US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 242k in the week ending June 8, above expectation of 227k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 222k.
Continuing claims rose 30k to 1820k in the week ending June 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8.5k to 1797k.
In the Chair’s summary of the two days meeting of the G7 finance ministers and central bank governor’s over the weekend, it’s written that there was unanimous concern over recent trade actions of the US.
The statement said that “concerns were expressed that the tariffs imposed by the United States on its friends and allies, on the grounds of national security, undermine open trade and confidence in the global economy.”
And, “Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors requested that the United States Secretary of the Treasury communicate their unanimous concern and disappointment.”
Also, there was exchanges on the benefits of an open rules-based trading system. At the same time “many highlighted the negative impact of unilateral trade actions by the United States”. And the finance ministers and central bank governors urged to continue the discussion at the “leaders’ Summit in Charlevoix, where decisive action is needed”, “to restore collaborative partnerships to promote free, fair, predictable and mutually beneficial trade.”
It also noted that “members continue to make progress on behalf of our citizens, but recognize that this collaboration and cooperation has been put at risk by trade actions against other members.
Full statement here.
A joint survey by AmCham China and AmCham Shanghai showed that over nearly two-thirds of survey respondents experienced negative impact from US-China tariff war. Moreover, for additional US tariffs, 74.3% expected negative impact and 47.2% expected “strong negative impact. For additional China tariffs, 67.6% expected negative impact and 38.2% expected “strong negative impacts”. Increased cost of manufacturing (47.1) and decreased demand for products (41.8%) were the to most significant downside of the tariffs.
William Zarit, Chairman of AmCham China said “the White House has threatened to fire the next barrage of tariffs at $200 billion more Chinese goods, expecting with this onslaught, or subsequent ones, China will wave a white flag. But that scenario risks underestimating China’s capability to continue meeting fire with fire.”
Eric Zheng, Chairman of AmCham Shanghai warned that “tariffs are already negatively impacting U.S. companies and the imposition of a proposed $200 billion tranche will bring a lot more pain”. And “if almost a half of American companies anticipate a strong negative impact from the next round of U.S. tariffs, then the U.S. administration will be hurting the companies it should be helping.”
The survey was conducted between August 29 and September 5, 2018. Over 430 companies responded.
In Q1, Australia’s CPI slowed from 4.1% yoy to 3.6% yoy, exceeding market expectations of 3.4% yoy. Similarly, trimmed mean CPI, which excludes volatile price items and provides a clearer view of underlying inflation trends, also decelerated less than expected, moving from 4.2% yoy to 4.0% yoy, against predictions of 3.8% yoy.
The breakdown by category shows a general slowdown across the board. Goods inflation decreased from 3.8% yoy to 3.1% yoy, while services inflation eased from 4.6% yoy to 4.3% yoy. Tradeable inflation, which includes items that can be imported or exported, slowed more significantly from 1.5% yoy to 0.9% yoy. Non-tradeable inflation, representing goods and services not exposed to international markets, also saw a reduction from 5.4% yoy to 5.0% yoy.
However, on a quarterly basis, CPI rose by 1.0% qoq in Q1, marking an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 0.6% qoq and outpacing expectations of a 0.8% rise. This quarterly increase suggests that, despite the annual slowdown, price pressures within the economy intensified at the start of the year. Trimmed mean CPI on a quarterly basis mirrored this trend, rising 1.0% qoq compared to the previous 0.8% qoq, also surpassing the expected 0.8% qoq.
Monthly figures reinforce the notion of persistent inflationary pressures, with CPI ticking up from 3.4% yoy to 3.5% yoy, again exceeding expectations.
RBA left cash rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. It also reaffirmed the 0.25% target for 3-year government bond yield with asset purchases. The central bank also said that it “will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.”
RBA also said noted there is “considerable uncertainty” about the near-term outlook of the economy. Much depends on the successful of coronavirus containment and the length of social distancing. Nevertheless, “a very large economic contraction” is expected in Q2 and unemployment is expected to rise to its “highest level for many years”.
Bitcoin gapped higher as the week starts, breaking through last week’s high and it’s back pressing 60k handle. Recent up trend is still in progress and bitcoin could break through record high at 60726 any time soon.
Yet, we’d maintain that it has been losing upside momentum since February, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, current rise from 50320 is seen as the fifth leg of the terminal triangle that started 29283. Hence the break to new record high should be relatively brief, and a sizeable correction should follow.
Nevertheless, in case of a pull back, break of 55555 support is needed to confirm short term topping first. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish and risk will stay on the upside.
Entering into US session, Yen is the strongest one for today followed by Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Australian Dollar leads other commodity currencies lower on risk aversion. The main theme for today is further evidence of slowdown in China. Trade balance data showed both imports and expects contracted in the fastest pace since 2016 in December.
On the other hand, Brexit is another major theme. Ahead of tomorrow’s vote in the parliament, UK Prime Minister Theresa May stepped her rhetorics. She warned that there are some MPs who wish to delay or even stop Brexit. And she urged MPs to vote to deliver what people decided in the referendum back in 2016. EU sent a “reassurance” letter to May today, pledging to work on a post-Brexti agreement by end of 2020 deadline to avoid triggering the backstop “in the most solemn manner”. But it’s unsure how such assurances could change the mind of those who already got a position. That is, those who believed no-deal Brexit is closest to what people want, and those who want no Brexit at all.
In European markets, currently:
Earlier in Asia:
It’s now less than an hour before UK CPI release. The piece of data is even more important after yesterday’s wage growth miss. To recap, headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.7% yoy in March. Core CPI is expected to rise to 2.5% yoy, up from 2.4% yoy.
So far, expectations on May BoE hike are firm. According to the latest Reuters poll, all but 7 of the 76 economists surveyed expected a 25bps hike in the Bank rate to 0.75% in May. Barring any disastrous result today, BoE should still be on course for a May hike. The question is indeed on whether BoE would hike again in November.
Technically, GBP’s rally stalled this week, particular clear against EUR and JPY.
61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.8967 at 0.8621 is so far a difficult level to break.
But from the EURGBP action bias table and D action bias chart, downside momentum remains firm. It should be just a matter of time that this 0.8621 level is taken out.
GBP/JPY also stalled after hitting 153.84.
But near term strengthen is quite apparent as seen in GBPJPY action bias table and D action bias chart.
Hence, while a CPI miss today might trigger setback in GBP, that should be temporary. On the other hand, GBP could skyrocket if we get something that beat market expectations.
In wake of Trump’s new tariff threats, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said a Chinese delegation was still preparing to travel to the US for another round of trade negotiations. However, there was no indication on the date of the trip, nor whether Vice Premier Liu He will lead the team.
Geng said in a press briefing that “we are now trying to get more information on the relevant situation.” And, “what I can tell you is that the Chinese team is preparing to travel to the U.S. for trade talks.”
“What is of vital importance is that we still hope the United States can work hard with China to meet each other half way, and strive to reach a mutually beneficial, win-win agreement on the basis of mutual respect,” Geng added.
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.7 in January, up from December’s 58.0. Markit said there were faster expansion in output and new orders. Employment growth improved to five-month high. Also, supplier performance had the least marked deterioration for a year.
Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing improved to 59.8, five month high. But Italy dropped to 11-month low at 58.3. France also dropped to 3-month low at 55.5. Overall readings were still strong with Austria at 61.5, the Netherlands at 60.1, Ireland at 59.4, Greece at 57.9 and Spain at 56.2.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone manufacturers appear to be weathering the Omicron storm better than prior COVID-19 waves so far, with firms reporting the largest production and order book improvements for four months in January. Prospects have also brightened, with a further easing in the number of supply chain delays playing a key role in prompting producers to revise up their expectations for growth in the coming year to the highest since last June…
“Escalating tensions surrounding Ukraine, the energy price crisis and prospect of global central bank policy tightening meanwhile create additional headwinds to the outlook, which suggest that – although the global supply crunch may be easing – demand conditions may be less supportive to manufacturers in coming months.”
In the Oval Office, Trump expressed his optimism on US-China trade negotiation despite current escalation in trade war, and announced new plan to aid farmed affected.
Trump reiterated that the negotiations were 95% done when China suddenly backtracked on its commitments. And, the US cannot let China continue to take advantage on trade. But he on further talks, he added “we’ll let you know in about three or four weeks whether of not it was successful. … But I have a feeling it’s going to be very successful”. Regarding the new round of tariffs on USD 325B in Chinese imports, Trump sounded non-committal and said he hasn’t made a decision yet.
He went further to once again hailed his “very good relationship” with Xi and indicate there could be a meeting soon. He said: “Maybe something will happen. We’re going to be meeting, as you know, at the G20 in Japan and that’ll be, I think, probably a very fruitful meeting.”
Additionally, Trump indicated the administration was planning a second round aids to farmers, at around USD 15B due to trade war. He said “we’re going to take the highest year, the biggest purchase that China has ever made with our farmers, which is about $15 billion, and do something reciprocal to our farmers so our farmers can do well.” And, “Out of the billions of dollars that we’re taking (tariffs), a small portion of that will be going to our farmers, because China will be retaliating, probably to a certain extent, against our farmers.”
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized the importance of a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy amidst uncertainty, suggesting that a slower pace doesn’t diminish commitment to achieving inflation goals.
Logan stated in a conference, “when conditions are uncertain, you may need to travel more slowly. But a slower pace of tightening shouldn’t signal any less commitment to achieving the inflation goal.” She further noted the potential for nonlinear deterioration of financial conditions, advocating for smaller, less frequent rate hikes to mitigate this risk.
Logan also underscored the multifaceted nature of monetary policy’s impact. She said, “The restrictiveness of monetary policy comes from the entire policy strategy – how fast rates rise, the level they reach, the time spent at that level and the factors that determine further increases or decreases.”
Seaprately, New York Fed President John Williams highlighted the time lag between policy decisions and their full impact on the economy, underlining the importance of monitoring the economy’s behavior post-decision. “We’ve got to make our decisions and then watch what happens, get that feedback, see how the economy’s behaving,” Williams explained.
In another occasion, Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, however, indicated it may be too soon to discuss rate cuts or changes to monetary policy. He said, “I think it’s far too premature to be talking about rate cuts and premature to be saying — even for the next meeting — are we going to pause? Are we going to raise? Are we going to cut.”
ECB President Christine Lagarde provided clarity in a speech on the conditions that would lead to a rate cut in June, highlighting reliance on “two important pieces of evidence” as pivotal to the central bank’s confidence on dialing back monetary restrictions. .
Firstly, ECB anticipates receiving data on negotiated wage growth for Q1 by the end of May. Secondly, by June, ECB will have access to a new set of economic projections, enabling it to verify the validity of the inflation path forecasted in its March projection.
After the first move, Lagarde emphasized to “confirm on an ongoing basis” that incoming data aligns with its inflation outlook. This approach underscores a commitment to data-driven policy decisions, maintaining a “meeting-by-meeting” stance that eschews any pre-commitment to a fixed rate path.
Furthermore, Lagarde noted the enduring significance of ECB’s policy framework in processing incoming data and determining the appropriate policy stance. However, she also mentioned that the relative importance of the three criteria guiding these decisions would require regular reassessment.
Copper prices dip notably today as metal traders appeared to be turning cautious ahead of FOMC rate decision. In addition, the market needs to seek direction from Chinese data including investment and production to gauge the outlook of demand.
Technically, Copper is facing a key cluster resistance zone at around 3.8229 support turned resistance, 55 D EMA (now at 3.8200), as well as 38.2% retracement of 4.3556 to 3.5393 at 3.8511. Rejection by this resistance zone, followed by 3.703 near term support will bring deeper fall back to 3.5393 low, with prospect of resuming the whole down trend from 4.3556. Given the correction between Australian Dollar and Copper, this bearish scenario could push AUD/USD back towards 0.6457 low.
On the other hand, sustained break of 3.8229/8511 will argue that whole fall from 4.3556 has completed with three waves down, and turn outlook bullish for 61.8% retracement at 4.0438 and above. This bullish development could help push AUD/USD through structural resistance at 0.6817 decisively.
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy in April, up from March’s 1.3% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 0.7% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.96 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.37 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.16 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.12 pp).
EU CPI was finalized at 2.0% yoy, up from March’s 1.7% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.1%), Portugal (-0.1%) and Malta (0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (5.2%), Poland (5.1%) and Luxembourg (3.3%). Compared with March, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-three.
Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 in August, down from 7and missed expectation of 5. That’s a two year low since August 2016, and it’s below long-run average. Confidence is lowest in wholesale and manufacturing, highest in mining and construction. And, confidence declined across all states except Western Australia and Queensland in the month, with New South Wales and Victoria continue to lag.
However, Business Condition rose to 15, up from 12 and matched expectations. Results were driven by increases in the profitability and trading indices. Forward looking indicators also rebounded a little in the month. Surveyed price and wage variables continue to show a gradual building of inflationary pressures.
BoC rate decision is today’s market highlight, as the consensus veers towards maintaining interest rate at 5.00%. The potential for a rate hike has dwindled, especially after the September CPI data revealed a more rapid deceleration in inflation than anticipated. Now, speculations swirl regarding the possibility of a “hawkish hold,” which leaves the door open for further tightening.
Market consensus on the BoC’s next moves, however, isn’t unanimous. A recent Reuters poll showcased a split opinion. A slim majority of 8 of the 18 economists surveyed perceive a a “high” likelihood of another hike. As for rate reductions, opinions stand divided too. 19 economists project rates falling beneath the current benchmark by the end of June, while 11 anticipate maintaining or even exceeding the current level.
As the BoC is set to unveil its latest growth and inflation forecasts, market participants are keenly awaiting insights that might shed light on the bank’s future monetary stance.
Amid these discussions, the Canadian Dollar isn’t faring well, even when pitted against the underperforming Yen. Risk is mildly on the downside for CAD/JPY as long as 109.96 resistance holds. Deeper fall is slightly in favor as to 107.51 support and below to extend the corrective pattern from 111.14 high. While a break of 109.96 will resume the rebound from 107.51. Breaking 111.14 to resume larger up trend is not expected. So upside potential is limited for the near term.
Eurozone CPI came in at 0.9% yoy in January, up from December’s -0.3% yoy, well above expectation of 0.4% yoy. Core PPI surged to 1.4% yoy, up from 0.2% yoy, well above expectation of 0.7% yoy.
Looking at the main components of Eurozone inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (1.5%, compared with 1.3% in December), followed by services (1.4%, compared with 0.7% in December), non-energy industrial goods (1.4%, compared with -0.5% in December) and energy (-4.1%, compared with -6.9% in December).
PPI came in at 0.8% mom, -1.1% yoy in December, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, -1.3% yoy. Industrial producer prices in the Eurozone in December 2020, compared with November 2020, increased by 2.2% in the energy sector, by 0.4% for intermediate goods and by 0.1% for capital goods and for durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.3%.
Kyodo news reported that, as trade frictions intensified, Japan is going to remove South Korea from the white list of countries that gives the latter preferential treatment in trade. The announcement could be made as soon as on August 2, and change could take effect after 21 days.
Japan is reported to have cited “significantly undermined” trust between the two countries and “certain issues” with South Korea’s export controls and regulations. After the move, products and technology that could be diverted to military use would need to obtain approval from Ministry of Economy before exporting to South Korea.
Asked about the plan, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference that nothing had been decided on the time frame. There are currently 27 countries on Japan’s white list including the United States, Britain, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and Argentina.
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Fed Bullard: Strong Q3 may put US economy at full recovery by year end
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the US economy may rebound at a 35% annualized rate in Q3. Additionally, the strong rebound in Q3 “may put the U.S. economy within reach of a sort of ‘full recovery’ by the end of 2020.” With another 10% growth in Q4, the national income could be in reach of 2019 average.
“These are big numbers, but not outside the realm of possibility,” he said. “I expect this rebound to continue in the U.S. as businesses learn how to produce products and services safely using simple, existing technology.”
Nevertheless, “Fed policy would be the same regardless of how optimistic or less optimistic you might be about the outlook,” he said. “I don’t think it’s that reasonable to expect a second-wave scenario to be the one that would dominate your forecasts.”