in Q4

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Bundesbank said in the monthly report that inflation in Germany “continue to rise before it gradually declines in the coming year.” Industrial products prices continued to increase. Energy prices have risen mainly due to higher oil prices. “On the other hand, the considerably higher spot market prices for natural gas will probably only have an impact on consumer prices after the turn of the year.”

                        The economy is expected to “growth significantly weaker” in Q4. Strong momentum in service sector is “likely to subside considerably” too. Manufacturing is likely to “continue to suffer from delivery problems. Output will probably “still fall short of its pre-crisis level of the final quarter of 2019 in Autumn. For 2021, GDP growth is likely to be “significantly less than was expected in the Bundesbank’s June projection.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB de Cos: High commodity prices have transitory nature, but may persist

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos warned that supply chain problems and rising raw material prices affected the pace of economic recovery negatively. “Recent developments anticipate a significant downward economic outlook revision for 2021.”

                          “We’ll keep observing relatively high inflation rates in coming months,” he added. “High commodity prices have transitory nature, though we cannot rule out price hike will persist over coming months.” In particular, “high energy prices may persist through winter as oil and gas storage is relatively low.”

                          Germany Ifo dropped to 97.7, sand in the wheels hampering recovery

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped slightly to 97.7 in October, down from 98.8, missed expectation of 97.8. Current Assessment dropped to 100.1, down from 100.4, above expectation of 99.3. Expectations index dropped to 95.4, down from 97.3, below expectation of 96.1.

                            By sector manufacturing dropped from 20.0 to 17.2. Service dropped from 191. to 16.5. Trade dropped notably from 9.0 to 3.7. Construction rose from 11.1 to 12.9.

                            Ifo said: “Supply problems are giving businesses headaches. Capacity utilization in manufacturing is falling. Sand in the wheels of the German economy is hampering recovery.”

                            Full release here.

                            WTI continues up trend, but overbought condition might limit upside at 88

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Rally in WTI crude oil continues today and hit another 7-year high at 85.26. Upside momentum remains strong as seen in daily MACD. Further rally is expected to 61.8% projection of 33.50 to 77.16 from 61.90 at 88.88. Nevertheless, considering overbought condition in daily RSI, we’d look for topping signal around there to bring pull back. Meanwhile, break of 8.36 support will argue that a short term top is formed and turn WTI into correction first.

                              Silver pressing 24.86 resistance, Gold still trying 1800

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Silver hit as high as 24.81 last week but lost momentum ahead of 24.86 near term resistance. For now, further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 23.55 minor support intact. Sustained break of 24.86 will argue that whole corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed with three waves down to 21.41. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 28.73/30.07 resistance zone. However, rejection by 24.86 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 23.55 will bring retest of 21.41 low instead.

                                Gold breached 1800 handle last week as the rebound from 1721.46 but quickly lost momentum again. Still, further rise is in favor as long as 1760.01 supports holds, to 1833.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1682.60 to 1916.30 key structural resistance next. however, break of 1760.01 will retain near term bearishness and target 1721.46 support instead.

                                Fed Powell: Supply constraints and elevated inflation likely to last longer than expected

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Fed is “on track” to start tapering the asset purchases. “Supply constraints and elevated inflation are likely to last longer than previously expected and well into next year, and the same is true for pressure on wages,” he added. “Of we were to see a risk of inflation moving persistently higher, we would certainly use our tools.”

                                  Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said recent “eye-popping” inflation will subside with the pandemic. The decision on not raising interest rate is appropriate. “Just because we are standing pat, being patient, is not the same as being asleep,” Daly said.

                                  Canada retail sales rose 2.1% mom in Aug, to fall -1.9% mom in Sep

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Canada retail sales rose 2.1% mom to CAD 57.2B in August, slightly above expectation of 2.0% mom. The gain was led by higher sales at food and beverage stores (+4.8%), gasoline stations (+3.8%), and clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%). Sales increased in 9 of 11 subsectors. Based on preliminary data, sales has decreased -1.9% mom in September.

                                    Full release here.

                                    UK PMI composite rose to 56.8, picking up economy pouring fuel on inflation worries

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      UK PMI Manufacturing ticked up to 57.7 in October, from September’s 57.1, above expectation of 55.6. PMI Services rose to 58.0, up from 55.4, above expectation of 54.5. PMI Composite rose to 56.8, up from 54.9, highest in 3 months.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The UK economy picked up speed again in October, but the expansion is looking increasingly dependent on the service sector, which in turn looks prone to a slowdown amid the recent rise in COVID-19 cases. Growth is also being accompanied by an unprecedented rise in inflationary pressures, which will inevitably feed through into higher consumer prices in coming months.

                                      “The news comes at a time when the Bank of England is already leaning towards hiking interest rates to safeguard against inflationary expectations becoming entrenched. The record readings of the PMI survey’s price gauges will inevitably pour further fuel on these inflation worries and add to the case for higher interest rates.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 54.7, growth much weaker in Q4

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 58.5 in October, down from September’s 58.6, above expectation of 57.3. But that’s still the lowest level in 8 months. PMI Services dropped to 54.7, down from 56.4, below expectation of 55.4, and a 6-month low. PMI Composite dropped to 54.3, down from 56.2, a 6-month low.

                                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “A sharp slowdown in October means the eurozone starts the fourth quarter with the weakest growth momentum since April… The ongoing pandemic means supply chain delays remain a major concern, constraining production and driving prices ever higher, both in manufacturing and in the services sector. Average selling prices for goods and services are rising at a rate unprecedented in over two decades, which will inevitably feed through to higher consumer prices in the coming months.

                                        “While the overall rate of economic growth remains above the long-run average for now, risks seem tilted to the downside for the near-term as the pandemic continues to disrupt economies and push prices higher. After strong second and third quarter expansions, GDP growth is looking much weaker by comparison in the fourth quarter.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Germany PMI composite dropped to 52.0, beginning to plateau

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 58.2, down from 58.4, better than expectation of 56.8. That’s still a 9-month low. PMI Services dropped notably to 52.4, down from 56.2, below expectation of 55.2, a 6-month low. PMI Composite dropped to 52.0, down from 55.5, an 8-month low.

                                          Phil Smith, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “October’s flash PMI data point to economic activity in Germany beginning to plateau at the start of the fourth quarter. Growth has slowed to a modest pace, with supply bottlenecks holding back manufacturing production and the rebound in services activity continuing to lose momentum, in part due to supply issues spilling over to the sector.”

                                          Full release here.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.