US-China trade deal might not be ready for APEC, farm purchase a sticky point

    According to a Reuters report, the text of US-China trade deal might not be ready for signing at the APEC summit in Chile on November 16-17. An unnamed official was quoted saying “If it’s not signed in Chile, that doesn’t mean that it falls apart. It just means that it’s not ready. Our goal is to sign it in Chile. But sometimes texts aren’t ready. But good progress is being made and we expect to sign the agreement in Chile.”

    Though, White House spokesman Judd Deere insisted, “As the president said several weeks ago, we have reached a phase-one agreement with the Chinese and both sides are working to finalize the text for a signing in Chile.”

    Separately, it’s reported that the amount of farm purchases is a sticky point for the text of the agreement. US is pushing China to spell out that it would buy as much as USD 50B of American farm products. But China would want to make it flexible and make the purchases based on market conditions. An unnamed Chinese officials said “China does not want to buy a lot of products that people here don’t need or to buy something at a time when it is not in demand.”

    And separately again, China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun warned on Tuesday that US criticism on China’s Xinjian policy is not helping trade negotiations. The US, UK and 21 other states pushed China to stop detaining ethnic Uighurs and other Muslims in Xinjiang Zhang said, “the trade talks are going on and we are seeing progress. I do not think its helpful for having a good solution to the issue of trade talks.”

    US and Japan agreed in principle on trade deal, for signing next month

      US President Donald Trump and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced to have agreed in principle on trade deal, at a joint press conference at G7 in France. The teams are now working on finalizing the agreement for signing next month.

      Trump said “It’s a very big transaction, and we’ve agreed in principle. It’s billions and billions of dollars. Tremendous for the farmers”. US Trade representative Robert Lighthizer said the agreement “will lead to substantial reductions in tariffs and non-tariff barriers across the board.”

      Abe also noted “we still have some remaining work that has to be done at the working level, namely finalizing the wording of the trade agreement and also finalizing the content of the agreement itself… But we would like to make sure that our teams … accelerate the remaining work for us to achieve this goal of realizing the signing of the agreement on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly at the end of September.”

      IMF Lagarde: Tariffs add to global uncertainty, but decelerating growth is not recession

        IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the global economy is not under threat of recession due to US tariffs actions on other countries. She told Reuters yesterday, “Decelerating growth, but growth nonetheless — 3.3 percent at the end of this year, and certainly a strong U.S. economy. We do not see at the moment, in our baseline, a recession.”

        However, still, “one more tariff here, one more threat there, one more negotiation that has not yet started, add to a global uncertainty which is not conducive to additional growth,” she added.

        77% economists expect no BoJ stimulus exit until 2020 or later

          According to a Reuters poll, 73% of economists surveyed expected that BoJ will not start unwinding stimulus until 2020 or later. That’s nearly double of 37% last month. Around one third said BoJ’s July announcement as a small step on crafting the exit strategy. BoJ explicitly talked about allowing 10 year JGB yield to move between -0.1% and 0.1%. 77% of economists believed that would help bond market functioning.

          On the economy, economists projected core CPI, excluding sales tax hike impact, to rise 0.9% in the fiscal year to March 2019, same as the prior fiscal year. That’ notably lower than BoJ’s own forecasts of 1.1% in fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2019. Economists also saw Japan GDP to grow 1.1% this fiscal year and then slow to 0.8% next.

          The poll was taken from Aug. 3 to 8.

          China MOFCOM: US trade friction has limited impact, but 2019 more adverse and complex

            The Chinese Ministry of Commerce released Fall 2018 “China Foreign Trade Situation Report” today. In a statement, MOFCOM noted that China’s foreign trade maintained a “stable and good trend” and in 2018 up to Q3. And, the current US-China trade friction has “limited impact” on China’s foreign trade.

            MOFCOM also noted that current international demand is “relatively stable”. Domestic demand is “growing steadily”. And conditions exist for steady growth in foreign trade. Nonetheless, with higher base effect, Q4’s import and export growth could be dragged down.

            Additionally, MOFCOM also said 2019 trade development will be “more adverse and complex”. It noted increasing downside risks in the world economy and protectionism. The report urged measures like reducing burden on bother import and export businesses, and real implementation of trade policies.

            Full release in Simplified Chinese.

            US Agriculture Secretary Perdue: Class 7 has to go for a NAFTA deal

              As White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow repeated many times, “milk” is the key word in NAFTA renegotiation. This was echoed by US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue in a TV interview aired on Sunday. Perdue said “our farmers don’t have access to the Canadian markets the way that they have access to us. Class 7 has to go. It can’t be renamed something or called something else.”

              Class 7 is a new milk class created by Canada to price milk ingredients such as protein concentrates, skim milk and whole milk powder. Perdue added the class “allowed them to export milk solids on the world market and below prices that cut into our opportunity for our dairy people to have access to that world market.”

              Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland insisted over the weekend that to reach a deal, “it’s going to take flexibility on all sides.” She didn’t respond to Kudlow’s comments by pointed out that he is “not at the negotiating table”.

              Australia added 41.1k jobs, but unemployment rate stuck at 5.2%

                Australia employment grew 41.1k in July, well above expectation of 14.2k. Full-time jobs rose 34.5k while part time jobs rose 6.7k. Unemployment rate was steady at 5.2%, matched expectations. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 66.1%.

                In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increases in employment were in Queensland (up 19.9), New South Wales (up 13.0k), and Victoria (up 3.6k). The largest decrease was in Western Australia (down -4.2k). Unemployment rate increased in South Australia (up 0.9 pts to 6.9%) and Western Australia (up 0.2 pts to 5.9%), Decreases were recorded in Tasmania (down -0.8 pts to 6.0%), New South Wales (down -0.2 pts to 4.4%) and Queensland (down -0.1 pts to 6.4%), with Victoria recording no change.

                The better than expected job growth should keep RBA on sideline in September. However, unemployment continues to be stuck at 5.2%. There is no sign of falling towards RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%. The central bank will still need more easing ahead to push down unemployment rate so as to push up inflation to target.

                Full release here.

                Eurozone retail sales down -0.2% mom in Jul, EU fell -0.3% mom

                  Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.2% mom in July, matched expectations. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.2% mom for automotive fuels, while it increased by 0.4% mom for food, drinks and tobacco and by 0.5% mom for non-food products.

                  EU retail sales decreased -0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Denmark and Ireland (both -2.3%), the Netherlands (-1.4%) and Luxembourg (-1.3%). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (+1.1%), Sweden (+1.0%) and Cyprus (+0.8%).

                   

                   

                  Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

                  New Zealand’s goods exports rises 3.8% yoy in Mar, imports fell -25% yoy

                    New Zealand’s goods exports rose 3.8% yoy to NZD 6.5B in March. Goods imports fell -25% yoy to NZD 5.9B. Monthly trade balance was a surplus of NZD 588m, versus expectation of NZD -505m deficit.

                    Exports to US and EU showed increases of 8.0% yoy and 3.6% yoy respectively. However, exports to major trading partners like China (-1.9% yoy), Australia (-3.7% yoy), and Japan (-15% yoy) declined.

                    On the import side, there were significant reductions across all major partners. Imports from EU saw the sharpest decline at -43% yoy, followed closely by US at -42% yoy. Imports from China, Australia, and South Korea were down -20% yoy, -13% yoy, and -21% yoy respectively.

                    Full New Zealand trade balance release here.

                    Into US session: Sterling suffers fresh selling, Dollar strongest

                      Entering into US session, Dollar is the strongest one for today and is making some progresses on rally attempt. USD/CAD has taken out 1.3340 resistance which completes a near term head and shoulder reversal pattern. But at this point, the greenback still fails to break near term resistance against Euro, Swiss and Aussie yet. Boston Fed Eric Rosengren’s speech provides little inspiration. And the greenback might look into ISM services.

                      At this point, Euro is the second strongest one, followed by Swiss Franc. Data from Eurozone continue to paint a picture that the worst is behind. Italy services PMI rose to 50.4, back above 50. France PMI services was revised up to 50.2, back above 50. Eurozone PMI services was also revised up to 52.8. Retail sales rose 1.3% mom. German 10-year yield is back above 0.18 but European stocks shrug.

                      Meanwhile, Sterling suffers fresh selling at the moment and is trading as the weakest one. Weaker than expected PMI services provide no support. There’s report that UK isn’t expecting a breakthrough on Irish backstop when Attorney General Geoffrey travels to Brussels tonight. But it’s hardly any news. Commodity currencies follow as next weakest.

                      In Europe, currently:

                      • FTSE is up 0.35%.
                      • DAX is down -0.28%.
                      • CAC is down -0.25%.
                      • German 10-year yield is up 0.0201 at 0.183.

                      Earlier in Asia:

                      • Nikkei dropped -0.44%.
                      • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.01%.
                      • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.88%.
                      • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.52%.
                      • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.008 to 0.009.

                      French GDP grew strongly by 0.5% qoq, bolstered by foreign trade

                        France’s GDP surpassed expectations in Q2, growing by 0.5% qoq, significantly better than anticipated 0.1% qoq growth. French economy managed to outperform due to robust rebound in foreign trade activities.

                        According to the data, the main driver of this better-than-expected performance was the positive contribution from foreign trade, which added 0.7 points to GDP growth. Exports in particular saw a rebound this quarter, rising 2.6% after -0.8% contraction in the previous period. Meanwhile, imports also saw an increase, though less pronounced, rising by 0.4% after falling -2.0% in the prior period.

                        On the other hand, final domestic demand, excluding inventories, weighed on GDP growth once again, contributing a negative -0.1%, consistent with the previous quarter. This is largely attributed to a decrease in household consumption, which dropped by -0.4%. However, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) noted a slight increase of 0.1%.

                        Contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was minimally negative in Q2, at -0.1%.

                        Full France GDP release here.

                        BoE Pill: A significant and necessary monetary policy response in November

                          BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said in a speech, “on the basis of the fiscal easing announced last week, the macroeconomic policy environment looks set to rebalance. Taken in conjunction with the macroeconomic impact of ensuing market developments, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the fiscal easing announced last week will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.”

                          The MPC forecasts will be the “vehicle” for making ” necessarily comprehensive assessment” on recent developments. The assessments will “embody recent evidence of weakness in economic activity, as well as the impact of the Government’s Energy Price Guarantee on headline inflation and wage and price setting behaviour.” They will factor in “the evolution of international commodity prices, not least developments in wholesale natural gas markets” and “impact of the Government’s Growth Plan and other fiscal announcements in detail.”

                          As for the gilt interventions announced by BoE this week, Pill emphasized it’s a “temporary and targeted financial stability operation”. It was “not a monetary policy operation”.

                          Full speech here.

                          US GDP grew 2.0% annualized in Q3, missed expectations

                            US GDP grew 2.0% annualized in Q3, below expectation of 2.6%. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

                            Full release here.

                            Fed Bullard: Policy rate getting closer to sufficiently restrictive zone

                              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that FOMC aggressive actions in 2022 and planned rate hike in 2023 has “returned inflation expectations to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”

                              “During 2023, actual inflation will likely follow inflation expectations to a lower level as the real economy normalizes,” he said.

                              “The policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive, but it is getting closer,” he added.

                              Regarding the economy, Bullard noted, “The probability of a soft landing has increased compared to where it was in the fall of 2022, where it was looking more questionable… And the reason I think that the prospects for a soft landing have increased is that the labor market has not weakened the way many had predicted” and growth levels rebounded from weakness”.

                              ECB Kazaks: Rate hike in July is possible and reasonable

                                ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said “a rate rise in July is possible and reasonable” and “ending the Asset Purchases Programme in early July is appropriate,”

                                “Markets are pricing two or three 25 basis point steps by the end of the year. I have no reason to object to this, it’s quite a reasonable view to take,” he said. “Whether it happens in July or September is not dramatically different, but I think July would be a better option.”

                                Eurozone industrial production dropped -1.8% mom in Mar, EU down -1.2% mom

                                  Eurozone industrial production dropped -1.8% mom in March, slightly worse than expectation of -1.7% mom. Production of capital goods fell by -2.7%, non-durable consumer goods by -2.3%, intermediate goods by -2.0% and energy by -1.7%, while production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.8%.

                                  EU industrial production dropped -1.2% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases were registered in Slovakia (-5.3%), Germany (-5.0%) and Luxembourg (-3.9%). The highest increases were observed in Lithuania (+11.3%), Estonia (+5.1%), Bulgaria and Greece (both +5.0%).

                                  Full release here.

                                  Australia AiG manufacturing rose to 54, exports jumped but domestic sales fell

                                    Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing rose 1.6 pts to 54.0 in June. Looking at some details, production rose 2.4 to 54.7. Employment rose 0.8 to 51.0. New orders rose 0.7 to 55.7. Exports jumped 10.1 to 53.0. Sales dropped -2.6 to 45.0. Input prices rose 2.1 to 89.3. Selling prices rose 2.1 to 67.8. Average wages dropped -5.5 to 69.3.

                                    Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “Although input price pressures continued to accumulate, Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded again in June with solid increases in production and new orders and a slight lift in employment. While export sales were up, domestic sales fell reflecting the decline in consumer and business confidence in the face of concerns about inflation, interest rates and asset values. Selling prices were higher in June but by a smaller amount than input costs as less robust demand inhibited the ability of manufacturers to fully recover their higher costs in the market.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US watering down demands on SOEs in trade negotiations with China

                                      Intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, market access, and market distortion by subsidies to State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are among the core issues in US-China trade negotiations. According to a Reuters report quoting unnamed sources, the US is stepping back on its demand regarding SOEs in China.

                                      An important tricky point regarding SOEs is that it’s tightly interwind with the Chinese government’s industrial policy. That’s deeply rooted in the fundamental nature of China’s system, a “systematic rival” to major economies in the world as seen by EU. While China is making concessions in other areas, it’s an area that the socialist country won’t concede ground. A source said that “if U.S. negotiators define success as changing the way China’s economy operates, that will never happen”.

                                      In addition, China is expected to ramp up purchases of US goods as part of the trade deal. But who’s going to make the purchases? It’s most likely the SOEs which the government has direct control on. Thus, another sources said “the purchasing, for example, reinforces the role of the state sector because the purchasing is all being done through state enterprises.”

                                      Northern Ireland DUP: Trap of the Irish backstop is the problem

                                        After rumors that Northern Ireland DUP has privately given conditional agreement to UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, its deputy leader Nigel Dodds echoed that support. Dodds said “We want to reach a consensus which respects the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom and which also works for our neighbours in the Republic of Ireland”. And, “the trap of the backstop is the problem,” he added. “There are ways forward which do not require this backstop and we need to see a willingness to explore such options.”

                                        Meanwhile EU and Ireland are stepping up preparations for no-deal Brexit. European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas confirmed that Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar had spoken yesterday. And, they had “looked forward to continuing close cooperation … including on intensifying no deal contingency action in the coming weeks”.

                                        Fed Williams: Decline decline in r* means limited policy space in future downturns

                                          In prepared remarks, New York Fed President John Williams said the global shifts in demographics and productivity have two important implications for the economy and monetary policy. Firstly, “slower population and productivity growth translate directly into slower trend economic growth”. Secondly, “these trends have contributed to dramatic declines in the longer-term normal or ‘neutral’ real rate of interest, or r-star.”

                                          And, the global decline in r-star will continue to pose “significant challenges” for monetary policy. There will be “limited policy space” for rate cuts in future downturns. Hence, “recoveries will be slow and inflation below target”. Also, the limitation in the ability of central banks to offset downturns results in an “adverse feedback loop”. That is “expectations of low future inflation drag down current inflation and further reduce available policy space”.

                                          Separately, Williams told Bloomberg TV that “as tariffs get larger, assuming that happens, the effects will be bigger, boosting inflation in the next year and probably having negative effects on growth.” “We could probably get a couple tenths or two tenths on the inflation rate over the next year based on what has already been announced. If there (is) further escalation in terms of tariffs, those effects would get even larger”, he added.