US goods trade deficit widened to USD -90.3B in Dec

    US exports of goods dropped -1.6% mom to USD 166.8B in December. Imports of goods rose 1.9% mom to USD 257.1B. Goods trade deficit rose 8.8% mom to USD -90.3B, versus expectation of USD -88.8B.

    Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% mom to USD 934.1B. Retail inventories rose 0.5% mom to USD 742.2B.

    Full release here.

    US GDP grew 2.9% annualized in Q4

      US GDP grew 2.9% annualized in Q4, slightly above expectation of 2.8%. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

      For 2022, GDP grew 2.1%, compared with an increase of 5.9% in 2021. The increase in real GDP in 2022 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports increased.

      Full release here.

      IMF proposes options for BoJ to allow further flexibility and increases in long-term yields

        IMF said in a statement that “accommodative monetary policy stance remains appropriate” for BoJ. But it warned of the “exceptionally high uncertainty around baseline inflation projections with risks tilted to the upside”.

        Upside risks include “delayed effects of exchange rate depreciation, border reopening, second round effects of imported inflation, fiscal support, and higher-than-expected wage growth.” Downside risks are mainly from slowdown in the global economy.

        “Given the two-sided risks to inflation, more flexibility in long-term yields would help to avoid abrupt changes later… providing clear guidance on the pre-conditions for a gradual policy rate change in the future would help anchor market expectations and strengthen the credibility of the BoJ’s commitment”.

        “BoJ could consider the following options to allow further flexibility and increases in long-term yields: widening the 10-year target band and/or raising the 10-year target, shortening the yield curve target, or shifting from a JGB yield target to a quantity target of JGB purchases”.

        Full statement here.

        German EM Habeck: We have broken the inflation trend

          German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Bundestag that inflation will remain high at the beginning of this year. But, “we have broken the inflation trend.”

          According to the government’s annual economic report published yesterday, inflation is projected to be at 6% in 2023, revised down by prior forecast of 7%. The economy is projected to growth 0.2% this year, much better than autumn forecast of -0.4% contraction.

          Habeck also noted that in 2024, inflation will be lower than in 2023 and growth will be higher.

          EUR/CAD resuming up trend, CAD softens after BoC

            Canadian Dollar is trading as the worst performer for the week so far, after BoC raised interest rate by a final 25bps in the current cycle. A pause will follow for the impacts of previous tightening to pass through to the economy.

            EUR/CAD’s breach of 1.4639 temporary top suggests that larger up trend from 1.2867 is resuming. Further rally is now expected as long as 1.4498 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3270 to 1.4591 from 1.4232 at 1.5048. Break of 1.4498 will bring more consolidations before staging another rally.

            BoJ Opinions: Necessary to take some time to examine effect of YCC change

              In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s January 17-18 monetary policy meeting, it’s repeated noted that it’s important to continue with current monetary easing as well as yield curve control.

              The modification of YCC at the December meeting was “aimed solely at making monetary easing more sustainable”. It is “necessary” to “take some time” to examine the effects of the change in YCC.

              One member noted the “upward pressure” on long-term interest rates and the distortions on the yield curve. And, BoJ “should curb interest rate rises across the entire yield curve through measures”.

              Regarding prices, CPI is expected to fall below 2% from fiscal 2023, and there is “still a long way to go to achieve the price stability target”.

              But opinions were more upbeat as one noted that “momentum for wage hikes has grown, and it is possible that a certain degree of base pay increases will be realized”. But it still takes time for wages to see a “sustained increase”.

              Firms’ stance has “shifted toward actively raising their selling prices” as seen in the outlook for output prices. Pace of rises in prices of both goods and services is “accelerating”. It’s possible that the significant price shocks since last week will “change the norm for prices”.

              Full Summary of Opinions here.

              BoC hikes 25bps, confirms a pause

                BoC raises overnight rate by 25bps to 4.50% as widely expected. The Bank Rate and deposit rate are also lifted to 4.75% and 4.50% respectively.

                In the statement, BoC said, “If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.”

                That is, a pause is going to follow. But, BoC is still “prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target.”

                BoC also noted, that recent economic growth has been “stronger than expected” with the economy remains in “excess demand” Labor markets are “still tight”. But there is “growing evidence that restrictive monetary is slowing activity”. It expects the effects of tightening to “continue to work through the economy” while weaker foreign demand will weigh on exports.

                BoC projects growth of about 1% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. Inflation is projected to fall to around 3% in the middle of 2023, and then 2% in 2024.

                Full statement here.

                ECB Makhlouf: Need to take similar steps to Dec in Feb and Mar

                  ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, “We need to continue to increase rates at our meeting next week – by taking a similar step to our December decisions – and also at our March meeting, although our future policy decisions need to continue to be data-dependent given the prevailing uncertainty.”

                  “Raising the policy rate also signals our commitment to price stability,” Makhlouf added. “It sends a clear message that we will not allow inflation to stay above 2 per cent and helps to contain inflation expectations, guarding against the emergence of self-reinforcing inflation dynamics and tackling the risk of a persistent increase in inflation expectations.”

                  Separately, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said, “For February and March, we have announced that we will raise interest rates sharply again. Then we will look at where the inflation rate is in the spring and what our experts’ forecast looks like. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to keep raising rates even after the two announced steps.”

                  Germany Ifo business climate rose to 90.2, starting new year with more confidence

                    Germany Ifo Business Climate rose slightly from 88.6 to 90.2 in January, below expectation of 90.5. Current Assessment ticked down from 94.4 to 94.1, below expectation of 95.0. Expectations index, on the other hand, improved from 83.2 to 86.4, above expectation of 85.0.

                    By sector, manufacturing rose from -5.7 to -0.7. Services rose from -1.2 to 0.2. Trade rose from -20.0 to -15.4. Construction also rose slightly from -21.9 to -21.6.

                    Ifo said: “Sentiment in the German economy has brightened. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 90.2 points in January, up from 88.6 points in December. This is due to considerably less pessimistic expectations. Companies were, however, somewhat less satisfied with their current situation. The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence.”

                    Full release here.

                    Japan government downgrades economic assessment

                      Japan Cabinet Office lowers its monthly economic assessment for the first in 11 months. It said, “the economy is recovering moderately but some weakness is seen recently.”

                      Also assessment on exports was downgraded for the first time since 2011. Both exports and imports are “weakening recently” compared with its previous view of “almost flat” last month.

                      “China’s coronavirus rebound could affect Japan’s exports and production and such a possibility has become clearer than last month,” said an official at the Cabinet Office.

                      Assessment on domestic demand and private consumption was maintained as “picking up moderately”.

                      BoC Previews: One more insurance hike before pausing

                        BoC is expected to deliver an “insurance” rate hike of 25bps today, to bring policy rate to 4.50%. After this eighth consecutive increase, the central bank is expected to pause the tightening cycle.

                        It’s already indicated in the December statement that the bank will be “considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further”. BoC should more explicitly indicate that it’s now the time to let pass rate hikes work through the economy.

                        The question would then shift to the time interest rate is going to stay at this level, but no answer is expected any time soon.

                        Here are some previews on BoC:

                        CAD/JPY has been losing downside momentum for some time, as seen in daily MACD and a bounce is overdue. Yet, even in case of a rebound, strong resistance could be seen between 55 day EMA (now at 99.65) and 38.2% retracement of 110.33 to 94.61 at 100.61 to cap upside. Until 100.61 is taken out decisively, any bounce is more of a short opportunity than a turnaround.

                        AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD extends up trend

                          Australian Dollar surges broadly after much stronger than expected CPI reading in December in particular dented any hope for an imminent RBA pause. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar is just mixed as CPI didn’t accelerate as RBNZ projected, raising hope of a lower terminal rate.

                          AUD/NZD breaks through 1.0935 resistance to resume the whole rally from 1.0469. The support from 55 day EMA is seen as a near term bullish favor. Further rise is now expected as long as 1.0735 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0469 to 1.0935 from 1.0735 at 1.1023. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.1201 next.

                          AUD/CAD also breaks through 0.9442 temporary top to resume the rally from 0.8596. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9279 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8596 to 0.9328 from 0.9142 at 0.9594. Sustained break there would also prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9874 next.

                          Australia CPI rose to 8.4% yoy in Dec, 7.8% yoy in Q4

                            Australia CPI rose 1.9% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 1.7% qoq. Annual CPI accelerated from 7.3% yoy to 7.8% yoy, above expectation of 7.5% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI also accelerated from 6.1% yoy to 6.9% yoy, above expectation of 6.5% yoy.

                            Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said “This is the fourth consecutive quarter to show a rise greater than any seen since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2000. The increase for the quarter was slightly higher than the quarterly movements for the September and June quarters last year (both 1.8 per cent).”

                            “The annual increase for the CPI is the highest since 1990. Annual inflation for goods such as new dwellings and automotive fuel steadied this quarter, however we saw an uptick in inflation for services such as holidays and restaurant meals,” Marquardt said.

                            Monthly CPI accelerated from 7.3% yoy to 8.4% yoy in December, above expectation of 7.7% yoy.

                            Marquardt said, “The monthly indicator recorded the largest annual rise in the series in December. The most significant contributors in the 12 months to December were New dwellings, up 16.0 per cent, and Holiday travel and accommodation, up 29.3 per cent. Airfare and accommodation prices rose in response to strong demand over the Christmas holiday period.”

                            Full release here.

                            New Zealand CPI unchanged at 7.2% yoy in Q4

                              New Zealand CPI rose 1.4% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 1.5% qoq. Annual CPI was unchanged at 7.2% yoy, above expectation of 7.1% yoy, comparing to the peak at 7.3% yoy in Q2.

                              StatsNZ said, “Housing and household utilities was the largest contributor to the December 2022 annual inflation rate. This was due to rising prices for both constructing and renting housing.”

                              The quarterly rise in inflation was “influenced by rising prices in the housing and household utilities, food, and recreation and culture groups.”

                              Full release here.

                              ECB Simkus backs hikes of 50bps in the coming meetings

                                ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said yesterday, “core inflation remains strong and demonstrates that the fight against inflation is not over.”

                                “There’s a strong case for staying on the course that’s been set for the coming meetings of 50 basis-point increases. In my opinion, these 50 basis-point increases must be taken unequivocally,” he added.

                                “Pressures in wage growth are increasing — I expect wage increases to exceed historical averages in the euro area,” he said. “It’s something that’s happening and something we need to take into account because it affects core inflation.”

                                “It’s clear to me that the current economic environment requires us to deliver increases of 50 basis points in the coming meetings,” he said. “When we move to the more distant periods of the summer or next autumn, we need to wait and see.”

                                SNB Schlegel: Cannot rule out further interest increases

                                  SNB Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said yesterday, “we cannot rule out further interest increases at present,” even though inflation is forecast to fall back to 2.4% in 2023, and 1.8% in 2024.

                                  “The maintenance of price stability has absolute priority for the SNB,” he added.

                                  Meanwhile, Schlegel also expects a weak growth dynamic in the coming quarters.

                                  ECB Panetta: Beyond February any unconditional guidance would depart from data-driven approach

                                    ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said in an interview, “It was reasonable to increase rates in December and signal a similar step in February.”

                                    “But beyond February any unconditional guidance – that is, guidance unrelated to the economic outlook – would depart from our data-driven approach.”

                                    “Our December decisions were based on the projections available at that time. In March we will have new ones and should reassess the situation.”

                                    “Inflation is still too high, but recent developments suggest that we can fend off the risks of second-round effects and bring down inflation by continuing to adjust our policy rates in a well-calibrated, non-mechanical way.”

                                    Full interview here.

                                    US PMI composite rose to 46.6, started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note

                                      US PMI Manufacturing rose from 46.2 to 46.8 in January. PMI Services rose from 44.7 to 46.6. PMI Composite rose from 45.0 to 46.6.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                      “The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again in January. Although moderating compared to December, the rate of decline is among the steepest seen since the global financial crisis, reflecting falling activity across both manufacturing and services.

                                      “Jobs growth has also cooled, with January seeing a far weaker increase in payroll numbers than evident throughout much of last year, reflecting a hesitancy to expand capacity in the face of uncertain trading conditions in the months ahead. Although the survey saw a moderation in the rate of order book losses and an encouraging upturn in business sentiment, the overall level of confidence remains subdued by historical standards. Companies cite concerns over the ongoing impact of high prices and rising interest rates, as well as lingering worries over supply and labor shortages.

                                      “The worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK PMI composite hit 24-month low, decline rate remains only modest

                                        UK PMI Manufacturing rose from 45.3 to 46.7 in January, above expectation of 45.4. However, PMI Services dropped from 49.9 to 48.0, below expectation of 49.6, hitting a 24-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 49.0 to 47.8, a 24-month low too.

                                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Weaker than expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession… There were some bright spots in the survey, including improved business expectations for the year ahead and a further cooling of inflationary pressures. The overall rate of decline indicated also remains only modest. But this is undeniably a disappointing start to the year for the UK.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Eurozone PMI composite rose to 50.2, escaping recession but renewed contraction shouldn’t be ruled out

                                          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.8 to 48.8 in January, above expectation of 48.1. PMI services rose from 49.8 to 50.7, above expectation of of 49.4, and back in expansion. PMI Composite rose from 49.3 to 50.2, a 7-month high.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                                          “A steadying of the eurozone economy at the start of the years adds to evidence that the region might escape recession…. The region is by no means out of the woods yet, however, as demand continues to fall – merely dropping at a reduced rate… The case for higher interest rates is fuelled further by the upturn in employment growth recorded during the month and signs of higher wages driving the latest upturn in price pressures.

                                          “A case for policy caution is supported by the survey merely indicating a stagnation of the eurozone economy, hinting that a renewed slide into contraction should not be ruled out as borrowing costs rise, but the survey undoubtedly brings welcome good news to suggest that any downturn is likely to be far less severe than previously feared and that a recession may well be avoided altogether.”

                                          Full release here.