China CPI slowed to 1.6% yoy in Nov, core CPI down -0.6% yoy

    China CPI slowed from 2.1% yoy to 1.6% yoy in November, below expectation of 1.7% yoy. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was down -0.6% yoy, unchanged from October. Food prices slowed from 7.0% yoy to 3.7% yoy. Non-food prices were unchanged at 1.1% yoy.

    “In November, due to the domestic epidemic, seasonal factors, and a higher base of comparison in the same period last year, CPI turned from rising to falling month on month and fell back year on year,” said chief NBS statistician Dong Lijuan.

    PPI was unchanged at -1.3% yoy, above expectation of -1.5% yoy. “In November, PPI rose slightly month on month as a result of price increases in coal, oil and non-ferrous metals, and continued to fall year on year due to a high base of comparison from the same period last year,” added Dong.

    BoC Kozicki: We will be considering whether to increase rates further

      BoC Governor Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki said in speech yesterday, “going forward, we will be considering whether to increase rates further”.

      “By that, we mean that we expect our decisions will be more data-dependent,” she said. “If we are surprised on the upside, we are still prepared to be forceful. But we recognize that we have raised interest rates rapidly and that their effects are working their way through the economy.”

      “In other words, we are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates,” she added.

      Full speech here.

      US initial jobless claims rose to 230k, below expectations

        US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 230k in the week ending December 3, below expectation of 245k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 230k.

        Continuing claims rose 62k to 1671k in the week ending November 26. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 43k to 1582k.

        Full release here.

        Gold fails 1800 handle for now

          Gold’s rally halted after hitting 1809.80 earlier in the week, but failed to sustain above 1800 handle and turned into consolidations. Dollar’s recovery is capping Gold’s strength. Traders in the currency markets are generally cautious ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision, and more importantly, the new dot plot.

          Technically, Gold is feeling some support from 4 hour 55 EMA, which is a positive sign. Break of 1809.80 will resume the rise from 1616.51 to 61.8% projection of 1616.51 to 1786.83 from 1728.48 at 1833.73. However, sustained trading below 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1772.44) will at least bring deeper fall back to 1728.48 support for a test.

          Australia trade surplus little change at AUD 12.22B in Oct

            Australia exports of goods and services dropped -0.9% mom to AUD 60.01B in October. Imports dropped -0.7% mom to AUD 47.85B. Trade surplus narrowed slightly from AUD 12.44B to AUD 12.22B, slightly above expectation of AUD 12.10B.

            Looking at some details, the decline in exports was driven mainly by AUD -0.6B fall in gold while imports decline was driven by AUD -0.5B fall in energy. Fuel exports, dominated by LNG, rose AUD 0.3B to AUD 11.2B, and hit a new record high. Rural goods exports rose AUD 0.1B to AUD 7.2B, also a record high.

            Full release here.

            FBS Explains How Servers Affect Speed in Trading

              Every trader knows three pillars of productive trading: consistency in a daily routine, patience for a perfect trade, and the ability to learn from mistakes. However, speed is one more thing you should consider. Analysts from FBS, an online trading broker, explain why execution speed is crucial and how servers maintain it in trading.

              How does speed affect trading?

              Imagine you open the chart and see that your favorite asset is about to break the resistance line. If the breakout has already started, fast hands and constant focus are important, as well as the execution speed.

              Execution speed is the time between a broker receiving your order and an order execution itself. For example, the average amount of trades per month is 100. If the speed of order execution is too slow, one trade may open 5-10 points away from your initial entry point, which results in losing 100-500 points of profit monthly. For scalpers with an average of 5-20 trades per day, they could lose 100-200 points daily or 2000-4000 points monthly.

              Slow speed means slower order execution and, subsequently, a loss of potential profits. That’s how the execution speed directly affects your trading experience.

              How do servers achieve fast execution speed?

              Basically, you can trade with a slow execution speed. For instance, you can avoid trading during market volatility, as it can cause significant price changes, or use limit orders to set a specific price at which your order will be executed. However, volatility provides many trading opportunities, so the best way to ensure a faster execution speed is to choose a broker that uses reliable servers.

              As an international company, FBS works with Equinix, the Tier-1 Data Center company that provides infrastructure for digital operations, allowing a seamless connection between customers and products. The world’s largest companies like Google, Zoom, Oracle, and Netflix also work with Equinix, ensuring stable and reliable performance of their products and services.

              FBS uses Equinix LD4, a server located in one of the major financial centers in London. But how do they maintain fast order execution if the server is far from you?

              FBS uses decentralized data centers across the globe to process your transactions instantly. The locations of some of the FBS data centers are the following:

              • London
              • Singapore
              • New York
              • Nuremberg

              When you place an order, it goes to the closest data center and then to Equinix LD4. Furthermore, FBS liquidity providers also use the LD4 server, meaning there is a minimum delay between the order intake and its execution. An average delay between your click on Buy or Sell and the execution is less than 100 milliseconds, a market-leading speed.

              Conclusion

              When you choose a broker, don’t forget to research their technical performance. Slower servers may lead to unwanted profit losses, and that’s why FBS guarantees the highest execution speed with the Tier-1 Data Center. Open an account at FBS and explore its advantages.

              BoC hikes 50bps, will consider whether further increase needed

                BoC raises overnight rate by 50bps to 4.25%. The Bank Rate and deposit rate are increased to 4.50% and 4.25% respectively. Quantitative tightening will also continue.

                Most importantly BoC said it will now be “considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target”. The signals the possibility of a pause after today’s action.

                Regarding the economy, BoC said growth will “essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year”. Three-month rates of chance in core inflation “have come down”, as an “early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum”. But inflation is “still too high” and short term inflation expectations remain “elevated”.

                Full statement here.

                AUD/NZD extending decline, targets 1.0437

                  New Zealand Dollar is clearly overwhelming its Australia counter part recently. AUD/NZD’s decline continues on expectation of diverging central bank policy paths, even though tightening is expected to in the early part of next year. While RBNZ’s terminal rate might be 5.50%, 4.00% looks a bit stretch for RBA based on current outlook.

                  As for AUD/NZD, further decline is expected as long as 1.0657 minor resistance holds. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.1489 to 1.0883 from 1.1043 at 1.0437. Such development could retrain Aussie’s rebound elsewhere.

                  WTI oil hits new 2022 low as down trend resumes

                    WTI oil crude oil extends recent decline and hit the lowest level for the year. Today’s move is part of the selloff in reaction to OPEC+ decision to stick with their existing pace of production cut, rather then raising it. Overall risk sentiment is not helping while China’s easing of pandemic restrictions is largely ignore.

                    With 74.10 support broke, WTI is resuming whole down trend from 131.82. Further decline is now expected as long as 78.21 minor support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.12 to 76.61. from 94.25 at 64.88. Break of 78.21 will delay the bearish case, but risk will stays on the downside with 83.82 resistance intact.

                    CAD/JPY struggling at 100, eyes on BoC hike

                      BoC is widely expected to continue with tightening today. But opinion on the size of the rate hike is split, with odds slightly in favor to 50 than 25. The main question, though, is not about how much the hike is, but how BoC would indicate the path forward. That is, how close interest is to the terminal rate. This is what the statement would be scrutinized for.

                      Some suggested readings on BoC:

                      CAD/JPY’s decline halted last week after hitting 99.46, but it’s just struggling around 100 handle, with no momentum for a solid rebound. For now, deeper fall is expected as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 101.88) holds. Break of 99.46 will resume the decline from 110.87 as a long term correction. CAD/JPY should have a take on 38.2% retracement of 73.80 to 110.87 at 96.70 before forming a bottom.

                      Australia AiG services fell to 45.6, deepening contraction

                        Australia AiG Performance of Services dropped -2.1 pts to 45.6 in November, signaling contraction for a third month. Sales rose 1.5 to 42.8. Employment dropped -6.1 to 47.8. New orders dropped -4.8 to 49.7. Input prices dropped -3.6 to 74.0. Selling prices rose 2.2 to 64.4. Average wages rose 3.8 to 68.6.

                        Innes Willox, Chief Executive of the national employer association Ai Group, said: “The deteriorating economic outlook is clearly weighing on Australia’s services sector. The Australian PSI indicated a deepening contraction in the services sector, with three months of declining results. Steep falls in indicators for employment and new orders in November reveal weakening demand for services, while ongoing labour shortages continue to constrain the supply side.”

                        Full release here.

                        Australia GDP grew 0.6% qoq in Q3, terms of trade deteriorated

                          Australia GDP grew 0.6% qoq in Q3, below expectation of 0.7% qoq. Household spending rose 1.1%, contributing 0.6% to GDP. Compensation of employees increased 3.2%, the strongest rise since December quarter 2006. Net trade detracted -0.2% from GDP, with a 2.7% increase in exports offset by a 3.9% rise in imports. The terms of trade fell -6.6%, the largest fall since June quarter 2009, as import prices increased and export prices fell.

                          Full release here.

                          BoJ Nakamura: Inflation not accompanied by wage increases yet

                            BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura said, “recent price rises aren’t accompanied by wage increases yet”. He added that Japan is far from the situation where wage inflation spiral becomes a concern. The central bank needs to continue with ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being.

                            “Tightening monetary policy at a time when demand continues to remain lower than supply would put huge pressure on corporate and household activity,” he warned.

                            He expects inflation to slow next year as energy and food price rises fade.

                            US trade deficit widened to USD -78.2B in Oct

                              US exports of goods and services dropped USD 1.9B over the month in October, while imports rose USD 2.2B. Trade deficit widened from USD -74.1B to USD -78.2B, smaller than expectation of USD -79.4B.

                              The increased in goods and services trade deficit reflected an increased in goods deficit of USD 6.1B to USD -99.6B, and increased in services surplus of USD 2.1B to USD 21.4B.

                              Full release here.

                              ECB Herodotou: There will be another hike or hikes

                                ECB Governing Council member Constantinos Herodotou said, “We are very near the neutral rate. There will be I think another hike or hikes.”

                                “There are a number of variables that may give some comfort and should there be an economic impact, it won’t be.. a hard landing” he said, pointing to fiscal support and the robust jobs market.

                                ECB Lane reasonably confidence EZ close to peak inflation

                                  ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an interview, “I would be reasonably confident in saying that it is likely we are close to peak inflation”. But it’s still uncertain whether inflation has peaked or it will arrive at the start of 2023. He didn’t rule out some extra inflation early next year. But, “once we are past the initial months of 2023, later on in 2023 – in the spring or summer – we should see a sizeable drop in the inflation rate.” Still, the journey back to 2% will “take time”.

                                  “We need to recognise that the interest rate decisions we have already made will help to reduce the inflation rate next year and the year after that,” he said. “We do expect that more rate increases will be necessary, but a lot has been done already, so we will have to ensure we have a good understanding of the inflation outlook, and the risk factors when setting the interest rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis.”

                                  Lane also said, “QT should essentially be a background programme”. That is, policymakers will ensure QT makes its contribution to policy normalization in “a way that reinforces the primary instrument, which is setting rates”.

                                  Full interview here.

                                  RBA hikes 25bps, expects to increase interest rates further

                                    RBA raises cash rate by 25bps to 3.10% as widely expected. Tightening bias is maintained as “the Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead”, even though it’s “not on a pre-set course”. The size and timing of future rate hikes will continue to be determined by incoming data and the outlook for inflation and job market. The path to slow inflation and achieve a soft landing remains a “narrow one”.

                                    The central bank expects inflation to peak at around 8% in Q4, and then decline next year due to “ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and slower growth in demand”. Medium-term inflation expectations “remain well anchored”. Inflation is expected to decline to “a little over 3 per cent over 2024”.

                                    RBA also expects growth to “moderate over the year ahead” to 1.50% in 2023 and 2024. Labor market remains “very tight” but employment growth has slowed. Wages growth is “continuing to pick up”. “Given the importance of avoiding a prices-wages spiral, the Board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead.”

                                    Full statement here.

                                    BoJ Kuroda: Premature to discuss specifics of monetary policy framework

                                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament, “the BOJ is seeking to sustainably and stably achieve its 2% inflation target accompanied by wage growth. Our view is that this will likely take more time.”

                                      “It’s therefore premature to discuss specifics about our monetary policy framework,” he said.

                                      “We’ll maintain our current monetary policy to make it easier for companies to raise wages,” he added.

                                      US ISM services rose to 56.5 in Nov, production surged

                                        US ISM Services PMI rose from 54.4 to 56.5 in November, above expectation of 53.5. Looking at some details, business activity/production surged sharply from 55.7 to 64.7. New orders dropped slightly form 56.5 to 56.0. Employment rose from 49.1 to 51.5. Prices dropped from 70.7 to 70.0.

                                        ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for November (56.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        ECB Makhlouf: Premature to be talking about end-point for policy rates

                                          ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, “To continue on our path to bring inflation back to our 2% target, I see a 50 basis-point increase in interest rates as the minimum needed at our December meeting.”

                                          “We have to be open to policy rates moving into restrictive territory for a period,” the Irish central-bank chief said. “It is premature to be talking about the end-point for policy rates amid the prevailing levels of uncertainty.”

                                          “The justification for the expansion of the balance sheet – too low inflation and the risk of deflation – has ended, and it is time to look at reducing its size,” he said.