Fri, Sep 27, 2024 @ 23:26 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 159

Live Comments

Latest

Swiss CPI unchanged at 3.0% yoy in Nov

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Swiss CPI was unchanged at 3.0% yoy in November, above expectation of 2.6% yoy. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) rose from 1.8% yoy to 1.9% yoy. Domestic product inflation rose from 1.7% yoy to 1.7% yoy. But Imported product inflation slowed from 6.9% yoy to 6.3% yoy.

    FSO said: “The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that offset each other overall. Prices for housing rentals, gas and fuels increased, as did those for foreign and Swiss red wine. In contrast, prices for heating oil, fruiting vegetables and hotel accommodation decreased.”

    Also released, retail sales dropped -2.5% yoy in October, worse than expectation of 3.3% yoy rise.

    Full CPI release here.

    China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose to 49.4 in Nov, pandemic continued to take a toll

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 49.4 in November, above expectation of 48.6. Caixin said that Covid-19 restrictions continued to constrain output. New orders fell, albeit at softest rate in four months. Supply chain delays worsened.

      Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Overall, the pandemic continued to take a toll on the economy. Output contracted, total demand was under pressure, overseas demand remained weak, employment deteriorated, logistics was sluggish, and manufacturers faced growing operating pressure. As the measure for suppliers’ delivery times is negatively correlated to the PMI, the fall in the measure partially offset the drop in the PMI, leading the decline in November manufacturing activity to be underestimated.”

      Full release here.

      BoJ Noguchi: Must maintain monetary easing

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said the central bank must continue to maintain monetary easing, keep interest rates at low levels now as achievement of 2% inflation target remains uncertain.

        “While not as much as other countries, Japan’s consumer prices have risen sharply. This increase is driven mostly by rising imported goods prices,” he said. “What’s more important in deciding monetary policy is trend inflation based on domestic macro-economic factors, which remains at low levels.”

        Inflation is likely to fall back below 2% once these cost-push factors dissipate.

        Fed Powell: Makes Sense to start slowing, as soon as in Dec

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated in a speech that it “makes sense” to start slowing the pace of tightening as soon as in December. But, the level of the terminal rate, and the time to stay there are now more significant than when to start slowing down.

          “Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt,” Powell said. “Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting,” he added.

          But Powell also indicated, “the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.”

          Full remarks here.

          US ADP employment grew 127k, Fed tightening having impact

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            US ADP private employment grew 127k in November, below expectation of 195k. By sector, goods- producing jobs dropped -86k. Service-providing jobs rose 213k. By establishment size, small companies lost -51k jobs. Medium companies added 246k. Large companies lost -68k.

            Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains. In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.

            Full release here.

            BoE Pill expects headline inflation to tail off in 2nd half of next year quite rapidly

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said at a conference, “we are expecting to see headline inflation tail off in the second half of next year, in fact quite rapidly, on account of those base effects.” But, “there’s a lot of uncertainty around the outlook for gas price developments,” he added.

              “Very low levels of unemployment and the association with the mid-1970s is not entirely reassuring from an inflection point of view,” Pill said. “People in the 50 to 65 age group, relative to pre-COVID levels, are having a higher level of inactivity not being in a job and not looking for work.”

              Eurozone CPI slowed to 10% yoy in Nov

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Eurozone CPI slowed from 10.6% yoy to 10.0% yoy in November, below expectation of 10.4% yoy. CPI ex-energy rose from 6.9% yoy to 7.0% yoy. CPI ex-energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 5.0% yoy.

                Looking at the main components, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (34.9%, compared with 41.5% in October), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (13.6%, compared with 13.1% in October), non-energy industrial goods (6.1%, stable compared with October) and services (4.2%, compared with 4.3% in October).

                Full release here.

                Swiss KOF dropped to 89.5, economic outlook remains subdued

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 90.9 to 89.5 in November, matched expectations. KOF said, “This is the fifth time in a row that the barometer has fallen. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains subdued in the coming months.”

                  KOF added: “The negative development of the barometer is primarily driven by indicator bundles for the sector other services. Indicators for the accommodation and food service activities sector and private consumption are also weakening. In contrast, indicator bundles covering foreign demand record a slight positive development.”

                  Full release here.

                  France household consumption dropped sharply by -2.8% yoy in Oct

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    France household consumption dropped sharply by -2.8% mom in October, much worse than expectation of -0.9% mom. That’s also the largest decline since April 2021, primarily due to the sharp drop in energy consumption (-7.9%), but also stems from the decline in purchases of manufactured goods (-1.7%) and in food consumption (-1.4%).

                    All item CPI was unchanged at 6.2% yoy in November. Food price accelerated from1 2.0% yoy to 12.2% yoy. Energy prices slowed from 19.1% yoy to 18.5% yoy. Manufacturing products rose from 4.2 yoy to 4.4% yoy while services dropped from 3.1% yoy to 3.0% yoy.

                    Q3 GDP grew 0.2% qoq, unrevised.

                    China PMI manufacturing dropped to 48.0, non-manufacturing down to 46.7

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      China NBS PMI Manufacturing dropped from 49.2 to 48.0 in November, below expectation of 49.2. PMI Non-Manufacturing dropped from 48.7 to 46.7, below expectation of 48.0. Both readings were the lowest in seven months.

                      “In November, impacted by multiple factors including the wide and frequent spread of domestic outbreaks, and the international environment becoming more complex and severe, China’s purchasing managers’ index fell,” NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement.

                      Zhao said domestic outbreaks in November caused “production activity to slow down and product orders to fall”, noting “increased fluctuation in market expectations”.

                      Australia monthly CPI slowed to 6.9% yoy in Oct, food inflation eased

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Australia monthly CPI slowed from 7.3% yoy to 6.9% yoy in October. The most significant contributors to the annual rise were new dwellings (+20.4%), automotive fuel (+11.8%) and fruit and vegetables (+9.4%).

                        “High levels of building construction activity and ongoing shortages of labour and materials contributed to the rise in new dwellings” Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics said.

                        Automotive fuel prices accelerated from 10.1% to 11.8% as the government’s temporary cut to the fuel excise ended on September 29. Annually, prices for fruit and vegetables rose by 9.4%, down from 17.4% in September.

                        Full release here.

                        NZ ANZ business confidence dropped to -57.1, strain showing for businesses

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped from -42.7 to -57.1 in November. Looking at some details, own activity outlook dropped from -2.5 to -13.7, just 8 pts shy of 2009 lows. Export intentions dropped from -4.3 to -5.4. Investment intentions dropped from 1.1 to -8.1. Employment intentions dropped from 5.0 to -4.0. Pricing intentions dropped from 64.5 to 58.5. Cost expectations ticked up from 88.6 to 88.7. Inflation expectations rose from 6.13 to 6.39.

                          ANZ said, “The strain is showing for kiwi businesses. Cost increases remain relentless and margins are squeezed, firms are chronically understaffed, and they’re waiting for the hammer to fall as the impact of relentless monetary policy tightening eventually kicks in. There are a lot of dark clouds on the horizon, and this month’s survey reflects that.”

                          Full release here.

                          Japan industrial production dropped -2.6% mom in Oct, but bounce back expected

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Japan industrial production dropped -2.6% mom in October, worse than expectation of -1.8% mom.

                            The seasonally adjusted production index for the manufacturing and mining sectors stood at 95.9 against 100 for the base year of 2015. The shipment index stood at 94.1, down -1.1%, and the inventory index at 103.0, down -0.8%.

                            The Ministry of Trade, Economy and Industry expects production to rise 3.3% in November and then 2.4% in December.

                            METI cut its assessment of industrial output for the first time in five months, saying “production is gradually picking up, but some weaknesses are observed.”

                            US consumer confidence dropped to 100.2, most likely prompted by recent rise in gas prices

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, slightly above 100.0. Present Situation Index dropped from 138.7 to 137.4. Expectations index dropped from 77.9 to 75.4.

                              “Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.”

                              “Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.”

                              Full release here.

                              BoE Mann: Medium-term inflation expectation important for next rate vote

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                BoE MPC member Catherine Mann said at an online event, “looking at medium-term expectations is a very important ingredient to my assessment of what the appropriate Bank Rate at the next vote might be.”

                                “Once inflation expectations have been managed, the bank rate can come off a future peak,” she added. At the same time, foreign exchange rate is also an “important ingredient” for inflation in the UK.

                                Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in Sep, to be unchanged in Oct

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Canada GDP rose 0.1% mom in September, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Goods-producing industries grew 0.3% while services-producing industries were essentially unchanged.

                                  Advance information indicates that real GDP was unchanged in October. Increases in the public, transportation and warehousing, construction and wholesale trade sectors were offset by decreases in the manufacturing and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sectors.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 93.7 in Nov, first increase since Feb

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 92.7 to 93.7 in November, the first increase since February. Industrial confidence dropped from -1.2 to -2.0. Services confidence rose from 2.1 to 2.3. Consumer confidence rose from -27.5 to -23.9. Retail trade confidence was unchanged at -6.7. Construction confidence dropped from 2.6 to 2.3. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 105.4 to 107.4. Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 30.7 to 28.4.

                                    EU ESI rose from 91.2 to 92.2. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI increased strongly in Italy (+4.1) and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands (+1.2) and Germany (+1.1), while it eased in Spain (-1.7) and France (-1.6). Sentiment in Poland stayed broadly flat (+0.3). EEI rose from 104.9 to 106.3. EUI dropped from 29.8 to 27.8.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Swiss GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Swiss GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3, matched expectations. Looking at some details, manufacturing contracted -0.2%. Construction dropped -2.2%. Finance and insurance dropped -2.1%. But trade expanded 2.3% while accommodation and food rose 2.8%.

                                      By expenditure approach, private consumption grew 0.7%. Equipment and software investment rose 2.1%. Exports excluding valuables rose 7.89%. But construction investment dropped -2.0%.

                                      Full release here.

                                      NZIER: RBNZ rate to peak at 5% next year

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        In the November Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ projected that interest rate would peak at 5.5% while the economy would start contracting in Q2 2023 until Q1 2024.

                                        NZIER said it expected the negative impact of higher interest rates on demand will “become more apparent around mid-2023”. With that, RBNZ “will not need to increase interest rates by as much as it currently expects to”.

                                        “Nonetheless, we expect further increases in the OCR and for it to peak at 5 percent over the coming year,” NZIER added.

                                        Full NZIER statement here.

                                        Fed Barkin supportive of slower, but probably longer and potentially high tightening

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in an interview yesterday, “I’m very supportive of a (tightening) path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before.”

                                          “It is helpful to be somewhat more cautious as you are in restrictive territory,” he said. “It is a better risk-management approach.”

                                          “Inflation has been stubborner than I would like,” he said. “As long as inflation stays elevated, that makes the case to me that we need to do more.”

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.