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China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing rises to 50.3, domestic demand recovery amid weak exports

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    ActionForex.com
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    China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in October, up from 49.3 and surpassing expectations of 49.5.

    According to Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, October brought a mix of positive developments, including “growth in manufacturing supply and demand, increases in prices, proactive inventory replenishment by companies, and logistics delays.”

    However, challenges persist as external demand remains soft; new export orders contracted for the third consecutive month. Wang added that declining employment levels and weak foreign demand continue to weigh on the sector.

    Full China Caixin PMI manufacturing release here.

    Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.2, weak domestic and global demand

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      ActionForex.com
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      Japan’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.2 in October, a decline from September’s 49.7, signaling continued contraction in the sector.

      Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that while output fell only slightly, it was at the sharpest rate since April, with new orders contracting at their fastest pace in three months. Companies cited “weakness in domestic and global demand” as weighing heavily on sales and output, particularly in the semiconductor and auto industries.

      Bhatti added that “near-term outlook is clouded” as firms worked through backlogs, suggesting that incoming orders are insufficient to support ongoing production. Business confidence also remained subdued, hovering near a two-year low, with firms expressing concerns about the timeline for recovery from the current “economic malaise.”

      Full Japan’s PMI manufacturing final release here.

      Canada’s August GDP stalls as goods production declines

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        ActionForex.com
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        Canada’s GDP growth was flat month-over-month in August, missing the anticipated 0.1% mom growth.

        Services sector provided some support, increasing by 0.1% mom, with notable gains in finance, insurance, and public administration.

        However, the goods-producing sector contracted by -0.4% mom, marking its lowest point since December 2021, driven by declines in manufacturing and utilities.

        Despite the overall stagnation, 12 out of 20 sectors showed growth, indicating resilience across much of the economy.

        Early estimates for September indicate a modest recovery, with real GDP expected to rise by 0.3% mom.

        Full Canada GDP release here.

        US initial jobless claims falls to 216k, vs exp 231k

          By
          ActionForex.com
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          US initial jobless claims fell -12k to 216k in the week ending October 26, below expectation of 231k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -2k to 237k.

          Continuing claims fell -26k to 1862k in the week ending October 19. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 11k to 1869k., highest level since November 27, 2021.

          Full US jobless claims release here.

          US core PCE price index unchanged at 2.7% yoy in Sep

            By
            ActionForex.com
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            In September, US personal income rose by 0.3% mom, or USD 71.6B, slightly below the expected 0.4% mom increase. Meanwhile, personal spending grew by 0.5% mom or USD 105.8B, exceeding forecasts of a 0.4% mom rise.

            PCE price index rose 0.2% mom, while core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% mom, both aligning with expectations. Breaking down price components, goods prices decreased by -0.1% mom, and services prices increased by 0.3% mom. Food prices rose by 0.4% mom, while energy prices saw a significant -2.0% mom decline.

            On a year-over-year basis, the headline PCE price index edged down from 2.2% yoy to 2.1% yoy, meeting forecasts. However, core PCE price index remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy, slightly above the anticipated 2.6% yoy. Goods prices dropped by -1.2% yoy, while services prices rose by 3.7% yoy. Food prices increased by 1.2% yoy, and energy prices saw a sharp decline of -8.1% yoy.

            Full US personal income and outlay release here.

            ECB’s Panetta calls for easing as inflation declines and economic weakness persists

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              ActionForex.com
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              Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta emphasized the need for further easing of restrictive monetary conditions in the Eurozone, citing concerns about economic softness amid declining inflation.

              Panetta highlighted in a speech today that as inflation moderates, it’s essential to consider “the weakness of the real economy” and avoid deepening the downturn.

              “In the absence of a firm recovery we would run the risk of pushing inflation well below target, a situation that monetary policy would struggle to counter, and which must be avoided,” he added.

              Eurozone CPI rises to 2% in Oct, core unchanged at 2.7%

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                ActionForex.com
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                Eurozone CPI rose from 1.7% yoy to 2.0% yoy in October, above expectation of 1.9% yoy. CPI core (energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unchanged at 2.7% yoy, above expectation of 2.6% yoy.

                Looking at the main components, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (3.9%, stable compared with September), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.9%, compared with 2.4% in September), non-energy industrial goods (0.5%, compared with 0.4% in September) and energy (-4.6%, compared with -6.1% in September).

                Full Eurozone CPI release here.

                BoJ’s Ueda has no preset idea on the timing of next hike

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  Following BoJ’s decision to maintain its current interest rate, Governor Kazuo Ueda said at the press conference that the central bank has “no preset idea” on the timing of its next rate increase. He added that each policy decision will be based on a thorough assessment of the latest economic data and outlook revisions.

                  Ueda highlighted promising signs from the latest Tokyo CPI data, observing that the “pass-through of rising wages on services prices is broadening.” He added that BoJ will closely monitor whether this trend spreads across the nation.

                  Domestically, wages and prices are generally moving in line with BoJ forecasts, and recent changes in companies’ wage- and price-setting behaviors over the past two years point to a potential structural shift. However, Ueda acknowledged that it’s uncertain whether this shift will gain momentum or fade over time.

                  Ueda also pointed out the importance of currency volatility and commodity prices, as these factors significantly impact domestic import prices.

                  While recent political developments in Japan are unlikely to alter BoJ’s price forecasts, Ueda noted that substantial policy changes could prompt revisions as needed.

                  ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation target in sight but prudence warranted

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    In an interview with Le Monde, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed cautious optimism about Eurozone’s inflation path, noting that the target is “in sight” but stressing that inflation is not yet fully subdued. While headline CPI dipped to 1.7% in September, core inflation, excluding energy and food, remained elevated at 2.7%.

                    Lagarde acknowledged satisfaction with the recent drop in headline inflation but warned that “inflation is going to rise again in the coming months” due to base effects. Thus, she emphasized that “prudence is warranted.”

                    She reiterated the importance of reaching the 2% target “on a sustained and durable basis,” projecting that, barring any major shocks, the ECB expects this goal to be achieved by 2025.

                    Full interview of ECB’s Lagarde here.

                    China’s NBS PMI manufacturing rises to 50.1, first expansion in six months

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 in October, meeting expectations and marking the first expansion since April. The improvement was led by large enterprises, which rose to 51.5 from 50.6, while medium-sized firms inched up to 49.4. Small enterprises, however, saw a further contraction, declining to 47.5 from 48.5.

                      Key subindices pointed to slight domestic improvement: production reached a six-month high of 52.0, and new orders returned to neutral at 50.0 after five months of contraction.

                      Though still below 50, subindices for employment (48.4), purchases (49.3), imports (47.0), and backlog of orders (45.4) showed smaller declines, suggesting a gradual stabilization.

                      However, new export orders continued to weaken, reaching an eight-month low at 47.3, underscoring soft external demand.

                      Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up from 50.0 to 50.2, just shy of the 50.5 forecast, with the employment subindex rising by 1.1 points to 45.8.

                      BoJ maintains rate at 0.25% on unanimous vote

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        BoJ kept its uncollateralized overnight call rate steady at approximately 0.25% in a unanimous decision, aligning with market expectations. The central bank indicated that if the outlook for economic activity and prices materializes as anticipated, it will “accordingly continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.” This signals readiness to tighten monetary policy further, contingent on economic developments.

                        Nevertheless, BoJ emphasized the necessity of paying close attention to the “future course of overseas economies,” particularly the US, along with developments in financial and capital markets due to their impact on Japan’s economic activity and price outlook.

                        In its latest economic projections, the BoJ made the following adjustments:

                        Real GDP Growth:

                        • Fiscal 2024: Unchanged at 0.6%.
                        • Fiscal 2025: Revised upward from 1.0% to 1.1%.
                        • Fiscal 2026: Unchanged at 1.0%.

                        CPI Core (excluding fresh food):

                        • Fiscal 2024: Unchanged at 2.5%.
                        • Fiscal 2025: Revised downward from 2.1% to 1.9%.
                        • Fiscal 2026: Unchanged at 1.9%.

                        CPI Core-Core (excluding fresh food and energy):

                        • Fiscal 2024: Increased from 1.9% to 2.0%.
                        • Fiscal 2025: Unchanged at 1.9%.
                        • Fiscal 2026: Unchanged at 2.1%.

                        Full BoJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

                        Japan’s industrial production rises 1.4% mom in Sep, continues to fluctuate indecisively

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
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                          Japan’s industrial production increased by 1.4% mom in September, exceeding expectations of 0.8%. This recovery follows a sharp -3.3% mom drop in August when a typhoon disrupted operations across various sectors.

                          Out of the 15 industrial sectors surveyed, 10, including motor vehicles and chemical production, recorded growth. Five sectors, such as production machinery, saw declines.

                          Despite this recovery, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its cautious view, describing industrial production as “fluctuating indecisively.”

                          Looking ahead, manufacturers polled by the ministry expect a robust 8.3% mom increase in output for October, followed by a -3.7% mom decline in November, indicating ongoing volatility in Japan’s production.

                          Meanwhile, Japan’s retail sales rose by a modest 0.5% yoy in September, falling significantly short of the anticipated 2.3% yoy growth.

                          Australia’s retail sales show modest 0.1% mom growth in Sep

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Australia’s retail sales turnover increased by a modest 0.1% mom in September, reaching AUD 36.46B but falling short of the expected 0.4% mom rise. This follows a 0.7% gain in August and a flat outcome in July.

                            Commenting on the data, Robert Ewing, Head of Business Statistics at ABS, noted that “retail spending held firm in September” following a boost in August from warmer-than-usual weather.

                            The report also highlighted quarterly retail sales volumes, which grew by 0.5% in Q3, marking a recovery after back-to-back declines of -0.4% in both Q2 and Q1.

                            Ewing added that this increase in volumes reflects “some of the lost ground in discretionary spending this year,” marking only the second quarterly rise in retail volumes over the past two years.

                            Full Australia retail sales release here.

                            NZ ANZ business confidence hits 10-yr high , optimism grows on lower interest rates

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence surged from 60.9 to 65.7 in October, marking its highest level in a decade and reflecting a wave of optimism among businesses.

                              This renewed confidence is supported by a range of positive indicators: the outlook for own activity increased slightly from 45.3 to 45.9, while export intentions jumped from 13.8 to 17.1, the highest since September 2018. Investment intentions also surged from 9.2, reaching 20.0, the highest level since June 2021, and employment intentions rose from 11.8 to 14.2, the highest since November 2021.

                              Several key metrics highlight this optimism. Cost expectations dropped from 66.8 to 64.2, indicating some relief in business expenses, while wage expectations edged up slightly from 76.4 to 77.0. Pricing intentions also rose, climbing from 42.8 to 44.2, suggesting businesses may feel confident in passing some costs to consumers. Profit expectations strengthened from 22.2 to 27.0, and inflation expectations continued their downward trend, dipping from 2.92% to 2.82%.

                              According to ANZ, “steady falls in interest rates” have provided a strong boost to business sentiment, encouraging growth across multiple sectors.

                              Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                              US Q3 GDP growth slows to 2.8% annualized, vs exp 3.0%

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                US economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly below the expected 3.0% and down from the previous quarter’s 3.0% growth.

                                This increase in real GDP was primarily supported by stronger consumer spending, exports, and federal government expenditures. However, a rise in imports, which detracts from GDP, partially offset these gains.

                                Inflation pressures moderated, with PCE Price Index rising by 1.8%, down from 2.5% in Q2 and well below the expected 2.7%.

                                Full US GDP advance release here.

                                US ADP jobs rises 233k, hiring robust and resilient

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  US ADP report revealed robust private sector job growth in October, with employment rising by 233k, well above the forecasted 110k. Sector-wise, service-providing jobs led the way with a 211k increase, while goods-producing jobs added 22k.

                                  By company size, large businesses contributed the most with 140k jobs, followed by medium-sized firms at 86k, and small companies at 4k.

                                  Wage growth trends continued to ease, with year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers slowing to 4.6% and for job-changers to 6.2%.

                                  ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson highlighted the labor market’s resilience, noting that “even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October.” As the year approaches its end, the U.S. hiring remains “robust and broadly resilient.”

                                  Full US ADP employment release here.

                                  Eurozone GDP grows 04% qoq in Q3, Germany avoids recession

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Eurozone GDP rose by 0.4% qoq in Q3, surpassing the anticipated 0.2% qoq growth. A notable surprise came from Germany, where GDP grew by 0.2% qoq against expectations of a -0.1% qoq contraction, allowing Europe’s largest economy to narrowly avoid a recession. France also outperformed, with GDP increase of 0.3% qoq for the quarter.

                                    For the EU as a whole, GDP expanded by 0.3% qoq. Among member states, Ireland posted the strongest growth at 2.0% qoq, followed by Lithuania at 1.1% qoq and Spain at 0.8% qoq.

                                    However, some economies faced contraction, with Hungary’s GDP declining by -0.7% qoq, Latvia’s by -0.4% qoq, and Sweden’s by -0.1% qoq.

                                    Year-over-year growth was mixed across the EU, with positive annual growth rates reported in seven countries, while six saw negative growth.

                                    Full Eurozone GDP release here.

                                    Swiss KOF falls to 99.5 in Oct, recovery very hesitant

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer declined sharply from 104.5 to 99.5 in October, missing the expected 105.0 and falling below the 100-point threshold for the first time since January. This shift suggests a weakening outlook for the Swiss economy, with the KOF describing the recovery as “very hesitant.”

                                      In October, indicators across all production-related sectors, including manufacturing, financial and insurance services, hospitality, and construction, showed declines.

                                      Demand-side indicators, such as those for foreign and consumer demand, remained stable but showed little promise of stimulating stronger economic momentum.

                                      Full Swiss KOF release here.

                                      Australia’s Q3 CPI slows to 2.8% yoy, goods prices fall but services edge higher

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Australia’s Q3 CPI came in softer than anticipated, with consumer prices rising just 0.2% qoq, down from 1.0% qoq in Q2 and below expectations of 0.3% qoq. This marks the lowest quarterly increase since Q2 2020.

                                        On an annual basis, CPI slowed from 3.8% yoy to 2.8% yoy, comfortably returning to RBA’s target range of 2-3% and registering the lowest year-over-year inflation rate since Q1 2021.

                                        Core inflation, measured by trimmed mean CPI, showed resilience with a 0.8% qoq rise, down from Q2’s 0.9% qoq, but slightly above the expected 0.7% qoq. Annually, trimmed mean CPI slowed from 3.9% yoy to 3.5% yoy, aligning with market expectations.

                                        The breakdown shows a notable shift in price pressures: annual goods inflation dropped sharply from 3.2% yoy to 1.4% yoy, largely due to substantial declines in electricity and fuel costs. However, services inflation edged up slightly from 4.5% yoy to 4.6% yoy, driven by higher costs in rents, insurance, and child care.

                                        September monthly CPI echoed this trend, slowing significantly from 2.7% yoy to 2.1% yoy, undershooting expectations of 2.3% and marking the smallest annual increase since July 2021.

                                        This softer inflation data should provide the RBA with room to consider easing its policy stance in the coming months, should inflation remain within target.

                                        Full Australia CPI release here.

                                        SNB’s Schlegel signals more rate cuts to support price stability amid muted growth outlook

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          SNB Chair Martin Schlegel indicated that “further interest rate reductions” might be necessary in the coming quarters to uphold “price stability” over the medium term.

                                          At an event overnight, Schlegel highlighted that SNB’s current priority is to “normalize monetary policy” carefully, ensuring it does not become “too restrictive.”

                                          Looking at the inflation outlook, Schlegel shared an optimistic view, noting that SNB’s forecasts show inflation remaining within “the area of price stability” in the long term. SNB projects average inflation rates of 1.2% for 2024, followed by 0.6% in 2025, and 0.7% in 2026.

                                          However, the economic growth forecast remains modest, with Swiss GDP expected to grow about 1% this year. Schlegel cautioned that growth will likely be “muted” over the next few quarters, though he anticipates a “step-by-step improvement” in the medium term.

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