EU and Eurozone growth and inflation forecasts upgrade

    In the Summer 2021 Interim Economic Forecast, European Commission upgraded EU and Eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2021 and 2022 respectively. EU GDP growth is projected to be at 4.8% in 2021 (prior 4.2%) and 4.5% in 2022 (prior 4.4%). Eurozone GDP growth is projected to be at 4.8% in 2022 (prior 4.3%) and 4.5% (prior 4.4%).

    EU inflation is projected to be at 2.2% in 2021 (prior 1.9%) and 1.6% in 2022 (prior 1.5%). Eurozone inflation is projected to be at 1.9% in 2021 (prior 1.7%) and 1.4% in 2022 (prior 1.3%).

    Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People said: “The European economy is making a strong comeback with all the right pieces falling into place. Our economies have been able to reopen faster than expected thanks to an effective containment strategy and progress with vaccinations”

    Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy said: “The EU economy is set to see its fastest growth in decades this year, fuelled by strong demand both at home and globally and a swifter-than-expected reopening of services sectors since the spring. Thanks also to restrictions in the first months of the year having hit economic activity less than projected.”

    Full release here.

    Into US session: Euro loses some ground, ECB press conference awaited

      Entering into US session, Euro trades mildly softer after ECB left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. Main refinancing rate is held at 0.00%, marginal lending facility rate at 0.25%, deposit facility rate at -0.40%. Yen remains the strongest one as supported by strength in JGB yields. 10 year JGB yield hit as high as 0.099 before closing at 0.09. Australian Dollar and New Zealand reversed earlier gain and turn broadly lower. On the other hand, Dollar is regaining some ground for today.

      But for the week, Canadian Dollar remains the strongest one, followed by Yen. Euro and Dollar are taking turn to be the weakest. ECB President Mario Draghi holds the key to unlock a direction in EUR/USD. But he’s likely hold it to his chest in today’s press conference.

      In other markets, stocks are mixed. Germany responds very well to the EU Juncker’s assessment and Trump’s concessions. At the timing of writing, DAX is up 1.38%, CAC is up 0.35%. FTSE, on the other hand, is flat. Risk aversion was dominant in Asia though. China Shanghai SSE closed down -0.74%, Hong Kong HSI down -0.48%. Nikkei also lost -0.12%.

      The offshore Chinese yuan continues to stabilize against dollar today. USD/CNH once dipped to as low as 6.733 earlier today but recovered to above 6.78. For now, there is no clear sign of a trend reversal yet. That is Yuan is still technically in a near term down trend. But at least, it’s past the climax of selloff. And we’d likely see more consolidation below 6.85.

      BoJ Kuroda: Too early to debate specifics on stimulus exit

        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today, “it will take more time to achieve our 2% inflation target in a stable manner, so it’s too early to debate specifics on how to exit from easy policy.”

        Core consumer inflation in Japan is generally expected to climb up in the months ahead, with prospect of hitting the 2% target. But Kuroda talked down the significance of such development. “I don’t think Japan is in a condition where inflation stably hits 2%, even when the impact of cellphone fee cuts taper off and energy prices rise further,” he said.

        Kuroda just reiterated that BoJ will consider stimulus exit when 2% inflation is achieved. And, “in doing so, we will guide monetary policy to ensure markets including those for Japanese government bonds remain stable.”

        UK payrolled employment falls -67k in Mar, unemployment rate rises to 4.2% in Feb

          UK payrolled employment fell -67k or -0.2% mom in March. Median monthly pay rose 5.6% yoy, slowed from prior month’s 6.2% yoy. Claimant count rose 10.9k, below expectation of 17.2k.

          In the three months to February, unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.2%, above expectation of 4.0%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.6% yoy, unchanged from prior month’s rate. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.0%, down slightly from January’s 6.1% yoy.

          Full UK labor market data release here.

          US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 89.8 in Dec

            US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined -2.1 pts to 89.8 in December, below expectation of 91.6. That’s also the 12th consecutive month the index was below 49-year average of 98.

            “Overall, small business owners are not optimistic about 2023 as sales and business conditions are expected to deteriorate,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Owners are managing several economic uncertainties and persistent inflation and they continue to make business and operational changes to compensate.”

            Full release here.

            Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 31.9, still point to -9% GDP contraction in 2020

              Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 30.5 in May, up from April’s 12.0. PMI Composite was finalized at 31.9, up from 13.6. Among the member states where data are available, improvement were seen in Italy, Germany, France and Spain. But all PMI composite stayed well below 50, with Italy at 33.9, Germany at 32.3, France at 32.1, Spain at 29.2.

              Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

              Eurozone GDP is consequently set to fall at an unprecedented rate in the second quarter, accompanied by the largest rise in unemployment seen in the history of the euro area.” But ” the downturn has already eased markedly in all countries surveyed.”

              “Providing there is no resurgence of infection numbers, the planned lifting of lockdowns will inevitably help boost business activity and sentiment further in coming months. “However, the outlook is scarred by the prospect of demand remaining weak due to household spending being hit by high levels of unemployment and corporate spending being subdued as companies repair balance sheets.”

              “We therefore remain cautious with respect to the recovery. Our forecasters expect GDP to slump by almost 9% in 2020 and for a recovery to prepandemic levels of output to take several years.”

              Full release here.

              BoJ’s Ueda sees multiple options for target interest rates post-negative rate era

                BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted there are various options for its interest rate targets once it transitions away from negative short-term borrowing costs. However, he emphasized that no decision has been made yet regarding this shift. Ueda reiterated BoJ’s commitment to continuing its monetary easing under Yield Curve Control to support economic activity and foster a cycle of wage growth.

                Speaking to the parliament, Governor Ueda noted the economy is to continue recovering moderately. But there is “extremely high” uncertainty surrounding the outlook. He emphasized, “We have not yet reached a situation in which we can achieve [our] price target sustainably and stably and with sufficient certainty.”

                Regarding shifts in BoJ’s monetary policy, Ueda outlined that once the central bank moves away from its negative interest rate policy, it could consider various options for its interest rate targets. These include continuing to target the interest rate applied to reserves that financial institutions hold with the central bank or reverting to a policy that focuses on the overnight call rate. He clarified, “We have not made a decision yet on which interest rate to target once we end our negative interest rate policy.”

                 

                US PPI accelerated to 2.1%, core PPI to 1.7%

                  US PPI rose 0.5% mom, 2.1% yoy in January, well above expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.4% yoy. PPI core rose 0.5% mom, 1.7% yoy, also well above expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.2% yoy.

                  Building permits rose 9.2% mom to 1.551m annualized rate, above expectation of 1.450m. Housing starts dropped -3.6% mom to 1.567m, above expectation of 1.390m.

                  ECB Villeroy backs 50bps hike this month to finish first half of the game

                    ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview on Sunday, for this month’s meeting, “it’s desirable to bring rates to 2%, so a rise of 0.5 or 50 basis points.”

                    Bringing interest rate to 2% will market the first half of the game of normalization. “In the second half of the match, rates will continue to rise but I can’t say where this will stop,” adding the the pace would be slower.

                    He also noted it would be “wise to start to reduce (the balance sheet) in 2023, beginning with the APP holdings in the “first half of the year, clearly but cautiously and progressively.”

                    USTR confirms trade deal with China, maintain 25% tariffs on $250B and 7.5% on $120B of Chinese goods

                      US Trade Representative confirmed in a formal statement that US and China have reached an “historic and enforceable” agreement on a Phase one trade deal. The deal requires “structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.” Also, China commits to make “substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” A strong dispute resolution system is established with the deal that “ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement.”

                      Meanwhile, USTR said “The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.”

                      US President Donald Trump also tweeted: “We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder. The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!”

                      In a delayed press conference, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said the text of trade deal phase one was agreed with the US. And there will be removal of tariffs on Chinese goods in stages. Also, China will increase imports from US and other countries.

                      UK payrolled employment fell -3k in May, unemployment rate rises to 4.4% in Apr

                        UK payrolled employment fell slightly by -3k in May, following -85k monthly decline in April. Annual growth rate of payrolled employment slowed further from 0.7% yoy to 0.6% yoy. Annual growth in median pay was at 5.2% yoy, down sharply from April’s 6.8% yoy. Claimant count jumped 50.4k, versus expectation of 10.2k.

                        In the three months to April, unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above expectation of 4.3%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.9% yoy, above expectation of 5.7% yoy. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.0% yoy, matched expectations.

                        Full UK employment release here.

                        RBA to hold. AUD/JPY drawing support from 81.48.

                          RBA up next in Asian session. OCR is widely expected to be kept unchanged at 1.50%. RBA will also maintain a neutral stance. Movements in Aussie is more likely tied to risk appetite/aversion than RBA. Australia will also release current account and retail sales.

                          More on RBA

                          AUD/JPY is a pair that’s worth watching. It’s pressing key long term cluster level at 81.48, close to 50% retracement of 72.39 to 90.29. Return of risk appetite could trigger a rebound through 83.17 resistance. And that would in turn trigger a near term reversal.

                          Trump’s Economic Advisor Kudlow: US GDP could hit 5% as catch up

                            US National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow talked to FOX Business News. He said US annual GDP could hit 5% growth as a “catch up”. He pointed to the “long-term trend line for GDP versus the actual now”. And added that the US is like “several trillion dollars below where we should be based on the long-term trend lines”. And he wants to “get back to that full potential”.

                            Kudlow also said he expected trade barriers between US and China will come down on both sides as part of a deal. Earlier, he emphasizedd that “none of the tariffs have been put in place yet, these are all proposals.” And Trump’s administration is “putting it out for comment”. He added “there’s at least two months before any actions are taken”.

                            Japan’s CSPI rises 2.8% yoy in Apr, highest annual increase since 2015

                              Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index saw a notable increase of 2.8% yoy in April, surpassing the expected 2.3% yoy and accelerating from 2.4% yoy in the previous month. This marks the fastest annual rise since March 2015. On a monthly basis, service prices rose 0.7% mom from March, though this was a slight slowdown from the prior month’s 0.9% mom increase.

                              The significant annual gains can be attributed to rising labor costs in labor-intensive service sectors, particularly in areas such as machine repair and industrial facility renovation. This surge in service prices highlights the growing cost pressures within Japan’s service industry, driven by an tight labor market.

                              Canada retail dales dropped -2.1% in May, more contraction expected in June

                                Canada retail sales dropped -2.1% mom to CAD 53.8B in May, better than expectation of -3.0% mom decline. The largest declines occurred at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-11.3%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.4%). Sales decreased in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 65.6% of retail trade. Advance estimate showed further -4.4% mom contraction in retail sales in June.

                                Full release here.

                                EU comments on US auto tariffs investigations full statement

                                  Earlier today, Politico reported EU’s comments on US section 232 cars investigation submitted to US Department of Commerce last Friday. Below is the full statement from European Commission. Also, EU requested to participate in public hearing on July 19/20.

                                  EU comments on US section 232 Cars investigation

                                  The European Union has on Friday 29 June submitted written comments to the US Department of Commerce in the framework of the on-going Section 232 National Security Investigation of imports of automobiles, including cars, SUVs, vans, light trucks and automotive parts.

                                  The EU has also requested to participate in the public hearing to be held by the Department of Commerce scheduled for 19 and 20 July.

                                  The EU takes the view, as was the case of the section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, that this current investigation lacks legitimacy, factual basis and violates international trade rules. The EU reiterates its firm opposition to the proliferation of measures taken on supposed national security grounds for the purposes of economic protection. This development harms trade, growth and jobs in the US and abroad, weakens the bonds with friends and allies, and shifts the attention away from the shared strategic challenges that genuinely threaten the market-based Western economic model.

                                  The EU written comments relate to various areas on which input was requested by the US Department of Commerce to conduct its current investigation. The EU submits that:

                                  1. Imports of European automobiles in the US are stable, in line with US production and responding to market signals. Automobile imports from the EU do not threaten or impair the health of the US industry and economy. The EU and US industry specialise in largely different market segments and over the last 5 years imports from the EU have been stable and correlated to US general GDP growth.

                                  2. There is no economic threat to the US automobile industry which is healthy, having steadily expanded domestic production in the last 10 years. Imposing restrictive measures would undermine the current positive trends of the US automobile and automotive parts sector and negatively impact US GDP by up to 13-14 billion USD.

                                  3. EU car companies contribute significantly to US welfare and employment. They are well integrated in the US value chain and export about 60 % of automobiles to third countries including the EU, contributing to improving the US trade balance. They provide 120,000 direct upstream jobs in manufacturing plants and 420,000 jobs with dealers. Trade restrictions are likely to lead to higher input costs for US based producers, thus in effect a tax on the American people.

                                  4. EU car companies foster innovation through research and develop the local workforce. Rather than posing a threat to national security, they are a driver for securing long-term economic stability and competitiveness. Almost a fifth of research and development expenditures in the US is derived from foreign-owned subsidiaries. The EU automotive industry also actively contributes to enhancing the skillsets of the US workforce.

                                  5. The impact on the US economy will be aggravated significantly by the likely countermeasures of US Trading partners, as evidenced by the reaction to the US section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. On the basis of the current section 232 investigation into automobile and automotive parts, US trade restrictive measures could result in a very significant volume of US exports affected, estimated at USD 294 billion (or around 19 % of US total exports in 2017).

                                  6. Trade restrictive measures would be contrary to international trade rules. There are no exceptions under the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) that justify import restrictions by a developed country to protect a domestic industry against foreign competition, unless in the form of permitted trade remedy measures. Although the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) provides for security exceptions, the scope of these exceptions has been circumscribed carefully for specific situations and conditions, which are absent in this case.

                                  7. There is no national security threat from imports of automobile and automotive parts. Without prejudice, we underline that the Department of Commerce’s analysis of national security must be narrowly tailored to focus on direct threats to national security, in particular defense applications. US needs for vehicles or vehicle parts for defence or military purposes, mainly Light Tactical Vehicles, appear to be covered by US-based specialised suppliers. These operate in a niche market that is independent and unrelated to the US automobile industry. As only products from US based manufacturers are used by the US military, any trade restrictions imposed on the passenger car, light trucks and car parts market cannot be justified on national security grounds.

                                  US Mnuchin: We’ll try to get Canada on board quickly

                                    US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview that the US-Mexico Trade Agreement is a “great move forward for trade”. Meanwhile, he, as perceived as a trade dove, added that “our objective is to try to get Canada on board quickly”.

                                    Mnuchin also acknowledged that “this is a great deal for American workers. If you remember one thing, this deal is about more trade for U.S. companies and goods and services, and that’s what we’re focused on.”

                                    Regarding China, Mnuchin said that “We’ve been very clear. We need better market access to China we need reciprocal trade”. And, “these are issues that our allies in the G-7 agree with us on.”

                                    EU announces targeted contingency measures in case of no-deal Brexit

                                      The European Commission announced today a set of “targeted contingency measures” in case of no-deal Brexit on January 1, 2021. The measures aim at ” ensuring basic reciprocal air and road connectivity between the EU and the UK, as well as allowing for the possibility of reciprocal fishing access by EU and UK vessels to each other’s waters.”

                                      President von der Leyen said: “Negotiations are still ongoing. However, given that the end of the transition is very near, there is no guarantee that if and when an agreement is found, it can enter into force on time. Our responsibility is to be prepared for all eventualities, including not having a deal in place with the UK on 1 January 2021. That is why we are coming forward with these measures today”.

                                      Full release here.

                                      German ZEW dropped to -24.5, a lasting containment of factors are causing uncertainty

                                        German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to -24.5 in July, down from -21.1 and missed expectation of -22. Current Situation Index dropped to -1.1, down from 7.8 and missed expectation of 5. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment dropped slightly to -20.3, down from -20.3 and beat expectation of -20.9. Eurozone Current Situation index dropped -6.9 to -10.6.

                                        ZEW President Achim Wambach said: “Continued negative trend in incoming orders in the German industry is likely to have reinforced the financial market experts’ pessimistic sentiment. A lasting containment of the factors that are causing uncertainty in the export-oriented sectors of the German economy is currently not in sight. The Iran conflict seems to be intensifying and the ongoing trade dispute between the USA and China is a burden not only to Chinese economic development. Furthermore, no discernible progress has been made in the negotiations as to what Brexit will look like.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Brainard: Fed to continue tightening methodically through series of hikes and balance sheet reduction

                                          Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in a speech that FOMC will “continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting.”

                                          “Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017–19,” she added.

                                          “I expect the combined effect of rate increases and balance sheet reduction to bring the stance of policy to a more neutral position later this year, with the full extent of additional tightening over time dependent on how the outlook for inflation and employment evolves,” she said.

                                          Full speech here.