Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% mom in Oct, EU up 0.3% mom

    Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% mom in October, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 1.3% for automotive fuels and by 0.4% non-food products, while it fell for food, drinks and tobacco by 0.1%.

    EU retail sales rose 0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+13.0%), Portugal (+2.3%) and Denmark (+2.2%). The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (-5.4%), Austria (-2.8%) and Estonia (-2.6%).

    Full release here.

    UK PMI services finalized at 58.5, recovery accelerated from Q3

      UK PMI Services was finalized at 58.5 in November, down from October’s 59.1. PMI Composite was finalized at 57.6, down from October’s 57.8. Markit also said there was the strongest increase in new work since June. Output growth eased slightly. Input costs and prices charged rose at record rates.

      Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit:

      “Surging price pressures have done little to dent business and consumer spending across the UK economy… The overall speed of recovery looks to have accelerated in comparison to the third quarter of 2021, with output growth mostly driven by services as manufacturers struggle with severe shortages of raw materials and critical components.

      “The vast majority of survey responses in November were received prior to the news of the Omicron variant, however, which has the potential to derail near-term growth prospects and add to international supply chain disruption.

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 55.4, downside growth risk, upside inflation risk

        Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 55.9 in November, up from October;s 54.6. PMI Composite was finalized at 55.4, up from October’s 54.2. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI composite dropped to 7-month low at 59.3. Spain rose to 3-month high at 58.3. Italy rose to 3-month high at 57.6. France rose to 4-month high at 56.1. Germany rose to 2-month high at 52.2.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

        “An improvement in the rate of economic growth signalled by the eurozone PMI looks likely to be short-lived. Not only did demand growth weaken, but firms’ expectations of future growth also sank lower as worries about the pandemic intensified again. With the data collected prior to news of the Omicron variant, sentiment about near-term prospects will inevitably have been knocked even further….

        “..While growth risks have shifted to the downside, risks to the inflation outlook seem tiled to the upside if virus case numbers continue to rise and new restrictions are introduced. Supply chains will be further hit, staff availability will deteriorate and spending could shift from services to goods again, further exacerbating the imbalance of supply and demand.”

        Full release here.

        Germany PMI services finalized at 52.7, eke out further modest growth

          Germany PMI Services was finalized to 52.7 in November, up from October’s 52.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.2, up slightly from October’s 52.0. Markit said new business fell as fourth COVID wave took hold. Firms’ expectation slipped to 12-month low. Rate of input cost and output price accelerated to new highs.

          Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit:

          “Germany’s service sector was able to eke out further modest growth in November, but the survey’s forward-looking indicators gave reason for concern. Inflows of new work and business confidence were already in decline in November thanks to the fourth wave of coronavirus, and now the Omicron variant brings added uncertainty and a risk of tighter virus containment measures.

          “Given what we’ve seen in the survey data so far and the potential new risks posed by the Omicron variant, the economy is, at best, set for a notable slowdown in growth in the final quarter.

          “The survey data showed a further intensification of inflationary pressures in November driven by a surge in energy costs, with service providers joining manufacturers in recording an unprecedented rise in prices. This was despite signs of inflation already easing across consumer-facing sectors.

          “Another strong round of hiring across the service sector in November maintained the labour market’s solid pace of recovery. However, with recruitment tending to lag movements in activity and underlying demand, we can reasonably expect the pace of job creation to slow in line with weaker economic growth and lower business confidence.”

          Full release here.

          France PMI services finalized at 57.4, keeping the economy afloat

            France PMI Services was finalized at 57.4 in November, up from 56.6 in October, signalling the strongest growth since June. Markit said strong jobs growth sustained as business activity continued to grow. Firms reported still-strong demand pressures. output prices rose at fastest rate since June 2011. PMI Composite was finalized at 56.1, up from October’s 54.7.

            Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit:

            “November presented another positive month for France’s service sector, with growth accelerating to a five-month high amid still-strong hiring activity and improving demand conditions.

            “To be clear though, the service sector is what is keeping the economy afloat at the moment as France’s manufacturing sector is struggling with massive supply-related constraints.

            “This puts the wider economy in a precarious position, because as we’ve seen on other parts of Europe, the fate of the service sector is still a function of the trajectory of COVID-19 cases. Policymakers in France have so far talked down the potential for the most stringent of restrictions being implemented, which bodes well for economic activity through the next couple of quarters, but as we’ve seen before, this can change rapidly.

            “That said, if France manages the current wave of infections, this should allow robust growth in the service sector to continue.”

            Full release here.

            ECB Lagarde: Inflation will decline in 2022

              ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a conference, “We are firmly of the view, and I’m confident, that inflation will decline in 2022.” She described the inflation profile as a “hump”, and while it’s now at a high level of the hump for Eurozone, ” a hump eventually declines.”

              Lagarde also said that energy prices will have declined significantly by the end of 2022. But supply bottlenecks will take until mid-2022 or end 2022 to end.

              Separately, Governing Council member Klaas Knot said the central bank could decide to raise interest rates by 2023 if inflation continues to exceed expectations next year.

              NFP Eyed as Dollar index holds above 95.51 support

                US non-farm payroll report is back as a major focus for today, in particular with talk of faster Fed tapering in the background. Markets are expecting 525k job growth in November. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have another solid 0.4% mom growth.

                Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing rose slightly from 52.0 to 53.3. ADP private job grew 534k, just slightly down from prior month’s 570k. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped notably from 285k to 239k. Consumer confidence edged down from 111.6 to 109.5. Overall, the data point to a solid NFP report today.

                Dollar index is still holding above 95.51 near term support despite a correction in the past two weeks. Technically speaking, consolidation from 96.93 should be relatively brief and larger rise from 89.53 is likely to resume sooner rather than later. However, firm break of 95.51 could bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 94.68) before DXY finds a bottom.

                China PMI composite dropped to 51.2, inflationary pressure remained

                  China Caixin PMI Services dropped from 53.8 to 52.1 in November, above expectation of 51.2. PMI Composite dropped from 51.5 to 51.2.

                  Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Overall, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained stable in November, while for the service sector, expansion occurred at a slightly slower pace. The downward pressure to the economy grew, and inflationary pressure was partly eased….

                  “The government’s measures to stabilize commodity supplies and prices significantly eased cost pressures on manufacturing enterprises, but had a limited impact on the reduction of costs to service enterprises. Overall, inflationary pressure remained.”

                  Full release here.

                  Fed Daly: Might need to start crafting a plan on rate hike

                    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “if we didn’t have higher inflation readings, you might let the economy go a little bit more to see if we can get through COVID and have those individuals come back.”

                    However, “right now, we’re dealing with inflation that’s above our target and inconsistent in its current readings with our longer run views on price stability,” she added. “We have to deal with that.”

                    Fed might need to start dialing down some of the extra policy accommodation and “start crafting a plan to, at least, you know, think about raising the interest rate,” she said.

                    Fed Bostic: Finishing tapering before end of Q1 is in our interest

                      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that with robust growth, an improving job market and inflation more than twice Fed target, having tapering finished “some time before the end of the first quarter” would be “in our interest”.

                      Bostic also referred to OECD’s projection that inflation in the US could be above 4% for the year of 2022. He said, “if it is at that kind of level, I think there is going to be a good case to be made that we should be pulling forward more interest-rate increases and perhaps do even more than the one I have penciled in.”

                      US initial jobless claims rose to 222k, continuing claims dropped to 1.96m

                        US initial jobless claims rose 28k to 222k in the week ending November 27, better than expectation of 250k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -12k to 239k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

                        Continuing claims dropped -107k to 1956k in the week ending November 20, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -36k to 2084k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone PPI at 5.4% mom, 21.9% yoy in October, well above expectations

                          Eurozone PPI came in at 5.4% mom, 21.9% yoy in October, well above expectation of 3.2% mom, 19.0% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 16.8% mom in the energy sector, by 1.4% mom for intermediate goods, by 0.5% mom for durable and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% mom for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.8% mom.

                          EU PPI rose 5.0% mom, 21.7% yoy. The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (+11.2%), Italy (+9.4%) and Romania (+8.6%), while the only decreases were observed in Estonia (-2.1%), Luxembourg (-0.3%) and Sweden (-0.2%).

                          Full release here.

                          Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% in Oct, EU unchanged at 6.7%

                            Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% in October, down from 7.4%, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%.

                            Eurostat estimates that 14.312 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.045 million in Eurozone, were unemployed in October 2021.

                            Full release here.

                            Australia trade surplus narrowed to AUD 11.22B in Oct

                              Australia exports of goods and services dropped -3% mom to AUD 43.05B in October, driven by falls in iron ore prices. Goods and services imports dropped -3% mom to AUD 31.83B, by fall in imports of capital goods. Trade surplus narrowed to AUD 11.22B, slightly higher than expectation of AUD 11.00B.

                              Retail sales rose 4.9% mom, 5.9% yoy to AUD 31.13B.

                              BoJ Suzuki: Effective and sustainable monetary easing to persistently continue

                                BoJ board member Hitoshi Suzuki said in a speech, “to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, the Bank is expected — even after COVID-19 subsides — to persistently continue with further effective and sustainable monetary easing”.

                                However, it’s also necessary to “pay attention to the possibility that credit costs will increase due to a delay in economic recovery at home and abroad”. Also, “downward pressure on financial institutions’ core profitability is likely to persist as a trend even after COVID-19 subsides”.

                                “My view is that the Bank should pay due attention to the fact that side effects of monetary easing will accumulate over time,” he added. “The Bank will continue to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner so as to fulfill the two missions of achieving price stability and ensuring the stability of the financial system.”

                                Fed Mester very open to consider faster tapering

                                  Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg TV, “making the taper faster is definitely buying insurance and optionality so that if inflation doesn’t move back down significantly next year we’re in a position to be able hike if we have to.”

                                  She said that recent data “have come in supportive of that case, so I’m very open to considering a faster pace of tapering.”

                                  “Right now, with the inflation data the way it is and with the job market as strong as it is, I do think that we have to be in a position that if we need to raise rates a couple of times next year we’re able to do that,” said Mester.

                                  Fed Williams: To complete tapering earlier is a decisive to grapple with

                                    New York Fed President John Williams said in an FT interview that Omicron “adds a lot of uncertainty to the outlook”. It will “will continue that excess demand in the areas that don’t have capacity, and will stall the recovery in the areas where we actually have the capacity.” That would mean a “somewhat slower rebound overall” and “increase those inflationary pressures, in those areas that are in high demand.”

                                    As for monetary policy, “the question is: Would it make sense to end those purchases somewhat earlier, by maybe a few months, given how strong the economy is?” he said. “That’s a decision, discussion, I expect we’ll have to grapple with.”

                                     

                                    US ISM manufacturing ticked up to 61.1, corresponds to 5.1% annualized GDP growth

                                      US ISM Manufacturing Index rose slightly from 60.8 to 61.1 in November, above expectation of 61.0. Looking at some details, new orders rose from 59.8 to 61.5. Production rose from 59.3 to 61.5. Employment rose from 52.0 to 53.3. Supplier deliveries dropped from 75.6 to 72.2. Prices dropped from 85.7 to 82.4.

                                      ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI for November (61.1 percent) corresponds to a 5.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis”.

                                      Full release here.

                                      US ADP jobs grew 534k in Dec, recovery continued to power through its challenges

                                        US ADP private employment grew 534k in December, slightly above expectation of 525k. By company size, small businesses job grew 115k, medium businesses grew 142k, large businesses grew 277. By sector, goods-producing jobs grew 110k, service-providing jobs grew 424k.

                                        “The labor market recovery continued to power through its challenges last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year. Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year. It’s too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.1 in Nov, but industry in a vulnerable position

                                          UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.1 in November, up from October’s 57.8, hitting a 3-month high. Markit said output growth edged higher as domestic order intakes rose. New export business fell for the third straight month.

                                          Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, said: “The current mix of supply-side constraints, cost increases, skill shortages and rising demand for labour will add to the expectations of an imminent rate increase by the central bank, but the survey highlights how the subdued rate of manufacturing growth and export decline leaves industry in a vulnerable position to any new headwinds, not least the Omicron variant.”

                                          Full release here.