SECO downgrades Swiss GDP forecasts, upgrades CPI

    SECO downgraded Swiss GDP growth forecasts for 2022 from 2.6% to 2.0%. For 2023, GDP growth projection was also lowered from 1.9% to 1.1%. CPI forecasts for 2022 was raised from 2.5% to 3.0%, and for 2023 up from 1.4% to 2.3%.

    It said, “after a positive first half of the year 2022, the Swiss economy now faces a deteriorating outlook. A tense energy situation and sharp price increases are weighing on economic prospects, especially in Europe.”

    It also warned of risks from “serious gas or electricity shortages” in Europe, and “large-scale production stoppages and a marked downturn”. Such a negative scenario would likely lead to “high domestic price pressures” and “downward trend in the economy economy. With rising interest rates, ” risks associated with the surge in global debt are intensifying.

    Full release here.

    RBA minutes: Slower tightening comes with higher rates

      Minutes of RBA’s September 6 meeting revealed that there were discussions on whether to hike by 25bps or 50bps. But, “given the importance of returning inflation to target, the potential damage to the economy from persistent high inflation and the still relatively low level of the cash rate, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by a further 50 basis points.”

      RBA reiterated that there will be further interest rate hikes “over the months ahead”, but it’s it “not on a pre-set path”. The full effects of higher interest rates were “yet to be felt” on mortgages, activity and inflation.

      The board was “mindful” that the path to bring inflation back to target “needed to account for the risks to growth and employment. RBA is seeking to return inflation to target “while keeping the economy on an even keel”.

      Size of timing of future rate hikes will be “guided by the incoming data” and outlook for inflation and job market, and risks. “All else equal, members saw the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates as becoming stronger as the level of the cash rate rises”.

      Full minutes here.

      Japan CPI core rose to 3% yoy in Aug, highest in 31 years

        Japan CPI accelerated from 2.6% yoy to 3.0% yoy in August, above expectation of 2.6% yoy. CPI core (ex-fresh food), rose from 2.4% yoy to 2.8% yoy, above expectation of 2.7% yoy. CPI core-core (ex-fresh food, energy), also rose from 1.2% yoy to 1.6% yoy, but missed expectation of 1.7% yoy.

        CPI core, the BoJ watched reading, hit the highest level in 31 years since 1991, excluding the effect of sales tax hike. Even including the impact of sales tax, the reading was still the highest in nearly 8 years.

        BoJ is widely expected to continue to stand pat, and maintain negative interest rate later this week. But there are expectations that core inflation could hit 3% later in the year, and stay above the 2% target in the near term. That might start to change BoJ’s view on prices and policy at a later stage.

        Full release here.

        Ethereum tumbling, bitcoin follows

          Ethereum plummets further today and the post “merge surge” decline extends. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1474.00 minor resistance holds. Next near term target is 100% projection of 2028.90 to 1418.47 from 1787.45 at 1177.02. Firm break there could bring downside acceleration through 878.5 to 161.8% projection at 799.77.

          Bitcoin’s development is even worse. Deeper decline is expected as long as 20167 resistance holds, for 17575 low. Break there will target 100% projection of 25198 to 18518 from 22764 at 16084.

          Bundesbank: Inflation should move into double digits in the next few months

            Bundesbank said in the monthly report that there are “increasing signs that the German economy is slipping into a recession”. It added, “the high inflation and the uncertainty regarding the energy supply and its costs affect not only the gas and electricity-intensive industry and its export business and investments, but also private consumption and the service providers dependent on it.”

            Gas supply situation is expected to “remain extremely tense in the coming month”. For Q4 and Q1, economists expect a “noticeable decline in economic output”, and outlook is “extremely uncertain”.

            Regarding inflation, Bundesbank said the fiscal relief package will only be reflected in consumer prices at the beginning of next year. “The bottom line is that the inflation rate should move into the double digits in the next few months,” it added.

            Full release here.

            NZ BusinessNZ services rose to 58.6, bouncing for how long?

              New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 54.4 to 58.6 in August. Looking at some details, activity/sales rose from 54.4 to 67.1. Employment rose from 49.3 to 50.8. New orders/business rose from 53.4 to 66.5. Stocks/inventories rose from 53.8 to 59.6. Supplier deliveries rose from 47.6 to 49.6.

              BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “overall, combining August’s strong PSI with last week’s firmer PMI yields a composite index (PCI) that suggests annual GDP growth up toward 5% in Q3 2022.  We currently forecast 5%+ for that period but that strength is mostly a function of the very weak base period. If the PCI is truly bouncing, the key question is for how long?”

              Full release here.

              ECB Lane: Tightening is not pain free

                ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a conference over the weekend, monetary tightening is “going to dampen demand”, and “we’re not going to pretend this is pain free”.

                “Demand is now a source of inflation pressure, it was not six or nine months ago in the same way it now is,” he added.

                While rate hikes could continue at each remaining meeting of the year, and extend to early next year, Lane said ECB is open mind on where to stop with a meeting-by-meeting approach.

                On the economy, Lane said separately in an RTE interview, “If we think our base case is to barely grow, a technical recession – falling into a mild recession – cannot be ruled out.”

                Bundesbank Nagel: We have to be determined, in October and beyond

                  Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Sunday, “If the data trend continues, more interest-rate increases have to follow — that’s already agreed in the Governing Council. We have to be determined, in October and beyond.”

                  Nagel added that interest rates are still “somewhat off the levels” to curb inflation. “We must bring inflation back under control,” he said. “We mustn’t let up, even if the economy worsens.”

                  On the German economy, he said that momentum will likely slow in Q3 and Q4, but he’s confident that it could avoid a steep slump.

                  ECB de Guindos hopes recent depreciation in Euro is reversed in near future

                    ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told a Portuguese newspaper Expresso, “the slowdown of the economy is not going to ‘take care’ of inflation on its own.”

                    “The slowdown of the economy will reduce demand pressures, which will lower inflation,” he added. “But, simultaneously, we have to act from the monetary policy standpoint to keep inflation expectations anchored and avoid second-round effects.”

                    “We need to continue the normalization of monetary policy,” he said. “More hikes might come in the next few months — how many times and by how much will depend fundamentally on the data — and we underscore our full determination to make inflation converge toward our definition of price stability”

                    “Further depreciation of the euro could be detrimental to inflationary pressures. On the contrary, if the euro stopped depreciating, this could be positive and support the fight against inflation. I hope that the recent depreciation trend is reversed in the near future”, he also noted.

                    Canada wholesale sales dropped -0.6% mom in Jul, led by personal and household goods

                      Canada wholesale sales dropped -0.6% mom in July to CAD 80.2B, worse than expectation of -0.4% mom. That followed two consecutive months of record-high sales in May and June.

                      Declines in the personal and household goods subsector led the losses for July, followed by the building material and supplies, and the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsectors. Sales fell in five of seven subsectors, which represented 63% of wholesale sales.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone CPI finalized at 9.1% yoy in Aug, core CPI at 4.3% yoy

                        Eurozone CPI was finalized at 9.1% yoy in August, up from 8.9% yoy in July. A year earlier, the rate was only 3.0% yoy. CPI core (all item ex-energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) was finalized at 4.3%, up from prior month’s 4.0% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from energy (3.95%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.25%), services (1.62%) and non-energy industrial goods (1.33%).

                        EU CPI was finalized at 10.1%, up from 9.8% a month ago. The lowest annual rates were registered in France (6.6%), Malta (7.0%) and Finland (7.9%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (25.2%), Latvia (21.4%) and Lithuania (21.1%). Compared with July, annual inflation fell in twelve Member States and rose in fifteen.

                        Full release here.

                        UK retail sales volume dropped -1.6% mom in Aug, sales value also down -1.7% mom

                          UK retail sales volume dropped -1.6% mom, -5.4% yoy in August, worst than expectation of -0.6% mom, -4.2% yoy. Ex-fuel sales volume dropped -1.6% mom, -5.0% yoy, versus expectation of -0.7% mom, -3.4% yoy.

                          Retail sales value also dropped -1.7% mom while ex-fuel sales value dropped -1.4% mom. On a year earlier, headline sales value rose 5.4% yoy while ex-fuel sales value rose 3.7% yoy.

                          Full release here.

                          China data beat, but USD/CNH stays above 7

                            China industrial production rose 4.2% yoy in August, above expectation of 4.0% yoy. Retail sales rose 5.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.2% yoy. That’s the fastest pace since January-February period this year. Fixed asset investment rose 5.8% ytd yoy, above expectation of 5.6%.

                            “The economy held out against multiple unexpected headwinds in August and showed a positive recovery with the help of more additional supportive policies,” the NBS said in a statement. “The manufacturing needs are steady and rising, employment and prices are stable, most indices are better than last month.”

                            The set of better than expected data provided little support to the decline Yuan, with USD/CNH breaking through 7 psychological resistance this week. There is no sign of topping in the pair yet. USD/CNH is on track to 61.8% projection of 6.3057 to 6.8372 from 6.7159 at 7.0444. Firm break there will set the stage for pandemic high at 7.1961.

                            NZ BusinessNZ manufacturing rose to 54.9, improving tone around underlying growth

                              New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose slightly from 53.5 to 54.9 in August. Production rose from 50.8 to 54.6. Employment rose from 52.9 to 53.6. New orders rose from 50.8 to 59.2. Finished stocks rose from 48.7 to 50.8. Deliveries rose from 50.1 to 53.7.

                              BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert stated ” that manufacturing production, in general, was holding its own in Q2, rather than drooping, was portrayed in the PMI readings for April May and June. And in July and August the PMI has moved on to suggest an improving tone around underlying growth.”

                              Full release here.

                              RBA Lowe: Rate at 2.35% is still too low

                                RBA Governor Philip Lowe told the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, interest rate at 2.35% is “still too low”. He added that over the longer term, the cash rate “should at least average the mid point of the inflation target”, which is 2.5%, if not a bit higher. Also, an average interest rate of about 3% was “possible”, and we’ll cycle around some number between 2.5 and 3.5.”

                                Lowe also warned that the longer inflation stays above 3%, “the more difficult it’s going to become” for Australians. If that. happens “then we have higher interest rates and a recession, which is damaging. “So we’ve got two difficult kind of positions at the moment: some pain now and hopefully real wages start rising again next year against the risk of not doing anything, just sitting on our hands and having inflation stay higher.”

                                US initial jobless claims dropped to 213k

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped -5k to 213k in the week ending September 10, below expectation of 227k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -8k to 224k.

                                  Continuing claims rose 2k to 1403k in the week ending September 3. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -7.75k to 1413k.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US retail sales rose 0.3% mom in Aug, ex-auto sales down -0.3% mom

                                    US retail sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 683.3B in August, above expectation of 0.0% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.0% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.8% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom.

                                    Comparing with a year ago, total sales rose 9.1% yoy. Total sales for June through August were up 9.3% from the same period a year ago.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone exports rose 13.3% yoy in Jul, imports surged 44.0% yoy

                                      Eurozone exports of goods rose 13.3% yoy to EUR 235.5B in July. Imports rose 44.0% yoy to EUR 269.5B. Trade deficit with the rest of the world came in at EUR -34B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 24.0% yoy to EUR 224.8B.

                                      In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports dropped -1.7% mom to EUR 236.7B. Imports rose 1.5% mom to EUR 277.0B. Trade deficit widened to EUR -40.3B, larger than expectation of EUR -32.5B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 225.1B to EUR 229.3B.

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB de Guindos: Determined action essential to keep inflation expectations anchored

                                        ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said in a speech, “monetary policy needs to be focused on price stability and on delivering our inflation target over the medium term. Determined action is essential to keep inflation expectations anchored, which in itself contributes to delivering price stability and avoids second-round effects in inflation. The main asset that central banks have is credibility, and this asset becomes even more important in times of high uncertainty.”

                                        On the economy, de Guindos said, “A period of heightened uncertainty is here to stay for a while, rendering decision-making more complex. Output growth is slowing down substantially and is expected to stagnate around year-end and remain low next year at less than 1%, while risks have intensified on the downside. This is set against a deteriorating inflation outlook with record-high inflation rates expected to stay elevated, well above our target, with risks primarily on the upside.”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        Japan reports record monthly trade deficit, on record increase in imports

                                          Japan exports rose 22.1% yoy to JPY 8062B in August, driven by shipments of auto and chip-related equipment. Imports rose 49.9% yoy to JPY 10879B. That’s the largest increase by value on record, since data became available back in 1979. The rise was driven by higher prices for energy including crude oil, coal, and LNG.

                                          Trade deficit came in at JPY -2817B. That’s the largest monthly trade deficit on record. That’s also the 13th straight month of year-on-year trade shortfalls.

                                          In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -0.7% mom to JPY 8379B. Imports rose 1.5% to JPY 10750B. Trade deficit came in at JPY -2371B.