IMF cut Japan growth forecast, urges monetary and fiscal policy coordination

    IMF lowered Japan’s GDP growth forecasts in 2019 to 0.8%, down from 0.9%. It expects growth to slow further to 0.5% in 2020. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged that “strengthening the effectiveness of coordination between monetary and fiscal policy remains a high priority” for the country.

    She added, “fiscal policy should be supportive to protect near-term growth and promote inflation momentum”. Also, “beyond the short-run, a clear commitment to long-term fiscal sustainability is essential.” On monetary policy, IMF called on BoJ to maintain support for the economy. It suggested BoJ to shift 0% yield target on 10-year JGB to a shorter maturity, and cut back its buying of long tern government bonds. Such action could steepen the yield curve and help financial institutions’ profitability.

    ECB Villeroy: Green central bank action is not about easing

      ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said he proposed to “decarbonizing the ECB’s balance sheet with a pragmatic, progressive and targeted approach to all corporate assets whether they be held on the central bank’s balance sheet as purchases or taken as collateral.”

      Villeroy noted that the stagflationary nature of climate change was the reason to take it into account. It could challenge the price stability mandate by pushing up prices while weighing on the economy.

      Though, he also noted, “the greening of central bank action is not about additional monetary policy easing but recalibrating our tools”.

      Fed stands pat, tapering may soon be warranted

        Fed kept monetary policy unchanged as expected. Federal funds rate is held at 0-0.25%. The target range will be maintained “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”

        The asset purchase pace is also held at at least USD 80B on treasury securities and USD 40B on MBS per month. Though, it added that “if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”

        Full statement here.

        Dollar rally solidified by Trump’s tweets that bash Fed chair Powell

          Dollar surges broadly overnight after Fed cut interest rate by -25bps to 2.00-2.25% as widely expected. The trigger for Dollar buying came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. He described the rate cut as a “mid-cycle” adjustment of policy, and then added he was “contrasting with the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”. The message was clear that he tried to talk down the expectations of further interest rate cuts ahead. The key would be developments in global economy, trade tensions, domestic data and inflation.

          Suggested readings on FOMC:

          Trump bashed Powell again with his tweets. Trump said “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world….As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!”

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          Ironically, Trumps tweets somehow confirmed market understanding of what Powell tried to deliver. And they help solidify Dollar’s rally and stocks’ selloff. DOW dropped -1.23% overnight. S&P 500 dropped -1.09% and NASDAQ dropped -1.19%. While a short term top was clearly formed at 3027.98 record high in S&P 500, it’s too early to call for reversal. The uptrend looks tired with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there will be first line of defense from 55 day EMA and then second line in medium term trend line. Recent uptrend starts to look week but it’s still healthy.

          UK unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, but wage growth accelerated

            UK unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.1% in the three months ended September, above expectation of 4.0%. But wage growth showed clear acceleration. Average weekly earnings including bonus rose 3.0% 3moy in September, up from 2.7% and matched expectation. Weekly earnings excluding bonus rose 3.2% 3moy, up from 3.1%, beat expectation of 3.1%. Jobless claims rose 20.2k in October, higher than expectation of 4.3k. Overall set of data should be pound positive, but there is no follow through buying yet.

            Full release here.

            UK PMI services finalized at 53.6, severe loss of momentum

              UK PMI Services was finalized at 53.6 in December, down from November’s 58.5, lowest level since February. Markit said export sales were hard-hit by renewed pandemic. Service provides remained upbeat about year ahead prospects. PMI Composite was finalized at 53.6, down from prior month’s 57.6.

              Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “December data revealed a severe loss of momentum for the UK economy as many customer-facing businesses experienced a drop in demand due to escalating COVID-19 cases. Total new orders in the service sector increased at the weakest pace for 10 months. Mass cancellations of bookings in response to the Omicron variant led to a slump in consumer spending on travel, leisure and entertainment. Survey respondents also noted that renewed pandemic restrictions had slowed the recovery in business services.

              Full release here.

              Italy PM Conte hailed budget respected commitments, it’s courageous and serious

                Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirmed the budget deficits plan after meeting of ministers yesterday. The deficit targets are now 2.4% of GDP in 2019, 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. Conte predicted debt-to-GDP ratio to fall slightly from the current 131% to 130% in 2019, and then drop further to 126.5% by 2021.

                Conte hailed the budget as “respected commitments, it is courageous and serious”. And he added “we will show courage above all in 2019, because we believe that our country needs a budget that calls for strong growth”.

                Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said there would be additional investments of 0.2% in 2019, 0.3% in 2020, and 0.4% in 2021. And, he added “this describes the quality of the budget: we’re aiming to have public investments as principal instrument to work on growth”.

                China warned of retaliation against new US tariffs

                  In response to new US tariffs, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying reiterated that China doesn’t want a trade war, but it isn’t afraid of fighting one. She added that China will take counter-measures if the US is bent on putting more tariffs.

                  Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi also warned “additional tariffs is definitely not a constructive way to resolve economic and trade frictions. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the government backed hawkish Global Times newspaper, said “new tariffs will by no means bring closer a deal that the U.S. wants; it will only make it further away.”

                  At this point, it’s uncertain what retaliation China would take yet. Possible measures include banning export of rare earth, and penalties against US companies in China, tariffs on crude oil and aircrafts, formalizing the “unreliable entities”, etc.

                  Copper dips after hitting strong cluster resistance

                    Copper prices dip notably today as metal traders appeared to be turning cautious ahead of FOMC rate decision. In addition, the market needs to seek direction from Chinese data including investment and production to gauge the outlook of demand.

                    Technically, Copper is facing a key cluster resistance zone at around 3.8229 support turned resistance, 55 D EMA (now at 3.8200), as well as 38.2% retracement of 4.3556 to 3.5393 at 3.8511. Rejection by this resistance zone, followed by 3.703 near term support will bring deeper fall back to 3.5393 low, with prospect of resuming the whole down trend from 4.3556. Given the correction between Australian Dollar and Copper, this bearish scenario could push AUD/USD back towards 0.6457 low.

                    On the other hand, sustained break of 3.8229/8511 will argue that whole fall from 4.3556 has completed with three waves down, and turn outlook bullish for 61.8% retracement at 4.0438 and above. This bullish development could help push AUD/USD through structural resistance at 0.6817 decisively.

                    ECB Survey: Inflation expectations dropped significantly

                      According to the latest Consumer Expectations Survey conducted by ECB in April, consumer inflation expectations have taken a significant downturn, reversing most of the gains made in the previous month.

                      The survey revealed that mean inflation expectations for the coming 12 months dropped from 6.3% to 5.3%. Median inflation expectations for the same period also saw a decline, dropping from 5.0% to 4.1%. These results mark a decrease even below February readings, which were at 5.8% and 4.6% respectively.

                      Looking further ahead, mean inflation expectations for three years in the future also slid down from 4.3% to 3.8%. Similarly, median expectations for this timeline dropped from 2.9% to 2.5%.

                      However, consumer sentiment regarding economic growth over the next 12 months displayed less negativity. The mean expectations for economic growth in the next year edged up from -1.0% to -0.8%. Meanwhile, median growth expectations remained static at 0.0% for the next 12 months.

                      Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey here.

                      China said agreements reached on some issues with the US, but considerable differences still exit

                        In an editorial in the official China Xinhua, it’s set that China and the US “reached agreements” on some issues in the trade talks. And both sides agreed to set up a “work mechanism” to keep close communications.

                        But there are “considerable differences” that still exist on some issues and “continued hard work is required for more progress”.

                        US durable goods orders dropped -1.3% in Apr, first decline in a year

                          US durable goods orders dropped -1.3% mom to USD 246.2B in April, worse than expectation of 0.8% mom rise. That’s the first contraction since eleven consecutive monthly growth. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.0% mom, above expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-defense orders were virtually unchanged. Transportation equipment dropped -6.7m to USD 68.9B.

                          Full release here.

                          Fed’s Bostic eyes single rate cut in 2024, credits robust economy

                            Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his anticipation just one interest-rate reduction within this year. Also, the first cut could happen later than previously envisioned, as Fed can “afford to be patient” as long as the economy holds up.

                            Bostic’s noted that as long as the economic indicators—such as GDP growth, employment rates, and business activity—remain robust, “I’m not in a hurry to get inflation down to 2%.”

                            “If it continues on a trajectory, I’m happy with that,” he added.

                            WH Kudlow: Still planning for Chinese trade team to come in September

                              White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said yesterday that there was “quite constructive” telephone conversations at deputy level between US and China and trade. The deputies have agreed to set up another conference call and were working through some of the key issues.

                              Kudow added “we are still planning for the Chinese team to come over here in September.”

                              On the economy, Kudlow dismissed the concerns of a downturn. Instead, he said “we don’t anticipate anything but a solid strong economy.”

                              UK retail sales volume down -1.4% mom in Sep, value down -0.5% mom

                                UK retail sales volume dropped -1.4% mom in September, much worse than expectation of -0.5% mom. Sales values dropped -1.4% mom too. On a year earlier, sales volumes dropped -6.9% yoy while sales value rose 3.8% yoy.

                                Excluding fuel, sales volumes dropped -1.5% mom while sales values dropped -0.4% mom. On a year earlier, sales volume was down -6.2% yoy while sales value was up 3.3% yoy.

                                Comparing with pre-coronavirus level in February 2020, total retail sales were 12.0% higher in value terms but volumes were -1.3% lower.

                                Full release here.

                                Fed Evans: The committee strongly expecting two, three, four rate increases this year

                                  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “I readily admit – I have to be humble about this – I did not expect the inflation rates that we’re seeing and they have lasted longer than I expected. And because they have lasted longer, I know that we need to take action more quickly than I would have guessed last year.”

                                  “We need to be adjusting monetary policy to something close to neutral,” he said. “The committee very strongly is expecting two, three, four rate increases this year. We’ll see how it plays out.”

                                  Bitcoin dives on Tesla halt, correction to extend to 41k

                                    Bitcoin was in free fall overnight after Tesla said it has suspended vehicle purchases using the crypto-currency. “We are concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal, which has the worst emissions of any fuel,” Chief executive Elon Musk tweeted. “Cryptocurrency is a good idea on many levels and we believe it has a promising future, but this cannot come at great cost to the environment.”

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                                    The sharp decline wasn’t much a surprise technically. Bitcoin is now in it’s third leg of the corrective pattern from 64828. Minimum target of 47112 support was actually met already. Though, there is no sign of bottoming and further fall should be seen. The corrective pattern might complete only after testing 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 20283/41964.

                                    Coronavirus job losses in Australia slowed

                                      Australia’s Bureau of Statistics said today that coronavirus job losses has slowed down between mid-April and early May. Overall between March 14 and May 2, payroll jobs dropped by -7.3% and total wages paid dropped -5.4%. In the week between April 25 and May 2, jobs decreased by -1.1% only while wages even rose 0.9%.

                                      Head of Labour Statistics at the ABS, Bjorn Jarvis, said: “The latest data shows a further slowing in the fall in COVID-19 job losses between mid-April and early May.” In addition to the fall in total jobs slowing, some industries were now showing a reduced impact in the most recent weeks.

                                      Full release here.

                                      RBA SoMP: No GDP contraction, trimmed mean inflation to stay higher and longer

                                        In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that “further increases in interest rates will be needed to ensure that the current period of high inflation is only temporary.”

                                        “In assessing how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.”

                                        The economy is not forecast to contract within the projection horizon. Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation is projected to stay higher and longer till mid 2024.

                                        Year-average GDP growth forecast to be (from 3.75% in 2022):

                                        • 2.25% in 2023 (unchanged from prior forecast).
                                        • 1.50% in 2024 (unchanged).
                                        • 1.75% in 2024/25 year (new).

                                        Headline CPI (7.8% in December 2022) is projected to slow to:

                                        • 6.75% in June 2023 (unchanged).
                                        • 4.75% in December 2023 (unchanged).
                                        • 3.50% in June 2024 (down from 4.25%).
                                        • 3.25% in December 2024 (unchanged).
                                        • 3.00% in June 2025 (new).

                                        Trimmed mean CPI (6.9% in December 22) is projected to slow to:

                                        • 6.25% in June 2023 (up from 5.50%).
                                        • 4.25% in December 2024 (up from 3.75%).
                                        • 3.25% in June 2024 (down from 3.50%).
                                        • 3.00% in December 2024 (down from 3.25%).
                                        • 3.00% in June 2025 (new).

                                        Full SoMP here.

                                        Japan Q3 GDP revised up to 1.8% annualized on capital spending

                                          Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was finalized at 0.4% qoq, revised up from preliminary reading of 0.1% qoq. Annualized rate was revised sharply higher to 1.8%, up from 0.2%. That’s the fourth consecutive quarter of growth despite persistent global headwinds.

                                          Looking at some details, capital spending rose 1.8% qoq, revised up from 0.9% qoq. Private consumption rose 0.5% qoq, revised up from 0.4% qoq. Domestic demanded contributed to 0.6% qoq GDP growth while net exports subtracted -0.2% qoq.

                                          Also from Japan, bank lending rose 2.1% yoy in November, above expectation of 1.9% mom. Current account surplus widened to JPY 1.73T, slightly below expectation of JPY 1.74T.