Australia unemployment rate jumped to 22-yr high, PM unveils job trainer support, AUD/JPY dips

    Australia employment rose 210.8k to 12.33m in June, above expectation of 112.5k rise. Full time job dropped -38.1k to 8.49m. Part-time jobs, on the other hand, surged 249k to 3.84m. Unemployment rise rose 0.4% to 7.4%, matched expectations. That’s the highest level since November 1998. Nevertheless, the positive sign is that participation rate jumped back by 1.3% to 64.0%, as people are back in the job markets.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled today a new AUD 2B JobTrainer plan aimed at reskilling and upskilling Australians. He said, the program “doesn’t just support those who have left the workforce through no fault of their own, but that also is supporting school leavers as well at the end of this year.”

    AUD/JPY weakens mildly after the release but stays above 4 hour 55 EMA. We’re viewing the sideway price actions from 72.52 as the second leg of the pattern form 76.78 high only. That is, we’d expect at least another decline before the pattern completes. Break of 73.98 support should target 72.52 and below.

    Risk sentiment resilient ahead of FOMC rate hike, some previews

      Fed is widely expected to continue to slow down its tightening pace today, and raise interest rate by 25bps to 4.50-4.75%. The accompanying statement should clearly indicate that the work is not done yet on fighting inflation. Such message should be echoed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference.

      Fed fund futures are now pricing in another 25bps rate hike to 4.75-5.00% in March. But the main questions are, firstly, whether rate will peak above or below 5% level, and secondly, for how long it will stay there. No concrete answer would be provided at least until new economic projections to be published in March.

      Here are some suggested readings on FOMC:

      Overall risk sentiment has been resilient going into FOMC announcement. For now, further rise is in favor in S&P 500 as long as 55 day EMA (now at 3934.97) holds. Decisive break of 41.00.51 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 3491.58 low. Further break of 61.8% projection of 3491.58 to 4100.51 from 3764.49 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection of 3491.58 to 4100.51 from 3764.49 at 4373.42, even as a bear market rally. If that happens, risk-on sentiment would continue to cap any rebound attempt of Dollar.

      Swiss KOF rose to 97.4, still point to rather weak growth in coming months

        Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 97.4 in March, up from 93.0 and beat expectation of 93.9. The improve is predominantly due to “positive impulses” from manufacturing, as driven by the electrical industry, followed by the metal industry, mechanical engineering and the textile industry.

        KOF Noted in the release that “recent downward tendency has at least for the time being ended.” However, the current reading is still “markedly below its average”. Hence, Swiss economy can expect to experience rather weak growth in the coming months.

        Full release here.

        Dollar index range bound with bullish bias ahead of FOMC minutes

          Minutes of the December FOMC meeting will be a major focus today. Back then, Fed decided to speed up tapering and end it in March instead of June. Also, the new projections saw three rate hikes this year. The markets would like to see more in-depth information an related discussion, and hints on the timing of the first hike. Currently, Fed fund futures are already pricing in nearly 60% chance that federal funds rate will be raised to 0.25-0.50% and above in March.

          Dollar index is staying well in range of 95.51/96.93, much reflecting the movements in EUR/USD. With 95.51 support intact, further rally is expected in DXY, and an upside breakout could come as soon as a reaction to non-farm payroll report this week. A set of strong job numbers could easily push DXY through 61.8% retracement of 102.99 to 82.0 at 97.72. In the case, 100 handle would be within reach very soon.

          Gold extends rebound, heading back to 1833 resistance

            Gold rises strongly today after Dollar failed to ride on strong consumer inflation data to rally. The break of 1787.02 resistance now argues that pull back from 1833.79 has completed at 1721.46 already. The break above 55 day EMA is also a near term bullish signal.

            Further rise is now in favor back to 1833.79 resistance. That’s a key near term level to overcome and firm break there would resume the rise from 1682.60 to 1916.30 resistance. That, if happens, could be a signal of deeper pull back in Dollar. We’ll pay very close attention to the reaction from 1833.79.

            Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 50.6, suggests just 0.1% GDP growth in Q4

              Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 51.9 in November, down from October’s 52.2. PMI Composite was finalized at 50.6, unchanged from last month’s reading. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Composite was finalized at 49.4, hitting a 2-month high but stayed below 50. Italy PMI Composite dropped to 49.6, 7-month low. France PMI Composite dipped to 2-month low of 52.1 but stayed comfortably above 50.

              Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

              “The final eurozone PMI for November came in slightly ahead of the earlier flash estimate but still indicates a near-stagnant economy. The survey data are indicating GDP growth of just 0.1% in the fourth quarter, with manufacturing continuing to act as a major drag. Worryingly, the service sector is also on course for its weakest quarterly expansion for five years, hinting strongly that the slowdown continues to spread.

              “New orders have not shown any growth since August, underscoring the recent weakness of demand, with sharply declining orders for manufactured goods accompanied by substantially weaker gains of new business into the service sector. Expectations are also among the lowest since the tail end of the sovereign debt crisis in 2013, as firms worry about trade wars, Brexit and slowing economic growth both at home and globally.

              “The near-stalling of the economy has been accompanied by some of the weakest price pressures we’ve seen in recent years, which threatens to keep inflation well below the ECB’s target in coming months and adds to the likelihood of further policy stimulus early next year.”

              Full release here.

              Knot: ECB frontloads asset purchases as counterweight to yield rise

                ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot said that a “major part” of recent rise in Eurozone treasury yields was due to improvement growth in inflation outlook of the bloc. But still, the rest was an unwarranted response to the surge in US yields.

                Hence, “we thought it would be wise to frontload part of our purchases, as a counterweight in the coming months”. Knot referred to ECB’s decision to significantly increase the pace of the pandemic emergency purchase program in Q2.

                “But as soon as the improvements that we expect materialise, that reason of course will disappear,” he added.

                Atlanta Fed Bostic: Some overshoot in inflation is fine

                  Altlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an interview:

                  • “We have seen some upward pressure” on inflation.
                  • “We don’t have the ability to stop trends on a dime. Some overshoot is fine,”
                  • If current trends continue, “we are going to see wages start to go up because we will truly have a scarcity of labor,”
                  • “I am not sure there is a big signal” in that on inflation.

                  BoE hikes 25bps, door open for further tightening or pause

                    BoE raised its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected, with a 7-2 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee. MPC members Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro voted against the rate hike, opting for no change, while no member voted for a larger increase.

                    The central bank left the possibility of further rate hikes open, stating, “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.” Simultaneously, it also means the door is open for a pause in the rate hike cycle too.

                    BoE acknowledged that CPI inflation “increased unexpectedly in the latest release” but maintained that it is “likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year.” The central bank emphasized that the degree to which domestic inflationary pressures ease will depend on the economy’s evolution, including the impact of the significant Bank Rate increases so far.

                    Full BoE statement here.

                    Fed to be a non-event, NASDAQ looks into 14k handle

                      Fed will more likely stick to script today and the FOMC meeting could be a non-event. It’s clearly communicated that net asset purchases will end in March. Markets are expecting a 25bps hike in March too. Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to say something that deviate from such expectations and rock the boat.

                      The baseline remains that there will be only three hikes, and no change would be revealed until March economic projections. Powell would also remain non-committal on the timing of balance run-off. So, these two questions would remain unanswered.

                      Some previews on Fed:

                      Markets will probably look more into other developments like tensions surrounding Ukraine for guidance. NASDAQ’s u-turn on Monday was impressive but there was no follow through buying. For now, there is no clearly sign that the steep fall from 16212.22 is ending. The question is whether there would be slightly lengthier interim consolidations first, or the decline would resume right away.

                      A close above 14k, which is close to 38.2% retracement 15319.03 to 13094.65 at 13944.36, will suggest the recovery is going to last longer, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 14469. However, a close below 13414.14 minor support will raise the chance that free fall is coming back.

                      Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.4% in Sep, well below expectations

                        Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.4% mom in September, much worse than expectation of 0.9% mom. Production of durable consumer goods fell by -5.3% mom, energy by -1.0% mom, while production of intermediate goods rose by 0.5% mom, capital goods by 0.6% mom and non-durable consumer goods by 2.1% mom.

                        EU industrial production was unchagned in the month. Among Member States, for which data are available, the largest decreases were observed in Italy (-5.6% mom), Ireland (-4.7% mom) and Portugal (-3.8% mom). The highest increases were registered in Czechia (4.1% mom), Slovakia (3.4% mom) and Poland (3.1% mom).

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI finalized at 46.6, persistent contraction with glimmers of hope in the south

                          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at a 10-month high of 46.6 in January, up from December’s 44.4. Despite this, caution is advised as the index still hovers below the critical expansion threshold. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, highlights that although there’s been a consistent rise over the past three months, including in forward-looking indicators like new orders, the majority of the sub-indices, including the headline index, remain in the contraction zone.

                          This rebound in manufacturing is particularly evident in the “southern economies”, with Greece leading at a 21-month high of 54.7 and both Spain (49.2) and Italy (48.5) showing encouraging trends. However, among the largest Eurozone economies, Germany, despite an 11-month high, remains in contraction at 45.5, and France’s economic situation continues to be concerning, at 43.2.

                          The upward trend in sub-indicators such as stock of purchases, backlogs of work, and output, along with a growing optimism for higher output in the coming year, offers a glimmer of hope. This gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector, spearheaded by the southern economies, may serve as a crucial catalyst to pull the larger Eurozone economies out of the recessionary environment.

                          Full Eurozone PMI Manufacturing release here.

                          ECB Lagarde: PEPP and TLTROs are the likely main tools for policy adjustment

                            At a European Parliament heading, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that “we continue to be confronted with serious circumstances, from both a health and an economic perspective…The key challenge for policymakers will be to bridge the gap until vaccination is well advanced and the recovery can build its own momentum.”

                            Lagarde added, ” the euro area economy is expected to be severely affected by the fallout from the rapid increase in infections and the reinstatement of containment measures, posing a clear downside risk to the near-term economic outlook.” She also reiterated that ECB will “recalibrate” its instrument on the basis of the updated economic projections and reassessments in December.

                            She also noted that the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)  and targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) “have proven their effectiveness in the current environment and can be dynamically adjusted to react to how the pandemic evolves.” So, they are “likely to remain the main tools for adjusting our monetary policy.”

                            Full remarks of Lagarde here.

                            Fed keeps rate at 0-0.25%, maintains forward guidance, full statement

                              Fed keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected. The forward guidance is unchanged too. “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

                              Full statement below.

                              Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

                              The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

                              The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

                              The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

                              The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

                              To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

                              Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

                              US oil inventories dropped -8.5m barrles, WTI mildly higher

                                US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -8.5m barrels in the week ending July 26, more than expectation of -2.5m barrels. At 436.5m barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

                                WTI crude oil’s recovery from 54.79 extends slightly higher after the release. But upside momentum is not too convincing for now. Price actions from 60.93 are still seen as correcting the rise from 50.64. Such consolidation could extend further for a while. Therefore, we don’t expect a break of 60.93 in case of further rally. Instead, another fall through 54.79 is mildly in favor at a later stage when the correcting extends.

                                ECB Lane: Containing the virus is the most important policy objective

                                  In a twitter exchange, ECB chief economist Philip Lane emphasized “the first priority is to contain the virus – if there is a sustained surge in cases, this will damage consumer and investor confidence ”

                                  “Containing the virus is the most important policy objective. Our baseline allows for some periodic resurgence of the virus until a full-scale medical solution is found,” he added.

                                  “The baseline scenario in our staff projections indeed factors in that a medical solution is found over the course of next year. This would support a recovery in the service sector and put upward pressure on service sector inflation”.

                                  G20 stressed importance of trade, urged further dialogue, nothing more

                                    G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended the summit in Buenos Aires with a joint communique that emphasized the importance of international trade. And they urged for the need for “further dialogue and actions”. But the communique fell short of anything else to push back protectionism.

                                    The communique noted “International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development.” And, “we reaffirm the conclusions of our Leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need for further dialogue and actions.” They pledged to work to “strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.”

                                    Below is the full communique covering areas like technology, infrastructure, global financial system, cross-border capital flow, debts, international tax system and even Cryto-assets. But trade wasn’t mentioned beyond the first paragraph.

                                    Communiqué

                                    Finance ministers and central bank governors
                                    March 20, 2018, Buenos Aires

                                    The global economic outlook has continued to improve since we last met in October 2017, with the broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010, and a pick-up in investment and trade. While we welcome this progress, recent market volatility despite sound fundamentals of the global economy is a reminder of risks and vulnerabilities. Downside risks persist and, over the medium term, challenges remain to raise growth and make it more inclusive. This is our moment to take action to address structural growth impediments, rebuild buffers, reduce excessive global imbalances, and mitigate risks. We discussed key risks to the outlook, including financial vulnerabilities that could be revealed with a faster than expected tightening of financial conditions and heightened economic and geopolitical tensions. We agree to continue using all policy tools to support strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. We will implement structural reforms to enhance our growth potential. Fiscal policy should be used flexibly and be growth-friendly, prioritise high quality investment, while enhancing economic and financial resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. Strong fundamentals, sound policies, and a resilient international monetary system are essential to the stability of exchange rates, contributing to strong and sustainable growth and investment. Flexible exchange rates, where feasible, can serve as a shock absorber. We recognise that excessive volatility or disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development. We reaffirm the conclusions of our Leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need for further dialogue and actions. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.

                                    Technology, including digitalisation, is fundamentally reshaping the global economy given its borderless and intangible nature, and its increasing ability to automate cognitive tasks. We are developing a common understanding of the nature of the changes and their potential implications. Transformative technologies are expected to bring immense economic opportunities, such as new ways of doing business, new industries, new and better jobs, and higher GDP growth and living standards. At the same time, the transition creates challenges for individuals, businesses, and governments. These include changes to labour markets, the growing importance of skills and adaptability, and the risk of increased inequality within and between countries. Policy responses, including international cooperation, are needed to harness the opportunities and ensure the benefits are shared by all. We therefore agree to develop a menu of policy options for consideration at our meeting in July.

                                    Infrastructure is critical to boost productivity, enhance connectivity, sustain long-term inclusive growth and provide our citizens with physical and digital access to the new economy. Despite its importance, a persistent infrastructure financing gap remains. Public financing of infrastructure is essential but mobilising additional private capital is needed to meet global infrastructure needs. To achieve this, we agree to promote the necessary conditions to help develop infrastructure as an asset class. To guide our work, we endorse the Roadmap to Infrastructure as an Asset Class which builds on the outcomes of past G20 presidencies and draws together the steps needed to achieve our ambition. The Roadmap identifies seven work streams, including regulatory frameworks and capital markets, as well as quality infrastructure. In 2018, our focus under the Roadmap will be to improve project preparation, move towards greater standardisation of contracts and infrastructure financing instruments, address data gaps, and improve risk mitigation, taking into account country-specific conditions. We look forward to continuing and deepening the dialogue with the private sector.

                                    We note the report of the Independent Board of the Global Infrastructure Hub recommending renewal of its mandate. We call for coordination among current initiatives sponsored by MDBs and others to avoid duplication of efforts.

                                    We reaffirm our commitment to further strengthening the global financial safety net with a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at its centre. We are committed to concluding the 15th General Review of Quotas and agreeing on a new quota formula as a basis for a realignment of quota shares to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole, while protecting the voice and representation of the poorest members by the Spring Meetings of 2019 and no later than the Annual Meetings of 2019.

                                    Cross-border capital flows offer significant benefits, but their size and volatility may pose policy challenges. We will continue to monitor capital flows and refine our understanding of the tools to improve the resilience of the international monetary system. We recognise the importance of macroprudential policies in limiting systemic risk. We continue to deepen our understanding of capital flow management measures and the conditions under which they might be effective, taking into account country-specific circumstances. We are looking forward to further work by the IMF, based on the IMF Institutional View on Capital Flow Management, that will help inform country actions and to the results of the Review of the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movement.

                                    Rising debt levels in Low Income Countries (LICs) have led to concerns about debt vulnerabilities in these economies. We agree that building capacity in public financial management, strengthening domestic policy frameworks, and enhancing information sharing could help avoid new episodes of debt distress in LICs. We call for greater transparency, both on the side of debtors and creditors. We reaffirm our support to the ongoing work of the Paris Club, as the principal international forum for restructuring official bilateral debt, towards the broader inclusion of emerging creditors. We support the provision of technical assistance by the IMF and the World Bank Group (WBG) in debt recording and reporting in LICs, where needed, and look forward to the work of these institutions on debt transparency.

                                    The global financial system must remain open, resilient and supportive of growth and grounded in agreed international standards. We will continue to closely monitor and, if necessary, address emerging risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system. We welcome the finalisation of Basel III, which completes main elements of the post crisis reforms. We remain committed to the full, timely and consistent implementation and finalisation of the reforms and their evaluation to help identify and address any material unintended consequences and ensure that the reforms accomplish their objectives. We look forward to the FSB-led evaluation of the reforms, including their effects on the financing of infrastructure investment and on incentives for central clearing of over-the-counter derivatives. We will continue to address the decline in correspondent banking relationships.

                                    We acknowledge that technological innovation, including that underlying crypto-assets, has the potential to improve the efficiency and inclusiveness of the financial system and the economy more broadly. Crypto-assets do, however, raise issues with respect to consumer and investor protection, market integrity, tax evasion, money laundering and terrorist financing. Crypto-assets lack the key attributes of sovereign currencies. At some point they could have financial stability implications. We commit to implement the FATF standards as they apply to crypto-assets, look forward to the FATF review of those standards, and call on the FATF to advance global implementation. We call on international standard-setting bodies (SSBs) to continue their monitoring of crypto-assets and their risks, according to their mandates, and assess multilateral responses as needed.

                                    We will continue our work for a globally fair and modern international tax system and welcome international cooperation and pro-growth tax policies. We remain committed to the implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting package and welcome progress to date. The impacts of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system remain key outstanding issues. We welcome the OECD interim report analysing the impact of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system. We are committed to work together to seek a consensus-based solution by 2020, with an update in 2019.

                                    We have made substantial progress on tax transparency. Further steps to implement transparency standards and requirements for the exchange of information for tax purposes will take place this year. Jurisdictions scheduled to commence automatic exchange of financial account information for tax purposes in 2018 should ensure that all necessary steps are taken to meet this timeline. We call on all jurisdictions to sign and ratify the multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. We look forward to the OECD’s recommendations on how to further strengthen the criteria for assessing jurisdictions compliance with internationally agreed tax transparency standards. Defensive measures will be considered against listed jurisdictions. We continue to support assistance to developing countries to build their tax capacity. We welcome the first conference of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax and the efforts undertaken to help developing countries implement the new international tax standards. We also encourage countries to enhance tax certainty.

                                    We commit to step up our fight against terrorist financing, money laundering and proliferation financing. We call for the full, effective and swift implementation of the FATF standards worldwide. We reaffirm our support for the FATF, as the global anti money laundering and counter terrorist financing standard-setting body, to further strengthen its institutional basis, governance and capacity. We call on FATF to enhance its efforts to counter proliferation financing.

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 385k, continuing claims ticked up to 3.77m

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -20k to 385k in the week ending May 29, better than expectation of 410k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -30.5k to 428k. Both figures were lowest since March 14, 2020.

                                      Continuing claims rose 169k to 3771k in the week ending May 22. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 23k to 3688k.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Fed Mester: Will take quite some time for activity and jobs to approach normal

                                        Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a speech yesterday that she expected to see “an improvement in the second half of the year as the economy reopens”. However, “it will take quite some time for economic activity and job levels to approach more normal levels”. The improvements will also “vary across sectors”. Some industries like travel and leisure and hospitality will “take quite a while longer “.

                                        By the end of 2020, the output level will see be about 6% below its level at the end of last year. Unemployment would be around (% while inflation will remain below the 2% goal “for some time to come”.

                                        She added that it “makes sense” to continue to monitor the economy and to “to remember that there are several different scenarios that could play out, and to stand ready to use all of our tools to mitigate lasting damage and to support the economy’s recovery”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        France PMI composite dropped to 30.2, GDP collapse rate approaching double digits

                                          France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 42.9 in March, down from 49.7, hitting a 86-month low. PMI Services plummeted to 29.0, down from 52.6, hitting series low. PMI Composite dropped to 30.2, down from 51.9, also a record low. The data suggested that French private sector activity contracted at the sharpest rate in nearly 22 years of data collection.

                                          Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                          “The latest PMI data revealed dismal results for the French private sector, with coronavirus-driven shutdowns leading to widespread economic disruption. March saw a record rate of declines for services activity, while the manufacturing sector suffered to the greatest extent since the global financial crisis. Taken together, these declines suggest GDP is collapsing at an annualised rate approaching double digits.

                                          “Currently with the fourth highest number of confirmed infections in Europe, France has put in place wide-ranging measures to stem the further spread of COVID-19 but is also balancing these with policies to limit the associated economic impact. Over the coming months, the PMI will be a crucial indicator in assessing the development of the effects of these policies on the economy.”

                                          Full release here.