Fed Jefferson on balancing inflation and economic stability

    Fed Philip Jefferson stated yesterday that the current inflation rate is too high, emphasizing the FOMC’s goal to reduce it to 2% as quickly as possible. Speaking at Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Virginia, he acknowledged that the process may take some time due to persistent inflation components such as services excluding housing.

    Jefferson said, “I would like to say that inflation will return to 2% soon, but we have to do it in a way that does not damage the economy any more than is necessary. That’s what we are trying to do.” Fed is grappling with the challenge of ensuring price stability amid high inflation while also maintaining financial stability in the wake of the second-largest bank failure in US history.

    In his speech, Jefferson also noted that although inflation has begun to decline, it remains unclear whether this decrease is due to higher interest rates, easing pandemic-induced supply strains, or falling energy prices.

    He highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of the Fed’s tightening measures, saying, “Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with long, variable, and highly uncertain lags, and we are still learning about the full effect of our tightening thus far.”

    ECB Nagel: Balance reduction could accelerate from summer

      Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel emphasized the growing importance of determining future monetary policy steps on a meeting-to-meeting basis, taking into account economic and financial developments.

      Meanwhile, he assured that the central bank will “continue to move forward resolutely on the path of monetary normalization until inflation is contained and price stability is restored.”

      he pointed out that the cumulative 350 basis points in rate hikes since last July have yet to fully impact the economy. Given the persistently high inflation rates and the considerable distance from the 2% medium-term target, he suggested that it’s time for policymakers to expedite the reduction of the ECB’s bond holdings, which commenced this month.

      “In my view, it can be accelerated from the summer,” Nagel said. “Markets will be able to handle it well, and in terms of monetary policy, it’s necessary to reduce the balance sheet of the Eurosystem more quickly.”

      ECB de Cos: Future policy dependent on various sources of risks

        ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos has emphasized that the central bank’s future monetary policy decisions will be highly dependent on the development of various risk sources, including recent financial market turmoil.

        De Cos also noted that the intensity of monetary policy transmission will be taken into account in policy decisions. He observed that the ongoing tensions in financial markets have led to a further tightening of financial conditions, impacting the outlook for economic activity and inflation.

        As the ECB prepares for its next meetings, De Cos highlighted that all these factors must be considered.

        Reagrading inflation, he wared, “over the medium term, the main risk for inflation comes from a persistent rise in price expectations above our inflation target.”

        Howveer, “the disinflation process could be accelerated further if the high tensions in financial markets were to be prolonged,”he added.

        Germany Ifo rose to 93.3, economy stabilizing despite banking turbulence

          Germany Ifo Business Climate rose form 91.1 to 93.3 in March, above expectation of 92.0. That’s also the fifth consecutive rise. Current Assessment index rose from 93.9 to 95.4, above expectation of 94.0. Expectations index rose from 88.4 to 91.2, above expectation of 87.4.

          By sector, manufacturing rose from 1.5 to 6.6. Services rose from 1.3 to 8.9. Trade ticked up from -10.6 to -10.0. Construction also improved from -19.0 to -17.9.

          Ifo said, the upward development in business climate was “driven primarily by business expectations”. “Despite turbulence at some international banks, the German economy is stabilizing,” it added.

          Full German Ifo release here.

          ECB’s de Guindos on rate hikes: Data-Dependent and cautious amid banking sector uncertainty

            ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos recently shared his thoughts on the central bank’s approach to future rate hikes, emphasizing a data-dependent and cautious stance in light of the uncertainties arising from the financial sector problems in the US and Switzerland.

            In an interview, de Guindos stated, “We raised rates by 50 basis points in March and we are open-minded with respect to the future… We are not pre-committing to any action.”

            The impact of the US banking system and Credit Suisse events on the Eurozone economy is a pressing concern for the ECB. Over the coming weeks and months, de Guindos noted that the central bank would need to evaluate whether these events would lead to tighter financing conditions.

            The ECB Vice President acknowledged that such events increase uncertainty and may result in tighter credit standards in the Eurozone, potentially affecting the economy with lower growth and inflation. However, de Guindos explained that it is too early to determine the intensity of this factor.

            Regarding the ECB’s inflation target, de Guindos emphasized the importance of a timely return to 2% inflation within the two-year projection horizon and highlighted the crucial role of core inflation in achieving this goal.

            He stated, “Headline inflation will decline quite rapidly over the next six to seven months as the base effects play in favor of a rapid reduction in inflation… What we want to see is a steady and clear convergence towards the 2% target. In that respect, core inflation is going to be key. It is very difficult to converge towards the 2% target in a sustainable way without a clear decline in core inflation.”

            Full interview of ECB de Guindos here.

            Fed’s Kashkari warns of recession risks amid banking sector stress

              Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed concerns in a recent CBS “Face the Nation” interview about the recent stress in the banking sector, warning that it could lead to a widespread credit crunch and ultimately push the US into a recession. Kashkari stated, “What’s unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. Would that slow down the economy? This is something that we’re monitoring very, very closely.”

              He acknowledged that the situation is still relatively new, saying, “Right now, the stresses are only a couple of weeks old.” However, Kashkari pointed out some positive signs, such as a slowdown in deposit outflows and a restoration of confidence among smaller and regional banks. He noted, “There are some concerning signs. The positive sign is deposit outflows seem to have slowed down. Some confidence is being restored among smaller and regional banks.”

              Despite these positive developments, Kashkari emphasized the potential risks if capital markets remain closed due to nervous borrowers and lenders, stating, “If those capital markets remain closed because borrowers and lenders remain nervous, then that would tell me, okay, this is probably going to have a bigger impact on the economy.”

              Canada retail sales up 1.4% mom in Jan, beat expectations

                Canada retail sales value rose 1.4% mom to CAD 66.4B in January, above expectation of 0.7% mom. Sales increased in seven of nine-subsecotrs, led by sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+3.0%) and gasoline stations and fuel vendors (+2.9%).

                Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers—increased 0.5% in January.

                Advance estimates indicates that sales deceased -0.6% mom in February.

                Full release here.

                US durable goods orders down -1.0% mom in Feb, led by transport equipment

                  US durable goods orders dropped -1.0% mom to USD 268.5B in February, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. Ex-transport orders was flat 0.0% mom at USD 179.0B, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-defense orders dropped -0.5% mom to USD 251.5B. Transportation equipment dropped -2.8% mom to USD 89.4B.

                  Full durable goods orders release here.

                  UK PMIs: Economic returns to modest growth in Q1

                    UK PMI Manufacturing dropped from 49.3 to 48.0 in March. PMI Services dropped from 53.5 to 52.8. PMI Composite dropped from 53.1 to 52.2. All three were two-month lows.

                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, indicated that the UK economy has shown signs of growth in the first quarter, with the flash PMI surveys indicating a second consecutive month of rising output in March. The data suggests a modest quarterly GDP growth rate of 0.2%, which is a welcome change from the stagnation seen in the second half of the previous year.

                    Despite concerns over the banking sector, businesses remain optimistic about growth possibilities, and the improvement in order book growth suggests that a near-term recession has been averted. The upturn in companies’ expectations for the year ahead indicates that firms are more focused on growth opportunities rather than banking sector challenges.

                    Full UK PMI release here.

                    Eurozone PMI composite rose to 10-month high on strong services

                      Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped from 48.5 to 47.1 in March, hitting a 4-month low. However, PMI Services rose sharply from 52.7 to 55.6. PMI Composite rose from 52.0 to 54.1. Both PMI Services and Composite were the highest levels in 10 months.

                      According to Chris Williamson, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the eurozone economy is experiencing a resurgence, with business activity in March growing at the fastest rate in ten months. The data indicates a 0.3% GDP growth in Q1, accelerating to a 0.5% rate in March. This growth is attributed to fading recession fears, easing inflation pressures, and significant improvements in supplier delivery times.

                      Despite these positive signs, inflationary pressures continue to be a concern, particularly in the service sector and rising wage costs. The growth remains unbalanced, with the service sector driving growth while manufacturing struggles to maintain production amid falling demand.

                      Full Eurozone PMI release here.

                      Also released, Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped further from 46.3 to 44.3 March, a 34-month low. But PMI Services rose from 50.9 to 53.9, a 10-month high. PMI Composite rose from 50.7 to 52.6, also a 10-month high.

                      France PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 47.4 to 47.7 in March. PMI Services rose from 53.1 to 55.5, a 10-month high. PMI Composite rose from 51.7 to 54.0, also a 10-month high.

                      BoE Bailey: Interest rates will go up further if inflation got embedded

                        In a interview with BBC, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that the central bank expects inflation to decline sharply this year as the impact of last year’s steep energy price increases drops from year-on-year price comparisons. He expressed relief that inflation had stabilized and noted some “encouraging signs” of progress. However, he urged continued vigilance, stating, “we have to be extremely vigilant on that front.”

                        Bailey also issued a warning to businesses setting prices, cautioning that “if we get inflation embedded, interest rates will have to go up further.” While acknowledging that companies must set prices according to the costs they face, he urged them to remember the anticipated decrease in inflation this year when setting prices: “we do expect inflation to come down sharply this year and I would just say please bear that in mind.”

                        UK retail sales volume up 1.2% mom in Feb, sales value rose 1.6% mom

                          UK retail sales volume rose 1.2% mom in February, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-fuel sales volume rose 1.5% mom, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Nevertheless, in the three months to February, comparing to the prior three month, sales volume declined -0.3%, while ex-fuel sales volume dropped -0.4.

                          In value term, total sales rose 1.6% mom while ex-fuel sale rose 2.2% mom. In the three months to February, comparing to the prior three months, total sales value rose 0.7% while ex-fuel sales value rose 1.0%.

                          Full UK retail sales release here.

                          Japan CPI core down sharply to 3.1%, but core-core rose to 40-yr high

                            Japan’s headline CPI in February experienced a sharp slowdown from 4.3% yoy to 3.3% yoy, falling below the expected 4.1% yoy. CPI core (all items excluding food) dropped from 4.2% yoy to 3.1% yoy, meeting expectations. Meanwhile, CPI core-core (all items excluding food and energy) rose from 3.2% yoy to 3.5% yoy, surpassing the anticipated 3.4% yoy.

                            Despite the steep decline in CPI core from a 41-year high of 4.2% to 3.1%, the figure remains well above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target. The core-core reading, closely monitored by the BoJ as an indicator of domestic demand, reached its highest rate since January 1982.

                            The data suggests that incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda may need to address a shift from cost-push inflation to demand-driven inflation, which could prove more sustainable.

                            Japan PMIs: Growth continues with strong services but struggling manufacturing

                              Japan PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.7 to 48.6 in March, slightly above expectation of 48.2. PMI Manufacturing Output rose from 45.3 to 47.4. PMI Services ticked up from 54.0 to 54.2, the best reading since October 2013. PMI Composite improved from 51.1 to 51.9.

                              Japanese private sector firms experienced growth for the third consecutive month, with the services sector witnessing a notable improvement. Demand conditions strengthened, as government support and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in mainland China led to increased activity and new orders.

                              However, the manufacturing sector continued to face challenges, with output and new orders still contracting, albeit at a slower rate than February. Manufacturers reported ongoing supply chain normalization, as supplier delivery times lengthened at the slowest pace since October 2020.

                              Full Japan PMI release here.

                              Australia PMI composite dropped to 48.1, renewed contraction

                                Australia PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.5 to 48.7 in March, a 34-month low. PMI Services dropped from 50.7 to 48.2, a 3-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 50.6 to 48.1, a 3-month low. All readings indicated renewed contraction in the private sector following improvements in February.

                                Looking at some details, the results indicate a continued economic slowdown, with composite output and new orders indexes at their lowest since the 2021 Delta lockdowns. Despite easing labor demand, employment indexes suggest businesses are still looking to expand their workforce in 2023. Price indicators have eased but remain elevated, with Australian inflation peaking in late 2022. Service industry input prices are still high, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in 2023 due to labor costs and energy prices.

                                As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares for its April meeting, it faces a tough decision on whether to pause its tightening cycle amid global financial uncertainty, strong employment numbers, and concerns about inflation levels. Some argue that the RBA should raise the cash rate closer to 4% before pausing to observe the economy’s performance over the next few months.

                                Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank noted: “There is no point pausing for a month before hiking again. The RBA Board need to get the cash rate to a level that they think will buy them the time to observe how the economy unfolds for at least three months, if not longer.”

                                Full Australia PMI release here.

                                BoE’s Bailey uncertain about rate peak as inflation remains high

                                  Following BoE’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25%, Governor Andrew Bailey expressed uncertainty about whether this would be the peak for rates.

                                  Talking to broadcasters, Bailey said, “We don’t know whether it’s going to be the peak,” adding that “We’ve seen signs of inflation really peaking now. But of course it’s far too high… We need to see it starting to come down progressively and get back to target.”

                                  In a separate video, Bailey explained the rationale behind the rate hike, stating, “Inflation is still too high, but we continue to expect it to fall sharply from the middle of this year. Raising interest rates is the best way we have of making sure that happens.”

                                  He also emphasized that “low and stable inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy,” and that raising rates is the “best tool” for bringing inflation back under control.

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                                  US initial jobless claims ticked down to 191k

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 191k in the week ending March 18, better than expectation of 195k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -250 to 196.25k.

                                    Continuing claims rose 14k to 1694k in the week ending March 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8.5k to 1684k.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoE hikes 25bps, door open for further tightening or pause

                                      BoE raised its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected, with a 7-2 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee. MPC members Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro voted against the rate hike, opting for no change, while no member voted for a larger increase.

                                      The central bank left the possibility of further rate hikes open, stating, “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.” Simultaneously, it also means the door is open for a pause in the rate hike cycle too.

                                      BoE acknowledged that CPI inflation “increased unexpectedly in the latest release” but maintained that it is “likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year.” The central bank emphasized that the degree to which domestic inflationary pressures ease will depend on the economy’s evolution, including the impact of the significant Bank Rate increases so far.

                                      Full BoE statement here.

                                      SNB hikes 50bps, signals more tightening possible

                                        SNB raises its policy rate by 50bps to 1.50% as widely expected. The central bank indicated the openness to further tightening while inflation forecasts are raised due to stronger second-round effects and increased overseas inflationary pressure.

                                        The central bank said the rate hike is for “countering the renewed increase in inflationary pressure”. It also noted in the statement, “it cannot be ruled out that additional rises in the SNB policy rate will be necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term.” It also remains “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market” with focus on “selling foreign currency” for some quarters.

                                        The bank’s conditional inflation forecast assumes an interest rate of 1.5% over the horizon. Average inflation estimates for 2023 and 2024 were raised from 2.4% to 2.6% and from 1.8% to 2.0%, respectively. Inflation is projected to average 2.0% in 2025, a new forecast.

                                        SNB statement highlighted that “stronger second-round effects and the fact that inflationary pressure from abroad has increased again mean that, despite the raising of the SNB policy rate, the new forecast is higher through to mid-2025 than in December.”

                                        The central bank anticipates a modest GDP growth of around 1% for the year, citing subdued foreign demand and the dampening effect of inflation on purchasing power.

                                        Full SNB statement here.

                                         

                                        GBP/CHF extending range trading ahead of BoE and SNB

                                          BoE and SNB are both expected to raise interest rates today. A 25bps hike by BoE to 4.25% is widely anticipated, though the case for a subsequent pause has been shaken by the reacceleration of consumer inflation in February. The Monetary Policy Committee is known for its divided outlook on the amount of tightening needed, and today’s voting should continue to reflect this pattern.

                                          An explicit indication of a pause could put downward pressure on Sterling, but such a signal is unlikely to emerge. Instead, BoE is more likely to adopt a non-committal stance, waiting for incoming data and the next economic projections in May before making a firm judgment.

                                          Concurrently, SNB is expected to hike by 50bps to 1.50%. Market expectations suggest a possible 25bps hike in June to a terminal rate of 1.75%, followed by a pause. However, the SNB’s comments and projections could reshape these expectations.

                                          Here are some previews for BoE and SNB:

                                          GBP/CHF is still bounded in medium term sideway consolidation from 1.1574. Outlook is kept bullish as the crosses quickly recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 1.0183 to 1.1574 at 1.1043 briefly. A break through 1.1574 resistance to resume the rise form 1.0184 is expected. But that might not happen today, unless there is some drastic surprise from BoE or SNB.