ECB Holzmann calls for four more 50bps hikes

    ECB Governing council member Robert Holzmann said he would like to have 50bps rates hikes in all of the March, May, June and July meetings.

    “I expect it to take a very long time for inflation to come down,” the Austrian central bank Governor told Handelsblatt. “My hope is that within the next 12 months we will have reached the peak of interest rates.”

    “If we want to get inflation back to two percent in the foreseeable future, we have to be restrictive,” Holzmann said, arguing that only a 4% deposit rate will start restricting growth.

    ECB Lane: Appropriate to raise interest rates further beyond March

      ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that it’s “appropriate” to raise interest rates further beyond March meeting. But the “exact calibration” will depend on the upcoming macroeconomic projections and incoming data on inflation and the monetary transmission mechanism.

      Lane said in a speech, “the current information on underlying inflation pressures suggests that it will be appropriate to raise rates further beyond our March meeting”.

      “By bringing the key policy rates to a sufficiently restrictive level and fostering a period of below-trend growth through the dampening of demand, we will counter-act above-target medium-term inflation pressures and also ensure that the prolonged phase of above-target inflation does not become embedded through a de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” he explained.

      Full speech here.

      Eurozone retail sales volume rose 0.3% mom in Feb

        Eurozone retail sales volume rose 0.3% mom in February, well below expectation of 1.0% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 1.8% for food, drinks and tobacco and by 0.8% for non-food products, while it decreased by -1.5% for automotive fuels.

        EU retail sales volume rose 0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in the Netherlands (+4.9%), Luxembourg (+4.6%) and Slovenia (+4.1%). The largest decreases were observed in Austria (-9.8%), Slovakia (-1.4%) and Hungary (-0.6%).

        Full release here.

        Eurozone Sentix dropped to -11.3, stagnation could turn into renewed recession worries

          Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index dropped from -8 to -11.1, much worst than expectation of an improvement to -5.6.

          Current Situation index rose from -10.0 to -9.3, hitting the highest level since June 2022. But that means the economy is “currently in a stagnation phase at best”.

          Expectations index dropped notably from -6.0 to -13.0. “Over the next six months, investors expect the Eurozone economy to deteriorate.”

          Sentix added, “this stagnation phase could soon turn into renewed recession worries if the negative economic expectations materialise.”

          Full release here.

          UK PMI construction rose to 54.6, returned to growth with increasing optimism

            UK PMI Construction rose sharply from 48.4 to 54.6 in February, well above expectation of 48.5. It’s also the first expansion reading in three months, and highest since May 2022. S&P Global also noted greater commercial work helped to offset drop in housing activity. Input cost inflation was the lowest since November 2020.

            The construction sector returned to growth as commercial work and civil engineering output increased, offsetting a continued weakness in the housing market. Firms attributed the growth to improving global economic conditions and increased client confidence in the commercial segment. Construction companies are increasingly optimistic about the year ahead and expect business to expand, helped by softer inflationary pressures and fewer supplier delays.

            Full release here.

            Swiss Franc rises as CPI reinforces 50bps SNB hike, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF dive

              Swiss Franc saw a surge after the release of the latest CPI data for February, which showed that inflation had accelerated beyond market expectations. The CPI remained above SNB’s target range of 0-2%, coming in at 3.4% yoy. This should reinforce the case for the SNB to maintain its tightening pace and raise interest rates by 50bps to 1.50% on March 23. While some analysts expect a slowdown to 25bps in June, SNB may continue to tighten at the current speed if inflation remains high.

              USD/CHF’s break of 0.9340 support now suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9058 has completed at 0.9439 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.9289 resistance turned support first. Decisive break there will bring retest of 0.9058 low.

              EUR/CHF’s strong break of 4 hour 55 EMA now suggests that rebound from 0.9844 has completed. The corrective pattern from 1.0095 is now extending with another falling leg back towards 0.9844 support.

              Swiss CPI accelerated to 3.4% yoy in Feb, core rose to 2.4% yoy

                Swiss CPI rose 0.7% mom in February, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel), rose 0.8% mom. Prices of domestic products rose 0.6% mom. Imported products rose 1.1% mom.

                Compared with the same month a year ago, CPI accelerated to 3.4% yoy, up from January’s 3.3% yoy, well above expectation of slowing to 2.9% yoy. Core CPI accelerated to 2.4% yoy, up from 2.2% yoy. Domestic prices accelerated to 2.9% yoy, up from 2.6% yoy. Imported prices slowed to 4.9% yoy, down from 5.2% yoy.

                Full release here.

                 

                ECB Lagarde: Recent economic indicators confirming 50bps hike in March

                  ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that it’s “very, very likely” for the central bank to raise interest rate by 50bps this month. The decision was indicated at the last monetary policy meeting, and all recent economic indicators are confirming that this interest rate hike is likely.

                  “It is very likely that we will raise interest rates by 50 basis points,” she said in an interview published on Sunday. “This was a decision that was indicated at our last monetary policy meeting and all the numbers we have been seeing in recent days are confirming that this interest rate hike is very, very likely.”

                  “Headline inflation has gone down in recent months, and will continue to decline in the next few months,” she said. However, “core inflation, which in the euro area excludes energy and food, is too high.”

                  “The way forward is clear: we have to continue to take the measures needed to bring inflation back to 2%. And we will do so,” she added.

                  “My main concern is inflation. We don’t want to break the economy; that’s not our goal.” Lagarde said. “Our goal is to tame inflation.”

                  “As a central bank, interest rate hikes are our main tool to achieve that. Raising interest rates dampens demand and reduces inflationary pressures,” she added.

                  Full interview here.

                  Fed Daly: Disinflation momentum uncertain, further tightening necessary

                    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the uptick in headline and core inflation rates in January indicates that disinflation momentum is uncertain, and further policy tightening is necessary to combat high inflation.

                    “After months of decline, headline and core inflation both ticked up in January on a 12-month basis, and the monthly inflation rate rose at its fastest pace in seven months,” Daly said in a speech on Saturday. “This suggests that the disinflation momentum we need is far from certain.”

                    “It’s clear there is more work to do,” she added. “In order to put this episode of high inflation behind us, further policy tightening, maintained for a longer time, will likely be necessary.”

                    “Achieving our mandated goals takes time and a broader view,” she said. “As policymakers, we have to respond to an economy that is evolving in real time and prepare for what the economy will look like in the future.”

                    Full speech here.

                    US ISM services ticked down to 55.1, corresponds to 1.8% annualized GDP growth

                      US ISM Services PMI ticked down from 55.2 to 55.1 in February, above expectation of 54.4. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped from 60.4 to 56.3. New orders rose from 60.4 to 62.6. Employment rose from 50.0 to 54.0. Prices dropped from 67.8 to 65.6.

                      ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (55.1 percent) corresponds to a 1.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                      Full release here.

                      ECB de Guindos: Underlying inflation is very, very important

                        ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that headline inflation could fall from 8.5% to 6% by mid-2023. However, core inflation could be more stable.

                        “In March we’ll have some projections, we’ll have more data on the evolution of underlying inflation,” Guindos said at CUNEF University. “Underlying inflation is very, very important.”

                        De Guindos also emphasized that inflation will have to clearly converge towards 2% target before the central bank could pause the tightening cycle.

                        ECB Muller: March hike likely not the last rise in this cycle

                          ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said, “it’s most likely this won’t be the last rate rise in this cycle,” referring the the intended 50bps hike this month.

                          “It’s quite possible that interest rates will need to stay high for quite some time so that we can be sure that inflation will come back to, and remain at, close to 2%,” he added.

                          “Headline inflation started to come down toward the end of last year, mainly thanks to a decline in energy prices, and it fell to 8.5% in January. More worrying however is that core inflation has remained persistently high at more than 5%, as the underlying price pressures aren’t yet receding,” Muller said.

                          “If we hesitate, we may later have to raise interest rates much higher, and keep them high for much longer, in order to get inflation down to the target of 2% and to keep it there” he noted.

                          ECB Vasle: March rate hike to be followed by additional increases

                            ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said, “my personal expectations is that the increase we intend for our March meeting — that is 0.5 percentage points — will not be the last one.”

                            March rate hike “will be followed by additional increases before we reach a level that will be sufficient to bring inflation back to the trajectory towards our goal of 2% inflation,” he added.

                            Eurozone PPI at -2.8% mom, 15.0% yoy in Jan

                              Eurozone PPI fell -2.8% mom in January, below expectation of -0.3% mom. Compared with January 2022, industrial producer prices increased by 15.0% yoy, below expectation of 17.7% yoy.

                              For the month, industrial producer prices in Eurozone decreased by -9.4% mom in the energy sector, while prices increased by -0.8% mom for intermediate goods, by -1.2% mom for capital goods, by -1.5% mom for non-durable consumer goods and by -1.6% mom for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 1.1% mom.

                              EU PPI was at -2.2% mom, 16.4% yoy. The largest monthly decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Ireland (-25.2%), Sweden (-8.0%) and Latvia (-5.8%), while the highest increases were observed in Slovakia (9.0%), Czechia and Hungary (both 5.8%) and Austria (4.9%).

                              Full release here.

                              UK PMI services finalized at 53.5, fading recession fears and improving business confidence

                                UK PMI Services was finalized at 53.5 in February, up from January’s 48.6. PMI Composite was finalized at 53.1, up from prior month’s 48.5. Both were their strongest readings since June 2022.

                                Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK service providers moved back into expansion mode in February as fading recession fears and improving business confidence resulted in the strongest rise in new orders since May 2022. However, elevated borrowing costs and stretched household finances remained constraints on growth.

                                “There was clear evidence that input price inflation has peaked, with the latest increase in average cost burdens the weakest since June 2021… Tight labour market conditions and the need to alleviate squeezed margins continued to limit the degree to which falling cost pressures were passed on to end consumers.”

                                Full release here.

                                Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 52 in Feb, a resounding expansion of business activity

                                  Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 52.7 in February, up from January’s 50.8. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.0, up from prior month’s 50.3. Both were at their 8-month highs.

                                  Looking at some member state, PMI composite improved in Spain (55.7, 9-month high), Ireland (54.5, 9-month high), Italy (52.2, 9-month high), France (51.7, 7-month high) and Germany (50.7, 8-month high).

                                  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “A resounding expansion of business activity in February helps allay worries of a eurozone recession, for now. Doubts linger about the underlying strength of demand… Nevertheless, there are clear signs that business confidence has picked up from the lows seen late last year…

                                  “There is a concern, however, that signs of persistent elevated selling price inflation, combined with the surprising resiliency of the economy, will embolden the ECB into more aggressive monetary policy tightening, which poses a downside risk to demand growth in the months ahead.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  China PMI services rose to 55.0, composite rose to 54.2

                                    China Caixin PMI Services rose from 52.9 to 55.0 in February, above expectation of 54.7. That’s also the highest reading since April 2021. PMI Composite rose from 51.1 to 54.2, highest since May 2021.

                                    Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Both manufacturing and services activity recovered gradually. Production, demand, including external demand, and employment all grew, with services activity showing a stronger recovery than manufacturing output. Input costs and prices charged remained stable, and business owners were highly optimistic.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Fed Waller: May need rate above 5.1-5.4% if data continue to be too hot

                                      Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that “a barrage of data” in February has challenged high view that FOMC was “making progress in moderating economic activity and reducing inflation.”

                                      “It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip,” he said.

                                      “If job creation drops back down to a level consistent with the downward trajectory seen late last year and CPI inflation pulls back significantly from the January numbers and resumes its downward path, then I would endorse raising the target range for the federal funds rate a couple more times, to a projected terminal rate between 5.1 and 5.4 percent,” he said.

                                      “On the other hand, if those data reports continue to come in too hot, the policy target range will have to be raised this year even more to ensure that we do not lose the momentum that was in place before the data for January were released,” he added.

                                      Fed Bostic: There is the case we need to go higher

                                        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday, “there is the case that could be made that we need to go higher” on interest rate.

                                        “Consumer spending is strong and labor markets remain quite tight and that those suggest that the economy’s strength could be a bit more than people think, which means we might need to do more.”

                                        “I’m going to stay open to any possibility that if data come in stronger than expected then I will adjust my policy trajectory,” Bostic said.

                                        Fed Collins: We will need to do some additional rate increases

                                          Boston Fed President Susan Collins said yesterday, “we will need to do some additional rate increases and exactly what the right amount is really needs to be dependent on a holistic review of the information that we receive.”

                                          “It will be important to hold there for some time because it takes a while for the effects of tighter financial conditions to work through the economy,” she added.

                                          “We’ve seen some early signs that wage and price pressures might be slowing,” she said. “But we’ve also seen some evidence that high inflation” remains, particularly in some areas of services.