France GDP dropped -0.2% in Q1, consumer spending dropped -0.4% in Apr

    France GDP contracted -0.2% qoq in Q1, revised down from 0.0% qoq. The contraction was linked to weakness of household consumption (-1.5%). General government’s consumption expenditure rose 0.2%. Total gross fixed capital formation rose 0.6%. Exports rose 1.2% with net foreign trade up 0.2%.

    Full release here.

    Also from France, consumer spending dropped -0.4% mom in April, below expectation of 0.4% rise.

    Bitcoin heading to 55 D EMA as near term rebound resumes

      On the back of improving market sentiment, Bitcoin rises through 31407 resistance to resume the rebound from 25083. Further rally is now expected to 55 day EMA (now at 34297). Sustained break there will further affirm the case that whole decline from 68986 has completed with three waves down to 25083.

      It’s still a bit too early to confirm a bullish trend reversal for the moment. But even as a corrective rebound, firm break of 44 day EMA should pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 68986 to 25083 at 41853 at least. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 27993 support holds.

      WTI oil to clear 120 as EU bans 2/3 of Russia import immediately

        WTI crude oil is extending recent rally and it’s now eyeing 120 handle. EU leaders finally agreed yesterday to embargo on seaborne oil imports from Russia, which covers more than two-thirds of the imports. Another one-third is delivered via the Druzhba pipeline. Also, the embargo would be raised to 90% once Poland and Germany, which are connected to the pipeline, stop buying by the end of the year. The remaining 10% temporarily exempt including imports to Hungary along with Slovakia and Czech.

        “This immediately covers more than 2/3 of oil imports from Russia, cutting a huge source of financing for its war machine. Maximum pressure on Russia to end the war,” European Council President Charles Michel said in a tweet.

        WTI crude oil’s break of the near term channel resistance suggests upside acceleration. 118.57 near term resistance is also taken out. As long as 114.27 support holds, further rally would be seen, back towards 131.82 high.

        Nevertheless, current rally from 93.47 is tentatively seen as the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 131.82. Hence, a firm break of 131.82 is not expected for now while sideway trading could extend for some more time.

        China PMI manufacturing rose to 49.6 in May, services rose to 47.8

          The official China PMI manufacturing rose from 47.4 to 49.6 in May, matched expectations. PMI Services rose from 41.9 to 47.8, above expectation of 45.2. PMI Composite also rose from 42.7 to 48.4.

          “This showed manufacturing production and demand have recovered to varying degrees, but the recovery momentum needs to be strengthened,” said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the NBS.

          Japan industrial production dropped -1.3% mom in Apr, expected to return to growth in May

            Japan industrial production dropped -1.3% mom in April, much worse than expectation of -0.2% mom. It’s also the first decline in three months. The seasonally adjusted production index for the manufacturing and mining sectors stood at 95.2 against 100 for the base year of 2015.

            Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expected output to return to growth in May, gaining 4.8%, followed by a 8.9% rise in June.

            Also from Japan, unemployment rate dropped from 2.6% to 2.5% in April, lowest in two years. Retail sales rose 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.6% yoy.

            Fed Waller supports 50bps hikes for several meetings

              Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech, “longer-range inflation expectations have moved up from a level that was consistent with trend inflation below 2 percent to a level that’s consistent with underlying inflation a little above 2 percent.”

              When these expectations are “anchored”, “they influence spending decisions today in a way that helps inflation move toward our target,” he added.

              “To ensure these longer-term expectations do not move up broadly, the Federal Reserve has tools to reduce demand, which should ease inflation pressures,” he said”.

              “I support tightening policy by another 50 basis points for several meetings”. In particular, “I am not taking 50 basis-point hikes off the table until I see inflation coming down closer to our 2 percent target.” Additionally, Waller said he supports “having the policy rate at a level above neutral” by the end of this year.

              Full speech here.

              AUD/JPY rises on risk-on sentiment, ready for up trend resumption?

                On the back of risk-on sentiment, AUD/JPY rally resumed the rally from 87.28 today, and hit as high as 91.67 so far. The development affirms the case that correction from 95.73 has completed with three waves down to 87.28. Further rally should be seen as long as 89.63 support holds. Next target is 94.00 resistance.

                Also, while the pull back from 95.73 was deep, it was held above 85.78 resistance turned support, as well as 55 week EMA. Medium term bullishness is maintained. Firm break of 94.00 will argue that whole up trend from 59.85 (2020 low) is ready to resume through 95.73. In that case, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 59.85 to 85.78 from 78.77 at 104.70.

                Eurozone economic sentiment ticked up to 105 in May, EU down to 104.1

                  Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator ticked up from 104.9 to 105.0 in May. Employment Expectations Indicator rose from 112.6 to 112.9. Industrial confidence dropped from 7.7 to 6.3. Services confidence rose from 13.6 to 14.0. Consumer confidence rose from -22.0 to -21.1. Retail trade confidence dropped from -3.9 to -4.0. Construction confidence rose from 7.0 to 7.2.

                  EU Economic Sentiment dropped from 104.6 to 104.1. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI rose markedly in Spain (+4.1) and, to a lesser extent, in France (+1.5) and Italy (+0.8), while it remained

                  Full release here.

                  Swiss KOF dropped to 96.8, below long-term average

                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 103.0 to 96.8 in May, below expectation of 102.3. The indicator is now below its long-term average. KOF said, “the Swiss economy is thus likely to develop moderately over the next few months.”

                    The decline was “driven by indicator bundles of almost all branches of the economy”, except financial and insurance services sector, and foreign demand.

                    Full release here.

                    BoJ Kuroda: Yen’s rapid weakening not because of monetary policy

                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today, “I don’t think the BOJ’s monetary policy was the factor behind a rapid yen weakening. The recent yen weakening may have been driven by an abnormal situation where oil prices topped $130 per barrel.”

                      He also said that the rapid depreciation of Yen was “undesirable”. But the situation was improving with Dollar easing back to around 127 Yen.

                      Meanwhile, Kuroda also repeated the pledge to maintain powerful monetary easing to help the economy from recovering.

                      RBNZ Conway: Probably some more 50 points hikes coming

                        RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said today that 50bps rate hikes are the way forward, and he’s confident of soft landing as the labor market is strong.

                        “75 wasn’t seriously on the table because we are pretty convinced that we can get to where we need to get with 50-point increments,” he said. Also, the central bank was “signaling there’s probably some more 50 points coming over the next little while.”

                        On the economy, Conway said “it’s difficult to engineer a soft landing — typically a significant reduction in inflation is accompanied by negative economic growth — but there’s reasons to believe New Zealand is well placed to pull it off this time around.”

                        “The labor market is strong and that’s the underlying reason why the New Zealand economy is well placed to weather the storm,” he added.

                        US PCE inflation slowed to 6.3% yoy, core PCE down to 4.9% yoy

                          US personal income rose 0.5% mom, or USD 89.3B, in April, below expectation of 0.6% mom. Personal spending rose 0.9% mom, or USD 152.3B, above expectation of 0.7% mom.

                          Headline PCE price index slowed from 6.6% yoy to 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.9% yoy, matched expectations. Energy prices rose 30.4% yoy while food prices rose 10.0% yoy.

                          Full release here.

                          Bundesbank Nagel: We must make the first rates move in July

                            In a Der Spiegel interview, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said, “in our June meeting we must send a clear signal where we’re going. From my current perspective, we must then make the first rates move in July and have others follow in the second half of the year.”

                            Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde has already indicated, “we’re moving (deposit rate) very likely into positive territory at the end of the third quarter… When you’re out of negative (rates) you can be at zero, you can be slightly above zero. This is something that we will determine on the basis of our projections and … forward guidance.”

                            Australia retail sales rose 0.9% mom in Apr, driven by higher food prices

                              Australia retail sales rose 0.9% mom in April, slightly below expectation of 1.0% mom. For the 12-month period, sales rose 9.6% yoy.

                              New South Wales was the only state or territory to record a fall, down -0.3%. Queensland had the largest rise in retail turnover, up 1.6%. Turnover also rose in Victoria (1.1%), Western Australia (2.2 %), South Australia (1.4%), Tasmania (2.0%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.5%) and the Northern Territory (0.7%).

                              ABS said: “The strength in retail turnover is being driven by spending across the food industries. High food prices have combined with increased household spending over the April holiday period as more people are travelling, dining out and holding family gatherings.

                              Full release here.

                              BoJ Kuroda: Prices won’t rise sustainably without wage hikes

                                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that core inflation (all items excluding fresh food) is “likely to remain around 2% for about 12 months”, unless energy prices drop sharply.

                                However, he emphasized that “prices won’t rise sustainably, stably unless accompanied by wage hikes.” That’s seen as in indication that recent rise in inflation is not enough to lead to exit of the ultra-loose monetary policy.

                                Also from Japan, Tokyo CPI core was unchanged at 1.9% yoy in May, below expectation of 2.0% yoy.

                                US initial jobless claims dropped to 210k continuing claims down to 1.348m

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped -8k to 210k in the week ending May 21, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 7k to 207k.

                                  Continuing claims rose 31k to 1346k in the week ending May 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -14k to 1348k, lowest since January 17, 1970 when it was 1340k.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Canada retail sales flat in Mar, auto and parts contracted sharply

                                    Canada retail sales was flat mom in March, worse than expectation of 1.5% mom rise. Sales were up in 10 of 11 subsectors, led by gasoline (up 7.4%). However, sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-6.4%) erased the gains observed in the remaining subsectors.

                                    For Q1 as a whole, sales were up 3.0%, largest quarterly rise since Q3 of 2020. Preliminary data indicates sales rose 0.8% mom in April.

                                    Full release here.

                                    USD/CNH finished pull back, heading back to 6.83

                                      Yuan’s decline today suggests that the near term recovery is already completed and there’s risk of more downside. The selloff came after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held a rare high-profile meeting yesterday on measures to support the economy. That’s is seen as a sign that the government is in deep worry about the impact of the extend tough pandemic lockdowns in many majors city, including Shanghai.

                                      USD/CNH’s pull back from 6.8372 has likely completed at 0.6477, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 6.3057 to 6.8372 at 6.6342. Strong rebound should be seen to 6.8372 and possibly above. The key resistance, however, still lies 61.8% retracement of 7.1961 to 6.3057 at 6.8560. USD/CNH could still be rejection by this fibonacci level at the second attempt.

                                      BoJ Kuroda: Exit from easy monetary policy won’t be easy

                                        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated to the parliament today that ultra-loose monetary policy must be maintained for now. Consumer inflation is still expected to slow next year and beyond, after spiking above 2% target this year, only because of surging energy prices.

                                        Nevertheless, Kuroda also noted when the right time comes, BoJ will plan an exit from easy policy. “The key would be how to raise interest rates and scale back the BOJ’s expanded balance sheet,” he said. “The BOJ can combine various means and ensure markets remain stable in executing a smooth exit from easy policy. I must add, however, that it won’t be easy,” he said.

                                        Regarding exchange rate depreciation, Kuroda said Fed’s rate hike may not necessarily weaken the Yen, if they also shoot down stock prices.

                                        Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in the same parliament session, “sharp yen moves are undesirable. While a weak yen benefits exports and firms with overseas assets, it hurts households and some businesses via higher costs.”

                                        RBNZ Orr: Single biggest risk is embedded inflation expectation

                                          RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr told a parliamentary committee today, “the single biggest risk to this nation at the moment is enabling current high CPI inflation to become embedded in future ongoing inflation expectation.”

                                          Orr said that a recession is not projected for New Zealand, even though he cannot rule it out. Challenges to growth were coming through significant downgrades to global growth, particularly China.