Fed Harker: The economy can withstand a measured, methodical approach to tightening

    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday, “I anticipate a sequence of increases in the funds rate at a measured pace until we are confident that inflation is moving toward the Committee’s inflation target.”

    “I still am in the camp that we can have, if not a soft landing, a safe landing,” he said. He expected the economy to grow between 2% and 3% this year, adding that “this economy can withstand a measured, methodical approach to tightening financial conditions.”

    Canada CPI ticked up to 6.8% yoy in Apr, driven by food and shelter prices

      Canada CPI ticked up further to 6.8% yoy in April, up from March’s 6.7% yoy, above expectation of 6.7% yoy. CPI ex-gasoline accelerated to 5.8%, up from 5.5% yoy, fastest since the series was introduced in 1999. Statics Canada added that the year-over-year increase in April was largely driven by food and shelter prices. Gas prices increased at a slower pace.

      Looking at the preferred measures of core inflation by BoC, CPI common rose from 3.0% yoy to 3.2% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. CPI median rose from 4.0% yoy to 4.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.9% yoy. CPI trimmed rose from 4.8% yoy to 5.1% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy.

      Full release here.

      ECB de Cos: Further rate hikes could be made in coming quarters

        ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said today, “in the coming quarters, further (rate) increases could be made to reach levels in line with the natural rate of interest if the medium-term inflation outlook remains around our target.”

        But de Cos also emphasized that the process of policy normalization would be gradual. “For this gradual approach to be adopted, it is essential that inflation expectations remain anchored and that no second-round and indirect effects of a magnitude that could jeopardise this anchoring materialise,” he said.

        Another Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, “It seems necessary that in our policy rates we move relatively quickly out of negative territory and continue our gradual process of monetary policy normalization.”

        Eurozone CPI finalized at 7.4% yoy in Apr, core CPI at 3.5% yoy

          Eurozone CPI was finalized at 7.4% yoy in April, unchanged from March’s reading. Core CPI was finalized at 3.5% yoy, up from March’s 3.0% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from energy (+3.70%), followed by services (+1.38%), food, alcohol & tobacco (+1.35%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.02%).

          EU CPI was finalized at 8.1% yoy, up from March’s 7.8% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in France, Malta (both 5.4%) and Finland (5.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (19.1%), Lithuania (16.6%) and Czechia (13.2%). Compared with March, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in two and rose in twenty-two.

          Full release here.

          UK CPI rose to 9% yoy in Apr, core CPI up to 6.2% yoy

            UK CPI accelerated sharply from 7.0% yoy to 9.0% yoy in April, but missed expectation of 9.1% yoy. CPI core rose from 5.7% yoy to 6.2% yoy, matched expectations. RPI accelerated form 9.0% to 11.1% yoy, matched expectations.

            Headline CPI was another record high since the National Statistics series began in 1997. It’s also the highest record rate in the constructed historical series which began in 1989.

            Based on the recently published modelled consumer price inflation data by the ONS, CPI was last higher sometime around 1982, where estimates range between approximately 6.5 % in December to nearly 11% in January.

            Full CPI release here.

            In response to the release, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said: “Today’s inflation numbers are driven by the energy price cap rise in April, which in turn is driven by higher global energy prices.

            “We cannot protect people completely from these global challenges but are providing significant support where we can, and stand ready to take further action.”

            Also released, PPI input came in at 1.1% mom, 18.6%, versus expectation of 2.6% mom, 20.7% yoy. PPI output was at 2.3% mom, 14.0% yoy, versus expectation of 1.6% mom, 12.5% yoy. PPI output core was at 1.6% mom, 13.0% yoy, versus expectation of 1.6% mom, 12.6% yoy.

            Australia Westpac leading index dropped to 0.88%, expects 40bps RBA hike in Jun

              Australia Westpac-MI leading index dropped from 1.69% to 0.88% in April. Westpac recently revised down growth forecast for 2022 from 5.5% to 4.5%, reflecting the sharp increase in cost of living, and an earlier and more rapid RBA tightening policy.

              As for RBA meeting on June 7, Westpac expects the central bank to hike by a further 40bps to 0.75%, even though most analysts favored a cautious move of 25bps. Westpac said, “It is also much more prudent to front load the increases where at a stage in the cycle when rates are clearly below what might be considered a ‘neutral’ level.

              Full release here.

              Japan GDP contracted -0.2% qoq, -1.0% annualized in Q1

                Japan GDP contracted -0.2% qoq in Q1, better than expectation of -0.4% qoq. In annualized term, GDP contracted -1.0%, first negative growth in two quarters, but better than expectation of -1.8%. GDP deflator dropped -0.4% yoy, also better than expectation of -1.2% yoy.

                Economy minister Daishiro Yamagiwa said the economy has not returned to pre-pandemic levels but that further downside would likely be limited. He also expected the economy to pick up even though uncertainty remains due to Ukraine situation. Also, China’s zero-covid policy is having a significant impact on supply chains.

                Fed Evans expects completing any 50bps, plus some 25bps this year

                  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “front-loading is important to speed up the necessary tightening of financial conditions, as well as for demonstrating our commitment to restrain inflation, thus helping to keep inflationary expectations in check.”

                  As for the pace of tightening, he said, “I’m expecting that before December, we will have completed in any 50s and have put in place at least a few 25s.”

                  “If we need to, we will be well positioned to respond more aggressively if inflation conditions do not improve sufficiently or, alternatively, to scale back planned adjustments if economic conditions soften in a way that threatens our employment mandate,” Evans explained.

                  BoE Cunliffe: There’s no intrinsic value around crypto assets

                    BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said at a web event, “There’s a long tail of retail investors who have invested in cryptoassets. Do they all understand what they’ve invested in? I think not. For that long tail of retail investors, I’m not sure they do understand. They don’t really see this as a financial investment.”

                    “There’s no intrinsic value around crypto assets,” Cunliffe said. “They move with sentiment. They’re being moved mainly as a risky asset, and prices have been going down pretty consistently.”

                    “If you have that as a proportion of your portfolio, you have to realize it is highly speculative,” Cunliffe said. “You could lose all your money. You could make a sizable capital gain. It’s important for investors to understand the characteristics of this investment.”

                    Fed Kashkari: What I don’t know is how much are we going to need to do

                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday, “my colleagues and I are going to do what we need to do to bring the economy back into balance… What I don’t know is how much are we going to need to do … if we get some help on the supply side, then we won’t have to do as much; if we don’t get any help on the supply side, we are going to have to do more.”

                      But he also cautioned, “if the recession is effective in bringing inflation down, but then you’re pushing the unemployment rate way up, now all of a sudden you might be moving from one type of imbalance to the opposite type of imbalance. Like any kind of system, you want to avoid over-correcting if you can.”

                      Fed Powell wont’ hesitate to move past neutral rate to tame inflation

                        Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday, “this is a time for us to be tightly focused on the time ahead and getting inflation back down to 2%…. What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way… If we don’t see that, we will have to consider moving more aggressively”.

                        “If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of ‘neutral’ we won’t hesitate to do that,” he added. “We will go until we feel we are at a place where we can say ‘yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place, we see inflation coming down.'”

                        “We’ll go to that point. There won’t be any hesitation about that,” he said.

                        Fed Bullard: We have a good plan for now

                          St. Louis Fed president James Bullard reiterated that “we have a good plan for now”, in raising interest rate by 50bps at the next couple of meetings. He hoped that could bring inflation down with “the least amount of disruption we can get.”

                          Bullard also said growth in range of 2.5-3.0% is ” “fast compared to the long run potential rate of growth” of the economy, which may be just below 2%. Also, “labor markets are super strong…Household consumption is expected to hold through this year.”.

                          People “want to put the pandemic behind them and they have lots of plans about spending,” Bullard added.

                          US retail sales rose 0.9% mom in Apr, ex-auto sales up 0.6% mom

                            US retail sales rose 0.9% mom to USD 677.7B in April, below expectation of 1.1% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 1.3% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 1.0% mom. Retail trade rose 0.7% mom.

                            Total sales for the three-period, February through April, were up 10.8% from the same period a year ago.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB Knot: 25bps hike realistic, 50bps must not be excluded

                              ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot told Dutch TV program College Tour, “the first interest rate hike is now being priced in for the monetary policy meeting of 21 July.” A 25bps hike ” seems realistic to me.”

                              He also added that if inflation is “”broadening further or accumulating… a bigger increase must not be excluded either.”

                              “In that case a logical next step would amount (to) half a percentage point,” he said.

                              UK payrolled employees rose 131k in Apr, unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% in Mar

                                In April, UK payrolled employees rose 0.4% mom, or 131k, to 29.5m. Claimant count dropped -56.9k, versus expectation of -42.3k.

                                Unemployment rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.7%, versus expectation of being unchanged at 3.8%. Employment rate rose to 75.7%. Average earnings including bonus jumped 7% 3moy, versus expectation of 5.4%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 4.2% 3moy, matched expectations.

                                Full release here.

                                GBP/CAD holding above 2016 low, awaiting wave of UK data

                                  Sterling is a major focus this week with a batch of economic data featured, starting from jobs today, to inflation and retail sales. Risks to the inflation outlook are on both sides as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey explained. Thus, the path of monetary policy, as well as the Pound’s movements, are also highly uncertain.

                                  GBP/CAD’s decline slowed after falling to 1.5774 earlier in the month, hitting 161.8% projection of 1.7623 to 1.6636 from 1.7375 at 1.5778. More importantly, it’s now close to long term support at 1.5746 (2016 low). Further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.6197 resistance holds. Break of 1.5774 could easily push GBP/CAD through 1.5746 to resume the down trend from 2.0971 (2015 high). Such development will also raise the chance of resuming larger down trend from 2.5471 (2002 high) through 1.4831 (2010 low) in the medium term. It could be rather significant.

                                  RBA considered 15bps, 25bps, 40bps hikes in May

                                    In the minutes of May 3 meeting, RBA revealed that three options on interest rate hikes were considered, including 15bps, 25bps and 40bps.

                                    Raising the cash rate by 15bps was not preferred “given that  policy was very stimulatory and that it was highly probable that further rate rises would be required.” And argument for 40bps “could be made given the upside risks to inflation and the current very low level of interest rates”.

                                    But the preferred option of was 25bps, as “a move of this size would help signal that the Board was now returning to normal operating procedures after the extraordinary period of the pandemic”

                                    Full minutes here.

                                    BoE Bailey: There were range of views on both sides of the narrow path we are navigating

                                      At the report to the Treasury Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that most MPC members judge that “some degree of further tightening in monetary policy might still be appropriate in the coming months”.

                                      But he also acknowledged there are “risks on both sides of that judgement”, and a “range of views among these members on the balance of risks”. “This reflects the narrow path we are navigating, given the magnitude of the risks on both sides of our inflation projections,” he added.

                                      Reflecting risks on one side of that “narrow path”, three MPC members voted for 50bps hike in May, instead of 25bps.

                                      Reflecting risks on the other side, there were also a “range of views about the need for, and extent of, any further tightening in policy in the coming months”. Some members judged that “the risks around activity and inflation over the policy horizon were more evenly balanced and that such guidance was not appropriate at this juncture.

                                      Full report here.

                                      EU downgrades EZ 2022 GDP forecast to 2.7%, inflation upgraded to 6.1%

                                        In the Spring 2022 Economic Forecast, EU revised 2022 GDP growth forecast for Eurozone sharply lower, and inflation forecast sharply higher. Here are the new forecasts for Eurozone:

                                        • 2022 GDP growth at 2.7% (down from Autumn forecast of 4.3%.)
                                        • 2023 GDP growth at 2.3% (down from 2.4).
                                        • 2022 HICP inflation at 6.1% (up from 2.2%).
                                        • 2023 HICP inflation at 2.7% (up from 1.4%).
                                        • 2022 HICP core inflation at 3.5% (up from 2.0%).
                                        • 2023 HICP core inflation at 2.4% (up from 1.7%).

                                        Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President said: “There is no doubt that the EU economy is going through a challenging period due to Russia’s war against Ukraine… The overwhelming negative factor is the surge in energy prices, driving inflation to record highs… While growth will continue this year and next, it will be much more subdued than previously expected. Uncertainty and risks to the outlook will remain high as long as Russia’s aggression continues.”

                                        Full Spring 2022 Economic Forecast

                                        Eurozone exports rose 14.0% yoy in Mar, imports rose 35.4% yoy

                                          Eurozone exports of goods rose 14.0% yoy to EUR 250.1B in March. Imports rose 35.4% yoy to EUR 266.5B. Trade deficit came in at EUR 16.4B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 21.2% yoy to EUR 236.8B.

                                          In seasonally adjusted terms, Eurozone exports rose 0.9% mom to EUR 225.3B. Imports rose 3.5% mom to EUR 242.8B. Trade deficit widened from EUR -11.3B to EUR -17.6B, versus expectation of EUR 2.3B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from February’s EUR 207.2B to EUR 210.3B.

                                          Full release here.