UK PMI composite ticked up to 48.3, downturn will deepen into new year

    UK PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 46.2 in November. PMI services was also unchanged at 48.8. PMI Composite ticked up from 48.2 to 48.3.

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

    “A further steep fall in business activity in November adds to growing signs that the UK is in recession, with GDP likely to fall for a second consecutive quarter in the closing months of 2022.

    “If pandemic lockdown months are excluded, the PMI for the fourth quarter so far is signalling the steepest economic contraction since the height of the global financial crisis in the first quarter of 2009, consistent with the economy contracting at a quarterly rate of 0.4%. ”

    Forward-looking indicators, notably an increasingly steep drop in demand for goods and services, suggest the downturn will deepen as we head into the new year.”

    Full release here.

    Eurozone PMI composite ticked up to 47.8, consistent with -0.2% GDP contraction in Q4

      Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose from 46.4 to 47.3 in November. PMI Services was unchanged at 48.6. PMI Composite rose from 47.3 to 47.8.

      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

      “A further fall in business activity in November adds to the chances of the eurozone economy slipping into recession. So far, the data for the fourth quarter are consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of just over 0.2%.

      “However, the November PMI data also bring some tentative good news. In particular, the overall rate of decline has eased compared to October. Most encouragingly, supply constraints are showing signs of easing, with supplier performance even improving in the region’s manufacturing heartland of Germany. Warm weather has also allayed some of the fears over energy shortages in the winter months.

      “Price pressures, the recent surge of which has prompted further policy tightening from the ECB, are also now showing signs of cooling, most noticeably in the manufacturing sector. Not only should this help contain the cost of living crisis to some extent, but the brighter inflation outlook should take some pressure off the need for further aggressive policy tightening.

      “However, it’s clear that manufacturing remains in a worryingly severe downturn, and service sector activity is also still under intense pressure, both largely as a result of the cost of living crisis and recent tightening of financial conditions. A recession therefore looks likely, though the latest data provide hope that the scale of the downturn may not be as severe as previously feared.”

      Full release here.

      Germany PMI composite rose to 46.6, contraction maybe shallower than first feared

        Germany PMI Manufacturing improved from 45.1 o 46.7 in November. PMI Services dropped from 46.5 to 46.4. PMI Composite also recovered slightly from 45.1 to 46.4.

        Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

        “November’s flash PMI survey doesn’t alter the narrative that Germany is likely heading for a recession, but it does offer some hope that the contraction in the economy will perhaps be shallower than first feared. The headline PMI surprised on the upside, coming in above consensus at 46.4 and signalling the slowest rate of decline in business activity for three months.

        “Positively, data showed a reduction in the downward pressure on factory production, as manufacturers reported an improvement in material availability and an overall shortening of supplier delivery times for the first time in almost two-and-a-half years.

        “Not to get too carried away, however, underlying demand continues to weaken rapidly, linked to sharp price increases and hesitancy among customers, with the downturn in service sector new business even gathering pace to the quickest since May 2020.”

        Full release here.

        France PMI composite dropped to 48.8, vital support from services ended

          France PMI Manufacturing improved from 47.2 to 49.1 in November. But PMI Services dropped from 51.7 to 49.4, a 20-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 50.2 to 48.8, a 21-month low.

          Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

          “Although France’s manufacturing sector has been in a downturn since the start of the second half of 2022, overall economic activity levels throughout this period had been propped up by continued growth in services. This vital support for the economy looks to have ended as service sector output fell for the first time in just over a year-and-a-half in November. As a consequence, ‘flash’ PMI data pointed to the first reduction in French economic activity since February 2021.

          Full release here.

          AUD/NZD extending decline after RBNZ

            AUD/NZD is extending the decline from 1.1489 after RBNZ’s rate hike today. For the near term, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1043 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

            In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 0.9992 (2020 low) should have completed with three waves up to 1.1489. Current down side momentum argues that fall from 1.1489 is an impulsive move. But at this point, it’s viewed as a leg inside the long term sideway pattern that started in 2015. Even in such case, AUD/NZD would try to hit 61.8% retracement of 0.9992 to 1.1489 at 1.0560 before forming a bottoming.

            Australia PMI composite dropped to 47.7, deteriorating demand and worsening price pressures

              Australia PMI Manufacturing dropped from 52.7 to 51.5 in November, a 29-month low. PMI Services dropped from 49.3 to 47.2, a 10-month low. PMI Composite also dropped from 49.8 to 47.7, a 10-month low.

              Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

              “The latest S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI data revealed that the private sector economy further contracted midway into the fourth quarter, faced with deteriorating demand conditions. In particular, the service sector continued to be affected by higher interest rates and capacity constraints, leading to a sharper fall in business activity.

              “That said, with price inflation further climbing in November, the pressure remains on the central bank to keep tightening monetary policy to rein in prices. This is also amid indications of solid employment growth from the PMI data.

              “The mix of deteriorating demand and worsening price pressures does not bode well for the near-term outlook, and this has also been reinforced by the decline in private sector confidence in November.”

              Full release here.

              RBNZ hikes 75bps to 4.25%, tightening not finished

                RBNZ raises the Official Cash Rate by a record 75bps to 4.25% as widely expected. The central bank maintained that “monetary conditions needed to continue to tighten further, so as to be confident there is sufficient restraint on spending to bring inflation back within its 1-3 percent per annum target range.”

                During the meeting, increases of 50, 75 and 100bps were considered. But members agreed that “a larger increase in the OCR was appropriate, given the resilience of domestic spending, and the higher and more persistent actual and expected inflation outcomes.”

                But on the “balances of risks”, a 75bps hike was “appropriate at this meeting”. Members highlights that “the cumulative tightening of monetary conditions delivered to date continues to pass through to the economy via the lagged transmission to effective retail interest rates.”

                In the new forecasts, annual inflation is projected to rise further to 7.5% in Q4 and Q1, then stay above 5% throughout 2023. Inflation would then slowly drop back to 2.9% in Q3, 2024. Quarterly GDP is projected to contract from Q2 2023 to Q1 2024, turn flat in Q2 and Q3 2024, before returning to slight growth. OCR will continue to rise and peak at 5.5% in Q3 2023, before turning down in second half of 2024.

                Full statement here.

                ECB Simkus: 50bps a must for Dec, 75 also possible

                  ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said, “it’s clear that 50 basis points is a must” for December meeting. He added, “because we still see very strong inflation pressures and we need to dampen them as soon as possible to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations.” Yet, “75 is also possible.”

                  ECB will also discussing shrinking the assets purchased with the stimulus program, also known as quantitative tightening. “The sooner we start quantitative tightening, the better,” he said. “But in smaller steps, so that it can run somewhere in the background.”

                  Canada retail sales dropped -0.5% mom in Sep, down -1.0% qoq in Q3

                    Canada retail sales dropped -0.5% mom to CAD 61.1B in September. Sales declined in 7 of 11 subsectors, led by sales at gasoline stations (-2.4%) and food and beverage stores (-1.3%). Excluding gasoline and auto, sales contracted -0.4%mom. IN volume terms retail sales also declined -0.1% mom.

                    For Q3, sales were down -1.0% qoq, the first quarterly decline since Q2 of 2020. In volume terms, sales were down -1.4% qoq in Q3.

                    According to advance estimate, sales rose 1.5% mom in October.

                    Full release here.

                    RBA Lowe not ruling out return to 50bps hike, nor pausing

                      RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated in a speech that the Board expects to “interest rates further over the period ahead”, and interest rate is “not on a pre-set path”.

                      “We have not ruled out returning to 50 basis point increases if that is necessary,” he said. “Nor have we ruled out keeping rates unchanged for a time as we assess the state of the economy and the outlook for inflation.”

                      “As we take our decisions over coming meetings, we will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, the evolution of household spending and wage and price setting behaviour.”

                      “Developments in each of these three areas will affect the pace at which inflation returns to target and whether the economy can remain on an even keel over the next couple of years.”

                      Full speech here.

                      ECB Holzmann backs another 75bps hike to give a strong signal about determination

                        ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann told FT in an interview, that he could “see no signs that core inflation is reducing” . He added that another big rate hike “would give a strong signal about our determination,” as “it would tell businesses and trade unions we are serious so don’t underestimate us, be careful.”

                        He backs another 75bps rate hike in December but he was still “open to changing my mind” based on the ECB’s new quarterly economic forecasts. He added that interest rates could need to rise to a level where they “caused pain”. Hence, it’s important to hike “early” because “afterwards the pain is much, much larger.”

                        NZ goods exports rose 14% yoy in Oct, imports surged 24% yoy

                          New Zealand goods exports rose 14% yoy to NZD 6.1B in October. Goods imports rose 24% yoy to NZD 8.3B. Trade deficit widened from NZD -1.7B to NZD -2.1B, much larger than expectation of NZD -1.7B.

                          Annual goods expects, comparing with the year ended October 2021, rose 14% to NZD 71.1B. Annual goods imports rose 25% to NZD 84.0B. Annual trade deficit swelled to fresh record of NZD -12.9B, comparing to NZD -4.9B a year ago.

                          Full release here.

                          Fed Mester: Makes sense that we can slow down a bit

                            Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said yesterday, “we’re at a point where we’re going to enter a restrictive stance of policy. At that point, I think it makes sense that we can slow down a bit the … pace of increases.”

                            “We’re still going to raise the funds rate, but we’re at a reasonable point now where we can be very deliberate in setting monetary policy,” she added.

                            “I think we can slow down from the 75 at the next meeting. I don’t have a problem with that, I do think that’s very appropriate,” Mester said. “But I do think we’re going to have to let the economy tell us going forward what pace we have to be at.”

                            “Right now my forecast is that we’re going to see some real, good progress on inflation next year,” Mester said. “We won’t be back to 2%, but we’ll see some meaningful progress next year. But if we don’t see that, then we’re going to have to make sure our policy really reacts to the incoming information. So I can’t tell you today what the path going forward will be.”

                            Fed Daly: Premature to take anything off the table

                              San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said yesterday that “it’s premature in my mind to take anything off the table”, regarding the size of rate hike in December. She added. “I’m going into the meeting with the full range of adjustments that we could make on the table.

                              Daly also said recent CPI data was “way too early to cause a turning point on inflation… One month does not a victory make. It doesn’t give me comfort. We will need more good months of data before call this a turning point.”

                              “As we work to bring policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance — the level required to bring inflation down and restore price stability — we will need to be mindful,” Daly also said. “Adjusting too little will leave inflation too high. Adjusting too much could lead to an unnecessarily painful downturn.”

                              ECB Centeno: Many conditions in place for less than 75bps hike

                                ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno was asked yesterday about whether the central bank should hike by less that 75bps in December. He said, “I think there are conditions in place — many conditions — for the increase to be less than that number”.

                                Centeno also noted that “rates in Europe continue to be roughly half those in the United States”, and that’s a good indicator of the difference between the economic fundamentals of the two regions. He also urged restraint in wage growth and company margins as that “could help the ECB a lot in combating inflation”.

                                WTI oil to break through 76.6 support as Saudi Arabia considers production increase

                                  Oil prices tumble again today on news that Saudi Arabia is eyeing OPEC+ production increase, partially reversing the group’s decision to cut supplies last month.

                                  WSJ reports that OPEC is now in discussion of an increase of up to 500k barrels a day, for December 4 meeting. The move would come just a day before EU imposes an embargo on Russian oil, while G7 will launch a price cap.

                                  Technically, WTI is now on track to retest 76.61 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 124.12 to 76.61 from 94.25 at 64.88. Meanwhile, break of 82.03 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring recovery first.

                                  CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY recover as Yen weakens

                                    Yen trades broadly lower today following rebound in benchmark US and European yields. CAD/JPY is one of the top movers for the day. It’s possible that whole corrective pattern from 110.87 has completed with three waves down to 104.06. Break of 106.70 resistance, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA will affirm this case, and bring further rise to retest 110.33/110.87 resistance zone.

                                    AUD/JPY also rises mildly today but stays well below 95.73 resistance. Firm break there will affirm the case that pull back from 99.32 has completed at 90.81. Rise form 90.81 should then resume and target a test on 99.32 high.

                                    ECB: Lane: One platform for 75bps hike is no longer there

                                      ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an interview that “we expect to raise rates further”. But “each meeting is different” and “one platform for considering a very large hike, such as 75 basis points, is no longer there.”

                                      “When we were at zero, that did not correspond to anyone’s idea of the interest rate level necessary. Going to 1.5 per cent is still below where we need to go,” he said. “But the more you’ve already done on a cumulative basis, that changes the pros and cons of any given increment.”

                                      “I don’t think December is going to be the last rate hike” he said. “Trying to jump forward to February, to March, to May or June next year, I think it’s too early to have very strong views at this point… The more relevant argument than whether to pause is to move at the appropriate time to smaller increments.”

                                      Full interview here.

                                      Bitcoin down again, ready for 2019 levels?

                                        Both Bitcoin is some selling pressure and looks heading back to this month’s low. Negative news for cryptocurrencies are neverending, with reports that giant Digital Currency Group could be in trouble after its crypto lender Genesis was forced to pause withdrawals. The earlier collapse of FTSE was put to blame.

                                        Technically, Bitcoin’s consolidation pattern from 15541 might have completed. Break of this low will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 25198 to 18144 from 21460 at 14406, or even further to 2019 high at 13855. Break of 17134 resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the consolidations first.

                                        Fed Bostic: 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening warranted

                                          Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Saturday, “If the economy proceeds as I expect, I believe that 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening will be warranted… It’s clear that more is needed, and I believe this level of the policy rate will be sufficient to rein in inflation over a reasonable time horizon.”

                                          “In terms of pacing, assuming the economy evolves as I expect in the coming weeks, I would be comfortable starting the move away from 75-basis-point increases at the next meeting,” he added.

                                          Bostic expected Fed to pause at some point to “let the economic dynamics play out,” given that it may take 12-24 months for the effect of rate hikes to be “fully realized.”

                                          “I do not think we should continue raising rates until the inflation level has gotten down to 2%. Because of the lag dynamics I discussed earlier, this would guarantee an overshoot and a deep recession,” he said.