CAD/JPY targeting 2014 high as Yen selloff deepens

    BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that a weak Yen is “beneficial” for Japan’s economy if the moves are “not too sharp”. He emphasized again that the moves in currency markets should reflect “fundamentals”, and the central bank is “carefully watching” the impact.

    The comments came as Yen was sold off broadly, triggered by US 10-year yield reclaimed 3% handle overnight. Germany 10-year bund yield also jumped to fix at 1.323. USD/JPY hit the highest level in over two-decades while CAD/JPY is also getting close to 2014 high at 106.48.

    For now, near term outlook in CAD/JPY will stay bullish as long as 103.60 support holds, targeting 61.8% projection of 89.21 to 102.93 from 97.78 at 106.25, which is close to above mentioned 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 68.38 to 106.48 from 73.80 at 111.90. That is the key hurdle for CAD/JPY to overcome in the medium term.

    Australia AiG services dropped to 49.2, back in mild contraction

      Australia AiG Performance and Services Index dropped sharply from 57.8 to 49.2 in May, indicating mild contraction. Sales dropped -13.0 pts to 50.7. Employment dropped -10.4 to 47.4. New orders dropped -3.3 to 49.7. Input prices dropped -9.1 o 68.7. Selling prices dropped -3.6 to 61.9. Average wages dropped -9.8 to 57.4.

      Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group, said: “The Australian services sector contracted mildly in May after a period of healthy expansion in the earlier months of 2022. Performance was mixed across the sector with strong growth in logistics, retail trade and personal, recreational & other services offset by sharp declines in business & property services and health & education services.”

      Full release here.

      USD/JPY resumes up trend as 10-year yield reclaims 3%

        USD/JPY powers through 131.34 resistance as 10-year yield reclaims 3% handle. Medium term up trend in USD/JPY is resuming and should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 first.

        More importantly, sustained trading above a long term projection level at 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

        But of course, that would likely need 10-year yield to break through 3.167 with some conviction too. There is no hints on that happening yet. Let’s see.

        Nikkei hits 2-mth high, ready to extend near term up trend

          Riding on broadly positive risk sentiment, Japan’s stock indexes surged to highest level in over two months. Topix finished 0.31% higher while Nikkei rose 0.56%. Among the gainers, air and land transportation shares are lifted by optimism that tourism is coming back to Japan.

          Based on current momentum, Nikkei should be ready to resume the whole rebound from 24681.74. 28338.81 resistance is the first test, and break will target 100% projection of 24681.74 to 28338.81 from 25688.10 at 29345.17. For now, it’s still too early to call for long term up trend resumption in the index. 30k handle could still present huge psychological resistance. But in any case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 27251.24 minor support holds.

          Meanwhile, it should also be noted that the long term outlook in Nikkei is staying bullish, despite the correction that lasted one and half year. It’s holding comfortably above 24129.34 structural resistance, as well as 55 month EMA. Both are keeping the up trend from 6994.89 (2008 low) intact.

          China Caixin PMI services rose to 41.4 in May, composite rose to 42.2

            China Caixin PMI Services rose form 36.2 to 41.4 in May, but missed expectation of 47.3. Caixin said services activity fell at softer, but still sharp rate amid COVID-19 restrictions. Drop in overall new work moderated. Input cost inflation eased to nine-month low. PMI Composite rose from 37.2 to 42.2.

            Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Overall, in May, local Covid outbreaks continued and manufacturing and services activity improved slightly, but continued to contract, with services hit harder. Demand was slightly stronger than supply. The fallout from the epidemic on market supply and demand has been transmitted to the labor market, which is deteriorating at a faster pace in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Disrupted supply chains and longer logistics delivery times have yet to improve. Businesses remained under great cost pressure.”

            Full release here.

            Kuroda: BoJ takes a strong stance on continuing with monetary easing

              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech that the economy is “still on its way to recovery from the pandemic and has been under downward pressure from the income side due to rising commodity prices”. In this situation, “monetary tightening is not at all a suitable measure”.

              He added that the top priority is to “persistently continue with the current aggressive monetary easing centered on yield curve control”. And, unlike other central banks, BoJ has noted faced the “the trade-off between economic stability and price stability”. Hence, it’s “certainly possible for the Bank to continue stimulating aggregate demand from the financial side.”

              He concluded that BoJ “will take a strong stance on continuing with monetary easing, in that it will provide a macroeconomic environment where wages are likely to increase so that the rise in inflation expectations and changes in the tolerance of price rises — which have started to be seen recently — will lead to sustained inflation.”

              Full speech here.

              US ISM services dropped to 55.9, corresponds to 2.1% annualized GDP growth

                US ISM Services PMI dropped from 57.1 to 55.9 in May, below expectation of 56.7. Business activity/production dropped -4.6 to 54.5. New orders rose 3.0% to 57.6. Employment rose 0.7 to 50.2. Prices dropped -2.5 to 82.1.

                ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for May (55.9 percent) corresponds to a 2.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                Full release here.

                US NFP grew 390k in May, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%

                  US non-farm payroll employment grew 390k in May, above expectation of 325k. Prior month’s growth was also revised up from 428k to 436k. Overall non-farm employment was still down by -822k, or -0.5% from its prepandemic level.

                  Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% for the third month in a row, above expectation of 3.5%. No of unemployed was essentially unchanged at 6.0m. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.3%.

                  Average hourly earnings rose only 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom.

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.3% mom in Apr, EU down -1.3% mom

                    Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.3% mom in Apr, much worse than expectation of 0.3% mom rise. Volume of retail trade decreased by -2.6% for food, drinks and tobacco and by -0.7% for non-food products, while it increased by 1.9% for automotive fuels.

                    EU retail sales dropped -1.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (-7.7%), Germany (-5.4%) and Latvia (-3.9%). The highest increases were observed in Spain (+5.3%), Luxembourg (+3.7%) and Ireland (+1.9%).

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 54.8, risks skewed to downside for coming months

                      Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 56.1 in May, down from April’s 57.7. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.8, down from April’s 55.8, a 4-month low. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI composite dropped to 4-month low at 57.5. France dropped to 2-month low at 57.0. Spain was unchanged at 55.7. Germany dropped to 5-month low at 53.7. Italy dropped to 2-month low at 52.4.

                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Strong demand for services helped sustain a robust pace of economic growth in May, suggesting the eurozone is expanding an underlying rate equivalent to GDP growth of just over 0.5%. However, risks appear to be skewed to the downside for the coming months…

                      “The near-term fate of the eurozone economy will therefore depend on the extent to which a fading tailwind of pent-up demand can offset the headwinds of geopolitical uncertainty amid the Ukraine war, supply chain disruptions and the rising cost of living, the latter likely exacerbated by tightening monetary conditions.”

                      Full release here.

                      NASDAQ extends rebound as focus turns to NFP

                        US non-farm payroll employment is the main focus for today. The US economy is expected to add 325k jobs in May. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 3.6% to 3.5%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise another 0.4% mom. Looking at related data, ADP private jobs grew just 128k, well below expectations. ISM manufacturing employment dropped into contraction reading of 49.6. Four-week moving average of initial claims also rose notably from 188k to 206k. There is risk of downside surprise in the heading NFP number today. But wages growth would be the one that matters more.

                        US stocks are trying to extend rebound this week, even though some Fed officials tried to talk down the prospect of a September pause in tightening. NASDAQ’s rebound form 11035.68 is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 12610.13). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole fall from 16212.22 has completed in form of a three wave correction. Stronger rally would then be seen back towards trendline resistance at around 13800 later in the month. Such development would cap rally attempts in the greenback.

                        Fed Mester cannot conclude inflation has peaked

                          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said yesterday, “if by the September FOMC meeting, the monthly readings on inflation provide compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, then the pace of rate increases could slow. But if inflation has failed to moderate, then a faster pace of rate increases could be necessary.”

                          “I will need to see several months of sustained downward monthly readings of inflation. I have not seen that yet,” she said, thus she could not conclude that inflation has peaked.

                          On the economy, Mester said, “the risk of recession has risen, but because underlying aggregate demand momentum and the demand for labor are so strong, a good case can still be made that as demand and supply come into better balance, a sharp slowdown can be avoided, with growth slowing to a trend pace this year, labor market conditions remaining healthy, and inflation moving down to a 4­1/2 to 5­1/2 percent range this year and declining further next year,” Mester said.

                          BoC Beaudry: Interest rate may need to go above 3%

                            BoC Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry said in a speech, “we noted that price pressures are broadening and inflation is much higher than we expected and likely to go higher still before easing.”

                            “This raises the likelihood that we may need to raise the policy rate to the top end or above the neutral range to bring demand and supply into balance and keep inflation expectations well anchored,” he added.

                            Beaudry also indicated that the neutral range, a rate that “neither stimulates nor weighs on growth”, is estimated to be “between 2% and 3%”

                            Full speech here.

                            Fed Brainard: It’s very hard to see the case for pause in Sep

                              Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard told CNBC today, “right now, it’s very hard to see the case for a pause… We’ve still got a lot of work to do to get inflation down to our 2% target.” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted earlier that a pause in September might make sense to see how the economy evolves after successive rate hikes.

                              “We’re certainly going to do what is necessary to bring inflation back down,” Brainard said. “That’s our No. 1 challenge right now. We are starting from a position of strength. The economy has a lot of momentum.”

                              US initial claims dropped to 200k, continuing claims dropped to 1.309m

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -11k to 200k in the week ending May 28, slightly below expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -500 to 206.5k.

                                Continuing claims dropped -34k to 1309k in the week ending May 21. That’s the lowest level since December 27, 1969, when it was 1304k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -19.5k to 1327k, lowest since January 10, 1970, when it was 1310k.

                                Full release here.

                                US ADP jobs rose 128k, growth rate tempered

                                  US ADP private employment rose 128k only in May, well below expectation of 280k. By company size, small businesses jobs dropped -91k, medium businesses rose 97k, large businesses rose 122k. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 24k, service-providing rose 104k.

                                  “Under a backdrop of a tight labor market and elevated inflation, monthly job gains are closer to pre-pandemic levels,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “The job growth rate of hiring has tempered across all industries, while small businesses remain a source of concern as they struggle to keep up with larger firms that have been booming as of late.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Eurozone PPI up 1.2% mom, 37.2% yoy in Apr, EU up 1.3% mom, 37.0% yoy

                                    Eurozone PPI rose 1.2% mom, 37.2% yoy in April, below expectation of 2.3% mom, 38.6% yoy. For the month, Industrial producer prices increased by 3.8% for intermediate goods, by 2.7% for non-durable consumer goods and by 1.0% for capital goods and durable consumer goods, while they decreased by -1.2% in the energy sector. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 2.6%.

                                    EU PPI rose 1.3% mom, 37.0% yoy. The highest monthly decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Ireland (-16.4%), Romania (-3.2%), Portugal (-2.2%) and Italy (-0.3%). The highest increases were observed in Slovakia (+9.3%), Luxembourg (+6.0%) and Bulgaria (+4.1%).

                                    Full release here.

                                    ECB Villeroy: Policy normalization should be gradual but resolute

                                      ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in Pairs, “inflation is not only too high, but also too broad. This requires a normalization of monetary policy — I say normalization and not tightening.” He added that the normalization process should be “gradual but resolute”

                                      “Fiscal policy will itself be further constrained by the high level of post-Covid public debt, and by the increase in interest rates,” Villeroy added. “Furthermore, in the two next years, the context will be one of slower growth, or even, according to some fears, of economic stagnation.”

                                      Swiss CPI accelerated to 2.9% yoy in May, import pries up 7.4% yoy

                                        Swiss CPI rose 0.7% mom in May, above expectation of 0.3% mom. The monthly rise was due to factors including housing rentals, heating oil and food. Core CPI rose 0.5% mom. Domestic prices rose 0.5% mom while imported prices rose 1.1% mom.

                                        For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 2.5% yoy to 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.6% yoy. Core inflation CPI came in at 1.7% yoy. Domestic prices rose 1.5% yoy while imported prices rose 7.4% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ Adachi: We should not forget strong yen led to two lost decades

                                          BoJ board member Seiji Adachi said, “with the impact of the pandemic continuing, shifting to tighter monetary policy now would inflict huge damage to business and household activity… It’s premature to move toward tighter policy.”

                                          “If the bank uses monetary policy to respond to short-term fluctuations (in exchange rates) before achieving its goal for underlying inflation, it would bring negative effects on the Japanese economy,” he said.

                                          “We should not forget that a strong yen was among factors that led to Japan’s prolonged deflation and two ‘lost’ decades” of economic stagnation, he added.