ECB de Guindos: Fragmentation instruments should not interfere with monetary policy approach

    ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said today “fragmentation is a significant worry.” The central bank is ” speeding up process to ready a tool against fragmentation,” but the governing council has “still not discussed the details yet”.

    But he emphasized, “fragmentation instruments should not interfere with the overall monetary policy approach, which should be focused on fighting inflation.” Also, the new tool should be different to previous PEPP, APP or OMT programs as “circumstances are not the same.

    UK CPI rose to 9.1% yoy in May, another 40-yr high

      UK CPI accelerated further from 9.0% yoy to 9.1% yoy in May, matched expectations. That’s another record high since the series began in 1997. Also, based on indicate model, it’s the highest since around 1982, which was at nearly 11% yoy. CPI core, on the other hand, slowed from 6.2% yoy to 5.9% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy.

      ONS said: “Rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, compared with falls a year ago, resulted in the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI 12-month inflation rates between April and May 2022 (0.17 percentage points for CPIH). The largest offsetting downward contributions to change in the rates were from recreation and culture (0.10 percentage points for CPIH) and clothing and footwear (0.08 percentage points for CPIH).

      Full release here.

      Also released PPI input came in at 2.1% mom, 22.1% yoy in May. PPI output was at 1.6% mom, 15.7% yoy. PPI output core was at 1.50% mom, 14.8% yoy.

      Australia Westpac leading index dropped to 0.58 in May

        Australia Westpac leading index dropped from 1.09% to 0.58% in May, still indicating above trend growth for 2022. Westpac said, “the components of the Index are indicating an important emerging theme around Australia’s growth prospects – a significant shock to consumer confidence.”

        On RBA policy, Westpac expects the central bank to hike a further 50bps in July. It assessed that at 1.35% after the hike, interest rate is still below the neutral setting. Given the tight labor market and rising inflation, further monetary tightening can be expected through 2022.

        Full release here.

        New Zealand goods exports rose 18% yoy in May, imports rose 24% yoy

          New Zealand goods exports rose 18% yoy or NZD 1.1B to NZD 7.0B in May. Goods imports rose 24% yoy or NZD 1.3B to NZD 6.7B. Monthly trade surplus narrowed from NZD 440m to NZD 263m, smaller than expectation of NZD 580m.

          Exports to all top destinations rose except to China: China (down -3.8%), Australia (up 49%), US (up 18%), EU (up 23%), Japan (up 0.7%).

          Imports from most partners rose except from the US: China (up 25%), EU (up 12%), Australia (up 18%), US (down -5.5%), Japan (up 41%).

          Full release here.

          BoJ firm on maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy

            In the minutes of April 27-28 meeting of BoJ indicated that while the board was concerned with fluctuation in Yen’s exchange rate, it remained firm on the stance to continue with ultra-loose monetary policy.

            One board member noted that Japan’s economy was “still on its way to recovery”. As a “commodity importer”, the rise in commodity prices would “lead to an outflow of income from Japan and thus exert downward pressure on the economy.” Hence, it’s “necessary” to “continue with the current powerful monetary easing and thereby firmly support the economy.”

            Another member noted that “the challenge of monetary policy in Japan was not to curb inflation, as in the case of the United States and Europe, but to overcome inflation that was still too low”. A different member commented that,” with the addition of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the existing downside risks to the economy, the situation had further changed significantly; against this backdrop, it was not appropriate for the Bank to make any big changes to its monetary policy stance.”

            Regarding Yen’s depreciation, “a few members said excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market over a short period of time, such as those observed recently, would raise uncertainties about the future and make it more difficult for firms to formulate their business plans”.

            Some member noted, “it was necessary for the Bank to clearly communicate to the public that the aim of monetary policy conduct was to fulfill its mandate of achieving price stability, rather than to control foreign exchange rates.”

            Full minutes here.

            Canada retail sales up 0.9% mom in Apr, to rise 1.6% mom in May

              Canada retail sales rose 0.9% mom to CAD 60.7B in April, slightly above expectation of 0.8% mom. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors. Excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, sales rose 1.0% mom.

              Preliminary data suggests that sales rose 1.6% mom in May.

              Full release here.

              ECB Rehn: Sharply rising inflation justifies expedite policy normalization

                ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, “with inflation rising sharply, there has been good reason to expedite the normalization of monetary policy,”

                “The impacts of Russia’s brutal war are being felt around the world, and people are having to pay higher prices for energy and food,” he said.

                BoE Pill sees tightening of monetary policy over the coming months

                  BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said today, “we will do what we need to do to get inflation back to target. And at least in my view, that will require further tightening of monetary policy over the coming months.”

                  “When we assess inflation pressure, we need to take into account the exchange rate,” he added. “We see ourselves as steering a narrow path between persistent inflation pressure and recession.”

                  “Terms of trade shock means UK will be poorer, UK must decide how that reduction in income will be distributed.”

                  Japan PM Kishida and opposition Tamaki agree BoJ to keep loose monetary policy

                    Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida asked opposition DDP’s Yuichiro Tamaki on monetary policy. Tamaki said the BOJ must keep current ultra-low interest rates, arguing that tightening monetary policy was “unthinkable”. Kishida said afterwards, “I agree with you on the point that Japan shouldn’t alter monetary policy.”

                    Kishida also said, “monetary policy affects not just currency rates, but the economy and smaller firms’ businesses. Such factors must be taken into account comprehensively.”

                    Separately, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “I’m concerned about the rapid yen weakening seen recently.” He added that the government will “closely liaise” with BoJ on watching the exchange markets with “even greater sense of urgency”. “We will respond appropriately if necessary while keeping close communication with currency authorities from other countries,” Suzuki said.

                    RBA Lowe: Going to be some years before inflation back in target range

                      RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the larger than expected 50bps hike at last meeting was driven by “additional information suggesting a further upward revision to an already high inflation forecast”.

                      He also emphasized, “as we chart our way back to 2 per cent to 3 per cent inflation, Australians should be prepared for more interest rate increases.”

                      “In the next month or so, we’ll be doing a full forecast update, but it’s going to be some years, I think, before inflation is back in the 2-3 per cent range, he added.

                      “I don’t see a recession on the horizon,” Lowe said. “If the last two years has taught us anything, it’s that you can’t rule anything out. But our fundamentals are strong, the position of the household sector is strong, and firms are wanting to hire people at record rates. It doesn’t feel like a precursor to a recession,” he said.

                      New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped to 78.7 in Q2, record low

                        New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped sharply from 92.1 to 78.7 in Q2. That’s the lowest level on record, and well below long-term average at 110.2.

                        Westpac said: “The pressure on household finances and sharp fall in confidence reinforces our expectations for a downturn in household spending – and economic growth more generally – over the coming months”.

                        “The RBNZ’s own projections show the cash rate rising to 3.9%, while financial markets have started to price in the chance that it could go as high as 4.5%…

                        “If there is a more abrupt slowdown in spending than the RBNZ anticipates, then it’s likely that increases in the cash rate will be more measured.”

                        Full release here.

                        ECB Lane: Initial policy normalization steps clear and robust

                          ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said yesterday, “we have very high inflation rates now, and clearly we could be in a world where inflation psychology is taking hold.”

                          In a presentation, he said that Eurozone is facing three inflation shocks: pandemic cycle, energy shock and Russia-Ukraine war. Risks to inflation outlook include catch-up adjustment in wages, re-set of long term inflation expectations, inflation psychology, downward revision in potential output, and rise in real interest rate.

                          He added that monetary policy normalization is “appropriate” with “clear and robust” initial steps. That is, ECB will be stopping asset purchases, raise interest rate by 25bps in July, and again in September. Though, the size of the September hike is undecided. As for further steps, they will be state-contingent (gradualism, optionality, flexibility, data-dependency)

                          Full presentation here.

                          BoE Mann: Robust policy move reduces risk of further inflation further boosted by Sterling depreciation

                            BoE MPC member Catherine Mann explained in a speech that her for a 50bps last week. She said, ” a more robust policy move, based on both domestic conjuncture and commensurate with the global factor, reduces the risk that domestic inflation already embedded is further boosted by inflation imported via a Sterling depreciation.”

                            She’s open to a policy rate reversal in the medium term “when the domestic supports to demand fade and when weakness in external sources of demand bite.”

                            She said, “the domestic conjunctural situation is characterized by very high inflation and various supports to consumer purchasing power relative to real income”. The support factors include “two fiscal packages, strong employment, wide-spread bonuses as well as robust wage growth, strong housing values, accumulated savings, quality trade-down, and borrowing through credit cards among other schemes.”

                            Globally, tightening by Fed and ECB suggests depreciation pressure on Sterling that could “add to inflation particularly in the near term”.

                            Full speech here.

                            ECB Lagarde: Larger than 25bps hike appropriate in Sep if MT inflation outlook persists or deteriorates

                              In a European Parliament committee hearing, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the policy decision made at June meeting, including ending the asset purchase program, scheduling to raise interest rate by 25bps in July, and to raise interest rates again in September.

                              As for the September hike, “if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment (than 25bps) will be appropriate.”

                              Beyond September, ECB anticipates that “a gradual but sustained path of further increases in interest rates will be appropriate”, depending on incoming data.

                              Full remarks here.

                              ECB Kazaks supports 25bps hike in Jul, 50bps in Sep

                                ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said he would support 25bps rate hike in July and 50bps in September. He added that inflation would “need to surprise on the low side” for it not to be 50bps in September.

                                But he emphasized that investors should not think that 50 bps rate hikes are “the new default.”

                                Japan: Industrial production appears to be pausing for picking up

                                  In June economic report, Japan’s government said “industrial production appears to be pausing for picking up.” That’s a downgraded assessment from May’s “industrial production shows movements of picking up.” Exports continued to be “almost flat”.

                                  It reiterated that “full attention should be given to the downside risks due to rising raw material prices, supply-side constraints and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets while there are concerns regarding the effects of lengthening the state of affairs of Ukraine and suppression of economic activities in China.”

                                  Nevertheless, for the short-term, the economy is “expected to show movements of picking up, supported by the effects of the policies while all possible measures are being taken against infectious diseases, and economic and social activities proceed to normalization”.

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoJ Kuroda: PM Kishida didn’t say anything special about exchange rate

                                    After a meeting with Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said “I told the prime minister that recent rapid yen moves were undesirable”.

                                    “(Kishida) did not say anything special but I told him that it was important for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals,” he added. “I’ll fully watch currency movements carefully from now on as well and will appropriately respond to them while liaising with the government.”

                                    10-yr JGB yield back below 0.21% after massive BoJ purchases

                                      BoJ offered to purchase unlimited amounts of 5- and 10-year JGBs today. That’s part of the central bank’s move to cap 10-year yield at 0.25%, after doubling down on maintaining this position and the overall ultra loose policy stance last Friday. Just last week, BoJ bought JPY 10.9T yen of government bonds, the most on record according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

                                      BoJ’s move seems to be working well finally with 10-year JGB yield now down below 0.21% handle, after breaking above 0.27% later week.

                                      New Zealand BusinessNZ services rose to 55.2, back above average

                                        New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 52.2 to 55.2 in May. Activity/sales rose sharply from 53.3 to 59.6. But employment dropped from 51.0 to 48.5. New orders/business rose from 55.2 to 62.0. Stocks/inventories ticked down from 55.0 to 54.6. Supplier deliveries rose from 40.5 to 45.0.

                                        BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “while the improvement was far from universal across components, reflecting many ongoing challenges across segments of the service sector, the overall outcome was the first above average result since the outbreak of Delta in August last year.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Fed Waller: Fed is all in on re-establishing price stability

                                          Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech over the weekend that “if the data comes in as I expect, I will support a similar-sized move at our July meeting,” referring to the 75bps hike at the June meeting. He added, “the Fed is ‘all in’ on re-establishing price stability.”

                                          “It should not have been a surprise that the policy rate would rise fast in 2022. Rate hikes would need to be larger and more frequent, relative to the 2015-2018 tightening pace, to get back to neutral.”

                                          “Looking back, should the Committee have signaled a steeper rate path once the liftoff criteria had been met? Perhaps another lesson is that giving forward guidance about liftoff should also include forward guidance about the possible path of the policy rate after liftoff.”

                                          Full speech here.