Germany’s economic prospects have deteriorated further as the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group revised its GDP forecasts downward. The group now expects the German economy to contract by -0.1% in 2024, a downgrade from the previously anticipated 0.1% growth.

This adjustment implies that Germany will face two consecutive years of economic contraction, following a projected decline of -0.3% in 2023.

The forecast for 2025 has also been lowered, with GDP growth now expected at 0.8%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.4%. However, a modest recovery is anticipated in 2026, with growth projected to pick up to 1.3%.

Inflation is expected to decline, offering some relief to the economy. After reaching 5.9% last year, inflation is projected to slow to 2.2% this year and stabilize at 2% in both 2025 and 2026.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting and economic policy at DIW Berlin, highlighted the challenges facing Germany. She noted that “structural change” is compounding the economic downturn.

Key factors such as decarbonization, digitalization, and demographic shifts, along with intensified competition from Chinese companies, are initiating “structural adjustment processes.” These developments are “dampening the long-term growth prospects” of the German economy, noted Dany-Knedlik.

Full release here.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index for October showed a marginal improvement, rising from -21.9 to -21.2, though falling short of the expected -21.0. Despite the slight uptick, overall consumer sentiment remains weak. Economic expectations dipped from 2.0 to 0.7 in September, while income expectations saw a stronger rise, from 3.5 to 10.1. The willingness to buy also improved, increasing from -10.9 to -6.9, while the willingness to save climbed from 10.7 to 12.0.

Rolf Bürkl, consumption expert at NIM, cautioned against overinterpreting this minor improvement. He stated, “After the severe setback in the previous month, the slight improvement in consumer climate can be interpreted more as a stabilization at a low level.”

He further added, “The consumer climate has not improved since June 2024, and the slight increase cannot be seen as the start of a noticeable recovery.” In addition to the ongoing challenges of wars, crises, and inflation, the labor market has emerged as a new source of concern in recent months, weighing on consumer sentiment.

Full German Gfk consumer climate release here.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index dropped from 86.6 to 85.4 in September, falling below market expectations of 86.1. This decline signals rising concerns for the German economy as key sectors show signs of strain. Current Assessment Index also fell, from 86.5 to 84.4, missing forecasts of 86.0. However, Expectations Index, which reflects sentiment about future economic conditions, remained relatively stable, easing only slightly from 86.8 to 86.3, in line with expectations.

Sectoral data shows widespread weakness. The manufacturing sector posted a significant drop from -17.8 to -21.6, while the services sector also deteriorated, falling from -1.3 to -3.5. The trade sector saw a deeper contraction, with the index dropping from -27.4 to -29.8. On the other hand, construction provided a rare positive, showing a slight improvement from -26.8 to -25.2.

According to the Ifo Institute, “The German economy is coming under ever-increasing pressure.” With multiple sectors showing increasing strain, the data suggests the German economy could remain in a precarious position, adding to recession concerns as the Eurozone’s overall economic prospects look uncertain.

Full German Ifo release here.