Fed Mester: We’re going to need to do some 50 basis-point moves

    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated yesterday that Fed should “front-load” interest rate hikes in the first of of the year, and start quantitative tightening at the same time. “We have to recognize that inflation is very elevated. It is well above our goal. We have to do what we can with both our policy tools to get inflation under control,” she emphasized.

    “I think we’re going to need to do some 50 basis-point moves,” Mester added. “I don’t want to presuppose every meeting from here to July, but I do think we need to be more aggressive earlier rather than later.”

    US oil inventories dropped -2.5m barrels, WTI extending rebound

      US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -2.5m barrels in the week ending March 18, larger than expectation of -0.7m decline. At 413.4m barrels, oil inventories are about -13% below the five year average for this time of year.

      gasoline inventories dropped -2.9m barrels. Distillate dropped -2.1m barrels. Propane/propylene rose 0.3m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -6.7m barrels.

      WTI crude oil’s rebound from 93.98 resumes today and it’s now pressing 61.8% retracement of 131.82 to 93.98 at 117.36. Sustained break there could pave the way back to 131.82 high. And in any case, further rally will now remain in favor as long as 109.30 minor support holds.

      While the correction from 131.82 was deep, WTI held well above 85.92 resistance turned support. It also drew notable support from 55 day EMA, keeping medium term outlook bullish. Thus, while the corrective pattern from 131.82 might still extend with another falling leg, an eventual upside breakout is still favored.

      Nikkei gained 3%, broke near term structural resistance

        Nikkei staged another power full rally today after a gap up, gained 3.00% or 816.05 pts to 28040.16. Export-oriented shares led the rally, with help from recent decline in Yen change rate. Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also promised to carry out solid counter-measures for rising prices of oil, raw materials and goods, to revive Japan’s economy”.

        Nikkei’s break of 27880.69 resistance argues that corrective pull back from 30795.66 might have finished at 24681.74 already. Sustained of falling channel resistance (now at 26650) will affirm this bullish case and pave the way to retest 30795.77 high.

        In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 16358.19 to 30795.77 at 25280.61 is seen as being defended already, despite a brief breach earlier this month. The break above 55 week EMA is also a positive sign. Up trend from 16358.19 might be ready to resume during next quarter.

        GBP/AUD heading to 1.74 as near term fall resumes

          GBP/AUD’s fall from 1.9218 resumed by breaking through 1.7729 support last today. For now, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.8173 resistance holds, next target is 1.7412 low.

          Current fall from 1.9812 is seen as resuming the medium term down trend from 2.0840 (2020 high). Break of 1.7412 will target 61.8% projection of 2.0840 to 1.7412 from 1.9218 at 1.7099.

          UK CPI rose to 6.2% yoy in Feb, core CPI up to 5.2% yoy

            UK CPI rose 0.8% mom in February, above expectation of 0.6% mom. That’s also the largest monthly rise since 2009. On a 12-month basis, CPI surged from 5.5% to 6.2% yoy, above expectation of 5.9% yoy. That’s the highest on record since 1997, and the highest rate is historic modelled series since March 1992. CPI core also rose from 4.4% yoy to 5.2% yoy, above expectation of 4.8% yoy.

            Full CPI release here.

            Also release, PPI input was at 1.4% mom, 14.6% yoy in February, versus expectation of 1.2% mom, 13.9% yoy. PPI output was at 0.8% mom, 10.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 10.2% yoy. PPI output core was at 0.7% mom, 9.9% yoy, versus expectation of 0.9% mom, 10.0% yoy.

            AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY extends up trend, break long term resistance

              Both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY ride on broad based weakness in Yen and surge strongly this week. More important, both have breached key long term resistance levels.

              As for AUD/JPY, there might be some initial rejection by 90.29 resistance. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 85.78 resistance turned support holds. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 59.85 to 85.78 from 78.77 at 94.79.

              More importantly, AUD/JPY’s rise from 59.85 should be reversing the whole down trend from 105.42 (2013 high), which has completed in a three wave structure. Firm break of 94.79 would set the stage for 100% projection at 104.70, which is close the top of a two decade range at 105.42/107.88.

              Similarly, NZD/JPY also breaks 83.90 resistance. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 80.17 resistance turned support holds. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 59.49 to 80.17 from 75.22 at 88.00.

              Sustained break of 88.00 will pave the way to 100% projection at 95.90, which is also at the top of two decade range at 94.01/87.74.

              Fed Mester expects some 50bps hikes this year

                Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a speech yesterday, “in my view, inflation, which is at a 40-year high, is the number one challenge for the U.S. economy at this time.”

                “Given the underlying strength in the economy and the current very low level of the funds rate, I find it appealing to front-load some of the needed increases earlier rather than later in the process because it puts policy in a better position to adjust if the economy evolves differently than expected,” she said.

                Mester expects interest rate to be at around 2.50% by the end of 2022. That would require some 50bps hikes at the upcoming meetings.

                Fed Daly: It’s time to tighten policy in the US

                  San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a virtual event yesterday, “even though we have these uncertainties around Ukraine, and we have the uncertainties around the pandemic, it’s still time to tighten policy in the United States.”

                  “Inflation has persisted for long enough that people are starting to wonder how long it will persist,” she said. “I’m already focused on let’s make sure this doesn’t get embedded and we see those longer-term inflation expectations drift up.”

                  “In addition to pushing up wage inflation, which could ultimately push up price inflation, putting us in sort of a vicious cycle,” she said, “it’s just not a very sustainable way to manage the economy.”

                  US 10-yr yield eyes 2.4, but faces key long term channel resistance ahead

                    US 10-year yield gaps up today and it’s trading up 0.068 at 2.383 at the time of writing. An immediate focus is 100% projection of 1.343 to 2.065 from 1.682 at 2.404. Sustained break there would be an important sign of upside acceleration. But in any case, break of 2.135 support is needed to signal short term topping, or outlook will stay bullish.

                    At the same time, we’d like to point out that TNX would be facing a key multi-decade channel resistance ahead. The channel resistance is at around 2.65. Sustained break there will carry rather significant long term bullish implication, which could be a signal of trend reversal.

                    ECB Villeroy: We should not overreact to short-term volatility in energy prices

                      ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said today, “it is indeed time to take our foot off the accelerator, as decided during our last governing council.”

                      “That said, we should not overreact to short-term volatility in energy prices, and instead focus more on underlying inflation and on the medium term,” he added.

                      ECB de Guindos: No stagflation, inflation expectations not deanchored

                        ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said today, “we can so far dismiss the possibility of stagflation because even in the weakest scenario we are looking at growth of around 2% in 2022.”

                        De Guindos also said higher energy prices are pushing inflation to record high. However, There is no indication that inflation expectations are becoming “deanchored”.

                        CAD/JPY marches higher, targeting 96.87 next

                          CAD/JPY’s rally accelerates again today and hits as high as 95.68. Further rise is expected as long as 94.34 minor support holds. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 87.42 to 92.16 from 89.21 at 96.87 next. Below 93.34 minor support will bring consolidations, but retreat should be contained above 92.16 resistances turned support to bring up trend resumption.

                          Also, noted that the up trend from 73.80 could either be a leg inside the pattern from 68.38, or the start of a long term up trend. Hence, 106.48 high is the next medium term target.

                          New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped to 92.1, lowest since 2008

                            New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped from 99.1 to 92.1 in Q1, hitting the lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008. Present conditions index dropped from 94.8 to 90.1. Expected conditions index dropped from 101.9 to 93.5. One-year economic outlook dropped from -11.2 to -22.8. Five-year economic outlook dropped from 10.0 to 0.8.

                            Westpac said:”Households have reported that their financial position has deteriorated as the economy has been buffeted by a multitude of headwinds. That includes rising consumer prices and higher mortgage rates, both of which are squeezing households’ disposable incomes. The rapid spread of Omicron is also likely to have dampened confidence in recent weeks.

                            Full release here.

                            BoJ Kuroda: We need to patiently maintain our powerful monetary easing

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated to the parliament today that it’s still premature to discuss details on stimulus exit. “Given recent price developments, we need to patiently maintain our powerful monetary easing,” he said.

                              Kuroda said consumer prices are likely to rise. However, he warned that “instead of leading to higher wages and corporate profits, such cost-push inflation will weigh on the economy in the long run by hurting corporate profits and households’ real income.”

                              Fed Powell hints on 50bps hike next, 10-year yield surges

                                US benchmark treasury yield jumped sharply overnight after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave green light to more aggressive tightening pace. He said, “there is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level, and then to move to more restrictive levels if that is what is required to restore price stability.”

                                In particular, he added, “if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so.”

                                Fed fund futures are now indicating 61.6% chance of a 50bps hike at May 4 meeting to 0.75-100%, up from 43.9% a day ago.

                                10-year yield rose 0.167 to close at 2.315. Near term outlook in TNX will stay bullish as long as 2.065 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 0.398 to 1.765 from 1.343 at 2.710.

                                Fed Bostic penciled in only six hikes this year

                                  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “I penciled in six rate hikes for 2022 and two more for 2023,”

                                  “I recognize that I am toward the bottom of the distribution relative to my colleagues, but the elevated levels of uncertainty are front forward in my mind and have tempered my confidence that an extremely aggressive rate path is appropriate today,” he added.

                                  “The risks go both ways,” Bostic said. “Should demand falter in the face of economic uncertainty or removal of monetary policy accommodation, then the appropriate path may be shallower than I currently project. But there are other developments, such as shifts in supply strategies, that could mean higher costs and thus motivate a steeper policy path than I expect.”

                                  Bundesbank: Significantly weaker recovery expected in Q2

                                    In the monthly report, Bundesbank said “significantly weaker recovery expected in the second quarter”. The effects of Russia’s attack on Ukraine are “likely to have a noticeable impact on economic activity in Germany from March”. Supply chain problems are likely to “intensify again”, and energy prices have “risen massively”.

                                    “From today’s perspective, the strong recovery planned for the second quarter is likely to be significantly weaker”. Also, the extent of the effects of war is “very uncertain and depends on how events unfold”.

                                    Full release here.

                                    ECB Lagarde: Even in the bleakest scenario, there is no stagflation

                                      ECB President Christine Lagarde said that Russia invasion of Ukraine will have “consequences” for growth. However, “even in the bleakest scenario, with second-round effects, with a boycott of gas and petrol and a worsening of the war that goes on for a long time — even in those scenarios we have 2.3% growth.” Hence, “we are not seeing elements of stagflation now,” she said.

                                      Lagarde also reiterated that the US and Eurozone are in “difference universes”, at a “different stage” in the economic cycle, with “different starting points”. “We in the euro area are at negative rates, while the U.S. never went below zero.”

                                      ECB de Guindos: No stagflation but inflation to remain higher for longer

                                        In an interview with Handelsblatt, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said Eurozone is not heading towards stagflatoin. “In the most recent projections, even in our most adverse scenario for the current year, we still foresee growth of more than 2%, so no stagflation,” he said. “Inflation, however, is likely to remain higher for a longer period than expected before the war.”

                                        De Guindos also said what matters for the central bank now is the extent to which wages respond. “If wage increases are too high, they can push prices up even more and contribute to persistently higher inflation.” But he added, “We have not seen any signs of that yet”.

                                        He added last week’s statement “delink the potential interest rate hikes from the asset purchase programme”. The timing of rate hike “all depends on the data”. “The price shock in energy and commodities that we’re currently experiencing is making many firms and workers worse off. Fiscal policy should provide temporary, targeted support to help reduce the burden. This would also reduce the danger of a wage-price spiral,” he said.

                                        Full interview here.

                                        Germany PPI up 1.4% mom, 25.9% yoy in Feb, Russia invasion impact not yet included

                                          Germany PPI rose 1.4% mom, 25.9% yoy in February, below expectation of 1.7% mom, 26.1% yoy, comparing to January’s 2.2% mom, 25.0% yoy.

                                          Destatis said, “the recent price development in the context of Russia’s attack on Ukraine are not yet included in the results… Mainly responsible for the increase of producer prices compared to February 2021 still was the price increase of energy.”

                                          Energy prices as a whole rose 68.0% yoy. Price of intermediate goods rose 21.0% yoy. Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose 7.4% yoy. Prices of durable consumer goods rose 6.7% yoy. Capital goods prices rose 5.5% yoy.

                                          Full release here.