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US ADP jobs grew 2369k in Jun, May revised up to 3065k increase

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    US ADP employment report showed 2369k growth in private sector jobs in June, below expectation of 3000k. Nevertheless, May’s figure was revised sharply higher from -2760k loss to 3065k growth. By company size, small businesses added 937k jobs, medium businesses added 559k, large businesses added 873k. Goods-producing sector added 457k jobs while service-providing sector grew 1912k.

    “Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses. In fact, 70 percent of the jobs added this month were in the leisure and hospitality, trade and construction industries.”

    Full release here.

    UK PM May, armed with fresh mandate, to go back to EU with pragmatic Brexit solution

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      UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she is seeking a “pragmatic solution” for the Brexit withdrawal agreement. She wrote in The Sunday Telegraph that ” with changes to the Northern Ireland backstop, they would support the deal that I agreed with Brussels to take us out of the EU”. And, “when I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree a pragmatic solution that delivers the Brexit the British people voted for.”

      May’s office also said that the government is establishing an “Alternative Arrangements Working Group” to work on alternative arrangement to the Irish border backstop arrangement. Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay will lead the group involving pro-Brexit lawmakers Steve Baker, Marcus Fysh and Owen Paterson, as well as pro-EU Conservatives Damian Green and Nicky Morgan. The first meeting will start today.

      Trade Minister Liam Fox said EU would be irresponsible if they insist on refusing to reopen negotiation. He told Sky News that “are they really saying that they would rather not negotiate and end up in a ‘no-deal’ position?” And, “it is in all our interests to get to that agreement and for the EU to say we are not going to even discuss it seems to me to be quite irresponsible.”

      Canada CPI slowed to 6.8% yoy, but accelerated excluding food and energy

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        Canada CPI slowed from 6.9% yoy to 6.8% yoy in November. Excluding food and energy, CPI accelerated from 5.3% yoy to 5.4% yoy. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.1% mom, much slower than October’s 0.7% mom.

        CPI median accelerated from 4.9% yoy to 5.0% yoy. CPI trimmed was unchanged at 5.3% yoy. CPI common, accelerated sharply from 6.3% yoy to 6.7% yoy.

        Full release here.

        Fed’s Kashkari: Inflation progress made, yet target not fully achieved

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          Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged the strides made towards controlling inflation, yet emphasizing the journey towards 2% inflation target is ongoing.

          During an event, Kashkari highlighted, “We’re not all the way there yet, but we’ve made a lot of progress on inflation.”

          Kashkari pointed to recent inflation data as a sign of encouraging trends, noting that both three- and six-month inflation measures are aligning closely with Fed’s target. “The six-month data is basically there and the three-month data is basically there,” he observed, indicating that if current patterns persist, Fed is on a track to achieving its inflation objective.

          However, Kashkari remains cautiously optimistic, refraining from declaring an outright victory over inflation. “I don’t want to say we’re necessarily going to just glide past all the way to 2% but fingers crossed, the data is looking positive.”

          WH Kudlow has guarded optimism on China trade talks

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            In a CBS interview aired on Sunday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said trade negotiations with China got “closer and closer”. He hailed that “we made good headway last week when Vice Premier Liu He was here.” And talks will continue this week with “a lot of teleconferencing”. He also added “a lot of very difficult topics for the first time are on the table and being resolved”. He has “guarded optimism, may- maybe more than guarded optimism so we’re- we’re gaining on it.”

            Kudlow also said “great progress” was made on intellectual property theft. And “good progress” was made on “the forced transfer of technology, on the ownership.” But there are still “issues outstanding” including “enforcement related issues”.

            But he emphasized: “In each and every place, (A) they’ve acknowledged their problems. That was a very big hurdle. And (B) what wasn’t on the table is on the table, and (C) we’re getting closer and closer.”

            UK PMI composite finalized at 53.3, economy picked up since general election

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              UK PMI Services was finalized at 53.9 in January, up from 50.0 in December. PMI Composite rose to 53.3, up from 49.3, back in expansion region for the first time since last August. Markit noted there was robust and accelerated increase in new orders. Growth expectations also continued to improve.

              UK PMI composite finalized at 53.3,

              Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

              “January’s PMI surveys give a clear signal that the UK economy has picked up since the general election, as a diminishing headwind from political uncertainty translated into rising business and consumer spending. We maintain our nowcast of UK GDP rising by approximately 0.2% in the first quarter of 2020, which represents an improvement on the sluggish conditions seen at the end of last year.

              “A solid return to growth in the service sector was the main factor behind the recovery in the UK economy, with survey respondents commenting that a rebound in sales enquiries had quickly translated into rising workloads so far this year.

              “Signs of greater willingness to spend and renewed positivity about the domestic economic outlook has helped lift service providers’ growth projections to the highest for just under five years. However, this sub-index was the only measure in the final UK Services PMI dataset to drop since the earlier ‘flash’ estimate, which may suggest that business expectations tailed off towards the end of the month.

              “With the vast majority of PMI survey data collected prior to 23rd January, we’ve yet to see any overall impact on business conditions from the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, but disruptions to global supply chains and international travel could present risks to the UK economy and key trading partners in the coming months.”

              Full release here.

              Eurozone CPI jumped to 1.3% yoy in Mar, but core CPI slowed to 0.9% yoy

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                Eurozone CPI jumped to 1.3% yoy in March, up from 0.9% yoy, above expectation of 0.9% yoy. However, CPI core dropped to 0.9% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy, missed expectation of 1.1% yoy.

                Energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (4.3%, compared with -1.7% in February), followed by services (1.3%, compared with 1.2% in February), food, alcohol & tobacco (1.1%, compared with 1.3% in February) and non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, compared with 1.0% in February).

                Full release here.

                UK PMI manufacturing rose to 40-mth high, worries persist though

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                  UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 57.9 in March, up from 55.1, above expectation of 55.0. That’s also the highest level in 40 months. PMI services rose to 56.8, up from 49.5, above expectation of 51.0, a 7-month high. PMI Composite rose to 56.6, up from 49.6, also a 7-month high.

                  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The surge in business activity is far stronger than any economists expected, according to Reuters polls, and hints at only a modest contraction of GDP during the first quarter, adding to evidence that the economy has shown far greater resilience in the third lockdown compared to the first..

                  “Worries persist though, especially in relation to near-record supply chain delays, a continued fall in exports and sharply rising prices, all of which are making life difficult for many companies. Many consumer facing companies meanwhile remain constrained by COVID-19 restrictions, which are likely to curb the overall pace of economic growth for some time to come, especially if we see a third wave of infections.”

                  Full release here.

                  China industrial production, retail sales, investment missed expectations

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    Industrial production rose 6.4% yoy in July, below expectation of 7.8% yoy. Retail sales rose 8.5% yoy, below expectation of 11.5% yoy. Fixed asset investment grew 10.3% ytd yoy, below expectation of 11.3% ytd yoy.

                    “Given the combined impact of sporadic local outbreaks of Covid-19 and natural disasters on the economy of some regions, the economic recovery is still unstable and uneven,” said NBS. “We should not only look at the growth to analyze the economic situation, but also need to look at the overall picture of employment, prices and residential incomes.”

                    EU Tusk: Cannot betray increasing majority of British people who want to stay in EU

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk talked Brexit to the European Parliament day.

                      Tusk said the voices of British people whole wanted to stay in the EU shouldn’t be ignored. And he urged the Parliament to be open to a longer Article 50 extension. He said, “I said that we should be open to a long extension if the UK wishes to rethink its Brexit strategy, which would of course mean the UK’s participation in the European parliament elections. And then there were voices saying that this would be harmful or inconvenient to some of you…. Let me be clear: such thinking is unacceptable. You cannot betray the 6 million people who signed the petition to revoke article 50, the 1 million people who marched for a people’s vote, or the increasing majority of people who want to remain in the European Union.”

                      Juncker said it’s unclear how Brexit would unfold. And, “I told some of you that if you compare Great Britain to a sphinx then the sphinx would seem to me an open book. We will see in the course of this week how this book will speak,”

                      Also, chief Brexit negotiator told lawmakers: “In all scenarios, the Good Friday agreement will continue to apply. The United Kingdom will remain a core guarantor of that agreement and is expected to uphold it in spirit and in letter:” And, “the Commission is ready to make additional resources available to Ireland, technical and financial to address any additional challenges.”

                      AUD/NZD soars after RBNZ, more upside if policy diverges with RBA

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                        AUD/NZD soars sharply higher after RBNZ softened its hawkish stance, incorporating language in its latest statement that suggests a shift towards monetary easing. This change has created prospects for stronger rally in the cross, driven by policy divergence between RBNZ and RBA.

                        In particular, if RBNZ moves to cut interest rates sooner than previously projected, while RBA raises rates in response to strong Q2 Australian inflation data, AUD/NZD could see even more significant gains in the medium term.

                        Technically, immediate focus is now on 1.1085 key medium term resistance (2023 high). Firm break there will confirm whole rebound from 1.0469 (2022 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 1.0567 to 1.1027 from 1.0730 at 1.1190.

                        Strong break of 1.1190 would bring upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 1.1474 in the medium term. In any case, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0971 support holds for now.

                        BoJ’s Nakamura warns of inflation risks, advocates maintaining current policy

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                          ActionForex.com
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                          BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura, known for his dovish stance, cautioned in a speech today that “inflation may not reach 2 per cent from fiscal 2025 onward” if households reduce spending, which would discourage companies from further price hikes.

                          Nakamura highlighted that domestic consumption has been sluggish recently. He also pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of wage increases, noting that the impact of rising wages on prices has been weak too.

                          Given the current data, Nakamura stated that it is appropriate to keep monetary policy unchanged for the time being. He was the sole dissenter in the BoJ’s decision to end eight years of negative interest rates and bond yield control in March.

                          China Caixin PMI services dropped to 48.4, lowest since May

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                            China Caixin PMI Services dropped from 49.3 to 48.4 in October, below expectation of 49.2. PMI Composite dropped from 48.5 to 48.3. Both were the lowest readings since May.

                            Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Both supply and demand contracted to different degrees. The overall employment level increased slightly thanks to an expansion in employment of the services sector. Input costs for all surveyed enterprises rose slightly, while prices charged remained stable. Market sentiment improved but was still below the long-term average.

                            “Overall, the negative impact of Covid controls on the economy lingered, and the economy was faced with increasing downward pressure. In October, activities in the manufacturing and services sectors continued to shrink, while supply and both domestic and overseas demand contracted. Business costs increased. Service providers were in a better position than manufacturers in terms of prices charged and employment.”

                            Full release here.

                            UK PM May believes parliament will vote for her Brexit deal with EU

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                              UK Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her confidence that the parliament will vote for any Brexit deals that she strikes with the EU. She added that “parliament will vote for a deal because people will see the importance of a deal that maintains a good trading relationship with the EU … but gives us the freedom to take the benefits and opportunities of Brexit.”

                              Also regarding the possibility of being rejected by the Parliament, she said “do we really think … we’ve been through this negotiation we get to the point where we’ve agreed a deal that if parliaments was to say no go back and get a better one, do you really think the European Union is going to give a better deal at that point.” And, “the alternative to that will be having no deal.”

                              Separately, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said EU should “do everything possible to avoid a hard Brexit”. French President Emmanuel Macron said “it’s indispensable that we reach an agreement and that European Union rules be fully maintained.”

                              Fed Bostic: Coronavirus hasn’t change outlook or rate path yet

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                                Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that if China’s coronavirus becomes a “world issue, with ripples through many countries and many economies, then that’s different type of event than as I understand it to be today”. But for now, given our past recent experience with these sorts of things, I don’t think it should; it hasn’t changed my outlook or my expectation about our rates path.”

                                On monetary policy, Bostic said Fed’s three rate cuts last year are “working their way through the economy”. Policymakers “just have to wait and see”. There was “a lot of stimulus” for where the economy was. That should “make it more resilient to these sorts of things.”

                                Trump: EU has been brutal to us

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                                  Trump counter-attacked on EU’s criticism on his steel and aluminum tariff. He tweeted again during the weekend that the European Union has been “brutal to us”. And he warned that “if the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S.”

                                  That was in reaction to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s statement that “we will not sit idly while our industry is hit with unfair measures that put thousands of European jobs at risk.

                                  UK PM May repeated her warnings over no-deal Brexit

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                                    UK Prime Minister Theresa May repeated her warning that voting down her Brexit agreement in the parliament will put the UK into “uncharted territory”. And she added, “I don’t think anybody can say exactly what will happen in terms of the reaction that we’ll see in Parliament.”

                                    She also reiterated that the Irish backstop “is not intended to be used in the first place, and if it is, it’s only temporary”. And, “ensuring that we actually get the future relationship in place to replace the backstop if it’s used is actually a crucial element of this.”

                                    May also reiterated her opposition to a second referendum as that would “divide our country” and require a delay to Brexit.

                                    Separately, a cross party group of Conservative and Labour MPs are seeking to amend the government’s Finance Bill to ensure the “no deal” provisions in it can only be implemented if Parliament votes to allow it.

                                    Debate on the Brexit agreement will resume this Wednesday, with the vote due in the week beginning January 14.

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 6.6m, continuing claims more than doubled to 7.46m

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                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -261k to 6,606k in the week ending April 4. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1,599k to 4,266k.

                                      Continuing claims rose 4,396k to 7,455k in the week ending March 289, highest on record. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 1,439k to 3,500k.

                                      Full release here.

                                      NZ BNZ manufacturing rises to 47.3, still someway off to expansion

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                                        New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 43.4 to 47.3 in January, hitting the highest level since June last year. Despite this uptick, it’s important to note that the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for eleven straight months.

                                        BusinessNZ’s Director of Advocacy, Catherine Beard noted that while there are signs of improvement, “the sector is still someway off returning to expansion.”

                                        Looking at some details, production rose from 40.5 to 42.1. Employment rose from 47.0 to 51.3. New orders rose from 44.0 to 47.7. Finished stocks rose from 45.9 to 47.3. Deliveries rose from 43.7 to 49.3.

                                        However, the persistence of negative sentiment among businesses cannot be overlooked. The proportion of negative comments in January rose to 63.2%, up from 61% in December and 58.7% in November, reflecting concerns over seasonal factors such as holiday disruptions and a sustained lack of demand or orders.

                                        Full NZ BNZ PMI release here.

                                        BoE Bailey: Not enough finance has gone through to small firms

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                                          BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with Daily Mail that there are a number of “bottleneck” in the system, so that not enough finance has gone through to small firms in the coronavirus crisis. Only around GBP 2B has been lent to companies under the Covid Business Interruption Loan scheme.

                                          He noted it’s hard for banks to deal with a huge surge in loan demands, at a time when their staff are having health struggles. It’s also difficult to assess the risk with the loans to small firms. Bailey added, “this gums up the operational side. It is clearly not satisfactory and [the system] clearly needs to be un-gummed. I gee up the banks regularly. The Chancellor and I are both extremely keen that credit flows to firms.”

                                          Regarding lockdown exit, “I think we have to be careful when thinking about human psychology,’ he said. ‘If we had a lifting and then [lockdown] came back again, I think that would damage people’s confidence very severely.”

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