Eurozone CPI rises to 2.6% in May, CPI core up to 2.9%

    Eurozone CPI accelerated from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy in May, above expectation of 2.5% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also jumped from 2.7% yoy to 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.7% yoy.

    Looking at the main components, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in May (4.1%, compared with 3.7% in April), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%, compared with 2.8% in April), non-energy industrial goods (0.8%, compared with 0.9% in April) and energy (0.3%, compared with -0.6% in April).

    Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

    China’s manufacturing PMI falls back into contraction in May

      China’s official PMI Manufacturing index fell from 50.4 to 49.5 in May, below the expected 50.5, indicating contraction after two months of expansion. The new manufacturing export order subindex also dropped significantly to 47.2 from 50.6 in April, highlighting weakening external demand.

      PMI Non-Manufacturing index ticked down slightly from 51.2 to 51.1, missing the expectation of 51.5. Within this sector, the construction new order subindex decreased to 44.1 from 45.3, and the service sector business activity subindex declined to 47.4 from 50.3, showing reduced activity.

      PMI Compositewhich combines manufacturing and non-manufacturing data, fell from 51.7 to 51.0, indicating a slowdown in overall economic activity.

       

      Japan’s Tokyo CPI core rises in May, industrial production weakens in Apr

        In May, Japan’s Tokyo CPI core (excluding fresh food) increased from 1.6% yoy to 1.9% yoy, matching expectations. This rise was primarily driven by higher electricity costs. However, CPI core-core (excluding food and energy) slowed slightly from 1.8% yoy to 1.7% yoy. Private sector service inflation also decreased from 1.6% yoy to 1.4% yoy. The headline CPI saw an uptick from 1.8% yoy to 2.2% yoy.

        April’s industrial production declined by -0.1% mom, falling short of the anticipated 1.5% mom rise. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry maintained its assessment that industrial production “showed weakness while fluctuating indecisively.” Among the 15 industrial sectors surveyed, seven reported lower output, while eight saw increases. Manufacturers expect output to rise by 6.9% in May before falling by -5.6% in June.

        Additionally, April’s retail sales jumped by 2.4% yoy, surpassing the expected 1.9% increase. Unemployment rate remained steady at 2.6%.

        Fed’s Logan: Interest rates may be less restrictive than anticipated

          Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested at an event overnight that interest rates might not be “as restrictive as” policymakers had anticipated.

          Emphasizing the need for flexibility, she added, “It’s really important to keep all options on the table and that we continue to be flexible.”

          Nevertheless, Logan also noted there are “good reasons” to believe that inflation is heading back to 2%, ” perhaps a bit slower and a little bit clunkier maybe than we thought at the beginning of the year.”

          Fed’s Bostic: No rate hikes expected, but inflation risks remain

            Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Fox Business overnight that he does not expect further rate hikes to be necessary to bring inflation down to the target. However, he cautioned that if inflation were to reaccelerate, “I’d have to take on board the likelihood that a rate increase is appropriate.”

            Bostic emphasized the need for economic data to show the economy is “sufficiently strong” and that inflation is moving closer to Fed’s 2% target before supporting any rate cuts, but he clarified, “That’s not my outlook today.” He anticipates that inflation will decrease “very slowly” over the year, reaching 2% target by 2025 or later.

            Fed’s Williams: Policy well-positioned, unlikely to see further rate hikes

              New York Fed President John Williams told CNBC overnight that current monetary policy is “well-positioned” and “restrictive” enough to help bring inflation down to target levels. He added that further rate hikes are unlikely, stating, “I don’t see that as the likely case.”

              Williams highlighted that interest rates in the US will “eventually need to come down” based on data analysis, but the timing will depend on how effectively the Fed achieves its goals. He expects inflation to moderate in the second half of this year as the economy finds better balance and global inflationary pressures ease.

              However, Williams emphasized, “Inflation is still above our 2% longer-run target, and I am very focused on ensuring we achieve both of our dual mandate goals.”

              US initial jobless claims rises to 219k, slightly above expectation

                US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 219k in the week ending May 25, slightly above expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 222.5k.

                Continuing claims rose 4k to 1791k in the week ending May 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6k to 1786k.

                Full US jobless claims release here.

                Eurozone unemployment rate falls to 6.4%, EU steady at 6.0%

                  Eurozone unemployment rate fell from 6.5% to 6.4% in April, below expectation of 6.5%. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0%.

                  Eurostat estimates that 13.149 million persons in the EU, of whom 10.998 million in Eurozone, were unemployed in April 2024.

                  Full Eurozone unemployment release here.

                  Eurozone economic sentiment rises to 96, EU up to 96.5

                    Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator ticked up from 95.6 to 96.0 in May, matched expectations. Employment Expectations Indicator fell -0.3 pts to 101.3. EU ESI rose 0.3 pts to 0.6.5. EU EEI fell -0.4 to 101.2.

                    For the largest EU economies, the ESI improved significantly for France (+1.5) and the Netherlands (+1.1) and more moderately for Germany (+0.8) and Italy (+0.8), while it deteriorated markedly for Spain (-3.2) and Poland (-1.5).

                    Full EZ ESI release here.

                    Swiss KOF falls to 100.3, signals modest economic momentum

                      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 101.9 to 100.3 in May, falling short of expectations of 102.2. This year, the barometer has managed to stay only slightly above its medium-term average. KOF noted, “Although the Swiss economy is robust, it is not showing much vigour beyond that.”

                      Indicators for manufacturing, financial and insurance services, and foreign demand all slowed down after positive developments in the previous month. However, indicators for private consumption and the construction industry helped cushion the decline with increases.

                      Full Swiss KOF release here.

                      Swiss GDP grows 0.3% in Q1, services sector Leads

                        Switzerland’s GDP, adjusted for sporting events, grew by 0.3% qoq in Q1, meeting expectations.

                        The industrial sector’s overall value added stagnated. Manufacturing declined slightly by -0.2%, and chemical and pharmaceutical industries fell by -0.9%. Construction industry grew modestly by 0.3%, while energy sector saw solid growth of 2.1%.

                        Services sector drove GDP growth despite uneven performance. Financial services declined by -0.2%, and business-related services contracted by -0.3%. Transport and communication sector was flat.

                        However, accommodation and food services sector grew by 1.3%, health and social care services increased by 0.8%, and public administration rose by 0.2%. Retail sector grew strongly by 1.4%, leading to a 1.3% overall increase in trade.

                        Full Swiss GDP release here.

                        RBA’s Hunter cautious on persistent inflation despite wage trends

                          At a conference today, RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter highlighted the central bank’s intense focus on inflation, which continues to exceed the target band.

                          Discussing the latest CPI data, Hunter noted, “Yesterday’s data did confirm that there’s still strength in a number of categories that we’ve seen up until this point that’s still there.” The latest CPI figures, which show a slight increase from 3.5% to 3.6% in April, underline ongoing inflationary pressures across various sectors.

                          “So clearly there’s still some strength in inflation, and that’s a key consideration for the board in their decision-making,” Hunter added.

                          While wage growth appears to have peaked, Hunter expressed concerns about productivity which remains weak: “We can see some components of wages growth coming off already, particularly individual agreements,” she said. However, she also pointed out, “But equally, we are seeing that there’s a bit of a productivity challenge over the last few years.”

                          SNB’s Jordan identifies minor inflation risk due to weakening franc

                            SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan highlighted at an event in Seoul today a “small upward risk” to the current inflation forecasts, which could mean a “more accommodative than intended” monetary policy if realized.

                            Jordan pointed out that such inflationary pressures are likely tied to declines in Swiss franc. To mitigate this, the central bank might consider engaging in foreign exchange sales to bolster the currency.

                            Moreover, Jordan noted that the natural rate of interest—which serves as a crucial benchmark for setting monetary policies—has shown signs of increasing and may continue to rise in the foreseeable future.

                            Despite these concerns, Jordan reassured that the current policy settings are expected to remain effective in maintaining price stability, even if the natural rate of interest edges higher.

                            Fed’s Bostic eyes rate cuts by year-end

                              Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that interest rate cuts might be on the table by the fourth quarter of this year, provided economic conditions align with his expectations.

                              “My outlook is that if things go according to what I expect — inflation goes slowly, the labor market slowly and orderly moves back into a sort of a weaker stance, but a stable-growth stance — I’m looking at the end of the year, the fourth quarter, as the time where we might actually think about and be prepared to reduce rates,” Bostic said.

                              While acknowledging that the breadth of inflation remains high, Bostic noted that a reduction in this breadth would increase his confidence in making rate cuts. He mentioned that many of the inflation measures “are moving back into the target range,” suggesting progress towards Fed’s goals.

                              Fed Beige Book: Modest economic growth amid heightened uncertainty

                                Fed’s Beige Book indicates that most Federal Reserve Districts experienced “slight or modest” economic growth, while two Districts saw no change in activity. The overall economic outlook has become more “pessimistic” due to increased uncertainty and greater downside risks.

                                Employment across the country grew at a slight pace, with eight Districts reporting “minimal to modest” job gains and the remaining four seeing no changes. Wage growth was generally moderate, with some Districts noting that wage increases have returned to pre-pandemic levels or are moving towards those rates.

                                Prices rose modestly over the reporting period, and this trend is expected to continue in the near future.

                                Full Fed’s Beige Book here.

                                German Gfk consumer sentiment jumps to -20.9, falling inflation and wages increase

                                  Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment index for June improved significantly, rising from -24.0 to -20.9 and surpassing expectations of -22.5. This marks the fourth consecutive month of improved sentiment.

                                  In May, economic expectations jumped from 0.7 to 9.8, while income expectations rose from 10.7 to 12.5, the highest level since January 2022. Willingness to buy edged up slightly from -12.6 to -12.3, and willingness to save dropped sharply from 14.9 to 5.0, the lowest value since August 2023.

                                  Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM, explained that “falling inflation rates combined with considerable wage and salary increases strengthen consumer purchasing power. This stimulates income expectations and also reduces consumer uncertainty, which was responsible for the comparatively high willingness to save in previous months.”

                                  Despite these positive trends, Bürkl noted that uncertainty still lingers among German consumers. This is attributed to the lack of clear future prospects in the country, which undermines planning certainty for significant purchases. “People will have to regain this certainty before they are willing to invest their growing purchasing power in larger purchases,” he added.

                                  Full German Gfk consumer sentiment release here.

                                  BoJ’s Adachi: Yen depreciation could prompt earlier rate hike

                                    BoJ board member Seiji Adachi has signaled that the central bank could raise interest rate earlier if depreciation of Yen accelerates or persists.

                                    In his speech today, Adachi emphasized the need to avoid premature rate increases. However, he also warned that an excessive focus on downside risks could lead to an inflation spike, necessitating sharp monetary tightening later on.

                                    Adachi highlighted the importance to “gradually adjust” monetary support based on economic, price, and financial developments, as long as underlying inflation trends toward 2% target.

                                    He projected that consumer inflation will re-accelerate from summer through autumn due to rising import costs and sustained wage gains. However, if Yen’s decline accelerates or persists, “consumer inflation could rebound sooner than expected”.

                                    “If this happens at a time when there is a higher chance of inflation durably and stably exceeding 2%, we may need to push forward the timing of an interest rate hike,” Adachi noted.

                                    New Zealand ANZ business confidence falls to 11.2, inflation pressures ease

                                      New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index dropped from 14.9 to 11.2 in May, signaling a decline in business sentiment. Outlook for own activity also decreased from 14.3 to 11.8.

                                      Cost expectations saw a reduction 76.7 to 72.6, the lowest since February 2021. Wage expectations ticked down slightly from 75.5 to 75.4. Profit expectations fell sharply, from -9.8 to -15.3, and pricing intentions decreased from 46.9 to 41.6, the lowest level since December 2020. Inflation expectations edged down from 3.76% to 3.59%.

                                      According to ANZ, “This month’s Business Outlook survey makes for grim reading, but it also provides confirmation that inflation pressures are waning.”

                                      They indicated that significant progress in reducing non-tradable inflation is anticipated, which, barring any unforeseen inflationary spikes, should restore RBNZ’s confidence. This would potentially allow for future rate cuts, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook on inflation control and economic stability.

                                      Full ANZ business confidence release here.

                                      Australia’s April CPI rises to 3.6%, driven by housing and food costs

                                        Australia monthly CPI rose form 3.5% yoy to 3.6% yoy in April, exceeding the expectation of 3.4%. This marks the second consecutive month of rising inflation. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel remained steady at 4.1% yoy, while the trimmed mean CPI also edged up from 4.0% yoy to 4.1% yoy.

                                        Significant price increases were observed in several categories: Housing saw a 4.9% rise, Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.8%, Alcohol and tobacco prices surged by 6.5%, and Transport costs went up by 4.2%.

                                        Full Australia monthly CPI release here.

                                        Australia’s Westpac Leading Index rises to -0.01%, some signs of stabilization

                                          Australia Westpac Leading Index improved slightly in April, rising from -0.08% to -0.01%. Westpac noted that the index is once again indicating some stabilization in growth momentum. However, the improvement in growth is expected to be modest.

                                          Westpac forecasts GDP to grow at an annual pace of 1.9% in the second half of the year, up from 1.3% in the first half. Despite this uptick, the growth rate remains below Australia’s trend, which is estimated to be around 2.5% per year with some moderation in population growth.

                                          Full Australia Westpac leading index release.