Sun, Jan 12, 2025 @ 01:01 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 23

Live Comments

Latest

ECB’s Rehn sees growing case for Oct rate cut

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn suggested today that slowing inflation and weaker growth prospects in Eurozone has provided “more grounds” for another rate cut at the October meeting.

    Additionally, Rehn pointed to the “prevailing headwinds” facing economic growth in the Eurozone, noting that these challenges “tilt the scales” toward a more accommodative policy stance.

    He also cautioned that it is too early to declare a “soft landing” for the economy, as risks to growth remain prominent.

    Rehn repeated ECB’s data-driven approach, adding, “let’s follow the figures closely and make a comprehensive analysis before making decisions, as always.”

    Eurozone CPI falls to 1.8% in Sep, CPI core down to 2.7%

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Eurozone CPI fell from 2.2% yoy to 1.8% yoy in September, below ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2021. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco), ticked down from 2.8% yoy to 2.7% yoy. Both matched expectations.

      Looking at the main components, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in September (4.0%, compared with 4.1% in August), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.4%, compared with 2.3% in August), non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, stable compared with August) and energy (-6.0%, compared with -3.0% in August).

      Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

      UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 51.5, confidence drops and price pressures rise

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        UK manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in September, with the PMI finalizing at 51.5, down from 52.5 in August.

        According to Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the sector continues to expand at a “solid, albeit slightly slower, pace,” supported by steady domestic demand. However, growing concerns are emerging, as business confidence for the year ahead has dropped to its lowest level in nine months.

        The decline in optimism was notable, with only March 2020, just before COVID lockdowns, seeing a sharper fall. Uncertainty surrounding government policy ahead of the Autumn Budget is weighing heavily on sentiment, alongside broader concerns about global geopolitical risks and economic growth risks.

        Inflationary pressures have intensified, with input cost inflation reaching a 20-month high. Manufacturers are being forced to raise prices as a result, with rising freight costs cited as a major contributor. Ongoing supply chain disruptions, driven by the Red Sea crisis and global conflicts, are exacerbating these price increases, keeping inflationary pressures elevated across the sector.


        Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

        Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 45, output and orders decline

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 45.0 in September, down from 45.8 in August, marking a 9-month low and reflecting further deterioration in the region’s manufacturing sector. Germany posted the weakest performance with a 12-month low PMI of 40.6, while Spain led with a 4-month high of 53.0.

          According to Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, Eurozone industrial production is expected to decline by around -1% in Q3, with further contractions likely by year-end as new orders continue to fall sharply.

          While lower oil and gas prices helped reduce input costs in September, de la Rubia warned that this relief could be temporary given ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which may lead to another spike in energy prices.

          Adding to the challenges, supply-chain disruptions have worsened, despite weakening demand. For the first time since February, businesses reported longer wait times for goods, indicating that geopolitical tensions are affecting both supply chains and production across the Eurozone.

          Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

          Australia’s retail sales rises 0.7% mom in Aug, driven by record warm weather

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            Australia’s retail sales turnover increased by 0.7% mom in August, surpassing the expected rise of 0.4% mom. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales were up 3.1%. This stronger-than-expected growth was largely attributed to unusually warm weather, which boosted spending on items typically associated with spring.

            Robert Ewing, head of business statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), explained that “this year was the warmest August on record since 1910, which saw more spending on items typically purchased in spring.” Categories that saw increased demand included summer clothing, liquor, outdoor dining, hardware, gardening supplies, camping gear, and outdoor equipment.

            Full Australia’s retail sales release here.

            NZ business confidence surges as firms anticipate more RBNZ rate cuts

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion reveals significant improvement in business confidence in New Zealand during Q3. A net 5% of firms now expect deterioration in general economic conditions, a stark improvement from the net 40% expressing pessimism in the June quarter.

              Firms are still facing challenges in demand. A net 31% of businesses reported weaker trading activity. However, looking ahead, only a net 2% of firms expect activity to decline in the next quarter.

              This shift in sentiment comes as firms anticipate more supportive economic conditions following RNBZ’s decision to begin cutting interest rates in August, with expectations of further reductions in the coming year.

              Cost pressures remained present, with a slight increase in the proportion of firms reporting higher costs. However, pricing power has diminished significantly, with only a net 3% of firms able to pass on these costs to consumers, compared to 23% in the previous quarter.

              Full NZIER QSBO release here.

              Japan’s PMI manufacturing PMI finalized at 49.7, output and new orders in contraction

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Japan’s Manufacturing PMI for September was finalized at 49.7, marginally lower than August’s reading of 49.8, signaling continued contraction in the sector.

                According to Usamah Bhatti from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the data reflected “muted trends” in Japan’s manufacturing industry. Both output and new orders remained in negative territory, while the rate of job creation “slowed to a crawl.”

                While businesses expressed optimism about output growth over the next 12 months, the level of optimism softened, marking the weakest positive outlook since the end of 2022. Some manufacturers highlighted concerns over the “timing of a demand recovery,” reflecting cautiousness in the face of global and domestic uncertainties.

                Full Japan PMI manufacturing final release here.

                Japan’s Q3 Tankan shows stability in manufacturing, slight gains in non-manufacturing

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Japan’s Q3 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index remained steady at 13, unchanged from Q2 and in line with market expectations, indicating stability in the country’s manufacturing sector. Manufacturers’ outlook for the next three months improved slightly to 14, signaling cautious optimism about future business conditions.

                  Large Non-Manufacturers Index showed a modest rise to 34, up from 33 in June, surpassing expectations of 32. However, the outlook for non-manufacturers over the next three months dipped to 28, reflecting some uncertainty in the service and retail sectors.

                  Capital spending plans by big companies were revised down, with firms now expecting a 10.6% increase for the fiscal year ending in March 2025. This is below the median forecast of an 11.9% rise and down from an 11.1% forecast three months ago, suggesting some cooling in business investment intentions.

                  The Tankan survey results will be closely monitored by BoJ as it prepares for its monetary policy meeting on October 30-31, where it will set new growth and inflation forecasts.

                  Full Japan’s Tankan release here.

                  BoJ opinions highlight divergence over timing of future rate hikes

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    The Summary of Opinions from BoJ’s meeting on September 19 and 20 acknowledged that while outlook for Japan’s economic activity and inflation will guide future changes in monetary accommodation, policymakers remain vigilant about developments in overseas economies, particularly the US, and their potential impact on Japan’s financial markets and price stability.

                    With Yen’s depreciation retracing and import price pressures easing, one view noted that BoJ has “enough time to assess the situation”. Another opinion stressed that Japan’s economy is not at risk of “falling behind the curve” if interest rates are not raised swiftly. BoJ should not raise interest rate when “financial and capital markets are unstable”.

                    Another member suggested that while price stability has not yet been achieved and uncertainties persist, a shift to “full-fledged monetary tightening” would be undesirable at this stage.

                    However, a contrasting opinion within the BoJ indicated that if economic conditions remain stable and the outlook is confirmed, it would be preferable for the bank to raise rates “without taking too much time.”

                    This divergence highlights the ongoing debate within BoJ about the timing of future rate hikes.

                    Full BoJ summary of opinions here.

                    Fed’s Powell: No rush for rapid rate cuts

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear during a speech at the NABE conference that FOMC is “not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”

                      Powell noted that if the economy evolves as expected, Fed could enact “two more cuts” by the end of the year, reducing the policy rate by an additional half a percentage point. He reaffirmed that the US economy is on track for a continued slowdown in inflation, which should allow the Fed to reach a neutral interest rate level “over time.”

                      “Disinflation has been broad-based,” Powell said, citing recent data that shows progress towards Fed’s 2% inflation target.

                      However, Powell stressed that Fed is “not on any preset course” and will assess risks on both sides of the economy. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting,” he added.

                      Fed’s Goolsbee expects extended series of rate cuts as economy normalizes

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted Fed’s outlook for an extended period of monetary easing in an interview with FOX Business overnight.

                        He noted, “this is a process over a year or more that we’re trying to get the rates down to normal.”

                        He also pointed out that the Fed’s latest forecasts suggest “a lot of cuts” ahead, with policymakers aligned on this approach.

                        Fed has already begun easing, cutting its policy rate by 50bps at last meeting, bringing it to the 4.75%-5.00%.

                        Goolsbee refrained from committing to a specific rate cut size at the upcoming November meeting, stressing that the overall process of returning rates to more “normal” levels is the focus.

                        Additionally, Goolsbee noted cautionary signals in the labor market, though he remarked that the current unemployment rate of 4.2% appears to be at a sustainable level.

                        Fed’s Bostic sees gradual easing, possible dramatic cuts if job growth falter

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          In an interview with Reuters overnight, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic outlined his expectations for a gradual, “orderly” easing of monetary policy over the next 15 months. His baseline scenario sees policy rate falling to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% by the end of 2025, a level he considers neutral for the economy.

                          However, Bostic cautioned that a “much weaker” labor market could accelerate the pace of rate cuts. He emphasized that significant job market deterioration would “add urgency” to Fed’s easing process, prompting another “dramatic move” such as the 50bps rate cut enacted in September.

                          Bostic also noted his close attention to job growth, stating that as long as the economy continues to produce net jobs and monthly job creation stays above 100,000, the labor market will likely remain on stable footing. This threshold, in Bostic’s view, is the minimum needed to absorb new entrants into the labor force.

                          ECB’s Lagarde signals growing confidence in disinflation but economic recovery faces obstacles

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            During a hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament today, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that inflation might “temporarily increase” in Q4, largely due to the previous sharp declines in energy prices dropping out of the annual inflation rate calculations.

                            However, she added that “the latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner”. ECB will factor these dynamics into its next monetary policy meeting scheduled for October.

                            On the topic of economic growth, Lagarde acknowledged that the “suppressed level of some survey indicators” points to the challenges the recovery is facing. Nonetheless, she anticipates that the recovery will strengthen over time, as rising real incomes are expected to boost household consumption.

                            Lagarde reiterated ECB’s data-dependent approach and emphasized that ECB is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”.

                            Full remarks of ECB’s Lagrade here.

                            Swiss KOF rises to 105.5, economy slowly working out of trough

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Swiss KOF Economic Barometer edged higher in September, rising from 105.0 to 105.5, surpassing market expectations of 102.0. This modest increase reflects a slow but steady recovery in the Swiss economy, with KOF noting that “the Swiss economy is slowly working its way out of the trough.”

                              According to KOF, nearly all sectors show signs of a more favorable outlook. Manufacturing industry, in particular, has seen the most significant improvement, while financial and insurance services, construction, and other service sectors also show positive momentum.

                              Hospitality industry continues to maintain above-average prospects, with little change compared to prior months. On the demand side, consumer demand indicators remain stable and point to further growth. However, KOF highlighted that indicators for future foreign demand have weakened, suggesting potential challenges for Swiss exports going forward.

                              Full Swiss KOF release here.

                              China’s PMI data points to continued manufacturing contraction and weakening services sector

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                China’s economic data for September painted a mixed picture, with manufacturing remaining in contraction and services sector losing steam.

                                Official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly from 49.1 in August to 49.7, above expectations of 49.5 but still below the 50-mark, signaling contraction for the fifth consecutive month. Export orders continued to weaken, with the new manufacturing export order subindex dropping from 48.7 to 47.5.

                                Meanwhile, NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 to 50.0, marking the end of 20 straight months of expansion. Within the non-manufacturing sectors, construction showed a marginal improvement, with its subindex rising to 50.7, but services dipped into contraction territory, falling from 50.2 to 49.9.

                                NBS PMI Composite rose modestly from 50.1 to 50.4. According to the NBS, extreme weather events like typhoons and the conclusion of the summer travel season significantly impacted transport, culture, and entertainment sectors.

                                Caixin Manufacturing PMI told a similar story, dropping from 50.4 to 49.3, the lowest reading since July 2023, while Caixin Services PMI also underperformed, falling from 51.6 to 50.3, a 12-month low. Caixin’s Composite PMI slipped from 51.2 to 50.3, reflecting broad weakness in both manufacturing and services.

                                Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, noted, “market conditions in the manufacturing sector worsened in September, marked by a limited expansion in supply and a significant contraction in demand.” Business confidence also fell to its “lowest level in recent years”.

                                Full Caixin PMI manufacturing and services release.

                                NZ ANZ business confidence soars to 60.9, raising concerns of overreaction to RBNZ rate cuts

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index saw a significant rise in September, jumping from 50.6 to 60.9, reflecting growing optimism in the business sector.

                                  Key components of the survey also painted a positive picture. The own activity outlook rose from 37.1 to 45.3, while profit expectations surged from 8.0 to 22.2, suggesting a more upbeat economic environment.

                                  Although cost expectations fell slightly from 68.3 to 66.8, wage expectations edged up from 75.1 to 76.4. Pricing intentions also increased from 41.0 to 42.8, while inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.92%, marking the second consecutive month below 3%.

                                  ANZ highlighted that this survey underscores ” the risk that the economy’s response to lower interest rates could be more vigorous than is generally expected.”

                                  Inflation remains a concern. Firms are planning to raise prices by an average of 1.6% over the next three months, a notable increase from the June low of 1.2%. While wage growth has moderated from 4% in April to 3% now, and cost expectations have eased to 2.4%, inflationary pressures still require careful monitoring by RBNZ to ensure price stability.

                                  Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                                  Japan’s industrial output drops -3.3% mom in Aug, set for recovery in coming months

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Japan’s industrial production took a sharp hit in August, contracting by -3.3% mom, a significant miss compared to market expectations of -0.5% mom decline.

                                    The seasonally adjusted production index for factories and mines stood at 99.7, based on the 2020 benchmark of 100. Among the 15 industrial sectors surveyed, 12 experienced a decrease in output, with motor vehicles leading the decline at -10.6% MoM. This drop was largely attributed to operational disruptions at more than a dozen Toyota Motor Corp. plants, caused by Typhoon Shanshan.

                                    Despite this steep decline, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry maintained its assessment that industrial production remains “indecisive.” Manufacturers polled by the ministry are forecasting a rebound, with output expected to grow by 2.0% mom in September and further rise by 6.1% mom in October.

                                    On a brighter note, Japanese retail sales increased by 2.8% year-on-year yoy in August, surpassing median forecast of 2.6% yoy . Compared to the previous month, retail sales posted 0.8% mom increase, following 0.2% mom rise in July, indicating steady consumer demand.

                                     

                                     

                                    Canada’s GDP grows 0.2% mom in Jul essentially unchanged in Aug

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Canada’s GDP grew 0.2% mom in July, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Services-producing industries grew 0.2% mom while goods- producing industries rose 0.1% mom. Overall, 13 of 20 sectors expanded in July.

                                      Advance information indicates that real GDP was essentially unchanged in August. Increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

                                      Full Canada GDP release here.

                                      US PCE inflation falls to 2.2% in Aug, core PCE ticks up to 2.7%

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        US personal income rose USD 50.5B or 0.2% mom in August, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Personal spending rose USD 47.2B or 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom.

                                        PCE price index rose 0.1% mom, matched expectations while core PCE (excluding food and energy)price index rose 0.1% mom,m below expectation of 0.2% mom. Good prices fell -0.2% mom while services prices rose 0.2% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom and energy prices fell -0.8% mom.

                                        From the same month a year ago, PCE price growth slowed from 2.5% yoy to 2.2% yoy, below expectation of 2.3% yoy. Core PCE price growth accelerated fro 2.6% yoy to 2.7% yoy, matched expectations. Prices for goods decreased -0.9% yoy and prices for services increased 3.7% yoy. Food prices increased 1.1% yoy and energy prices -decreased 5.0% yoy.

                                        Full US personal income and outlays release here.

                                        Eurozone economic sentiment dips slightly to 96.2

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell slightly from 96.5 to 96.2 in September. Employment Expectations Indicator ticked up from 99.4 to 99.5. Economic Uncertainty Indicator rose from 17.5 to 17.8. Industry confidence fell from -9.9 to -10.9. Services confidence rose from 6.4 to 6.7. Consumer confidence rose from -13.4 to -129. Retail trade confidence fell from -7.9 to -8.5. Construction confidence rose from -6.3 to -5.8.

                                          EU Economic Sentiment Indicator was unchanged at 96.7. For the largest EU economies, the ESI worsened markedly in France (-1.4) and Germany (-1.2), while it improved significantly in Poland (+2.0), Spain (+1.9), Italy (+1.2) and, more moderately, in the Netherlands (+0.5).

                                          Full EZ ESI release here.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2025 All rights reserved.