Fed surprise markets by -50bps cut to 1.00-1.25%

    Fed surprised the markets by cutting federal funds rate by -50bps to 1.00 to 1.25% in an unscheduled meeting today. FOMC warned that “coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity” even though fundamentals of the economy “remain strong”. The decision is made by unanimous vote.

    Full statement below.

    Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

    The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1­1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.

    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

    BoJ Kuroda pushes deregulation and structural reforms

      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that “a mix of fiscal and monetary policy isn’t enough” to boost the economy. It’s also important to “proceed with deregulation and structural reforms to heighten Japan’s medium- and long-term growth potential.”

      Kuroda repeated his view that the ultra-look monetary policy could increase the effect of fiscal stimulus. However, he also emphasized “our monetary easing efforts are aimed at achieving our price target, not at helping fund government spending. There needs to be a clear line drawn on this point,”

      Executive Director Eiji Maeda told the parliament that “current ultra-loose monetary environment is stimulating the economy by spurring capital expenditure and housing investment.” That will “push up” household income and asset prices. But policymakers are also “mindful” on the “excessive declines” in super-long yields. He warned that could ‘hurt public sentiment and economic activity by lowering the interest life insurers and pension funds earn from their investment”.

      US retail sales down -1.1% mom in Dec, ex-auto sales down -1.1% mom

        US retail sales declined -1.1% mom to USD 677.1B in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -1.1% mom to USD 552.7B, versus expectation of -0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales fell -0.8% mom to USD 617.6B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales contracted -0.7% mom to USD 493.1B.

        Total sales for the 12 months of 2022 were up 9.2% from 2021. For the October through December period, sales were up 6.7% from the same period a years ago.

        Full release here.

        China PBoC to step up credit support to the economy

          China’s PBoC Governor Yi Gang indicated the central bank will step up credit support to the economy. Yi said during a meeting with commercial banks that capital replenishment will be promoted to increase bank’s lending ability. Additionally, countercyclical adjustments will be stepped up to ensure growth in money supply and social financing.

          Markets are expecting PBoC to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) tomorrow, for the third time since it’s introduced the benchmark in August. Yi urged lenders to reference the LPR to set their own lending rates.

          San Francisco Fed: It’s 10-yr 3-mth spread that predicts most accurately, not 10-yr 2yr spread

            The San Francisco Fed released an interesting economic letter titled “Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions” yesterday.

            There it’s noted that yield curve inversion has been a “reliable predictor of recessions”. However, the difference between ten-year and three-month Treasury rates is the most useful term spread for forecasting recessions. That is, not the ten-year and two-year yield spread that’s most referred to.

            Also, the letter noted that currently, the ten-year and three-month spread is still at a “comfortable distance from a yield curve inversion.” If the paper reflects the norm of FOMC member’s thoughts, the yield curve flattening shouldn’t be much of a curve for keeping rate hikes continue.

            Full article here.

            ECB Knot: Financial markets extraordinarily optimistic on inflation

              Speaking at a Dutch parliamentary hearing, ECB Governing Council member and Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot highlighted the optimistic stance of financial markets about inflation, and warned about the potential pitfalls.

              “Financial markets are extraordinarily optimistic and are expecting inflation to drop as fast as it rose. For next year even rate decreases are already priced in,” Knot observed.

              However, the Dutch central bank chief noted that this rosy outlook might invite unforeseen challenges, especially if the path to inflation stabilization necessitates a longer than anticipated period of monetary tightening. This could potentially reignite tension within the financial markets.

              “Exactly in such a situation, a longer than expected period of monetary tightening to keep inflation in check will increase the risk of renewed stress on financial markets,” he cautioned.

              Canada Freeland won’t meet USTR Lighthizer until more technical discussions are done

                Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said that she won’t hold NAFTA talks with USTR Robert Lighthizer until some more work is completed. She told reporters that “we decided that in order to have another productive conversation, it would be best to give our officials some time to hold technical discussions.”

                It’s believed that dairy, cultural protection and dispute resolution mechanism remained the deadlocks. But Freeland said the talks have “absolutely not” hit a stalemate. And even though she won’t be present, Canada’s chief NAFTA negotiator, as well as the country’s ambassador to the United States, will fly back to Washington on Wednesday night.

                US NFP grows 275k, unemployment rate rises to 3.9%, average hourly earning up just 0.1% mom

                  US non-farm payroll employment rose 275k in February, above expectation of 200k. However, January’s figure was revised sharply lower from 353k to 229k.

                  Unemployment rate jumped from 3.7% to 3.9%, above expectation of being unchanged at 3.7%. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5% for the third consecutive month.

                  Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours.

                  Full US NFP release here.

                  UK GDP rose 0.1% mom, industrial and manufacturing production contracted

                    Some volatility is seen in Sterling in early part of European session. It firstly declined against Euro, then was limited mildly by ECJ’s ruling on Brexit revocation. But overall movements are limited and not even a batch of weak economic data was economy to kick the Pound out of range.

                    UK GDP rose 0.1% mom in October, matched expectations. For the rolling three months Aug to Oct, growth to 0.4%, down from 0.6% from Jul to Sep. The slow down was even more noticeable, comparing to 0.7% recorded in both May to Jul and Jun to Aug periods.

                    Services was the biggest contributor to growth in the Aug to Oct period, up 0.23%. Production rose merely 0.05% while construction rose 0.08%.

                    Also from UK, industrial production dropped -0.6% mom, -0.8% yoy in October versus expectation of 0.1% mom, -0.2% yoy. Manufacturing production dropped -0.9% mom, -1.0% yoy versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 0.0% yoy. Trade deficit widened to GBP -11.9B versus expectation of GBP -10.5B. Construction output dropped -0.2% mom versus expectation of -0.4% mom.

                    Japan Tankan: Large manufacturing sentiments deteriorated for another quarter

                      The BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed notable worsening in manufacturer’s sentiments in Q2.

                      The Larger Manufacturing Index dropped to 21, down from 24 and missed expectation of 23. It’s also a second straight quarterly decline from Q4’s 26, the first time since 2012. Large Manufacturer outlook rose to 21, up from 20.

                      Large Non-Manufacturing index rose to 24, up from 23, beat expectation of 23. Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook rose to 21, up from 20 but missed expectation of 22.

                      Large all industry capex rose 13.6%, beat expectation of 0.2%.

                      Eurozone CPI rose to 2% in May, unemployment rate dropped to 8% in Apr

                        Eurozone CPI jumped further to 2.0% yoy in May, up from 1.6% yoy, above expectation of 1.9% yoy. Core CPI rose to 0.9% yoy, up from 0.7% yoy, matched expectations. Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate (13.1%, compared with 10.4% in April), followed by services (1.1%, compared with 0.9% in April), non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.4% in April) and food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, stable compared with April).

                        Unemployment rate dropped to 8.0% in April, down from 8.1%, below expectation of 8.1%. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.3%.

                        Canada employment grew 54.7k in Dec, way above expectation

                          Canada employment grew 54.7k in December, much better than expectation of 24.5k. Full-time employment rose 123k while part-time employment dropped -68k. Total hours worked dropped -0.3%, first decline since June.

                          Unemployment rate dropped from 6.0% to 5.9%, better than expectation of 6.0%. Labor force participation rate held steady at 65.3%.

                          Full release here.

                          BoJ keeps interest rates unchanged, scales back emergency funding

                            Under the yield curve control, BoJ kept short-term policy interest rate unchanged at -0.10%, and 10-year JGB target at around 0% without upper limit to purchases. It will continue to buy ETFs and J-REITs with upper limits of JPY 12T and JPY 180B respectively on annual paces.

                            The Special Program to Support Financing in Response to the Novel Coronavirus is extended in part by six months until the end of September 2022. The additional purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds will be complete at the end of March 2022 as scheduled with outstanding amounts gradually drop back to pre-pandemic levels.

                            BoJ said, “Japan’s economy is projected to continue growing at a pace, albeit slower, above its potential growth rate.” Core CPI is “likely to increase moderately in positive territory in the short run,” and “projected to increase gradually as a trend”.

                            The course of COVID-19 continues to warrant attention”. There are “high uncertainties over whether the resumption of economic activity can progress smoothly”. Attentions should also be paid to risk that “effects of supply-side constraints seen in some areas will be amplified or prolonged.”

                            Full statement here.

                            GBP/AUD resuming rally after dovish RBA minutes

                              Australian Dollar trades mildly lower after RBA minutes indicated the possibility of a pause in tightening at next meeting. On the other hand, Sterling (and Euro too) is supported by funds flow from Swiss Franc. But there are some uncertainties for the Pound ahead with UK CPI and BoE rate decisions scheduled later in the week.

                              Technically, GBP/AUD is resuming the near term rise by breaking last week’s high at 1.8316. At the same time, rise from 1.7218 is likely resuming the whole up trend from 1.5925. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.8074 support holds, even in case of retreat. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.5925 to 1.8272 from 1.7218 at 1.8668. Nevertheless, break of 1.8074 support will delay the bullish case and bring some consolidations before another rally attempt.

                              BoJ opinions: Important to firmly continue with pandemic policy responses

                                In the Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s March 18-19 meeting, it’s said, “for the time being, it is important for the Bank to firmly continue with policy responses to the impact of COVID-19. The Bank should continue to provide support for financing, mainly of firms, and ensure stability in financial markets.”

                                BoJ’s policy actions decided at the meeting “have ensured the sustainability and nimbleness of policy measures that are necessary to achieve the price stability target”. And, it’s “desirable” for the framework to continue to be the basic guideline for “a few years to come”.

                                Long-term interest rates were allowed to move in a wider range of plus and minus 0.25%. “This flexibility is desirable since it prevents arbitrageurs and speculators who had lost their profit opportunities from exiting the bond market and helps maintain the price stabilization function in the market.”

                                The revision on ETFS purchases were made “to conduct purchases more effectively”. It’s necessary to “avoid a misunderstanding that the Bank has adopted a less accommodative stance on monetary policy.

                                The “inflation-overshooting commitment” implies that monetary easing will be continued for a “long period”. As a “deflationary risk” is a “matter of concern at present”, the commitment shows BoJ’s “strong stance that it will not head toward an exit easily.”

                                Full summary of opinions here.

                                Bundesbank: Germany just went through temporary period of weakness

                                  Bundesbank’s monthly economic report noted that the economic growth in Germany remains fundamentally intact. Slowdown during the summer was mainly due to car makers. And, “as soon as the conversion problems in the automotive industry have been solved, the pace of macroeconomic expansion should pick up again significantly”

                                  It also said “continued positive mood of businesses, which according to the Ifo Institute’s surveys has recently also improved in industry, points to a temporary period of weakness.”

                                  Both Bundesbank and the Economy Ministry expect manufacturing to shift to a higher gear in the common months.

                                  Canada’s CPI slows to 2.9% yoy in Jan, ex-gasoline down to 3.2%

                                    Canada’s CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to 2.9% yoy in January, much lower than expectation of 3.3% yoy. The largest contributor to headline deceleration was lower year-over-year prices for gasoline (-4.0%). Excluding gasoline, CPI also fell from 3.5% yoy to 3.2% yoy. Food prices growth also fell from 4.7% yoy to 3.4% yoy. On a monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged, following a -0.3% mom decline in December.

                                    Looking at the core measures, CPI median fell from 3.5% yoy to 3.3% yoy, below expectation of 3.6% yoy. CPI trimmed fell from 3.7% yoy to 3.4% yoy, below expectation of 3.6% yoy. CPI common fell from 3.9% yoy to 3.4% yoy, below expectation of 3.8% yoy.

                                    Full Canada CPI release here.

                                    DOW targeting 26537 support after gap down

                                      DOW gapped lower today and hit as low as 26579.14 so far. The decline then slowed as seen in 10-min chart. But that shouldn’t be taken as indication of bottoming yet. A break above today’s high (the lower end of the gap) at 27102.14 is needed to be the first sign of stabilization. Meanwhile, break of 27370.16 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall should be seen to 26537.01 next.

                                      As we noted before, current fall is, for now, seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 29199.35. Break of 26537.01 might be seen as completing a double top reversal pattern. But we believe the key support lies in cluster at 24971.03, which is close to 25000 psychological level, and more importantly 38.2% retracement of 18213.65 to 29199.35 at 25002.81.

                                      This could be the 25000 cluster could be the level to test as reaction to US election results. As long as it holds, rise from 18213.65 should be still in position to resume, probably rather quickly. But sustained break will open up the way for near term bearish reversal.

                                      Australia’s Westpac leading index climbs to 0.3%, signaling stabilization, not an upturn

                                        Westpac Leading Index in Australia showed an encouraging rise from -0.39% to 0.30% in November, marking the first positive, above-trend reading since mid-2022. However, Westpac cautioned that this uptick might be influenced by temporary factors. Also, the shift in underlying momentum, as RBA’s tightening begins to slow, is seen more as a stabilization rather than the start of an upturn.

                                        Further, Westpac highlighted weaker conditions in the domestic sphere, particularly impacting the household sector. This weakness is expected to continue into the first half of next year. Hence, Westpac anticipates that barring a “truly disastrous” December quarter CPI update, RBA is likely to maintain its current policy in the upcoming February meeting.

                                        Full Australia Westpac leading index release here.

                                        Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 52.3, economy slowed further

                                          Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 51.1 in January, down from December’s 53.1. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.3, down from prior month’s 53.3. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI Composite was unchanged at 56.5, Germany dropped to 4-month low at 53.8, France dropped to 9-month low at 52.7, Italy dropped to 12-month low at 50.1, and Spain dropped to 11-month low at 47.9.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                          “The eurozone economy has slowed further in January after seeing growth weaken in the final quarter of 2021…. Spain has been the hardest hit, falling back into contraction, while Italy has seen business activity stall, in both cases linked to declining service sector output. France is meanwhile recording the weakest expansion since last April. Germany is bucking the slowdown trend, however, providing a welcome ray of light to suggest that the impact of Omicron will be both shorter and less severe than prior virus waves….

                                          “A key concern is that inflationary pressures continue to build, with soaring energy prices likely to add further to upward price pressures in coming months. Households are already being squeezed and firms face further cost rises. Tensions in Ukraine also pose a further downside risk to the outlook, with any escalation of the situation likely to further dampen business confidence.”

                                          Full release here.