Australia employment decreased -46.3k in October, much worse than expectation of 50k rise. At 12.84m, employment level was back below pre-pandemic peak. Full time jobs dropped -40.4k while part-time jobs dropped -5.9k.

Unemployment rate jumped sharply from 4.6% to 5.2%, well above expectation of 4.7%. But participation rate also rose slightly from 64.5% to 64.7%. Monthly hours worked dropped -1m hours.

Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS: “The increases in unemployment show that people were preparing to get back to work, and increasingly available and actively looking for work – particularly in New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory. This follows what we have seen towards the end of other major lockdowns, including the one in Victoria late last year.”

“It may seem counterintuitive for unemployment to rise as conditions are about to improve. However, this shows how unusual lockdowns are, compared with other economic shocks, in how they limit being able to work and look for work.”

Full release here.

Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose 0.6% to 105.3 in November, up from 104.6. Looking at some details, the index on economic conditions for the next 12 months improved from 103.2 to 106.6, as reopening of major cities looked to have shored up confidence. Unemployment expectations index dropped notably from 107.1 to 95.3, as more consumers expect unemployment to fall than rise.

Westpac expects RBA to continue with the current AUD 4B per week asset purchases to continue as planned till February, and then reduce it to AUD 2-3B until next most likely review in May. Yet, if RBA assess that the pace of achieving its targets is satisfactory, it could decide to cut taper to ADU 2B per week and Fed, and than end the program altogether by May.

Full release here.