Sat, Sep 28, 2024 @ 09:24 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 186

Live Comments

Latest

Germany ZEW dropped to -55.3, further decline in already weak economic growth

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped slightly from -53.8 to -55.3 in August, below expectation of -52.7. Current Situation index dropped from -45.8 to -47.6, above expectation of -48.0.

    Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -51.1 to -54.9, below expectation of -52.0. Current Situation Index rose 2.5 pts to -42.0. Eurozone inflation expectations rose 2.1 pts to -23.5, indicating a reduction of the high inflation rates within the next six months.

    “The ZEW Economic Expectations decrease again slightly in August after a sharp drop in the previous month. The financial market experts therefore expect a further decline in the already weak economic growth in Germany. The still high inflation rates and the expected additional costs for heating and energy lead to a decrease in profit expectations for the private consumption sector. In contrast, the expectations for the financial sector are improving due to the supposed further increase in short-term interest rates”,  comments Michael Schröder, researcher at ZEW and head of the ZEW financial market survey, on current results.

    Full release here.

    UK payrolled employment rose 73k in Jul, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8% in Jun

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      UK payrolled employment increased by 73k, or 0.2% mom, in July. Comparing with the same month a year ago, payrolled employees rose 29.7m, or 2.9% yoy. Claimant count dropped -10.5k, smaller than expectation of -32.9k. Median monthly pay rose 6.6% yoy to GBP 2108.

      In the three months to June, unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, matched expectations. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 4.7% 3moy, above expectation of 4.4%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.1% 3moy, below expectation of 5.2%.

      Full release here.

      RBA Minutes: Further monetary policy normalization expected

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        In the minutes of the August 2 meeting, RBA expects to “take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead”. However, it is “not on a pre-set path.” The path is a “narrow one” and “subject to considerable uncertainty”. The size of timing of future rate hikes will be guided by incoming data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and labor market, including the risks.

        RBA said that inflation is expected to “peak later in 2022”, then decline to top of 2-3% target range by the end of 2024. The expected moderation reflected “the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, the stabilization of commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates in Australia and overseas”. Medium-term inflation expectation remained “well anchored”.

        The Australian economy was “growing strongly” with resilient consumer spending and positive investment outlook. National income was boosted by rise in terms of trade to record high”. Outlook is expected to “remain strong” for the rest of 2022, then slow in 2023 and 2024. Employment was “growing strongly” and further declines in unemployment rate were expected over the months ahead.

        Full minutes here.

        Canada manufacturing sales dropped -0.8% mom

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Canada manufacturing sales dropped -0.8% mom to CAD 71.8b in June, slightly worse than expectation of -0.7% mom. Sales were lower in 8 of 21 industries.

          The decline was led by the petroleum and coal product (-7.8%), wood product (-7.2%) and aerospace product and parts (-16.8%) industries. Meanwhile, sales of motor vehicles (+13.8%) and chemical products (+6.0%) increased the most.

          Full release here.

          US Empire state manufacturing fell to -31.3, second largest monthly plunge on record

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            US Empire State manufacturing index plunged sharply from 11.1 to -31.3 in August, well below expectation of 5.1. The -42 pts decline was the second largest monthly fall on record. 12% of respondents reported conditions had improved while 55% reported worsened condition.

            Expectations for six months ahead, on the other hand, rose from -6.2 to 2.1. The reading suggests that firms were not optimism about the six-month outlook.

            Full release here.

            WTI resumes down trend, eyeing 85.9 support

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              WTI crude oil falls through 88.20 support today to resume the decline from 124.12.The selloff came following a batch of weaker than expected economic data from China. In particular, refiners processed only 53.21 tonnes of crude oil in July, -8.8% lower than a year ago. The daily equivalent of 12.53m bpd was the lowest since March 2020. Overall, economic data prompt concerns of slowing oil demand from China.

              On the supply side, it could be boosted is the US and Iran could revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian indicated that an agreement can be concluded if the US agrees to three remaining issues.

              Immediate focus is now on cluster support at 85.92 in WTI. Current fall from 124.12 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 131.82. Strong support should be seen from 85.92 to bring reversal to complete the pattern. Break of 95.91 resistance will be the first sign of reversal.

              However, sustained break of 85.92 will argue that fall from 131.82 is probably more than just a correction. Deeper decline would be seen back to 62.90 support.

              China data disappoints, PBoC cuts MLF rate

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                China industrial production rose 3.8% yoy in July, below expectation of 4.6% yoy, slowed from 3.9% yoy. Retail sales rose 2.7% yoy, below expectation of 5.0% yoy, slowed from 3.1% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 5.7% ytd yoy, below expectation of 6.2%.

                “The national economy maintained strong recovery momentum,” the NBS said in a statement. But it warned of rising stagflation risks globally and said “the foundation for the recovery of the domestic economy has yet to be consolidated.”

                Separately, PBoC cut a key interest rate for the second time this year and withdrew some cash from the banking system on Monday The rate on one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans is lowed by 10 bps to 2.75%. The PBOC attributed its move to “keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample”.

                Japan GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, exceeding pre-pandemic level finally

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Japan GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, below expectation of 0.6% qoq. In annualized term, GDP grew 2.2%, below expectation of 2.5%. The size of the economy was lifted to JPY 542.1T, finally exceeding pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019.

                  Growth was driven by 1.1% gain in private consumption. Capital expenditure rose 1.4%. Public investment rose 0.9%. Exports and imports rose 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

                  NZ BusinessNZ services dropped to 51.2, back below average

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dropped from 54.7 to 51.2 in July. Activity/Sales dropped from 55.8 to 54.4. Employment dropped from 52.7 to 49.2.New orders/business dropped from 60.5 to 52.5. Stocks/inventories dropped from 54.0 to 53.1. Supplier deliveries dropped from 48.4 to 47.3.

                    BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “it is difficult to be sure from one month’s data, but July’s outcome is the lowest since February, has retreated further from the recent 54.9 peak set in May, and is back below average.”

                    Full release here.

                    NIESR: UK economy entered recession in Q2, to stay there until Q1

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      NIESR projects the UK economy to contract -0.1% in Q2, with growth likely to slow further as inflation drags on consumer demand. UK appears to have entered a recession in Q2 already. It expects the recession to last until Q1 of 2023.

                      GDP growth is estimated at 3.5% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023. It expects CPI inflation to peak close to 11% in Q3, and return to around 3% a year later, resulting from “slowing in energy price inflation, a tightening in monetary policy and falls in real incomes leading to falling demand”.

                      “It now looks like the UK economy entered a recession in the second quarter of this year as GDP fell by 0.1 per cent, and we expect output to continue falling over the next three quarters. On the expenditure side, the fall in Q2 was driven by a 0.2 per cent fall in consumption; on the output side, by a 0.4 per cent fall in services, particularly, health and social work. GDP fell by 0.6 per cent in June after a revised rise of 0.4 per cent in May as the Platinum Jubilee celebrations affected the monthly profiles.” Stephen Millard, Deputy Director for Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting, NIESR

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in June, EU up 0.6% mom

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in June, above expectation of 0.0% mom. Production of capital goods rose by 2.6% mom and energy by 0.6% mom, while production of intermediate goods fell by -0.1% mom, durable consumer goods by -0.6% mom and non-durable consumer goods by -3.2% mom.

                        EU industrial production rose 0.6% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+6.7%), Malta (+4.8%) and Greece (+3.4%). The largest decreases were observed in Romania (-3.9%), Belgium (-2.2%), Italy and Latvia (both -2.1%).

                        Full release here.

                        UK GDP down -0.6% mom in Jun, -0.1% qoq in Q2

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          UK GDP contracted -0.6% mom in June, better than expectation of -1.3% mom. All main sectors contributed negatively to the monthly GDP estimate. Services was the main contributor, down -0.5%. Production dropped -0.9% mom. while construction also fell by -1.4% mom. Monthly GDP was still 0.9% above its pre-coronavirus levels in February 2020.

                          For the whole of Q2, GDP contracted -0.1% qoq, above expectation of -0.2% qoq. The level of GDP was 2.9% yoy higher than Q2 2021. Also, compared with the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator rose by 6.0%, primarily reflecting the 7.3% increase in the price of household consumption expenditure, which is the fastest annual household deflator growth rate since 1991.

                          Full monthly GDP release here.

                          GBP/AUD breaks out from medium term range, EUR/AUD to follow

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            GBP/AUD finally broke out from medium term consolidation and resume down trend this week. EUR/AUD is also following and look ready for down trend resumption too. The development came as commodity currencies generally responded better to receding expectation of another 75bps Fed hike, than European majors.

                            GBP/AUD’s fall is seen as part of the down trend from 1.9218, as well as that from 2.0840 (2020 high). Both near term and medium term bearishness are maintained well with the cross capped by falling 55 day and 55 week EMA. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9218 to 1.7171 from 1.7649 at 1.6384.

                            EUR/AUD also resumed the fall from 1.5396 through 1.4580 support. It’s now targeting 1.4318 low (corresponding to GBP/AUD’s 1.7171 support). Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high), and target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low).

                            Fed Daly: 50bps is the case for Sep FOMC meeting

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Bloomberg TV overnight that 50bps rate hike “is the case” for September FOMC meeting. But added, “I am open to 75 should the data evolve differently.”

                              Daly didn’t expect rate cuts to quickly follow the current tightening cycle once inflation is conquered. “I don’t see this hump-shaped part where we raise interest rates to really high rates and then bring them down,” she said. “I think of raising them to a level that we think is going to be appropriate and then holding them there.”

                              NZD/USD completed head and shoulder bottom, targets 0.657/9

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                NZD/USD surges to as high as 0.6452 so far today and it’s still in upside acceleration mode. This week’s break of 0.6351 resistance completes a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.6195, h: 0.6059, rs: 0.6211). The strong break of 55 day EMA, and bullish convergence condition in daily MACD are both bullish signs too.

                                Further rise is now expected as long as 0.6351 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 0.6575 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 0.7463 to 0.6059 at 0.6595). This is the major resistance zone for NZD/USD to overcome. Decisive break there will raise the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Meanwhile, rejection by 0.6575/95 will maintain medium term bearishness.

                                US initial jobless claims rose 14k to 262k

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  US initial jobless claims rose 14k to 262k in the week ending August 6, slightly below expectation of 265k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4.5k to 252k.

                                  Continuing claims rose 8k to 1428k in the week ending July 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 24k to 1399k.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US PPI down -0.5% mom in Jul, slowed to 9.8% yoy

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    US PPI for final demand dropped -0.5% mom in July, versus expectation of 0.2% mom rise. The decrease is attributable to -1.8% mom decline in goods while services rose 0.1% mom. For the 12-months, PPI rose 9.8% yoy, slowed from June’s 11.3% yoy.

                                    Prices for final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.2% mom. For the 12 months, PPI less foods, energy and trade services rose 5.8% yoy.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Fed Daly: 50bps hike in Sep is her baseline

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      In an FT interview, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said , “there’s good news on the month-to-month data that consumers and business are getting some relief, but inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal,”

                                      “This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down,” she said. “We’re not near done yet.”

                                      She reiterated her view that rise should rise to just under 3.5% by the end of the year. And her baseline for September FOMC meeting is a 50bps hike.

                                      “There is a lot of uncertainty, so leaping ahead with great confidence that [a 0.75 percentage point rate rise] is what we need and being prescriptive would not be optimal policy,” she said.

                                      DOW to take on 55 W EMA after strong rally

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        US stocks staged a strong rally yesterday on hope that inflation has finally peaked. DOW gained 535pts or 1.63% to close at 33309.

                                        The development affirms the case that whole correction from January’s peak at 36952 .65 has completed with three waves down to 29653.29. 55 week EMA (now at 33169.39) is now the key hurdle to overcome. Sustained trading above that will add even more credence to the bullish case. That should set the stage for further rally to retest 36952.65 later in the year.

                                        For the near term, in any case, further rise is expected as long as 32387.12 support holds.

                                        Fed Kashkari wants rate at 3.9% by year-end, 4.4% next

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that in the June economic projections, he recommended interest rate at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% next. He added, “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”

                                          Even after yesterday’s July CPI release, the Fed is “far away from declaring victory” on inflation, Kashkari said. “This is just the first hint that maybe inflation is starting to move in the right direction, but it doesn’t change my path.”

                                          “I think a much more likely scenario is we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates,” he said.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.