ECB Centeno: Fragmentation has to be dealt with in their genesis

    ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said the new instrument will “fight the risks of fragmentation” as monetary policy is gradually normalized. He emphasized that fragmentation has to be dealt with “in their genesis and not afterwards”.

    The instrument “will certainly demonstrate the determination of the euro system and the council of governors in containing these risks”.

    “There is no single typology of indicators to measure the materialization of fragmentation,” he added. “There is no goal regarding specific yield spread values”.

    Germany Ifo business climate ticked down to 92.3

      Germany Ifo business climate dropped slightly from 93.0 to 92.3 in June, below expectation of 92.9. Current assessment index dropped from 99.6 to 99.3, above expectation of 99.0. Expectations index dropped 86.9 to 85.8, below expectation of 87.4.

      By sector, manufacturing dropped from 2.7 to 0.3. Service rose from 8.2 to 10.8. Trade dropped from -10.7 to -14.8. Construction rose from -13.4 to -9.7.

      Ifo said: “Companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation. Their expectations turned markedly more pessimistic. The threat of gas shortages is of great concern to the German economy.”

      Full release here.

      BoJ Amamiya: Will continue to support the economy with monetary easing

        BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said, “the BOJ will continue to support the economy with monetary easing to achieve its inflation target in a sustained, stable manner accompanied by wage rises.”

        Amamiya also said the economy is picking up as a trend, but it’s facing “extremely high” uncertainty”. “Against this background, we must closely watch the impact financial and currency market moves could have on Japan’s economy and price,” he added.

        UK retail sales dropped -0.5% mom, linked to impact of food prices and cost of living

          UK retail sales volume dropped -0.5% mom in May, better than expectation of -0.9% mom. Ex-fuel sales dropped -0.7% mom, better than expectation of -1.4% mom.

          Over the 12-month period, retail sales dropped -4.7% yoy, versus expectation of -4.5% yoy. Ex-fuel sales dropped -5.7% yoy, versus expectation of -5.1% yoy.

          ONS said: “The fall in sales volumes over the month was because of food stores, which fell by 1.6%; reduced spending in food stores seems to be linked to the impact of rising food prices and the cost of living.”

          Full release here.

          UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped to -41 in Jun, another record low

            UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped from -40 to -41 in June, matched expectations, and set a new record low. Personal financial situation over the next 12 months dropped from -25 to -28. General economic situation for the next 12 months dropped from -56 to -57.

            Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says: “With a headline score of -41 for June, the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer has set a record low for the second successive month…. The consumer mood is currently darker than in the early stages of the Covid pandemic, the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum, and even the shock of the 2008 global financial crisis, and now there’s talk of a looming recession.”

            Full release here.

            Japan CPI core unchanged at 2.1% yoy, above target for second month

              Japan CPI core (all item ex-fresh food) was unchanged at 2.1% yoy in May, matched expectations. That’s the second month that core consumer inflation tops BoJ’s 2% target. All item CPI was unchanged at 2.5% yoy, below expectation of 2.9% yoy. CPI core-core (all item ex-food, energy) was unchanged at 0.8% yoy, above expectation of 0.4% yoy.

              But Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara warned in the press conference, “we think it is necessary to pay close attention to the downside risks of the economy such as pushing down private consumption and corporate activities.”

              Fed Bowman expects one more 75 bps hike, followed by subsequent 50bps hikes

                Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech she expects to “support additional rate increases until we see significant progress toward bringing inflation down”.

                Based on current inflation readings, she expects that “an additional rate increase of 75 basis points will be appropriate at our next meeting as well as increases of at least 50 basis points in the next few subsequent meetings”

                Full speech here.

                Bundesbank Nagel: Inflation expectations de-anchoring is worrying

                  Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said: “The risk of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored has risen over the past months. Risks to price stability exist.”

                  “Inflation expectations of households and firms in Germany are somewhat less anchored than, say, a year ago,” he said. “The increase is worrying.”

                  “If monetary policy falls behind the curve, even stronger hikes in interest rates could become necessary to get inflation under control,” Nagel warned. “This would create much higher economic costs.”

                  US initial jobless claims dropped slightly to 229k

                    US initial jobless claims dropped -2k to 229k in the week ending June 18, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4.5k to 223.5k.

                    Continuing claims rose 5k to 1315k in the week ending June 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -7k to 1310k, lowest since January 3, 1970.

                    Full release here.

                    UK PMI composite unchanged at 53.1, troubling combination of recession and inflation into H2

                      UK PMI Manufacturing dropped from 54.6 to 53.4 in June, below expectation of 53.8. That’s the lowest level in 23 months. PMI Services was unchanged at 53.4, above expectation of 53.0. PMI Composite was unchanged at 53.1.

                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The weakness of the broad flow of economic data so far in the second quarter points to a drop in GDP which the forward-looking PMI numbers suggest will gather momentum in the third quarter. While there are some signs that the inflation could soon peak, the survey data suggest the rate of inflation will meanwhile remain historically high for some time to come, indicating that the UK looks set for a troubling combination of recession and elevated inflation as we move into the second half of the year.”

                      Full report in PDF.

                      Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 16-mth low, just 0.2% GDP growth and worse to come

                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped from 54.6 to 52.0 in June, below expectation of 53.0. That’s the lowest level in 22 months. PMI Services dropped from 56.1 to 52.8, below expectation of 55.5, a 5-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 54.8 to 51.9, lowest in 16-months.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Eurozone economic growth is showing signs of faltering … Excluding pandemic lockdown months, June’s slowdown was the most abrupt recorded by the survey since the height of the global financial crisis in November 2008…. The slowdown means the latest data signal a rate of GDP growth of just 0.2% at the end of the second quarter, down sharply from 0.6% at the end of the first quarter, with worse likely to come in the second half of the year.”

                        Full release here.

                        Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 52 in Jun, services down to 52.4

                          Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped from 54.8 to 52.0 in June, below expectation of 54.0. That’s the lowest level in 23 months. PMI Services dropped from 55.0 to 52.4, below expectation of 54.5, a 5-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 53.7 to 51.3, a 6-month low.

                          Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                          “June’s flash PMI data show that Germany’s economy has lost virtually all the momentum gained from the easing of virus related restrictions, with growth in the service sector cooling sharply for the second month in a row in June.

                          “But perhaps the biggest cause for concern is a broad-based decline in demand, with a deepening downturn in manufacturing new orders coinciding with a first fall in service sector new business for six months, as rising prices and elevated levels of uncertainty take a toll. Activity is still being supported to some extent by workloads built up earlier in the year, however.

                          “Price pressures remain historically elevated. However, there are signs that businesses might be finding it increasingly difficult to pass on higher costs to customers, with average prices charged for goods and services rising at the slowest rate for three months despite a quicker increase in input costs that the survey in part linked to rising wage pressures.

                          “Thanks to a particularly grim outlook for the manufacturing sector, business confidence towards future activity is now at its lowest since the first wave of the pandemic two years ago, and we’re seeing this translate into a broad-based slowdown in job creation as companies start to reassess their staffing needs going forward.”

                          Full release here.

                          France PMI manufacturing dropped to 51 in Jun, services to 54.4

                            France PMI Manufacturing dropped sharply from 54.6 to 51.0 in June, well below expectation of 53.8. That’s the lowest level in 19 months. PMI Services dropped from 58.3 to 54.4, below expectation of 57.5, lowest in 5 months. PMI Composite dropped from 57.0 to 52.8, also a 5-month low.

                            Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                            “France endured a particularly sharp slowdown in growth during June, as well as a further bifurcation between the manufacturing and services economies. Nonetheless, trends deteriorated in a broad-based fashion over the month as high inflation begins to bite harder. Overall growth was at its slowest since the Omicron disruption was at its peak in January. Barring this though, the ‘flash’ PMI for June is at its lowest level since April 2021.

                            “While a loss of momentum was to be expected as the resumption of economic activities post-lockdown boosted growth, the slowdown has been aggravated by substantial price pressures. This has been particularly aggressive in the manufacturing sector, where output and new orders both declined strongly and for the first time since October last year, serving as a worrying sign for what could be to come for the service sector.

                            “The slowing economic trend in France is also compounded by a fresh bout of political uncertainty due to the hung parliament result in the national elections. Business confidence slid to a 19-month low in June. Overall, June ‘flash’ PMI data add to tangible recession risks for France.”

                            Full release here.

                            Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.7, but services jumped to 54.2

                              Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 53.3 to 52.7 in June, below expectation of 54.4. PMI Services rose from 52.6 to 54.2, highest since October 2013. PMI Composite Output rose form 52.3 to 53.2.

                              Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                              “Activity at Japanese private sector businesses rose solidly at the midway point of 2022 as border restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic were eased. The rise was the fourth in as many months and the sharpest recorded since last November amid the strongest expansion in the services sector since October 2013, with firms relating the increase to the return of international visitors. Concurrently, manufacturers signalled the softest upturn in the current four-month growth sequence as COVID-19 restrictions in mainland China contributed to further supply chain disruption and exacerbated existing supply and demand pressures.

                              “Private sector firms also noted a further robust increase in prices in June. While the rate of input price inflation remained broadly similar to May’s series record, the slight easing in inflation was the first for five months and provided tentative evidence that the rise in input prices had peaked. That said, prices charged for Japanese goods and services rose at an unprecedented rate for the second successive month as higher material and staff cost burdens were partially passed through to customers.”

                              Full release here.

                              Australia PMI composite dropped to 52.6, downside risks have increased

                                Australia PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 55.7 to 55.8 in June. PMI Services, on the other hand, dropped from 53.2 to 52.6. PMI Composite dropped from 52.9 to 52.6, a 5-month low.

                                Laura Denman, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                “Expansion across Australia’s private sector economy continued in June, according to the S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI. The easing of COVID-19 policies and opening of international borders has encouraged growth in demand, especially overseas. Stronger demand conditions have had a positive influence on other areas of the economy, with employment levels continuing to rise at a solid rate.

                                “That said, firms have taken advantage of rising demand levels and passed through higher costs to their selling prices at a substantial pace. With interest rates rising to contain rapid price pressures, as well as a fading boost to economic activity post-lockdown, downside risks to the Australian economy have increased.”

                                Full release here.

                                Fed Evans: Another 75bps hike in line with strong concerns on inflation

                                  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said another 75bps rate hike is a “very reasonable place” to have a discussion at next FOMC meeting. He said, “I think 75 would be in line with continued strong concerns that the inflation data isn’t coming down as quickly as we thought.”

                                  “The first thing that we’re looking at is to make sure we take the steam out of the inflation pressures,” he added.

                                  “We’re obviously taking on risk when we want to slow demand, to keep it in line with supply,” Evans said. “To think that we can fine tune something like this with tremendous precision — I mean, we just don’t have that ability.”

                                  Fed Harker: I’d like to get above 3%

                                    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said interest rates should go above 3% by the end of the year. Then Fed would assess how much more tightening is needed to bring inflation down.

                                    “We don’t have to overreact in terms of the fed funds rate,” Harker said during a conference held by the regional Federal Reserve bank. “We need to get above neutral, again I’d like to get above three, but I don’t think you have to accelerate rapidly beyond that at this point until we get a better understanding of what exactly the quantitative tightening is doing.”

                                    Fed Harker not ready to make a final decision on the next hike

                                      Philadelphia Fed’s Harker said he’s “not ready to make a final decision” on the next rate hike yet.

                                      “If we start to see demand soften — and we are seeing some signs that demand is starting to soften in certain sectors of the economy. And if it’s softening quicker than I anticipate, then it may be appropriate to go with a 50,” he added. “If it’s not, then it’s probably appropriate to go with the 75. But let’s see how the data turns out in the next few weeks.”

                                      “I think we’ve been very clear that we need to move to a restrictive stance,” he said. “How we get there is dependent on the data. So we can’t be that precise, [with] what we’re going to be doing in September or December right now. I mean, the data will dictate that.”

                                      Fed Powell: Ongoing rate increases will be appropriate

                                        In the prepared remarks for his semi annual testimony to Congress, Fed chair Jerome Powell said, “over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down”.

                                        “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy”, he added. The decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.

                                        Full remarks here.

                                        Canada CPI rose to 7.7% yoy in May, highest since 1983

                                          Canada CPI accelerated from 7.7% yoy to 6.8% yoy in May, above expectation of 7.5% yoy. That’s the highest reading since January 1983. The monthly rise 1.4% mom was the fastest since introduction of the series in 1992. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 6.3% yoy, up from April’s 5.8% yoy.

                                          CPI common rose from 3.5% yoy to 3.9% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy. CPI median rose from 4.6% yoy to 4.9% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy. CPI trimmed rose from 5.2% yoy to 5.4% yoy, matched expectations.

                                          Full release here.