US consumer confidence edges up to 97.4, inflation expectations rise to 6.2%

    U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose slightly in August, edging up to 97.4 from 97.2, beating expectations of 96.3. The modest gain masked underlying weakness, however, with Present Situation Index slipping to 131.2. Expectations Index fell to 74.8, staying well below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession ahead.

    The details showed consumers were less upbeat about the labor market, with job availability perceptions declining for an eighth straight month. At the same time, optimism about future income faded, even as expectations for future business conditions improved modestly. The Conference Board noted that consumer confidence has effectively plateaued at recent levels.

    Inflation expectations added a note of caution, rising to 6.2% in August from 5.7% in July after three months of declines. While still below April’s 7.0% peak, the uptick underscores persistent concerns about price pressures.

    Full US consumer confidence release here.

    US durable goods fall -2.8% mom, but core orders show resilience

      U.S. durable goods orders fell -2.8% mom to USD 302.8B in July, marking the third decline in four months but performing better than forecasts of -4.0% mom. Transportation equipment, also down in three of the past four months, was the main drag, plunging -9.7% mom to USD 101.7B. Ex-defense orders also slipped -2.5% to USD 284.5B.

      Stripping out the volatile transport sector, however, orders rose 1.1% mom to USD 201.1B, far stronger than the 0.3% mom expected. The positive core reading suggests that underlying business investment remains more stable than the headline figure implies, limiting concerns of a broader manufacturing downturn.

      Full US durable goods orders release here.

      Gold bounces as Trump escalates clash with Fed, but gains lack follow-through

        Gold bounced modestly this week as markets digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s unprecedented attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The move marked a sharp escalation in Trump’s long-running feud with the central bank, where he has repeatedly pressed for faster rate cuts but stopped short of threatening Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires next year.

        Investors interpreted the move as an effort to reshape the Fed’s balance, raising the risk of a more politically driven policy stance. That uncertainty spurred some safe-haven demand for Gold, but follow-through buying has been limited. The metal remains confined within this month’s 3,300–3,400 range.

        In the bigger picture, Gold has been trapped between 3,100 and 3,500 for more than three months. The long-term uptrend remains intact, but it’s unsure whether another leg down will unfold before the market finally tests resistance at the 3,500 threshold.

        For now, break above near-term resistance at 3,408.21 is needed to signal momentum is turning higher. Without that, Gold’s outlook stays neutral, with sideways trading likely to dominate in the days ahead.


        AUD/JPY’s corrective fall intact for another leg through 94.38

          AUD/JPY dipped mildly after RBA’s August minutes affirmed that further easing is likely over the coming year. While the Board leaned toward a gradual pace of cuts, it made clear that a faster reduction path is possible if the labor market continues to rebalance.

          RBA suggested it would not require material deterioration to quicken the pace; rather, once the job market shifts to a more balanced state, it would be appropriate to cut faster to avoid inflation undershooting target.

          Technically, AUD/JPY’s pullback from 97.41, as a correction of the broader rise from 86.03, remains in motion. The rebound from 94.38 has lost momentum after stalling at 95.94, with the falling trend line (now at 96.40) likely to cap further upside attempts.

          Break below 95.12 minor would signal the correction entering a fresh leg lower, with 94.38 next support. Breaking that level would extend the correction toward 138.2% projection of 97.41 to 94.88 from 96.81 at 93.31.

          Though, strong support should emerge from 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 97.41 at 93.06 to complete the correction, and bring resumption of rise form 86.03.


          RBA minutes: Not yet possible to decide pace of further easing

            Minutes of RBA’s August 11–12 meeting showed policymakers unanimously backed the 25bps cut to 3.60%, citing stronger evidence that inflation is heading sustainably toward the midpoint of the 2–3% target range. The Board agreed that full employment can be preserved while inflation continues easing, though members noted risks remain in both directions.

            The central bank noted that some further reduction in cash rate likely to be needed “in the coming year”. But it also stressed that the pace of further reductions will be determined “meeting by meeting” as new data emerges. While some indicators still suggest a tight labor market and inflation projected to stay slightly above target in the medium term, private demand is recovering, supporting the case for a “gradual pace”.

            At the same time, the minutes noted conditions that could justify a”slightly faster” pace of easing. If the labor market is already “in balance”, or if risks shift more clearly to the downside—whether through weaker global growth or slower employment handover—then a quicker reduction in the cash rate could be warranted to avoid undershooting inflation.

            Overall, members concluded it is “not yet possible” to judge whether easing will be gradual or slightly faster. RBA left the door open for both paths, emphasizing that data will drive the speed of policy adjustments in the months ahead.

            Full RBA minutes here.

            AUD/NZD rally intact, busy week with RBA minutes, Aussie CPI and NZ confidence

              AUD/NZD could see sharp moves this week as markets digest a run of significant releases from both economies. RBA minutes on Tuesday, Australia’s monthly July CPI on Wednesday, and New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence survey on Thursday are possible movers.

              In New Zealand, Q2 retail sales offered an upside surprise today. Headline volumes rose 0.5% qoq, beating expectations of 0.2%, while ex-auto sales jumped 0.7% qoq, defying forecasts of contraction. However, the Kiwi failed to capitalize, remaining pressured after last week’s dovish RBNZ decision. Markets have since shifted toward expecting two more rate cuts before the easing cycle ends.

              RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby reinforced that view by stressing that both remaining policy meetings this year are “live.” This leaves scope for either two consecutive cuts in 2025, or one this year and one early next year, depending on how upcoming economic data evolves.

              Meanwhile, the RBA appears more deliberate. After cutting 25bps earlier this month, the new projections signaled that one additional cut this year and two in 2026 remain the likely path under current assumptions. November is seen as the more appropriate window for action, allowing time to absorb Q3 CPI data. This week’s minutes and July’s monthly CPI release will be important checks on whether that outlook holds.

              Technically, AUD/NZD’s near-term rally remains intact, supported by firm momentum on D MACD. As long as 1.1020 holds, further gains are likely, with scope toward the 138.2% projection of 1.0649 to 1.0920 from 1.0744 at 1.1119.

              However, there is no clear sign of medium term range breakout yet. Hence, AUD/NZD would likely lose momentum above 1.119. Upside should be capped by 161.8% projection at 1.1182, which is slightly above key resistance of 1.1177 (2024 high).

              German Ifo business climate edges higher to 89.0, recovery still weak

                Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose modestly in August, climbing to 89.0 from 88.6 and beating expectations of 88.3. The improvement was driven by stronger expectations, with the sub-index rising to 91.6 from 90.7. Current assessment slipped from 86.5 to 86.4. Ifo said sentiment among companies has “brightened slightly,” but warned that the recovery “remains weak.”

                Sector details painted a mixed picture. Manufacturing sentiment deteriorated further from -11.9 to -12.2, with firms less satisfied about current conditions and order intake still showing no signs of growth, though capital goods makers saw noticeable improvement.

                Services dipped from 2.8 to 2.6 as expectations turned cautious despite a stronger current situation. Trade slumped from -20.3 to -21.4 on weaker performance. Construction slipped from -14.3 to -15.3, as firms were less satisfied with current conditions even as their outlook improved.

                Full German Ifo release here.

                Exhausted Ethereum stalls below 5,000, risk of pullback builds

                  Ethereum briefly surged to a new record above 4,900 over the weekend but has struggled to sustain momentum just shy of the 5,000 psychological barrier. While ETH has outpaced Bitcoin in recent weeks on the view that BTC was overextended, momentum signals indicate Ethereum may now be equally exhausted.

                  Besides, historically, oversized weekend surges often retrace once liquidity returns early in the week. That dynamic, coupled with stretched momentum, leaves Ethereum exposed to a near-term correction.

                  Technically, while further rise cannot be ruled out yet, bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD suggests that Ethereum’s upside will likely be capped by 200% projection of 1,382.55 to 2,879.27 from 2,110.58 at 5,104.02. This makes the 5,000–5,100 area a formidable resistance zone.

                  On the downside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 4,508.16) will confirm short term topping. In this case, Ethereum should then be correcting the rise from 2,110.58, which is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 1,382.55. Deeper correction should be seen to 4,060.93 support, or even further to 55 D EMA (now at 3,806.63) before resuming the up trend again with the final leg.

                  As for Bitcoin, the break of 111,889 support suggests that it’s already correcting the rise from 74,373. Near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 117,433 resistance holds. Deeper correction should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 74,373 to 124,553 at 105,384.

                  This leaves the near-term outlook more cautious across the crypto space, with both BTC and ETH vulnerable to profit-taking before attempting fresh highs later in the cycle.

                  ECB’s Lagarde highlights migrant labor as key Eurozone growth support

                    At Jackson Hole on Saturday, ECB President Christine Lagarde credited foreign workers with playing a vital role in supporting the Eurozone economy. She said migration inflows have helped counterbalance reduced working hours and weaker living standards, providing stability during a period of subdued real wage growth.

                    Lagarde pointed out that although foreign workers represented just 9% of the bloc’s labor force in 2022, they contributed fully half of its growth over the previous three years. “Without this contribution, labor market conditions could be tighter and output lower,” she added.

                    BoE’s Bailey cites falling labor participation rate as UK’s “sad story”

                      BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned at Jackson Hole on Saturday that the UK faces an “acute challenge” of weak underlying growth compounded by reduced Labor force participation. He stressed that with ageing demographics unlikely to reverse, raising productivity growth must become a priority to offset the economy’s structural drag.

                      Bailey said the BoE has shifted its focus from long-term unemployment trends to participation rates, noting that the proportion of working-age Britons active in the Labor market remains lower than before the pandemic, unlike in most advanced economies. While he cautioned that survey data contains caveats, he argued they do not fully explain the shortfall.

                      Calling it a “pretty sad story for the UK,” Bailey said diminished participation leaves the UK at the bottom of global rankings. This structural weakness is also feeding into inflation concerns, with some policymakers fearing that limited Labor supply is one reason why UK inflation, at 3.8% in July, remains the highest in the G7.

                      BoJ’s Ueda sees tight labor market sustaining wage growth

                        BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a Jackson Hole panel on Saturday that Japan’s labor shortages are becoming “one of our most pressing economic issues.” He highlighted that wage growth, once concentrated in large enterprises, is now spreading to smaller firms.

                        Ueda said that barring a major negative demand shock, “the labor market is expected to remain tight and continue to exert upward pressure on wages”. He noted that the demographic shifts set in motion since the 1980s are now driving both “acute labor shortages and persistent upward pressure on wages”

                        According to Ueda, these shifts are forcing supply-side adjustments, including higher participation rates, greater labor mobility, and increased capital-labor substitution. He pledged the BoJ will “continue to monitor these developments closely and incorporate our assessment of evolving supply-side conditions into the conduct of monetary policy.”

                        Powell’s subtle Jackson Hole signal: Risk balance my warrant Fed shift; Dollar sinks

                          Dollar fell sharply after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the case for rate cuts may soon strengthen. Speaking at Jackson Hole, Powell highlighted Fed’s growing policy trade-off: inflation risks remain tilted upward while downside risks to employment are building. He stressed that the Fed’s framework requires carefully balancing these competing pressures.

                          Powell observed that policy is already significantly closer to neutral compared to a year ago, with unemployment and other labor measures steady enough to permit a cautious approach.

                          Importantly, Powell said that with monetary policy already in restrictive territory, the evolving balance of risks “may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” Markets took this as a subtle hint that easing could be on the horizon, accelerating Dollar losses across the board.

                          Full speech of Fed’s Powell here.

                          Fed’s Collins stresses balance between inflation and jobs

                            Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Bloomberg TV that while U.S. growth has shown signs of slowing, the “overall economic fundamentals are relatively solid.” She argued policymakers cannot wait until all uncertainty clears before acting and must carefully weigh the Fed’s dual mandate.

                            She emphasized policymakers “cannot wait until all of the uncertainty is behind us,” and must instead weigh both sides of the Fed’s mandate.

                            “If we start to see worsening labor market risks relative to inflation, starting to dial back the restrictiveness would become appropriate,” she said.

                            Canadian retail sales jump in 1.5% mom June, but July seen weakening

                              Canada’s retail sales climbed 1.5% mom to CAD 70.2B in June, though the gain fell just short of expectations of 1.6% mom. The increase was broad-based, with all nine subsectors contributing, led by food and beverage retailers.

                              Excluding autos, sales rose an even stronger 1.9% mom, more than doubling forecasts of 0.9% mom, suggesting underlying consumer spending remains resilient.

                              In volume terms, retail sales advanced 1.5% mom in June, reinforcing that the pick-up was not purely price-driven. On a quarterly basis, sales grew 0.4% qoq, with volumes up 0.7% qoq, pointing to a modest but positive contribution from consumption to Q2 GDP.

                              However, early signals from Statistics Canada suggest the momentum could be fading. The agency’s advance estimate shows sales likely slipped -0.8% in July mom, raising the risk that strong second-quarter consumption may not carry through into the third.

                              Full Canada’s retail sales release here.

                              Eurozone wages growth jump to 3.95%, supports ECB pause

                                Eurozone negotiated wages accelerated to 3.95% in Q2, up sharply from 2.46% in Q1, the ECB reported on Friday. Though well below the 2024 peak of 5.4%, the acceleration suggests cost pressures remain sticky.

                                Some analysts noted that much of the gain reflected one-off payments, raising the possibility that the rise is short-lived. Still, with services inflation remaining elevated, policymakers have little scope to accelerate easing after already cutting the deposit rate to 2.00%.

                                Whether wage growth cools in the coming quarters will be central to determining if the ECB can continue on its path toward looser policy.

                                Japan core CPI slows to 3.1% as rice inflation cools, but underlying pressures persist

                                  Japan’s inflation slowed again in July, with core CPI (ex-fresh food) easing to 3.1% yoy from 3.3% yoy, slightly above expectations of 3.0% yoy. Headline CPI also dipped to 3.1% yoy. The moderation was driven in part by cooling rice prices, which rose 90.7% yoy after surging 100.2% yoy in June, alongside the reintroduction of energy subsidies. Together, these helped bring core inflation down from May’s 3.7% peak.

                                  However, price pressures remain entrenched. Food inflation excluding fresh items actually quickened to 8.3% yoy from 8.2% yoy. Core-core CPI (ex-food and energy) stayed unchanged, elevated at 3.4%. Energy prices provided some relief with a -0.3% yoy annual decline, the first drop since March 2024, but this was not enough to counter stubborn underlying strength.

                                  For policymakers at BoJ, the data paints a mixed picture: rice and energy are finally easing their grip on consumer prices, but persistently high core inflation highlights why interest rate hikes remain on the table. While inflation is clearly off its May peak, the road back toward the 2% target looks slow and uneven.

                                  Fed’s Goolsbee cautious on cuts, Collins open to September easing

                                    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee struck a cautious tone, telling Bloomberg TV that while next month’s FOMC meeting is “live,” the recent pickup in services inflation has made him hesitant about supporting a rate cut.

                                    He pointed to the latest CPI report, where services costs accelerated in a way “probably not driven by tariffs,” calling it a “dangerous data point” for Fed’s inflation fight.

                                    In contrast, Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled a greater willingness to cut rates soon, telling the Wall Street Journal she could back easing as early as September. Collins emphasized that higher tariffs could weigh on consumer purchasing power and ultimately weaken spending, while also warning that labor market risks are becoming more visible.

                                    Collins acknowledged that she expects inflation to keep rising through the end of 2025 before easing again in 2026, but still viewed the risks to growth and employment as important factors that justify keeping the option of cuts on the table.

                                     

                                    Fed’s Hammack: No case for rate cuts as inflation trends wrong way

                                      Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled little appetite for near-term easing, telling Yahoo Finance that if the FOMC were meeting tomorrow she “would not see a case for reducing interest rates.” She stressed that inflation has been “too high for the past four years” and it’s been “trending in the wrong direction” currently, justifying a stance that remains “modestly restrictive.”

                                      Hammack noted that the economy has so far shown resilience, with no significant signs of downturn that would warrant easier policy. Instead, she emphasized the Fed’s responsibility to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored, cautioning that premature cuts risk undermining that effort.

                                      On tariffs, Hammack flagged that their effects are only beginning to filter through. Typically, it takes “three to four months” for the first signs to emerge, meaning the bulk of the impact will not be seen until 2026. She expects further pass-through of higher costs next year, adding another reason to proceed cautiously on easing.

                                      US PMI surge suggests Fed may need to tighten rather than ease

                                        US flash PMI survey showed the sharpest manufacturing rebound in over three years, as the index jumped from 49.8 to 53.3. Services held firm at 55.4, down slightly from 55.7, lifting Composite PMI to an eight-month high of 55.4. The data point to an economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized pace, well above the average 1.3% seen in the first half of 2025.

                                        S&P Global’s Chris Williamson noted that companies across both sectors are seeing stronger demand, with rising backlogs suggesting capacity constraints reminiscent of the early 2022 supply bottlenecks. This surge has also underpinned a pickup in hirin.

                                        Yet, the survey also showed mounting inflation pressures. Businesses are increasingly passing tariff-related costs through to consumers, and the PMI price indices are now running at their highest levels in three years. Selling prices for goods and services have moved higher, suggesting that consumer inflation will “rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months.”

                                        For the Fed, the PMI results raise more questions than answers. Far from reinforcing the case for imminent rate cuts, the data place the economy closer to historical conditions that align with policy tightening.

                                        “Combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting,” Williamson noted.

                                        Full US PMI flash release here.

                                        Fed’s Bostic sticks to view of one cut this year

                                          Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that his outlook for monetary policy remains centered on just one rate cut this year, consistent with guidance he has offered since early 2025. While Bostic emphasized he is not “stuck on anything,” he noted that forecasts carry wide confidence bands in the current environment of heightened uncertainty.

                                          He pointed out that inflation has been moving “sideways” in the 2.5–2.8% range for much of the past nine months, persistently above the Fed’s 2% goal. This suggests progress on disinflation has stalled, keeping policymakers wary of easing too early. At the same time, the unemployment rate remains historically low, though cracks in the labor market are beginning to appear.

                                          Bostic acknowledged the downward revisions to May and June payrolls as a sign of “lot less robust job creation,” though he cautioned against reading too much into one data point.