New Zealand’s goods exports rises 7.5% yoy in Oct, goods imports up 3.0% yoy

    New Zealand’s goods exports increased by 7.5% yoy in October, reaching NZD 5.8B, while total goods imports rose by 3.0% yoy to NZD 7.3B. This resulted in a trade deficit of NZD -1.54B, which, although significant, was better than the expected deficit of NZD -1.76B.

    Key export markets demonstrated robust growth, with exports to China rising by NZD 113m (8.4% yoy), Australia up by NZD 60m (8.3% yoy), the US surging NZD 90m (15% yoy), the EU increasing NZD 48m (18% yoy), and Japan gaining NZD 19m (6.7% yoy).

    On the import side, trends were more mixed. Imports from China and the EU declined, falling NZD 42m (-2.7% yoy) and NZD 35m (-3.2% yoy) respectively. However, imports from the US surged by NZD 459m (79% yoy), while South Korea and Australia saw notable increases of NZD 148m (32% yoy) and NZD 58m (7.5% yoy) respectively.

    Full NZ trade balance release here.

    New Zealand’s Q3 retail sales down -0.1% qoq, ex-auto sales slumps -0.8% qoq

      New Zealand’s retail sales volume for Q3 showed a marginal decline of -0.1% qoq, a better outcome than the expected -0.5% qoq contraction. However, the data revealed underlying weakness, as retail sales excluding autos fell by a sharper-than-expected -0.8% qoq, missing the forecast of -0.3% qoq.

      A breakdown of the data shows that 10 out of 15 retail industries experienced lower sales volumes during the quarter.

      Meanwhile sales value dropped significantly by -0.7% qoq. Regionally, 15 of the 16 regions reported lower seasonally adjusted sales values, underscoring the broad-based nature of the decline.

      As Michael Heslop, an economic indicators spokesperson, noted, “Retail activity was flat in the September 2024 quarter, with a decrease in spending in most retail industries being offset by an increase in motor vehicles and electrical and electronic goods.”

      Full New Zealand retail sales release here.

      US PMI composite jumps to 55.3, accelerating growth and cooling inflation

        The US economy showed signs of stronger momentum in November as PMI data highlighted robust activity in the services sector. PMI Manufacturing improved slightly to 48.8 from 48.5, remaining in contraction but showing some stabilization. Meanwhile, PMI Services surged to a 32-month high of 57.0 from 55.0, boosting the Composite PMI to 55.3, up from 54.1, the highest in 31 months.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted, “The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half-year high.” Optimism was fueled by expectations of lower interest rates and a more pro-business stance from the incoming administration, which supported increased output and stronger order book inflows.

        Economic growth appears to be accelerating in Q4, with the survey indicating a pickup in overall activity. At the same time, inflationary pressures are cooling. The survey’s price gauge pointed to only a marginal increase in prices across goods and services, signaling that consumer inflation is running well below Fed’s 2% target.

        Full US PMI flash release here.

        Canada retail sales rises 0.4% mom in Sep, 0.7% mom in Oct

          Canada’s retail sales rose by 0.4% mom in September to CAD 66.9B, slightly above market expectations of a 0.3% mom increase. Gains were observed in six out of nine subsectors, with food and beverage retailers leading the growth.

          Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and motor vehicle-related sectors, surged by a robust 1.4% mom, highlighting strength in consumer discretionary spending.

          For Q3, retail sales climbed 0.9%, with a 1.3% increase in volume terms, suggesting solid economic activity during the period.

          The advance estimate for October indicates a further 0.7% mom rise, reinforcing signs of resilience in consumer demand.

          Full Canada’s retail sales release here.

          UK PMI composite fall to 49.9, slips into contraction as post-budget sentiment worsens

            UK economic activity weakened in November, with the Composite PMI falling from 51.8 to 49.9, its first contraction in 13 months. Manufacturing PMI declined to a 9-month low of 48.6, down from 49.9, while Services PMI hit a 13-month low at 50.0, down from 52.0.

            Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that businesses are reporting falling output and employment cuts for the second consecutive month. Post-budget sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with optimism now at its lowest since late 2022. Companies have expressed significant concern over the announced increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.

            The November data suggest the economy is contracting modestly, with GDP estimated to decline at a quarterly rate of -0.1%. Williamson warned of the potential for further job losses unless sentiment improves.

            On the inflation front, selling price growth slowed to its lowest post-pandemic rate, but elevated wage pressures in services remain a challenge, likely tempering the case for aggressive rate cuts by BoE.

            Full UK PMI flash release here.

            Eurozone PMI signals stagflation as both manufacturing and services contract

              Eurozone economic activity weakened sharply in November, with PMI Manufacturing falling to 45.2 from 46.0 and PMI Services dropping to 49.2 from 51.6, pushing Composite PMI to a 10-month low of 48.1, down from 50.0. For the first time since January, both sectors recorded output declines, reflecting broader economic struggles.

              Country-level data painted a bleak picture. France saw its Composite PMI drop to 44.8, with Manufacturing PMI at 43.2 and Services PMI at 45.7—both hitting 10-month lows. Germany’s Composite PMI fell to 47.3, a 9-month low, with Services PMI sliding into contraction at 49.4 despite a slight improvement in Manufacturing PMI, which edged up to 43.2.

              Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank highlighted “stagflationary” conditions, with falling activity alongside rising input and output prices driven by service sector costs and wage growth. He pointed to political instability in France and Germany and global uncertainties, including potential US tariffs, as key contributors.

              Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

              UK retail sales drop sharply by -0.7% mom in Oct, but broader trends show resilience

                UK retail sales volumes plunged by -0.7% mom in October, significantly underperforming expectations of a -0.3% mom decline. Also, volumes remained -1.5% below their pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

                On a broader basis, retail activity was more encouraging. Sales volumes increased by 0.8% in the three months to October compared to the preceding three months. When measured against the same period last year, sales volumes grew by 2.5%. This represents the strongest annualized growth since March 2022, despite a downward revision of September’s annual figure from 2.6% to 2.1%.

                Full UK retail sales release here.

                Japan’s CPI eases to 2.3% in Oct, core-core rises to 2.3%

                  Japan’s inflation data for October revealed persistent and broadening price pressures. Core CPI (excluding food) eased slightly to 2.3% yoy, down from 2.4% yoy but exceeding expectations of 2.2% yoy. This marked the 31st consecutive month core CPI has stayed at or above BoJ’s 2% target.

                  Core-core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose from 2.1% yoy to 2.3% yoy, underscoring renewed strength in underlying inflation. Headline CPI moderated from 2.5% to 2.3%, partly due to slowing energy price gains, which decelerated sharply to 2.3% yoy from 6.0% yoy in September. However, food prices surged 3.8% yoy, accelerating from 3.1% yoy, while services prices edged up to 1.5% yoy from 1.3% yoy.

                  The combination of steady inflation momentum, recovering consumer spending, and Ten’s renewed weakening bolsters the argument for a BoJ rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting in December.

                   

                  Japan’s PMI manufacturing falls to 49.0, services rises to 50.2

                    Japan’s PMI Manufacturing index edged down to 49.0 from 49.2 in November, signaling a deepened contraction in the sector. In contrast, PMI Services rose slightly to 50.2 from 49.7, indicating a renewed, albeit modest, expansion. PMI Composite improved marginally but remained below the neutral mark at 49.8, up from 49.6.

                    Usama Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that demand conditions were “stagnant,” while employment grew at the fastest rate in four months. Price pressures persisted across sectors, driven by rising raw material costs and Yen’s weakness. Firms responded with sharper increases in prices charged for goods and services, aiming to pass on these higher cost burdens to customers.

                    Full Japan PMI release here.

                    Australia’s PMI composite falls to 49.4, second contraction in three months

                      Australia’s PMI Manufacturing improved sharply from 47.3 to 49.3 in November, marking a six-month high but remaining in contraction territory. Conversely, PMI Services index dropped from 51.0 to 49.6, hitting a 10-month low and signaling contraction. PMI Composite fell from 50.2 to 49.4, its lowest level in 10 months, indicating a slight overall contraction in private sector output for the second time in three months.

                      Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted the significance of the services sector’s slowdown. “The November S&P Global Flash Australia PMI posted the lowest reading since January, bringing the fourth-quarter average thus far below that of the prior quarter,” Pan said.

                      The report also noted that easing capacity pressures and subdued activity contributed to slower employment growth, which fell further below the long-term average. In addition, selling price inflation eased as businesses showed caution in raising charges. This combination of softer employment growth and reduced price pressures supports expectations of lower interest rates.

                      Full Australia PMI release here.

                      US initial jobless claims falls to 213k, vs exp 220k

                        US initial jobless claims fell -6k to 213k in the week ending November 16, below expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -4k to 218k.

                        Continuing claims rose 36k to 1908k in the week ending November 9, highest since November 13, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5k to 1879k, highest since November 27, 2021.

                        Full US jobless claims release here.

                        Fed’s Barkin avoids prejudging December decision, cites vulnerability to cost shocks

                          Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told the Financial Times he would not “prejudge” the rate decision at the December meeting. He acknowledged the dual challenges of elevated inflation and labor market strains.

                          “If you’ve got inflation staying above our target, that makes the case to be careful about reducing rates,” he said. “If you’ve got unemployment accelerating, that makes the case to be more forward-leaning.”

                          Barkin emphasized growing vulnerability to cost shocks which he said was higher than it might have been five years ago. He also pointed to business concerns over potential inflationary pressures stemming from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and deportation policies

                          However, he added that Trump’s plans to boost domestic energy production could have a counteracting “disinflationary” effect.

                          While businesses are apprehensive about economic policy changes under the new administration, Barkin underscored that the Fed would not preemptively adjust its policy.

                          “We shouldn’t try to solve it before it happens,” he remarked.

                          ECB’s Stournaras supports continuous rate cuts until neutral level reached

                            Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras expressed strong support for further monetary easing, suggesting a rate cut at every meeting moving forward until the policy rate reaches the “neutral rate,” estimated at around 2%.

                            Speaking with Bloomberg TV, Stournaras described the proposed quarter-point reduction in December, which would bring the deposit rate to 3%, as the “right response” to current economic and inflation conditions.

                            He refrained from ruling out a larger 50 basis-point cut, and emphasized that external factors, including market reactions and the Fed’s actions, remain uncertain.

                            Stournaras also downplayed concerns over the sharp third-quarter rise in negotiated wages, the highest since the euro’s inception in 1999, stating, “We expect that to fall in the months to come. We thought it’s one blip but not a permanent increase.”

                            ECB’s Villeroy: Wage data backward-looking, advocates agile pragmatism

                              French ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau, speaking at a conference today, emphasized a cautious and pragmatic stance on monetary policy, downplaying the significance of recent stronger-than-expected wage data.

                              He described the Q3 surge in negotiated wages as a “backward-looking” indicator, primarily reflecting the “lagged effects” of earlier negotiations in Germany, which were already factored into the ECB’s September projections.

                              Villeroy highlighted a shift in risks, stating that the balance for both growth and inflation now tilts to the downside. He also noted that potential US tariffs are “not expected to alter significantly the inflation outlook in Europe”.

                              Against this backdrop, Villeroy reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to “continue to reduce the degree of monetary policy restriction,” while underscoring that the pace must be guided by “agile pragmatism” and “full optionality” in future decisions.

                              BoJ’s Ueda: FX impact on economy and prices taken ‘seriously’ in policy decisions

                                At a forum today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda admitted that the central bank takes exchange rate movements “seriously” when forming its economic and inflation outlook. He also stressed the importance of understanding the factors driving current exchange rate changes and their broader implications.

                                On monetary policy, Ueda reiterated that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting,” based on the most up-to-date information. With a month remaining until December meeting, Ueda noted that additional data would provide greater clarity for the central bank’s deliberations.

                                Commenting on potential impacts from the policies of US President-elect Donald Trump, Ueda admitted that it was too hard to predict. He affirmed that “as soon as the new administration announces new set of policies, we would like to incorporate into our economic outlook.”

                                Fed’s Collins: Additional policy easing required, final destination still uncertain

                                  Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated in a speech that “additional policy easing is needed” as monetary policy remains “at least somewhat restrictive.”

                                  She acknowledged that the “final destination” of policy adjustments is “uncertain”, and emphasized the importance of a “careful and deliberate” approach. FOMC should take the time to “holistically assess” data and evaluate its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks.

                                  Collins described the economy as being in a “good place overall,” with inflation on track to return to Fed’s 2% target, albeit unevenly. She noted that while the labor market is healthy, job growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in fewer sectors. Collins warned that “any further slowing in hiring would be undesirable”.

                                   

                                  Fed’s Cook confident inflation moving toward target

                                    Fed Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech that the US economy is in a “good position”. She remains “confident” that inflation is moving sustainably toward Fed’s 2% objective, while acknowledging that the path may be “occasionally bumpy.” Cook observed that employment risks are weighted to the downside but have “diminished somewhat” in recent months.

                                    Cook reiterated that the direction for monetary policy remains “downward” but stressed that the “magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

                                    Highlighting the need for flexibility, she emphasized that monetary policy is not on a “preset course” and that she is prepared to respond to changing conditions.

                                    Full speech of Fed’s Cook here.

                                    Fed’s Bowman flags inflation risks as progress stalls amid tight labor market

                                      Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concerns over the recent slowdown in inflation reduction efforts, emphasizing that while there has been “considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023,” this progress “seems to have stalled in recent months.”

                                      While acknowledging the complexity of monetary policy decisions, Bowman expressed particular concern about the price stability side of the Fed’s dual mandate, given that unemployment remains at historically low levels. “I see greater risks to the price stability side of our mandate, especially while the labor market remains near full employment,” she said in a speech.

                                      Bowman is known for her hawkish stance on monetary policy. In September FOMC meeting, she dissented from the majority decision to cut rates by 50bps, advocating instead for a smaller 25bps reduction. Her comments reinforce her cautious approach toward easing monetary policy further, especially given the risks of persistent inflation in a strong labor market.

                                      Full speech of Fed’s Bowman here.

                                      BoE’s Ramsden supports gradual rate cuts, but highlights inflation undershooting risks

                                        BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden expressed support for the MPC’s cautious approach to easing interest rates, citing economic uncertainties tied to recent fiscal measures and labor market data. Ramsden emphasized the need for a “watchful and responsive” strategy given lingering questions about the effects of higher employer taxes and potential misrepresentations in labor statistics.

                                        However, Ramsden suggested he might endorse a faster pace of rate cuts if uncertainties ease and disinflationary pressures become more evident. He noted, “Were those uncertainties to diminish and the evidence to point more clearly to further disinflationary pressures… then I would consider a less gradual approach to reducing Bank Rate to be warranted.”

                                        BoE has projected that inflation will remain above its 2% target until early 2027, driven in part by fiscal stimulus and higher minimum wages under the Labour government. Ramsden acknowledged this scenario as “plausible” but also placed significant weight on an alternative outlook where inflation declines more quickly. This could occur through “more symmetry in wages and price setting, with less domestic inflationary pressure.”

                                        Looking ahead, Ramsden predicted that employers are likely to implement pay settlements at the lower end of the 2–4% range, which could lead to inflation staying closer to 2% in the early part of the forecast period. However, under this scenario, inflation could dip “more materially later on, lower than in the MPC’s published forecasts,” he added.

                                        ECB’s Stournaras: Avoiding inflation undershoot becoming policy priority

                                          Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras emphasized at an event overnight that inflation in Eurozone is now projected to reach the 2% target “sooner than earlier expectations,” likely by early 2025 rather than the fourth quarter as previously anticipated. This shift suggests the ECB’s policy focus may increasingly pivot to ensuring “we don’t undershoot our inflation objective”.

                                          Stournaras highlighted markets are “extremely sensitive” to disappointing growth readings. He warned, “If negative surprises for growth come in and we fail to unwind our restrictive monetary-policy stance at the appropriate pace, unnecessary market turbulence could be induced.”

                                          While he acknowledged that the September inflation reading of 1.7% marked a success in controlling price pressures, he cautioned it should also serve as a “wake-up call.” Prolonged monetary restrictions, he warned, could risk “undershooting of our inflation target over the medium term and impede growth”.