BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said plans by new Prime Minister Liz Truss on energy costs could help slowing inflation. He told the Parliament’s Treasury Committee today, “one of the things that does seem to be under consideration … is a change to the relationship between gas prices and retail gas prices in a direction that will lower headline inflation, relative to what we were forecasting,”
Governor Andrew Bailey said, “It’s not for us to comment on what fiscal policy will be and we will wait and see what it is … but I do very much welcome the fact that there will be, as I understand it, announcements this week because I think that will help to, in a sense, frame policy and that’s important.”
MPC member Silvana Tenreyro favors a more tentative approach on tightening. She said, “When close to the equilibrium rate, gradual rate rises allow us to react before we tighten too far into contractionary territory, as we observe the lagged impact of policy and demand on the labor market. They also do not preclude voting for more forceful rate increases in future, should adverse wage-price dynamics take hold.”
On the other hand Catherine Mann reiterated her stance that “a more forceful set of moves in Bank Rate earlier on opens the potential for a policy hold, or even reversal, later depending on the evolution of both inflation and demand relative to supply.”
Fed Evans: We need to be increasing interest rates up to a substantially higher level
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “I think that we’ve got a good plan in place. We could very well do 75 in September. My mind is not made up. I do know that we need to be increasing interest rates up to a substantially higher level than where they are now.”
“I think the precise path is less important than just constantly telling people, we’re on this path, this is what we’re going to do, inflation is job one, we’re going to handle this,” Evans said.
“Unemployment is 3.7% right now. I’m optimistic that we’re going to be able to navigate this and keep unemployment to about 4.5% by the time we’re done,” he said. “That would still be a pretty good outcome, although it will be costly for some.”
“I would prefer to find an appropriate spot to pause and monitor how things are going, rather than go much higher — potentially overshoot,” he said. “I wouldn’t say that I’m advocating sort of pausing at 3.5%, because I think 4 is more likely.”