BoC Macklem: Additional monetary tightening if inflation gets stuck above 2% target

    BoC Tiff Macklem told a parliament committee, “we expect CPI inflation to fall to around 3% in the middle of this year and reach the 2% target in 2024.”

    “For inflation to get back to 2%, the effects of higher interest rates need to work through the economy and restrain spending enough for supply to catch up.”

    “The tightness in the labour market needs to ease, wage growth needs to moderate, and service price inflation needs to cool.”

    “Inflation expectations also need to come down and businesses return to more normal pricing behaviour.”

    “If those things don’t happen, inflation will get stuck above our 2% target, and additional monetary tightening will be required.”

    Full statement here.

    ECB Lane: Tightening estimated to lower inflation by 1.2% in 2023, 1.8% in 2024

      ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a speech that the central bank’s tightening is estimated to have “already lowered inflation by around 0.2 percentage points in 2022”.

      “The considerable lags between monetary policy actions and their impact on inflation, however, imply that most of the effects are only expected to materialise from 2023 onward.” Inflation is estimated to be 1.2% lower in 2023 and 1.8% lower in 2024 as a result of the tightening.

      On the other hand, the impacts on GDP growth “occur much sooner across most models, with the peak effect expected this year.” The negative impact on real GDP growth is estimated to be around 1.5 percentage points on average over the three years.

      Full speech here.

      Fed Mester: Need to bring rate above 5% and hold it there for some time

        Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester said, “at this juncture, the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5% and hold it there for some time to be sufficiently restrictive to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

        “Setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50-basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%,” she said.

        “It is welcome news to see some moderation in inflation readings since last summer, but the level of inflation matters and it is still too high,” She said. Adding that the January CPI data “showed a jump in the monthly rate of overall inflation and no improvement in underlying inflation”

        Mester said “I continue to see the risks to the inflation forecast as tilted to the upside for a number of reasons.” She also said “the transition back to price stability will take some time and will not be without some pain.”

        The impact of Fed policy actions “will result in growth well below trend this year and some cooling off in labor markets, with slower employment growth and an increase in the unemployment rate from its very low level.”

        US initial claims ticked down to 194k

          US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 194k in the week ending February 11, below expectation of 200k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 500 to 189.5k.

          Continuing claims rose 16k to 1696k in the week ending February 4. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 10k to 1673k.

          Full release here.

          US PPI up 0.7% mom, 6.0% yoy in Jan

            US PPI for final demand rose 0.7% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom. PPI goods led the advance and rose 1.2% mom while services rose 0.4% mom. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6% mom, largest advance since March 2022.

            For the 12 months period, PPI rose 6.0% yoy, above expectation of 5.1% yoy. PPI less foods, energy and trade services rose 4.5% yoy.

            Full release here.

            ECB Panetta: Resolute in the right direction, but not drive like crazy at night

              ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said in a speech “as policy rates move more firmly into restrictive territory and the energy shock abates, the risks to the inflation outlook have become more balanced.”

              “The outlook for the economy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, both globally and in the euro area.”

              In this environment, we no longer need to overweight upside risks to avoid worst-case scenarios. We now need to take into account the risk of overtightening alongside the risk of doing too little.” he said.

              A “data-dependent calibration of monetary policy” offers the best way forward while “smoothing our policy moves we ensure that their cost to the economy is minimal.”

              “This doesn’t mean we will not be resolute in the fight against inflation. It means being resolute in the right direction. What we do not want is “to drive like crazy at night with our headlights turned off” – as Italian singer Lucio Battisti once put it.”

              Full speech here.

              Australian employment down -11.5k in Jan, unemployment rate rose to 3.7%

                Australia employment contracted -11.5k or -0.1% mom in January, worse than expectation of 20k growth. Unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%, above expectation of 3.5%. Participation rate dropped from 66.6% to 66.5%. Monthly hours worked dropped -2.1% mom.

                ABS noted: Along with a larger-than-usual increase in unemployed people in January, there was also a similarly larger-than-usual rise in the number of unemployed people who had a job to go to in the future.

                Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics said: “January is the most seasonal time of the year in the Australian labour market, with people leaving jobs but also getting ready to start new jobs or return from leave. This January, we saw more people than usual with a job indicating they were starting or returning to work later in the month.”

                Full release here.

                Japan posts record monthly trade deficit as exports to China tumbled

                  Japan goods exports rose 3.5% yoy to JPY 6551B in January, better than expectation of 0.8% yoy, but much worse than prior month’s 11.5% yoy. Exports to China fell -17.1% yoy on cars, car parts and chip-making equipment. Exports to the US were up 10.2% yoy. Exports to Europe ere up 9.5% yoy.

                  Imports rose 17.8% yoy to JPY 10048B, below expectation of 18.4% yoy and prior month’s 20.7% yoy. Import growth was boosted by coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil,

                  Trade deficit came in at JPY -3497B.The monthly deficit was the largest on record going back to 1979.

                  In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -6.3% mom to JPY 7788B. Imports dropped -5.1% mom to JPY 9609B. Trade deficit was largely unchanged at JPY -1821B.

                  ECB Lagarde: We intend to hike by 50bps in March

                    In a speech to the European Parliament, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that “we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next meeting in March”, and the “evaluate the subsequent path”. Future policy decisions will continue to be “data-dependent” and follow a “meeting-by-meeting approach”.

                    While headline inflation moderated to 8.5% as shown in January flash estimate, “price pressures remain strong and underlying inflation is still high” with core inflation at 5.2%. “Even though most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around 2%, these measures warrant continued monitoring.”

                    Risks to growth outlook are “now more balanced” than they were in December. Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to be a “significant downside risk”. But “faster resolution of the energy shock would support growth”. Risk to inflation outlook “have also become more balanced,  especially in the near term.”

                    Full speech here.

                    US retail sales up 3.0% mom in Jan, ex-auto sales rose 2.3% mom

                      US retail sales rose 3.0% mom to USD 697B in January, above expectation of 1.7% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 2.3% mom to USD 565B, above expectation of 0.9% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 3.2% mom to USD 637B. Ex-auto, gasoline sales rose 2.6% mom to USD 506B.

                      Total sales for the November through January period were up 6.1% yoy from the same period a year ago.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone goods exports rose 9.0% yoy in Dec, imports rose 8.7% yoy

                        Eurozone goods exports rose 9.0% yoy to EUR 238.7B in December. Goods imports rose 8.7% yoy to EUR 247.5B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -8.8B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 9.4% yoy to EUR 212.8B.

                        In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -4.6% mom to EUR 239.7B. Imports dropped -2.9% to EUR 257.9B. Trade deficit widened from November’s EUR -14.4B to EUR -18.1B, larger than expectation of EUR -16.0B. Intra-Eurozone trade dropped from EUR 233.5B to EUR 230.9B.

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone industrial production down -1.1% mom in Dec, EU down -0.4% mom

                          Eurozone industrial production declined -1.1% mom in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Production of intermediate goods fell by -2.8%, durable consumer goods by -1.4%, non-durable consumer goods by -1.0% and capital goods by -0.4%, while production of energy grew by 1.3%.

                          EU industrial production dropped -0.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases were registered in Ireland (-8.5%), Luxembourg (-5.2%) and Lithuania (-4.0%). The highest increases were observed in Denmark (+13.5%), Portugal (+4.1%) and Hungary (+3.8%).

                          Full release here.

                          ECB de Cos: Recent inflation data are somewhat encouraging

                            ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, “recent data on euro area inflation and some of its key determinants are somewhat encouraging, but the overall situation still requires caution”.

                            But he added that the evidence so far was very preliminary. Careful monitoring is required in some areas, including residual pass-through of inflation shocks, and the symmetry of pass-through of energy price delcines to core inflation and wages, as well ass the effects of Chinese reopening.

                            “All these will have to be assessed as part of the full projections exercise under way in the run-up to our March meeting,” De Cos said.

                            UK CPI slowed more than expected to 10.1% yoy in Jan

                              UK CPI slowed from 10.5% yoy to 10.1% yoy in January, below expectation of 10.3% yoy. CPI core slowed from 6.3% yoy to 5.8% yoy, below expectation of 6.2% yoy.

                              The largest downward contribution to annual inflation came from transport (particularly passenger transport and motor fuels), and restaurants and hotels, with rising prices in alcoholic beverages and tobacco making the largest partially offsetting upward contribution to the change.

                              Also released, RPI came in at 0.0% mom, 13.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 13.2% yoy. PPI input was at -0.1% mom, 14.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 14.7% yoy. PPI output was at 0.5% mom, 13.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 14.4% yoy. PPI core output was at 0.6% mom, 11.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 11.9% yoy.

                              Full CPI release here.

                              RBA Lowe: I don’t think we’re at the peak of interest rate yet

                                RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a Senate hearing, “I don’t think we’re at the peak (on interest rate) yet, but how far we have to go up I don’t know.” He noted that inflation, which is currently sitting at 7.8%, was still “wage too high”. Unemployment would need to rise before there were any major changes to inflation.

                                “I understand why some people focus on the risks on the one side, but we’ve got to be attentive to the risk from higher inflation,” Lowe warned. “It’s corrosive for the economy. And all the evidence is if inflation stays high for too long, expectations adjust and that leads to higher interest rates and more unemployment..”

                                “The risks are two sided, and we’re trying to navigate our way through a narrow path.”

                                Fed Williams: We need all the gears turning at the right pace

                                  New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday, “We will we stay the course until our job is done… We must restore balance to the economy and bring inflation down to 2 percent on a sustained basis.”

                                  “We need all the gears turning at the right pace to restore balance between demand and supply in the entire economy,” said Williams. “We still have some way to go to achieve that goal.”

                                  He expects core inflation, as measured by core PCE reading at 4.4% in December, to fall to 3% this year and then 2% over the next few years. Growth will likely slow to just 1% this year, with unemployment rate to rise to between 4% and 5%.

                                  Fed Harker: It’s going to be above 5%

                                    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker commented on yesterday’s inflation report and said “it was good and it was moving down, but not quickly.” He added that FOMC will have to “let the data dictate” tightening, and, “It’s going to be above 5% in the Fed funds rate. How much above 5? It’s going to depend a lot on what we’re seeing.”

                                    “In my view, we are not done yet… but we are likely close,” he said. “At some point this year, I expect that the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work,” he noted in a prepared speech”.

                                    “Rates are now at a level that allow us to slow down and proceed cautiously and, to my mind, the days of us raising 75 basis points at a time have surely passed,” Harker said. “Just at the last meeting, I voted for a hike of 25 basis points — what some would call slow but actually is closer to cruising speed when it comes to tightening.”

                                    Fed Logan: We shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates

                                      Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “we must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions.”

                                      “And even after we have enough evidence that we don’t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it,” she added.

                                      “The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said. “That could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of unanchored inflation expectations that would be very costly to stop.”

                                      “My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates,” she said.

                                      Fed Barkin: Gonna be a lot more inertia, persistence to inflation

                                        Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told BloombergTV that today’s US CPI data is “about as expected”.

                                        “Inflation is normalizing but it’s coming down slowly. I just think there’s gonna be a lot more inertia, a lot more persistence to inflation than maybe we’d all want,” he added.

                                        US CPI slowed to 6.4% yoy in Jan, Core CPI down to 5.6% yoy

                                          US CPI rose 0.5% mom in January while CPI core rose 0.4% mom. Both matched expectations. Food index rose 0.5% mom while energy index rose 2.0% mom.

                                          Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 6.5% yoy to 6.4% yoy, above expectation of 6.2% yoy. That’s nonetheless the lowest reading since October 2021. CPI core slowed from 5.7% yoy to 5.6% yoy, above expectation of 5.5% yoy, but was the lowest since December 2021. Energy index rose 8.7% yoy while food index rose 10.1% yoy.

                                          Full release here.