Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted growing concerns over the economic impact of the Trump administration’s upcoming tariffs. He told CNBC that the tariffs could both stoke inflation and weigh on the labor market.

“Call me nervous on both,” Barkin said, signaling that the path forward for monetary policy remains highly data-dependent.

Barkin emphasized “there’s a lot of uncertainty right now, and I think that makes the case for wait and see how this plays out.”

New York Fed President John Williams cautioned that the inflationary effects of new US tariffs could be “more prolonged” than initially anticipated.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Williams emphasized that while the immediate price increases are expected, the true impact of tariffs “might not be fully felt for a couple of years.”

He stressed the importance of monitoring not just the direct price changes, but also the “indirect effects” that ripple through the broader economy over time.

“It is still early days to be able to come to a concrete conclusion around this,” Williams said, noting that Fed will need to remain open-minded about “how long these last in terms of their effects on inflation and the economy.”

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that the fast-moving policies of the new administration, particularly around tariffs, have created a “dense fog” of uncertainty. While acknowledging that recent high inflation could amplify the impact of new tariffs, he noted that the ultimate effect remains unknowable given the lack of clarity on final tariff rates and the responses of global actors.

Barkin warned that this heightened uncertainty is already weighing on sentiment. He explained that for consumers and businesses to spend and invest, “they need to have a certain level of confidence”. Without that, demand may quiet, particularly as markets navigate the unknowns tied to policy shifts and geopolitical developments.

“It’s not an everyday ‘forecasting is hard’ type of fog,” he said, but rather one that demands a cautious approach—“a ‘zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards’ type of fog.”

In this context, Barkin reiterated that the Fed’s current moderately restrictive stance remains appropriate. “We are waiting for the fog to clear,” he concluded.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed her full support for Fed to keep interest rates unchanged last week, noting that continued economic uncertainty and inflation risks warrant a cautious approach.

Collins said that with upside risks to inflation still present, it would likely be appropriate to maintain current policy settings “for a longer time”. She stressed the importance of “active patience” and flexibility as Fed monitors the evolving economy.

One of the key factors now clouding the outlook is tariffs. Collins acknowledged that new tariffs will almost certainly raise inflation in the near term. However, the longer-term implications depend heavily on how other countries react and whether businesses pass costs onto consumers. These elements could determine whether the inflationary shock is temporary or more persistent.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that while the initial effects of import tariffs may be short-lived, their broader inflationary impact could linger. He stressed concern that underlying inflation may be influenced more persistently than expected, and if so, Fed might have to consider a tighter policy stance.

Although this isn’t his baseline scenario, Musalem emphasized that the Fed must remain vigilant to second-round effects from tariffs.

He noted that if inflation stays above the 2% target and the economy remains strong, the current “modestly restrictive” monetary stance would need to be maintained longer.

More significantly, “If the labor market remains resilient and the second-round effects from tariffs become evident, or if medium- to longer-term inflation expectations begin to increase actual inflation or its persistence, then modestly restrictive policy will be appropriate for longer or a more restrictive policy may need to be considered,” he said.