RBA raises cash rate target by 50bps to 2.35% as widely expected. The Board “expects to increase interest rates further over the months ahead”, but it’s “not on a pre-set path”. The size and timing of future hikes will be “guided by the income data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market.”
Regarding inflation, RBA expects it to peak “later this year”. The central forecasts is for CPI to be around 7.75% over 2022, a little above 4% over 2023, and then around 3% over 2024.
The economy is “continuing to grow solidly” as boosted by a “record level of the terms of trade”. Labor market is “very tight” while wages growth “has picked up”.
It maintained that an important source of uncertainty is household spending, which is facing pressure from higher inflation and higher interest rates.
CAD/JPY upside breakout, targets 108.52, then 109.93
CAD/JPY breaks through 107.62 high today on broad based Yen selloff. The break of near term channel resistance also indicates upside acceleration. Further rally is expected now as long as 106.55 minor support holds. Next near term targets are 161.8% projection of 101.39 to 105.07 from 102.57 at 108.52, and then 200% projection at 109.93.
Current development also indicates resumption of long term up trend from 73.80 (2020 low). Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 73.80 to 91.16 from 84.65 at 112.73.