Fed Mester: We’re not in a recession, have more work to do on inflation

    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a Washington Post interview yesterday, “I don’t believe we’re in a recession… We don’t have a slowdown in labor markets, and that’s two key factors that go into calling a recession.”

    “Our policy has been to raise interest rates in order to cool down the demand side of the economy…. but certainly it hasn’t slowed enough, (a), to call it a recession; and (b), to even see that moderation in demand showing through yet to a moderation and a cooling-off of price increases and inflation,” she added.

    “We have more work to do because we have not seen that turn in inflation. It’s got to be a sustained several months of evidence that inflation has first peaked – we haven’t even seen that yet – and that it’s moving down,” she also noted.

    Full interview here.

    Fed Daly: Need to keep committed until actually seeing inflation down in data

      San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Fed is “nowhere near almost done”, with inflation. “We have made a good start and I feel really pleased with where we’ve gotten to at this point.”

      “It really would be premature to unwind all of that and say the job is done,” she said. “I also think that we’ve been with this high inflation for a while, and really getting too confident that we’ve already solved the problem,” Daly said, adding that the Fed needs to “keep committed until we actually see it in the data.”

      Fed Evans: 50bps hike next is reasonable, 75bps also ok

        Chicago Fed President Charles Evan said that is things “weren’t improving”, the 50bps rate hike in September is a “reasonable assessment”, but 75 bps “could also be ok”. He added “I doubt that more would be called for.”

        “We wanted to get to neutral expeditiously. We want to get a little restrictive expeditiously,” Evans added. “We want to see if the real side effects are going to start coming back in line … or if we have a lot more ahead of us.”

        Canada PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.5, another slowdown in operating conditions

          Canada PMI Manufacturing dropped from 54.6 to 52.5 in July, hitting the lowest level in more than two years.

          Shreeya Patel, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

          “Latest PMI data revealed another slowdown in operating conditions in Canada’s manufacturing sector with the PMI at its lowest point for just over two years. Behind the latest moderation were contractions in both output and new orders which fell for the first time since the pandemic began in the first half of 2020.

          “Firms continue to face sharply rising costs, which have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Policymakers have reaffirmed their stance on tackling inflation by raising interest rates by a full percentage point last month.

          “Companies in Canada will hope price pressures continue to ease and demand from both international and domestic markets improves. In the meantime, firms remain cautiously optimistic about their 12-month outlook for output.”

          Full release here.

          Swiss SECO consumer sentiment dropped to -42, worse than pandemic low

            Swiss SECO Consumer Sentiment dropped sharply from -27 to -42 in Q3, worse than expectation of -34. It’s even below the -39 reading after the onset of the pandemic in April 2020. Expected economic development dropped further from -31.4 to -53.5, far below its long-term average at -9. Expected financial situation dropped from -24.9 to -34.8, undershooting previous low of -26 in January 1995.

            Full release here.

            AUD/JPY falls after RBA, heading to 90 projection level

              AUD/JPY’s decline continues today after RBA delivered the 50bps rate hike as expected, and turned a bit cautious about the policy normalization path ahead. Of course, Yen’s persistent, broad-based rally elsewhere is a factor pressing the cross.

              With 91.41 support taken out, immediate focus is now on 100% projection of 96.86 to 91.41 from 95.68 at 90.23. Firm break there will be a sign of downside acceleration. That would also raise that chance that it’s already in correction to the medium term up trend. In this bearish case, current decline should target next support zone between 95.78 and 87.28 next.

              Nevertheless, above 92.27 minor resistance will indicate stabilization first, before taking the next move.

              RBA hikes 50bps, normalization to continue but not on pre-set path

                RBA raises the cash rate target by 50bps to 1.85% as widely expected. It also maintains hawkish bias, and noted, “the Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead”.

                Nevertheless, the normalization is “not on a pre-set path”. “The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market,” it added.

                RBA forecasts inflation to hit around 7.75% over 2022, then slow to a little above 4% over 2023, and then around 3% in 2024. GDP growth is projected to be at 3.25% over 2022 and 1.75% over the next two years. Unemployment rate is forecast to climb from current 3.5% to around 4% at the end of 2024.

                “Behaviour of household spending” continues to be a “key source of uncertainty”. The central bank will “paying close attention to how these various factors balance out as it assesses the appropriate setting of monetary policy.”

                Full statement here.

                US ISM manufacturing ticked down to 52.8, prices fell to acceptable level at 60.0

                  US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.0 to 52.8 in July, above expectation of 52.0. Looking at some details, new orders dropped -1.2 to 48.0. Production dropped -1.4 to 53.5. Employment rose 2.6 to 49.9. Prices dropped sharply by -18.5 to 60.0.

                  ISM said: “”The U.S. manufacturing sector continues expanding — though slightly less so in July — as new order rates continue to contract, supplier deliveries improve and prices soften to acceptable levels.”

                  “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for July (52.8 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 6.6% in Jun, EU at 7.2%

                    Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in June, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate was also stable at 7.2%.

                    Eurostat estimates that 12.931 million men and women in the EU, of whom 10.925 million in the euro area, were unemployed in June 2022. Compared with June 2021, unemployment decreased by 2.311 million in the EU and by 1.957 million in the euro area.

                    Full release here.

                    UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.1, shifted into reverse gear

                      UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in July, down from 52.8 in June. That’s also the lowest level in 25 months. S&P Global said that output fell in consumer and intermediate goods industries. Job created accelerated as companies addressed staff shortages.

                      Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                      “The UK manufacturing sector shifted into reverse gear at the start of the third quarter. Output contracted for the first time since May 2020, as new order intakes suffered the first back-to-back monthly decreases for two years.

                      “Rising market uncertainty, the cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine, ongoing supply issues and inflationary pressures are all hitting demand for goods at the same time, while lingering post-Brexit issues and the darkening global economic backdrop are hampering exports.

                      “With the Bank of England implementing further interest rate hikes to combat inflation, the outlook is beset with downside risks. With this in mind, the continued low degree of optimism among manufacturers is of little surprise.”

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.8, sinking into increasingly steep downturn

                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.8 in July, down from 52.1. That’s also a 25-month low. PMI Manufacturing Output Index was finalized at 46.3, down from June’s 49.3, a 26-month low.

                        Looking at some member states, PMI manufacturing in the Netherlands dropped to 20-month low at 54.5. Austria recovered to 2-month high at 51.7. France (49.6, 26-month low), Germany (49.3, 25-month low), Greece (49.1, 19-month low), Spain (48.7, 26-month low), and Italy (48.5, 25-month low) were all in contraction.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Eurozone manufacturing is sinking into an increasingly steep downturn, adding to the region’s recession risks….

                        “Production is falling at especially worrying rates in Germany, Italy and France, but is also now in decline in all other surveyed countries except the Netherlands, and even here the rate of growth has slowed sharply…

                        “The energy crisis adds to the risks that not only will weaker demand and destocking cause manufacturing production to decline at an increased rate in the coming months, but reduced energy supply will act as an additional drag on the sector.”

                        Full release here.

                        China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.4, continued recovery

                          China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped from 51.7 to 50.4 in July, below expectation of 51.5. Caixin said there were softer increases in output and new orders. Employment fell at quicker pace. Input cost inflation slowed notably while prices charged fell again.

                          Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “In general, the eased Covid situation and restrictions facilitated a continuous recovery in the manufacturing sector in July. Supply and demand continued to improve, with supply stronger than demand. Employment lagged, remaining in contractionary territory. Costs gradually rose, with output prices on the decline, posing challenges for company profits. The market held on to positive sentiment, along with concerns about the economic outlook.”

                          Full release here.

                          Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.1, headline masked worrying trends

                            Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in July, down from June’s 52.7. That’s the lowest level since September 2021. S&P Global said there were renewed reductions in output and new orders. The softest rise in outstanding business 17 months was due to weaker demand. Rising prices and delivery delays led to accelerated stock building.

                            Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The Japanese manufacturing sector saw a modest improvement in operating conditions at the start of the second half of the year, however the headline PMI masked some worrying trends when looking at the underlying sub-indices, which add downside risks for the sector. New order inflows fell for the first time in ten months and at the fastest pace since November 2020, which contributed to a renewed contraction in production levels – the first since February.

                            “Weaker demand conditions also contributed to reduced pressure on operating capacity. Backlogs of work increased at the softest rate in 17 months, which hints at a further weakening of output over the coming months.

                            “Anecdotal evidence also pointed to an acceleration in stock building activity among Japanese goods producers. Firms often cited that rising prices and delivery delays had led to greater purchasing activity and holdings of raw materials and other inputs, while delays meant that manufacturers held on to finished items until logistical capacity improved.

                            “Beyond the immediate future, firms remained confident about the year-ahead outlook for output, though the degree of optimism was little-changed from June. That said, increased downside risks from price and supply pressures remain apparent. S&P Global estimates that industrial production will rise only 0.2% in 2022, meaning that output lost to the pandemic is unlikely to be recovered until the start of 2024.”

                            Full release here.

                            Australia AiG manufacturing dropped to 52.5, manufacturers simply can’t meet demand

                              Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -1.5 to 52.5 in July. Looking at some details, production dropped sharply by -7.2 to 47.5. Employment dropped -0.9 to 50.1. New orders rose 4.2 to 59.9. Supplier deliveries dropped -4.1 to 47.4. Exports dropped -1.8 to 51.2. Input prices dropped -9.6 to 79.7. Selling prices dropped -3.3 to 64.5.

                              Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “The supply and labour constraints afflicting the Australian economy are weighing heavily on the manufacturing sector. Production and employment both fell in July, as manufacturers struggle with chronic labour shortages and supply chain interruptions. New orders rose this month, but our manufacturers simply can’t meet this demand without more workers.”

                              Full release here.

                              Fed Kashkari: Technically in a recession or not, Fed is committed to fight inflation

                                Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in a CBS interview on Sunday, “we are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation, and that’s where we need to get to.”

                                “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis,” he added. “I’m focused on the inflation data. I’m focused on the wage data. And so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. Wages continue to grow.”

                                “Typically, recessions demonstrate high job losses, high unemployment, those are terrible for American families. And we’re not seeing anything like that,” he said.

                                “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change the fact that the Federal Reserve has its own work to do, and we are committed to doing it,” Kashkari said.

                                 

                                Canada GDP unchanged in May, grew 0.1% mom in Jun

                                  Canada GDP was essentially unchanged in May, better than expectation of -0.2% mom contraction. Services-producing industries rose grew 0.4% mom while goods-producing industries contracted -1.0%. 14 of 20 industrial sectors increased.

                                  Advance information indicates that GDP grew 0.1% mom in June, as output was up in the construction, manufacturing, and accommodation and food services sectors. Also, GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q2.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US PCE inflation rose to 6.8% yoy, core CPI rose to 4.8% yoy

                                    US personal spending rose 0.6% mom or USD 133.5B in June, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Personal spending rose 1.1% mom or USD 181.1B, above expectation of 0.9% mom. The rise in spending reflected USD 94.9B increase in goods and USD 86.2B in services.

                                    Headline PCE price index accelerated from 6.3% yoy to 6.8% yoy, above expectation of 6.7% yoy. That’s also the highest level since January 1982. Core PCE price index also rose from 4.7% yoy to 4.8% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone CPI rose to record 8.9% yoy, core CPI rose to 4% yoy

                                      Eurozone CPI rose from 8.6% yoy to 8.9% yoy in July, above expectation of 8.7% yoy. That’s also another record high. CPI core (all-items ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) rose from 3.7% yoy to 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.8% yoy.

                                      Looking at the main components inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (39.7%, compared with 42.0% in June), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (9.8%, compared with 8.9% in June), non-energy industrial goods (4.5%, compared with 4.3% in June) and services (3.7%, compared with 3.4% in June).

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q2, EU up 0.6% qoq

                                        Eurozone GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q2, well above expectation of 0.1% qoq. Comparing with same quarter of last year, GDP grew 4.0% yoy.

                                        EU GDP grew 0.6% qoq, 4.0% yoy. Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter 2022, Sweden (+1.4%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Spain (+1.1%) and Italy (+1.0%). Declines were recorded in Latvia (-1.4%), in Lithuania (-0.4%) and in Portugal (-0.2%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Swiss KOF dropped to 90.1, economy to develop sluggishly in Autumn

                                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped sharply from 95.2 to 90.1 in July, well below expectation of 95.2. That’s also the third decline in a row, with the value below its long-term average by almost 10 pts. KOF said the Swiss economy is likely to “develop sluggishly in autumn”.

                                          KOF said: “The retreat in July is led by the bundle of indicators for manufacturing. But the outlook is also much less favourable than before in accommodation and food service activities, other services, and financial and insurance services. The negative tendency is also evident in the bundle of indicators for private consumption in general. The decline is dampened somewhat by the indicators for construction and foreign demand.”

                                          Full release here.