US Ross: Very good chance to get a reasonable settlement that China can live with

    US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed his optimism on US-China trade negotiation in a CNBC interview. He said “there’s a very good chance that we will get a reasonable settlement that China can live with, that we can live with and that addresses all of the key issues. And to me those are immediate trade. That’s probably the easiest one to solve,”

    Regarding the slowdown in China, Ross said it’s a “big problem in their context of having a very big need to create millions of millions of jobs to hold down social unrest coming out of the little villages”. And that could create a “real social problem. But he added, regarding the slowdown, he is “not happy nor guilty. We expected this would happen.” But, “what has changed is China now understands how independent they are on us.”

    US delegation is having the second day of trade talks in Beijing today.

    RBA considered 15bps, 25bps, 40bps hikes in May

      In the minutes of May 3 meeting, RBA revealed that three options on interest rate hikes were considered, including 15bps, 25bps and 40bps.

      Raising the cash rate by 15bps was not preferred “given that  policy was very stimulatory and that it was highly probable that further rate rises would be required.” And argument for 40bps “could be made given the upside risks to inflation and the current very low level of interest rates”.

      But the preferred option of was 25bps, as “a move of this size would help signal that the Board was now returning to normal operating procedures after the extraordinary period of the pandemic”

      Full minutes here.

      Postion trading update: EUR/JPY short entered at 127.80

        Here an update to the EUR/JPY position trading strategy as last mentioned in the week report here. In short, we’ve entered short at 127.80. Stop is placed at 129.30, slightly above 129.29 resistance.

        Overall developments affirm our bearish view. The price actions from 127.49 as well as from 126.63 are corrective looking, suggesting fall from 133.12 is not over. EUR/JPY is also capped comfortably by 55 day EMA. Daily MACD is so far held in negative region. These are all bearish indications.

        We’d expect a test on 126.63 after taking out 127.49 minor support. Break will resume the fall from 133.12 for a another take on 124.08 key support. We’d cautiously look at the reaction from there. But we’re leaning towards resumption of the down trend from 137.49 to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90. So we’ll keep the target at 120.00 first.

        Barnier: EU27 firmly united to avoid hard Irish border

          EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier reiterated that “we need a legally operative solution in the Withdrawal Agreement to address the problems created by Brexit on island of Ireland.”

          And, “EU27 firmly united. We must avoid hard border, protect the Good Friday Agreement, all-island economy and integrity of Single Market… We continue to defend EU27 interests and values… We stand united.”

          Into US session: Sterling recovers on wage growth, but Canadian stronger

            Risk appetite remains generally firm in the global markets today. Asian markets closed broadly higher and strength continues in European session. Mixed economic data from Europe is generally ignored by stock investors. Sentix warned that Eurozone is on threshold of recession as Investor Confidence deteriorated in to -3.3 in June. On the other hand, UK unemployment rate stayed at 44-year low but wage growth accelerated in April.

            In the currency markets, Sterling is lifted by wage growth data but Canadian Dollar is even stronger. After all, sluggishness in UK growth could eventually drags down wage growth if Brexit uncertainty is no resolved swiftly. Dollar is following as the third strongest, awaiting PPI. Yen and Swiss Franc are soft on risk appetite, but New Zealand and Australian Dollar are also weak.

            In other markets, currently:

            • DOW future is up 126 pts or 0.48%.
            • Gold is down -0.38% as Dollar rises.
            • WTI crude oil is up 1.09%.

            In Europe:

            • FTSE is up 0.48%.
            • DAX is up 1.33%.
            • CAC is up 0.80%.
            • German 10-year yield is down -0.0018 to -0.218.

            Earlier in Asia:

            • Nikkei rose 0.33%.
            • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.76%.
            • China Shanghai SSE rose 2.58%.
            • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.67%.
            • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0109 to -0.11.

            Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.9% yoy in Dec, core CPI at 3.4% yoy

              Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.9% yoy in December, up from November’s 2.4% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 3.4% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.6% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.74 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+1.21 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.66 pp) and energy (-0.68 pp).

              EU CPI was finalized at 3.4% yoy, up from November’s 3.1%. The lowest annual rates were registered in Denmark (0.4%), Italy and Belgium (both 0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Czechia (7.6%), Romania (7.0%) and Slovakia (6.6%). Compared with November, annual inflation fell in fifteen Member States, remained stable in one and rose in eleven.

              Full Eurozone CPI release here.

              IMF urges BoE to avoid inaction bias, should prepare markets for more frequent policy moves

                IMF urged BoE to “avoid inaction bias” in a statement today, despite facing “difficult trade-offs”.

                “It would not be a simple matter to see through extended shifts in relative wages and prices while keeping expectations anchored,” IMF said. “It would be important to avoid inaction bias, in view of costs associated with containing second-round impacts. Careful communication would be needed to lay the groundwork with markets for potentially more frequent policy moves.”

                IMF said UK economic growth will “remain strong in the near term, but so too will price pressures”. It forecasts 6.8% growth in 2021, and 5% growth in 2022. Inflation would peak at about 5.5% in the spring of 2022, then gradually return to target by early 2024.

                Full statement here.

                Trump: Fed sticks like a stubborn child, doesn’t know what it’s doing

                  Trump complains Fed with his tweet again and said it “doesn’t know what it is doing”. He said Fed “raised rates far too far” and “did large scale tightening, $50 Billion/month”, referring to balance sheet wind down. And, if Fed had gotten it right, “thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s”.

                  Trump also said Fed policymakers stick “like a stubborn child”. And, “when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!”

                  Twitter

                  By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                  Learn more

                  Load tweet

                  BoE Carney: It’s a big package to bridge across economic disruption

                    After the emergency rate cut by -50bps to 0.25%, BoE Governor Mark Carney and his successor Andrew Baily appeared as at press conference. He said today’s”comprehensive and timely package” will help households and businesses “bridge across the economic disruption” caused by the coronavirus. He hailed that it’s a “big package”, with a ” a huge term funding certainty for the financial sector”. Also, “there are fiscal measures that are coming”.

                    It’s “too early” to judge if there will be a recession in the UK, he added. “We have a sense of the direction, a sense of the orders of magnitude, could be large.” Though, “there is no reason for it to be as bad as 2008 if we act as we have, and if there is that targeted support.”

                    Australian Dollar lower on job and China data, a look at EURAUD

                      Australian Dollar is trading as the weakest one today as pressured by its own data miss as well as weaker than expected China data. Australia employment rose 12k seasonally adjusted in May, below consensus of 19.2k. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, as participation rate also dropped to 65.5%.

                      From China, retail sales rose 8.5% yoy in May, slowed from 9.4% yoy and missed expectation of 9.6% yoy. Industrial production slowed to 5.8% yoy, down from 7.0% yoy and missed expectation of 7.0% yoy. Fixed asset investment slowed to 6.1% yoy, down from 7.0% yoy and missed expectation of 7.0% yoy.

                      EUR/AUD is a top mover today and is displaying strength across time frames.

                      EUR/AUD action bias table also shows some promising near term upside momentum.

                      This could be seen clearly in the H and 6H action bias charts too.

                      However, a look at D action bias chart sees that EUR/AUD has just come out of a near term down trend. While the near term rebound is impressive, it doesn’t warrant a trend reversal yet.

                      So, we would not suggest chasing the rally. In particular, there is an high profile risk in ECB policy decision and press conference today.

                       

                      EU: UK will still need to elect MEP if it leaves after July 2

                        European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas once again told a regular news briefing that there is no request for Article 50 extension from the UK yet. But he pointed out that if the UK is going to leave after July 2, Britons will need to elect their representatives to the next European Parliament.

                        He said, “We … as the guardian of EU treaties, suggest caution with any suggestion that the right of EU citizens to vote in the European Parliament elections, according to the rules that are applicable, could be called into question”.

                        And, “we have a legally composed European Parliament which requires directly elected MEPs from all member states at the latest on the first day of the new term of the new parliament, which this time is the second of July.”

                        BoE Carney might be asked to extend his term again in case of Brexit delay

                          According to a Financial Times report, in case of another Brexit delay, BoE Governor Mark Carney might be asked to extend his term once again, beyond the planned departure date of January 31. Ensuring smooth Brexit transition, in whatever form, is a top priority of the central bank. Additionally, UK might face another elections in the coming months. Any proposed successor for Carney could be easily rejected by the next government.

                          Carney, who took over the job from Mervyn King on July 1 on 2013, originally planned to serve a five-year term only. He had been asked to extend his term before by former Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond.

                          Gold breaking down, heading back to 1676 support

                            Gold drops notably in early US session and it’s now heading back to 1700 handle. Current development argues that corrective recovery from 1676.65 has completed at 1755.29, ahead of 1764.31 support turned resistance. It’s also held well below falling 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. Corrective fall from 2075.18 is likely still in progress.

                            Break of 1676.65 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1617.67. We’ll look for bottoming signals again there.

                            New Zealand GDP grew 0.5%, services led

                              New Zealand GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q2, above expectation of 0.4% qoq. Services industries grew 0.7%, accelerated from 0.3%. Services growth was also wide-spread, in 8 out of 11 industries. Primary industries expanded 0.7%, rebound from two consecutive declines. However, goods-producing industries fell -0.2%, following 1.9% rise back in Q1.

                              NZD/USD stays soft after the release even though reaction was relatively muted. The decline was mainly due to the hawkish Fed cut overnight. Corrective recovery from 0.6269 should have completed at 0.6450 already. As long as 0.6362 minor resistance holds, further fall should be seen to retest 0.6269 next.

                              US initial jobless claims dropped to 444k, lowest since March 2020

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -34k to 444k in the week ending May 15, below expectation of 450k. That’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -30.5k to 505k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

                                Continuing claims rose 111k to 3751k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 25k to 3681k.

                                Full release here.

                                US initial jobless claims rose to 261k, highest since Oct 2021

                                  US initial jobless claims rose 28k to 261k in the week ending June 3, well above expectation of 235k. That’s also the highest level since October 30, 2021, when it was 264k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 7.5k to 237k.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -37k to 1757k in the week ending May 27. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -12.5k to 1785k.

                                  Full US jobless claims release here.

                                  US Treasury not to name China a currency manipulator, just keep it in monitoring list

                                    There are media reports came out yesterday saying that US Treasury is not going to name China a currency manipulator in the upcoming report to be released later in the month. Though China will remain on a monitoring list due to the huge trade surplus with the US.

                                    That could put Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin under even bigger pressure from Trump and the trade hawks in his administration. Mnuchin is clearly the one who preferred to and tried to line up restart of negotiation with China. But he has been receiving cold shoulders from his colleagues.

                                    And Trump seemed to have gotten impatient with Mnuchin. If should be reminded that Trump didn’t just complained Fed for rate hikes. In his words, he said earlier “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

                                    In a Bloomberg interview yesterday, Mnuchin declined to comment and only said “We are concerned about the depreciation” of the yuan, he said, “and want to make sure that it’s not being used as a competitive devaluation.”

                                    USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) was rejected from 6.9586 high yesterday, mainly thanks to Dollar’s broad based selloff. It’s technically still bounded inside a near term rising channel. Thus, more upside (that is more downside in Yuan) could be seen. But the corrective structure of the choppy rise from 6.7776 warrants that 6.9586 won’t be broken even in case of another rise.

                                    ECB President Lagarde press conference live stream

                                      YouTube

                                      By loading the video, you agree to YouTube’s privacy policy.
                                      Learn more

                                      Load video

                                      US Mnuchin on China trade talks: Both sides agreed to set up enforcement offices

                                        In a CNBC interview yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked about some concrete progress in US-China trade negotiations, including the core issue of enforcement.

                                        Mnuchin said: “We’ve pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism. We’ve agreed that both sides will establish enforcement offices that will deal with the ongoing matters. This is something both sides are taking very seriously… We are really focused on the execution of the documents.”

                                        Nevertheless he refused to put a timeline of the talks. “We are hopeful we can do this quickly, but we are not going to set an arbitrary deadline,” Mnuchin said. “If we can complete this agreement, this will be the most significant changes to the economic relationship between the U.S. and China in really the last 40 years. The opening of the Chinese economy will be a tremendous opportunity with structural changes that will benefit U.S. workers and U.S. companies.”

                                        Chinese commerce ministry confirmed today that senior trade negotiators from both countries held phone calls earlier this week. Gao Feng, the ministry’s spokesman said “in the next step, both trade teams will keep in close communication, and work at full speed via all sorts of effective channels to proceed with negotiations.”

                                        US Mnuchin putting enormous amount of effort to meet China trade talk deadline

                                          US Treasury Secretary confirmed that he and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will travel to Beijing next week for trade negotiations. Mnuchin said prior meetings with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington were “very productive”.

                                          He added that he and Lighthizer are “committed to continue these talks”. And, “We’re putting in an enormous amount of effort to try to hit this deadline and get a deal. So that’s our objective.”

                                          Mnuchin also said “we are also very focused on free and fair trade for U.S. companies to have access there and to having a more level playing field which will bring down the trade deficit.”

                                          His comments echoed Trump’s remark in the State of Union Address that the trade deal “must include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices, reduce our chronic trade deficit and protect American jobs.”