ECB bulletin: Eurozone output to exceed pre-pandemic level in Q1

    In the monthly economic bulletin, ECB said, “the global economy remains on a recovery path, although persisting supply bottlenecks, rising commodity prices and the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) continue to weigh on the near-term growth prospects.”

    “Supply bottlenecks are expected to start easing from the second quarter of 2022 and to fully unwind by 2023.” But “the future course of the pandemic remains the key risk affecting the baseline projections for the global economy.” Risk to growth outlook are “tilted to the downside” and balance of risks to global inflation is “more uncertain”.

    Eurozone growth is “moderating” but “activity is expected to pick up again strongly in the course of this year.” Output is expected to exceed pre-pandemic level in Q1 of 2022. However, as some Eurozone countries have reintroduced tighter restrictions, “this could delay the recovery, especially in travel, tourism, hospitality and entertainment”.

    Full economic bulletin here.

    Fed Harker open to more than three hikes if required

      Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in an FT interview, “I currently have three increases in for this year, and I’d be very open to starting in March. I’d be open to more if that’s required.”

      “We don’t want to put the brakes on completely, but we do need to slow down some of the demand,” he said. “We can do something . . . by raising the fed funds rate.”

      “Ultimately, what we worry about is that people start to think, ‘Well, inflation is just not going to be at 2 per cent, it’s going to be at 2.5 per cent or 3 per cent going forward’,” he said.

      As for the balance sheet run-off, Harker said if could start once interest rates were “sufficiently away” from zero. “I am very much in the camp of communicating over and over how we’re going to do this and then being methodical,” he said.

      Dollar breaks 95 in steep fall, to draw support from 93.97 fib level

        Dollar index tumbled sharply overnight and dived through 55 day EMA to close at 94.91. At this point, price actions from 96.93 are seen as a correction only. Hence, we’d look for strong support at 38.2% retracement of 89.20 to 96.93 at 93.97 to contain downside. The level is also close to 55 week EMA at 93.77. That would set the base for resuming the up trend from 89.20 through 96.93 at a later stage.

        However, sustained break of 93.97 will argue that rise from 89.20 has already completed at 96.93. The three wave structure in turn suggests that it’s a correction to the down trend from 102.99. Such development, together with the index back below 55 week EMA, would be rather bearish and could set up another medium term fall through 89.20 later in the year.

        Fed Daly: Time to start removing policy accommodation

          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said inflation is “uncomfortably high” in the US. And, it’s time to “start removing some of the accommodation we’ve been giving to the economy,”

          “I definitely see rate increases coming, as early as March even,” she noted. But she didn’t want to predict the number of rate hikes needed for this year.

          Fed Brainard: Policy focused on getting inflation back down to 2%

            In the nomination hearing for Fed Vice Chair position, Lael Brainard said, “we are seeing the strongest rebound in growth and decline in unemployment of any recovery in the past five decades.”

            “But inflation is too high, and working people around the country are concerned about how far their paychecks will go,” she added. “Our monetary policy is focused on getting inflation back down to 2% while sustaining a recovery that includes everyone. This is our most important task.”

            Fed Bullard: March hike is a definite possibility

              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Fed “could begin increasing the policy rate as early as the March meeting in order to be in a better position to control inflation.” He added, ” it makes sense to get going sooner rather than later and so I think March would be a definite possibility.”

              “We need to risk manage here. We need to be prepared for the case where inflation does not moderate as much as hoped and instead the Fed has to come in and move inflation closer to the 2% target. How much the Fed has to do and how much natural moderation there will be is very much an open question,” he said.

              Separately, Bullard also told WSJ, “I actually now think we should maybe go to four hikes in 2022.”

              US oil inventories dropped -4.6m barrels, WTI extending rally

                US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -4.6m barrels in the week ending January 7. At 413.3m barrels, crude oil inventories are about -8% below the five year average for this time of year.

                Gasoline inventories rose 8m barrels. Distillate rose 2.5m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -3.4m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -4.5m barrels.

                WTI crude oil’s rally continues in early part of US session and hits as high as 82.76 so far. Further rise is expected to 161.8% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 83.86 and possibly further to 85.92 high.

                We’d maintain the view that rise form 62.90 the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 85.92 only. Hence, we’re not expecting a firm break of 85.92 yet. Instead, another fall should be seen before the consolidation completes. Break of 77.97 support will indicate rejection by 85.92 and target 73.66 resistance turned support first. However, firm break of 85.92 could pave the way to 90 handle.

                US CPI rose to 7.0% yoy in Dec, core CPI rose to 5.5% yoy

                  US all-item CPI accelerated from 6.8% yoy to 7.0% yoy in December, matched expectations. The annual rate was the largest increase since June 1982. Core CPI accelerated from 4.9% yoy to 5.5% yoy, above expectation of 5.4% yoy. That’s the highest level since February 1991. The energy index rose 29.3% yoy while food index rose 6.3% yoy.

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone industrial production rose 2.3% mom in Nov, EU up 2.5% mom

                    Eurozone industrial production rose 2.3% mom in November, well above expectation of 0.6% mom. Production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.2%, capital goods by 1.5%, energy by 1.2% and intermediate goods by 0.9%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by -0.2%

                    EU industrial production rose 2.5% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+37.3%), Poland (+5.9%) and Czechia (+4.8%). The highest decreases were observed in Belgium (-4.4%), Malta (-3.7%) and Luxembourg (-2.3%).

                    Full release here.

                    BoJ upgrades economic assessments on all nine regions

                      In the latest regional Economic Report, BoJ upgraded assessment on all nine regions. All reported that their respective economies “had been picking up or had shown signs of a pick-up, with the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) waning somewhat, primarily in consumption of services.”

                      Full report here.

                      WTI crude oil resumes rally, targeting 83.8 next

                        WTI crude oil follows broad based risk-on sentiment and closed higher overnight. Rise from 62.90 resumed by breaking through 80.63 temporary top and hits as high as 81.79 so far. Current rally is expected to target 161.8% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 83.86, which is close to 85.92 high.

                        Rise from 62.90 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 85.92 only. Hence, we’re not expecting a firm break of 85.92 yet. Instead, another fall should be seen before the consolidation completes. Break of 77.97 support will indicate rejection by 85.92 and target 73.66 resistance turned support first.

                        BoJ Kuroda: Consumer inflation likely to gradually accelerate

                          In a speech to regional branch managers, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said “Japan’s economy is picking up as a trend, although it remains in a severe state due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.” The economy is expected to recover ahead as coronavirus impact eases.

                          On prices, Kuroda said consumer inflation is “likely to gradually accelerate reflecting rising energy prices.” Also, “consumer inflation likely to gradually accelerate as a trend.”

                          S&P 500 closed higher after Fed Powell, staying in up trend

                            US stocks closed generally higher overnight after upbeat comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In the nomination hearing before Senate Banking committee, he said that the current surge in Omicron infections will only have “short-lived” impacts. The economy is ready for some monetary stimulus withdrawal.

                            “Inflation is running very far above target. The economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place,” Powell said. And, “you need to focus on getting inflation under control because you’re not going to have maximum employment without price stability.” Though, he didn’t drop any hint on the timing of the first rate hike.

                            S&P 500 closed up 0.92% at 4713.07. SPX is so far still holding well inside medium term rising channel. 55 day EMA is also providing adequate support to maintain bullishness. Overall, it’s still on track to resume the long term up trend through 4818.62 high at a later stage, towards 5000 handle.

                            Fed Powell renomination hearing live stream

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                              Fed George prefer earlier balance sheet runoff, Mester could support March hike

                                Kansas City Fed President Esther George said, “my own preference would be to opt for running down the balance sheet earlier rather than later as we plot a path for removing monetary accommodation.”

                                Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said, “If the economy in March looks like it does today and the outlook is similar … then I would support moving the funds rate up at that meeting and starting to move back from some of the extraordinary accommodation we needed earlier in the pandemic.”

                                Fed Bostic: March hike a reasonable possibility

                                  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said today, “there is a risk inflation is likely to be elevated for an extended period of time and we need to respond directly, clearly and aggressively.” “If things continue the way they are March would be a reasonable possibility,” he added.

                                  Bostic also said there was no need to phase in balance sheet runoff. “I would hope we would move pretty quickly and get out of this emergency stance,” he said. “The tool is pretty well understood and the motivation is pretty well understood. It should go faster for sure.”

                                  Bundesbank Nagel: Inflation could remain high for longer than expected

                                    New Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in his swearing in ceremony, “it’s true that high inflation rates can be attributed to special effects that expire automatically. But not entirely. I see a danger that inflation could remain high for longer than expected.”

                                    At the same occasion, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “we understand that rising prices are a concern for many people, and we take that concern very seriously… The whole Governing Council is united in pursuit of this goal. At the same time, one of the key strengths of the Eurosystem is the way that it brings together different perspectives to form a consensus. Our rich quality of debate and diversity of views ensures that our decisions are robust.”

                                    GBP/CHF accelerates up to 1.26, heading to 1.30?

                                      GBP/CHF rises strongly to as high as 1.2605 so far today week. Current development argues that correction from 1.3070 has completed with three waves down to 1.2134. That came just ahead of 50% retracement of 1.1107 to 1.3070 at 1.2089.

                                      Further rise is now expected as long as 1.2452 support holds. Sustained break trend line resistance (now at 1.2642) will affirm this bullish case and target 1.2816 and then 1.3070 high.

                                      While it’s a bit early, it should noted that sustained break of 1.3070 will likely be accompanied by sustained trading above 55 month EMA. That would be a long term bullish signal, which suggest that rise from 1.1107 is at least correcting the down trend from 2.7328 (2000 high).

                                      BoJ public opinion survey: 78.8% expect prices to rise in a year

                                        According to BoJ’s December public opinion survey, 78.8% of the respondents said they expect price levels to go up one year from now. That’s a notable increase from September’s 68.2% and the highest level since 2019. Among them, 13.4% said prices will go up significantly, comparing to September’s 8.4%.

                                        On outlook for economic conditions one year from now, 26.0% said it will improve, up from 16.6%. 52.5% said it will remain the same, up from 46.1%. 21.0% said it will worsen, down from 36.4%. The Diffusion Index rose from -19.8% to 5.0%.

                                        Full survey results here.

                                        ECB Lane: Criteria for rate hike not in place

                                          In an interview, ECB chief economist Philip Lane pointed to the December economic projections, and said, ” inflation will fall this year, and that it will go below our 2 per cent target in 2023 and 2024.”

                                          While the 5% December inflation number is “unusually high”, Lane said that’s dominated by the 26% rise in energy prices last year. He added, “we do not see behaviour that would suggest inflation will remain above our target into the medium term.”

                                          As inflation will “settle below our target in 2023 and 2024”, he added, “The criteria for moving interest rates up are therefore not in place. This remains our view.”

                                          On growth, Lane said that bottlenecks are “temporary factors” and the order book is very good. “Overall, in Europe we see a solid growth engine this year, next year and the year after that.”

                                          Full interview here.