Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for February rose 3.7 pts to -33.9, below expectation of -33.0. In January, Economic expectations improved from -10.3 to -0.6. Income expectations rose from -43.4 to -32.2. Propensity to buy dropped from -16.3 to -18.7.
“With the fourth increase in a row, the positive trend in consumer sentiment is consolidating. Even though the level is still very low, pessimism has eased recently”, explains GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl.
“Falling energy prices, such as for gasoline and heating oil, have ensured that consumer sentiment is less gloomy. Nevertheless, 2023 will remain difficult for the domestic economy. Private consumption will not be able to positively contribute to overall economic development this year. This is also signaled by the still very low level of the indicator.”
Eurozone PMI composite rose to 50.2, escaping recession but renewed contraction shouldn’t be ruled out
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.8 to 48.8 in January, above expectation of 48.1. PMI services rose from 49.8 to 50.7, above expectation of of 49.4, and back in expansion. PMI Composite rose from 49.3 to 50.2, a 7-month high.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“A steadying of the eurozone economy at the start of the years adds to evidence that the region might escape recession…. The region is by no means out of the woods yet, however, as demand continues to fall – merely dropping at a reduced rate… The case for higher interest rates is fuelled further by the upturn in employment growth recorded during the month and signs of higher wages driving the latest upturn in price pressures.
“A case for policy caution is supported by the survey merely indicating a stagnation of the eurozone economy, hinting that a renewed slide into contraction should not be ruled out as borrowing costs rise, but the survey undoubtedly brings welcome good news to suggest that any downturn is likely to be far less severe than previously feared and that a recession may well be avoided altogether.”
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