Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in Jan, EU up 0.3% mom

    Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in January, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Production of intermediate goods grew by 1.5%, while production of capital goods fell by -0.2%, durable consumer goods by -0.7%, energy by -0.8% and non-durable consumer goods by -2.1%.

    EU industrial production rose 0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+9.3%), Sweden (+5.0%) and Romania (+2.0%). The largest decreases were observed in Denmark (-7.1%), Hungary (-5.0%) and the Netherlands (-4.3%).

    Full release here.

    IfW raises Germany’s growth forecast, but warns of subdued momentum

      The German economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than previously predicted, according to forecasts by the IfW economic institute. The institute raised Germany’s economic growth forecasts for 2023 from 0.3% to 0.5% and for 2024 from 1.3% to 1.4%. Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to slow from its current level of beyond 7% to 5.4% in 2023 and to around 2% in 2024.

      For the Eurozone as a whole, GDP is projected to grow 1.1% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. Inflation is forecast to slow to 5.5% in 2023 and then to 2.6% in 2024.

      Stefan Kooths, Vice President and Head of Economic Research at the Kiel Institute said, “The economic compass is pointing upwards again, but the momentum remains subdued.

      “The recent sharp drop in gas prices is initially providing little stimulus to the economy in this country, it is primarily easing the burden on the government budget, which now must step in with fewer subsidies as part of the so-called energy price brakes.

      “As a result, lower import prices are replacing the stimulus from state energy subsidies, which has a similar effect on the macro economy.”

      Full release here.

      China posts mixed economic data in Jan-Feb period

        China’s economic data for the first two months of 2023 showed mixed results, with industrial production growth falling short of expectations but retail sales and fixed asset investment exceeding them.

        According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production grew by 2.4% yoy, below the forecasted 2.6% yoy. Retail sales, on the other hand, rose by 3.5% yoy, slightly above expectations of 3.4% yoy.

        Fixed asset investment also exceeded expectations, growing by 5.5% yoy, compared to the forecasted 4.5% yoy. Infrastructure investment saw a rise of 9.0% yoy. However, property investment showed a decline of -5.7% yoy, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector.

        The NBS released a statement that highlighted the challenges facing China’s economy. “The external environment is even more complex, inadequate demand remains prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet,” the statement said.

        The economic data for January and February is combined to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls at different times during the two months in different years.

        BoJ minutes: Basic stance to continue with current monetary easing

          BoJ has reaffirmed its commitment to continuing with its current monetary easing policy, including yield curve control, to achieve the price stability target, according to the minutes of its meeting in January 17-18.

          One member noted that there is “still a long way to go to achieve the price stability target”, and thus the Bank should continue with the current monetary easing to firmly support the economy.

          To encourage firms’ efforts with regard to business transformation until sustained wage increases can be expected, the Bank needs to “curb interest rate rises across the entire yield curve” while paying attention to the functioning of bond markets, according to another member.

          Another member added that it was “inappropriate to rush to an exit” from the current monetary policy, as overseas economies were currently heading toward slowdowns.

          However, one member recognized that “at some point in the future”, it will be necessary to examine and assess the balance between the positive effects and side effects of the current monetary easing policy.

          The Bank’s “basic stance on its future conduct of monetary policy” is to “continue with the current monetary easing — including the conduct of yield curve control — and thereby achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner accompanied by wage increases,” the minutes read.

          Full minutes here.

          US CPI slowed to 6.0% yoy in Feb, core CPI down to 5.5% yoy

            US CPI slowed from 6.4% yoy to 6.0% yoy in February, matched expectations. That’s also the lowest reading since September 2021. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) slowed slightly from 5.6% yoy to 5.5% yoy, matched expectations, and was the lowest since December 2021. Energy index rose 5.2% yoy while food index rose 9.5% yoy.

            For the month, CPI rose 0.4% mom while core CPI rose 0.5% mom. Food index rose 0.4% mom and energy index decreased 0.6% mom.

            Full CPI release here.

            UK payrolled employment rose 98k in Feb, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% in Jan

              In February, UK payrolled employment rose 98k or 0.3% mom. Comparing to the same month a year ago, payrolled employment rose 1040k or 3.6% yoy. Median monthly pay rose 6.7% yoy. Claimant count dropped -11.2k versus expectation of -12.4k.

              In the three month to January, unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, better than expectation of a rise to 3.8%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.5%, below expectation of 6.6%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.7%, matched expectations.

              Full release here.

              US yield curve inversion unwinding quickly, imminent recession concerns

                US yield curve inversion unwinding quickly, imminent recession concerns US Treasury yield has experienced a significant decline as funds continue to pour into bonds due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Overnight, the 2-year yield dropped by -0.585 to 4.030, after breaching the 4% handle. This is the worst one-day drop since the 2008 global financial crisis. The yield fell by nearly 100 basis points from Wednesday’s 5.066, which was the most significant three-day decline since the 1987 market crash.

                However, an even more critical development is the rapid unwinding of the yield curve inversion. Last week, the 10-year yield was more than 100 basis points below the 2-year yield. But now, it’s around 50 basis points below. It’s still too early to tell if the yield curve is normalizing, but recent history suggests that a recession in the US is imminent if that is the case.

                In the first example, for the 1988/90 inversion period, yield curve can be considered fully normalized in April 1990. Recession officially began in July 1990, three months later.

                In the second example, for the 2000 inversion period, yield curve can be considered fully normalized in January 2001, and recession started in March 2001, three months later.

                In the third example, for the 2006/2007 inversion period, yield curve can be considered fully normalized in June 2007. Recession officially started in December, six months later.

                Australia NAB business confidence fell to -4, conditions down to 17

                  Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped sharply from 6 to -4 in February. Business Conditions dropped from 18  to 17. Looking at some details, trading conditions were unchanged at 27. Profitability conditions dropped from 18 to 14. Employment conditions rose from 11 to 12.

                  “Overall, the survey confirms the ongoing resilience of the economy through the first months of 2023, though we continue to expect a more material slowdown in demand later in the year when the full effect of rate rises has passed through,” said NAB.

                  Full release here.

                  Australia Westpac consumer sentiment unchanged at 78.5, second sub-80 read in a row

                    Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index was unchanged at 78.5 in March, a second month of extremely weak reading, near historical lows. Areas of most concern remain inflation, interest rates, and the economy.

                    Westpac noted that there were only one month of sub-80 reading during the COVID pandemic and the global financial crisis period. Runs of sub-80 have only been seen during the recession during the 1980s and 1990s.

                    Regarding RBA policy, Westpac will wait after release of data on employment, inflation, spending, and confidence, before deciding to change the expectation of a 25bps hike in April. But Westpac maintained the forecast of another 25bps hike in May.

                    Full release here.

                    Risk aversion intensifies, GBP/CHF and USD/JPY break important support

                      Swiss Franc and Yen accelerate higher in European as risk aversion appear to intensify again. Major European indexes are down more than -2% at the time of writing, while US futures also reversed earlier gains.

                      In response to the heightened risk aversion, there is a massive flight-to-safety in bond markets. US 10-year yield has hit the lowest level since February and threatens to take out 3.5%, while Germany 10-year yield also broke the 2.2% handle, hitting the lowest level since early February.

                      GBP/CHF breaks through an important support level at 38.2% retracement of 1.0183 to 1.1574 at 1.1043. Deeper fall is expected to lower channel support (now at 1.0922). Decisive break there could prompt downside acceleration to 61.8% retracement at 1.0714.

                      USD/JPY’s strong break of 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 133.81 and 55 day EMA argues that whole rebound from 127.20 has completed at 137.90. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 131.28. Sustained break there will raise the chance of resumption of whole fall from 151.93 through 127.20 low.

                      Gold heading back to 1959 high on weak Dollar

                        Gold prices surged in the Asian session today, following a 2% rally on Friday. At the same time, Dollar and Treasury yield were also trading lower. The market was rocked by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, which triggered panic and furthered risk aversion. Moreover, it lowered expectations for interest rate hikes as the failure of the second-largest collapse of an American lender in history has raised concerns of potential spillover effects on the financial system.

                        Current development argues that Gold’s decline from 1959.47 has completed at 1804.48 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. The rise back above 55 day EMA is also a bullish signal. Further rally is expected as long as 1858.06 resistance turned support holds. to retest 1959.47 high.

                        It’s still early to call for an upside breakout. But decisive break of 1959.47 will resume whole up trend from 1614.60 to 61.8% projection of 1614.60 to 1959.47 from 1804.48 at 2017.60.

                        However, break of 1858.06 will mix up the near term outlook.

                        NZ BNZ services rose to 55.8, activity growing relatively well

                          New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 54.7 to 55.8 in February. The move further above the trend in the index indicates a more favorable comparison to its long-term average of 53.6.

                          Looking at some details, activity/sales rose from 52.1 to 53.6, while employment dipped from 51.6 to 51.2. New orders/business increased from 54.8 to 57.1, and stocks/inventories went up from 54.7 to 58.3. Additionally, supplier deliveries improved from 52.3 to 55.9.

                          BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “the strongly expanding PSI, along with the recovered tone of the PMI, suggests economic activity is growing relatively well in the early stages of this year”.

                          Full release here.

                          US Treasury, FDIC, and Fed announce measures to stabilize banking system

                            The US government has announced measures to stabilize the banking system and alleviate concerns over the potential fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has ensured that depositors will have access to their funds at SVB, and taxpayers will not bear any losses associated with the bank’s resolution. However, shareholders and some unsecured debt holders will not be protected. In addition, a similar exception was announced for Signature Bank in New York.

                            Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has established a new Bank Term Funding Program to provide additional funding to eligible depository institutions, ensuring that banks have the capability to meet the needs of all depositors. This move aims to bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy. These measures are expected to ease concerns over potential systemic risks and promote stability in the banking sector.

                            Here is the joint statement of Treasury, FDIC and Fed.

                            Canada employment rose 21.8k, unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%

                              Canada employment rose 21.8k in February, well above expectation of 2.5k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, versus expectation of 5.1%. But that’s just shy of record-low 4.9% in June and July 2022. Labor force participation rate held steady at 65.7%. Total hours worked rose 0.6% mom. Average hourly waves rose 5.4% yoy

                              Full release here.

                              US NFP rose 311k, unemployment rate rose to 3.6%

                                US non-farm payroll employment rose 311k in February, well above expectation of 200k. January’s figure was revised just slightly down from 517k to 504k. That compared with average monthly gain of 343k over the prior 6 months.

                                Unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6%, above expectation of 3.4%. Participation rate rose from 62.4% to 62.5%.

                                Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Average workweek edged down by -0.1 hour to 34.5 hour.

                                Full release here.

                                NIESR forecasts UK GDP to contract -0.1% in Q1, outlook continues to improve

                                  NIESR forecasts UK GDP to contract -0.1% in Q1, a shallower contraction of -0.2% in prior forecast.

                                  Paula Bejarano Carbo, Associate Economist, NIESR, said “The outlook for the first quarter of 2023 continues to improve as higher-frequency data, including the services and construction February PMIs, indicate that activity will continue to pick-up in February, suggesting that any contraction we might see over Q1 is likely to be shallow.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  CHF/JPY powers through channel resistance on strong Franc

                                    Swiss Franc is surprisingly the strongest one for the week for now, ahead of NFP. In the background, expectations for another 50bps rate hike by SNB on March 23 solidified after data earlier this week showed consumer inflation reaccelerated in February. Tightening could also continue in June if high inflation persists.

                                    Additional boost was seen as on safe haven flow after the US stock markets tumbled overnight while risk off sentiment carried on today. Besides, steep decline in US and European benchmark treasury yields also helped.

                                    On the other hand, Yen is pressured after BoJ left monetary policy unchanged, and indicated it’s in no rush to alter the ultra-loose stance.

                                    CHF/JPY finally break through the medium term channel resistance with some conviction today, and hit as high as 145.69. The development affirms the case that correction from 151.43 has completed at 137.40 already after drawing support from 55 week EMA. , Larger up trend is probably ready to resume. For the near term, outlook will stay bullish as long as 144.95 support holds. Retest of 151.43 high should be seen next.

                                    UK GDP grew 0.3% mom in Jan as services rose 0.5%

                                      UK GDP grew 0.3% mom in January, better than expectation of 0.1% mom. Services rose 0.5% mom. Production declined -0.3% mom. Construction fell by -1.7% mom.

                                      For the three months to January, however, GDP was flat. Services was flat. Production grew by 0.3% while construction contracted -0.7%.

                                      Full GDP release here.

                                      Also published, manufacturing production came in at -0.4% mom, -5.2% yoy in January, versus expectation of -0.1% mom, -5.0% yoy. Industrial production was at -0.3% mom, -4.3% yoy, versus expectation of -0.1% mom, -4.0% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed from GBP -19.3B to GBP -17.9B, versus expectation of GBP -17.5B.

                                      DOW broke key support as focus turns to NFP

                                        DOW suffered a sharp decline overnight, losing -543.5 points or -1.66%, and broke an important near term support level. The banking sector led the sell-off, with the S&P 500’s bank index finishing down -6.6%. Investor caution was also evident ahead of today’s job data release. If the data shows strength, it would back up Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s indications of a 50bps rate hike, which could lead to higher rates that remain for longer. Good news could become bad news again, as investors remain wary of the potential consequences of higher interest rates on the market.

                                        The non-farm payroll report is expected to show a growth of 200k jobs for February. Investors will also be closely monitoring any revisions made to January’s stellar 517k job growth. Unemployment rate is predicted to remain steady at 3.4%, while wage growth is expected to continue its momentum with a 0.3% mom rise.

                                        Related data includes ADP private job report, which demonstrated a 242k increase in jobs for the same month, mostly driven by a 190k rise in the services sector. Meanwhile, ISM manufacturing employment index dropped from 50.6 to 49.1, while the ISM services employment index rose sharply from 50.0 to 54.0. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims remained relatively stable at 197k. Overall, the data indicated a strong employment market, led by services.

                                        Technically, the close below 38.2% retracement of 28660.94 to 34712.28 at 32400.66 suggests fall from 34712.28 is going to be a deep correction at least, with potential of being bearish reversal. Prior rejection by the 55 day EMA is also not a positive sign. Deeper decline is now in favor back to 61.8% retracement at 30972.55, if DOW couldn’t rebound in the coming days. Reactions from 30972 would reveal whether DOW is heading back through 28660.94 low to resume the down trend from last year’s high at 36952.65.

                                        BoJ stands pat and maintains easing bias

                                          As anticipated, BoJ left its monetary policy unchanged today, maintaining its easing bias. Despite a rise in inflation expectations, CPI is projected to slow down during the current fiscal year before experiencing a moderate increase once again.

                                          Under yield curve control, short-term policy rate was held at -0.10%. Long-term interest rate will remain at around 0% with necessary purchase of JGBs without an upper limit. The band for 10-year JGB yield to fluctuate stayed at plus and minus 0.5%.

                                          BoJ maintained the pledge to continue with QQE with YCC for “as long as it is necessary”. It “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary”. It also expects “short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels”.

                                          BoJ said the economy “has picked up” with exports and industrial production “more or less flat”. The economy is projected to “continue growing at a pace above its potential growth rate” as a virtuous cycle form income to spending intensifies gradually.

                                          Inflation expectations “have risen”. But, CPI is “likely to decelerate toward the middle of fiscal 2023”, then “accelerate moderately” on the back of improvement in output gap, rises in medium- to long-term inflation expectations in wage growth, and waning down of energy prices measures.”

                                          The meeting was the last one to be chaired by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Kazuo Ueda was approved by both houses of the parliament this week as the next BoJ Governor.

                                          Full statement here.