Fed Evans agrees to get to the peak funds rate by March

    Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told CNBC, “There are lags in monetary policy and we have moved expeditiously. We have done three 75 basis point increases in a row and there is a talk of more to get to that 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year, you’re not leaving much time to sort of look at each monthly release. ”

    “I still believe that our consensus, the median forecasts, are to get to the peak funds rate by March — assuming there are no further adverse shocks. And if things get better, we could perhaps do less, but I think we are headed for that peak funds rate,” Evans said.

    “That offers a path for employment, you know, stabilizing at something that still is not a recession, but there could be shocks, there could be other difficulties,” he added.

    World Bank cut China growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2022

      For 2022, the World Bank downgraded China’s growth forecasts sharply from 5.0% (April’s) to just 2.8%. On the other hand, ASEAN-5 growth forecasts was upgraded from 4.9% to 5.4%. East Asia & Pacific (excluding China) growth was upgraded from 4.8% to 5.3%. However, East Asia & Pacific as a whole was down graded from 5.0% to 3.2%,

      The World Bank said in the release: “Growth in much of East Asia and the Pacific has been driven by recovery in domestic demand, enabled by a relaxation of COVID-related restrictions, and growth in exports. China, which constitutes around 86% of the region’s output, uses targeted public health measures to contain outbreaks of the virus, inhibiting economic activity.”

      Full release here.

      Selloff in Yuan is still in force, with USD/CNH approaching 2020 high at 7.1961. There is so far no clear support for the Yuan at 7 psychological level. Break of 7.1961 will mark the highest level for the pair, lowest for offshore Yuan, since 2008. Technically, USD/CNH might top only after hitting 100% projection of 6.3057 to 6.8372 from 6.7159 at 7.2474.

      RBNZ Orr said tightening cycle very mature, AUD/NZD topping soon?

        RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr today, “We believe we still have some work to do, but the good news is because we’ve done so much already, the tightening cycle is very mature, it’s well advanced.”

        There’s s “a little bit more to do before we can drop to our normal happy place, which is to watch, worry and wait for signs of inflation up or down,” he said.

        AUD/NZD’s rally picks up some momentum recently on expectations that RBA is catching up with RBNZ on tightening. However, the cross is now pressing medium term channel resistance, and in proximity to 61.8% projection of 1.0314 to 1.1168 from 1.0987 at 1.1515. Overbought condition could finally limit upside. Break of 1.1303 will argue that it has turned into a corrective phase.

        Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1515 could prompt further upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.1841.

        SNB Maechler: More signs that price increases are spreading

          SNB board member Andrea Maechler said yesterday, “We have tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates to send a clear signal that we will do everything to bring down inflation over time.”

          “There are ever more signs that price increases are spreading to goods and services which have not been affected so far,” she said. “We are acting to make sure that inflation does not become entrenched.”

          On the question of further rate hike, she said, “I never speak of interest rate expectations. I can only say what the market expects, and it expects the SNB and other central banks to further increase their rates.”

          Fed Mester: Monetary policy needs to be in a restrictive stance

            Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said yesterday, “when there is uncertainty, it can be better for policymakers to act more aggressively because aggressive and pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcomes from actually coming about.”

            “Further increases in our policy rate will be needed,” Mester said. “In order to put inflation on a sustained downward trajectory to 2%, monetary policy will need to be in a restrictive stance, with real interest rates moving into positive territory and remaining there for some time.”

            “There will be some pain and bumps along the way as the growth in output and employment slow and the unemployment rate moves up,” Mester said. “But the current persistent high inflation is also very painful for many households and businesses. “

            Fed Bostic: UK growth plan adds uncertainty to the economy

              Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said market reaction to UK government’s new growth plan, with sharp volatility in Sterling, was a “real concern”. There’s “a fear that the new actions will add uncertainty to the economy.”

              The key question will be what does this mean for ultimately weakening the European economy, which is an important consideration for how the U.S. economy is going to perform,” he added.

              But for now, Bostic gave no indication on how Fed could respond to the development in the UK. “The more important thing is that we need to get inflation under control,” he said. “Until that happens, we’re going to see I think a lot of volatility in the marketplace in all directions.”

              BoE to assess the government’s growth plan at “next scheduled meeting”

                BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement that it’s “monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.

                He pointed to the UK government’s Growth Plan announced on Friday and he “welcome the Government’s commitment to sustainable economic growth”.

                The MPC will make a full assessment “at its next scheduled meeting” of the impact of the plan on demand and inflation, and the fall in Sterling, and “act” accordingly.

                Full statement here.

                Fed Collins: A more modest slowdown is achievable

                  Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “I do anticipate that accomplishing price stability will require slower employment growth and a somewhat higher unemployment rate.” But she added that “the goal of a more modest slowdown, while challenging, is achievable.”

                  “A significant economic or geopolitical event could push our economy into a recession as policy tightens further,” she warned. “Moreover, calibrating policy in these circumstances will be complicated by the fact that some effects of monetary policy work with a lag.”

                  ECB Lagarde expects to raise interest rates further over next several meetings

                    In the hearing of a European Parliament committee, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around two per cent. However, signs of recent above-target revisions to some indicators warrant continued monitoring.”

                    “The risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside, mainly reflecting the possibility of further major disruptions in energy supplies,” she said. “While these risk factors are the same for growth, their effect would be the opposite: they would increase inflation but reduce growth.”

                    “We expect to raise interest rates further over the next several meetings to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations… Our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach,” she said.

                    Full remarks here.

                    Germany Ifo dropped to 84.3, slipping into recession

                      Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped from 88.6 to 84.3 in September, below expectation of 87.1. That’s the lowest level since May 2020. Current Assessment index dropped form 97.5 to 94.5, below expectation of 96.0. Expectations index dropped from 80.3 to 75.2, below expectation of 78.6.

                      Ifo said: “Companies assessed their current business as clearly worse. Pessimism regarding the coming months has grown decidedly; in retail, expectations have fallen to a record low. The German economy is slipping into recession.”

                      By sector, manufacturing dropped from -6.8 to -14.2. Services dropped from 1.4 to -8.9. Trade dropped from -25.8 to -32.3. Construction dropped from -14.8 to -21.6.

                      Full release here.

                      ECB de Guindos sees significant slowdown in Q3 and Q4

                        ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a conference today, “we are seeing that in the third and fourth quarters there is a significant slowdown and we may find ourselves with growth rates close to zero.” He also noted that inflation in becoming increasingly broad and further rate hike will depend on incoming data.

                        Separately, Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said this months’ 75bps hike was “the right way to go”. “Inflation, if it’s persistently strong, has to be the clearly dominant goal,” he added. “Paying much attention to lower growth now, at the expense of fighting inflation, is often luring. But letting inflation become entrenched always has a higher cost than a temporary decline in GDP.”

                        BoJ Kuroda: It’s highly likely for economic recovery to continue

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that rapid currency moves were undesirable as they would have a negative impact on the economy. He added that intervention to address exchange volatility was the appropriate move.

                          Also, he pledged in a speech that BoJ will “continue with monetary easing so as to firmly support Japan’s economy from wage increases.”

                          Kuroda also noted, it’s “highly likely” for the economy to continue recovering following three factors. The first is improvement in exports, production, and business fixed investment. The second factor is solid private consumption. he third factor is that, with the government relaxing entry restrictions, inbound tourism demand is expected to recover. But he also pointed out risks from COVID-19, and developments in overseas economic activity and prices.

                          Japan FM Suzuki: Will take action against speculations on Yen if needed

                            Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government is “strongly concerned” about one-sided, rapid yen moves.

                            “We took appropriate action against excessive volatility driven by speculators. The intervention has had a certain effect,” he said, referring to last week’s intervention to support Yen. “There is no change in our stance that we will take (further) action if needed.”

                            “Governor Kuroda expressed Thursday in his remarks his strong concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen. We have a shared view on this with the BOJ,” Suzuki added.

                            Former top currency diplomat Naoyuki Shinohara, however, said, “it’s unlikely Japan will continue intervening to defend a certain line, such as 145 yen to the dollar… It’s impossible to reverse the market’s broad trend with intervention alone.” Shinohara oversaw Japan’s currency policy during the global financial crisis in 2008.

                            Japan PMI manufacturing dipped to 51.0, services rose to 51.9

                              Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 51.5 to 51.0 in September, below expectation of 51.1. That’s the lowest reading since January 2021. Manufacturing Output Index dropped from 49.2 to 48.9. PMI Services, on the other hand, rose from 49.5 to 51.9. PMI Composite rose from 49.4 to 50.9.

                              Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Business are reporting concerns around the economic outlook amid steep cost pressures and the rising likelihood of a global economic downturn. The remarkable weakness we’ve seen in the year-to-date in the yen continues to push up price pressures, with companies struggling to fully pass on these higher costs burdens to clients. Subsequently business confidence slumped to a 13-month low”.

                              Full release here.

                              Fed Bostic: Economy can slow in a relatively orderly way

                                Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program, “Inflation is high. It is too high. And we need to do all we can to make it come down.”

                                He added the US need to have a “slowdown”, but “we are going to do all that we can at the Federal Reserve to avoid deep, deep pain.”

                                “We’re still creating lots of jobs on a monthly basis, and so I actually think that there is some ability for the economy to absorb our actions and slow in a relatively orderly way,” he said.

                                Canada retail sales down -2.5% mom in Jul

                                  Canada retail sales dropped -2.5% mom to CAD 61.3B in July, worse than expectation of -2.0% mom. That’s also the first decline in seven months. Sales were down in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 94.5% of retail trade. The contraction was driven by lower sales at gasoline stations and clothing and clothing accessories stores. Excluding gasoline, and motor vehicle and parts, sales dropped -0.9%.

                                  Based on advance estimate, sales recovered by rising 0.4% mom in August.

                                  Full release here.

                                  UK PMI composite dropped to 48.4, economic woes deepened

                                    UK PMI manufacturing improved from 47.3 to 48.5 in September. But PMI services dropped from 50.9 to 49.2, a 20-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 49.6 to 48.4, a 20-month low.

                                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                    “UK economic woes deepened in September as falling business activity indicates that the economy is likely in recession. Companies report that the rising cost of living, linked to the energy crisis, and growing concerns about the outlook are subduing demand and hitting output levels to an extent not seen since 2009, barring the pandemic lockdowns and initial 2016 Brexit referendum shock.

                                    “Forward-looking indicators meanwhile deteriorated further in September. Both the new orders and future expectations gauges have descended to levels which have rarely been weaker in the past, and are consistent with a deepening downturn as we head into the fourth quarter.

                                    “Inflationary pressures continue to run higher than at any time in over two decades of survey history prior to the pandemic. Renewed supply constraints, soaring energy prices and rising import costs associated with the weakened pound are adding to cost pressures, meaning the overall rate of inflation signalled will remain of great concern to policymakers at the Bank of England. However, the detrimental impact of tightening policy into a recession is becoming increasingly apparent, with the downturn likely to intensify as we head into winter.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 48.2, recession on the cards

                                      Eurozone PMI manufacturing dropped from 49.6 to 48.5 in September, a 27-month low. PMI services dropped form 49.8 to 48.9, a 19-month low. PMI composite dropped from 48.9 to 48.2, a 20-month low.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “A eurozone recession is on the cards as companies report worsening business conditions and intensifying price pressures linked to soaring energy costs.

                                      “The early PMI readings indicate an economic contraction of 0.1% in the third quarter, with the rate of decline having accelerated through the three months to September to signal the worst economic performance since 2013, excluding pandemic lockdown months.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 27-mth low, services to 28-mth low

                                        Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped from 48.3 to 49.1 in September, a 27-month low. PMI Services dropped from 47.7 to 45.4, a 28-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 46.9 to 45.9, a 28-month low.

                                        Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                        “The German economy looks set to contract in the third quarter, and with PMI showing the downturn gathering in September and the survey’s forward-looking indicators also deteriorating, the prospects for the fourth quarter are not looking good either.

                                        “The deepening decline in business activity in September was led by the service sector, which has seen demand weaken rapidly as customers pull back on spending due tightening budgets and heightened uncertainty about the outlook.

                                        “Whilst constraints on manufacturing output from material shortages looked to have eased somewhat, resulting in a shallower decline production levels in September, goods producers like their service sector counterparts have nevertheless grown increasingly concerned about activity in the coming months, with the energy crisis stoking recession fears.

                                        “Just when it looked like underlying inflationary pressures might be easing, a fresh surge in energy prices has seen business input costs rise at a faster rate for the first time in five months, in turn leading to a renewed acceleration in average prices charged for goods and services.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        France PMI manufacturing dropped to 28-mth low, services improved

                                          France PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.6 to 47.8 in August, a 28-month low. PMI Services improved from 51.2 to 53.0. Overall, PMI Composite rose from 50.4 to 51.2.

                                          Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                          “The upward movement in the Composite Output PMI should not take away from the clear message seen across the survey as a whole – the French economy is struggling. Weakness is its most striking in the manufacturing sector, where the downturn accelerated in September as overstocked warehouses, rapidly deteriorating demand for goods, heightened economic uncertainty and intense price pressures drove production volumes lower.

                                          “Another worrying find from the latest survey was the pick-up in inflationary pressures, despite more evidence that supply stress is fading. According to surveyed firms, this reflected higher energy tariffs and wage bills. Energy security is a principal concern of companies as we head into the colder months across Europe.

                                          “The overall improvement in September was services-driven as a renewed increase in new business supported a slight pick-up in activity growth. Nevertheless, trends in output and new orders on the services side were still subdued by historical standards. Given the large degree of weakness we’re seeing in the manufacturing sector, it’s likely that we’ll see some of this spill over into services, thereby raising the risk of a recession in France.”

                                          Full release here.