RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in an interview that, after yesterday’s 50bps rate cut, “we’ve got a more balanced outlook for the OCR now”. However, he added, “even within those projections there’s some probability in there that we will need to reduce the OCR from where it is at the moment.”
Hawkesby explained that markets have already priced in a smaller 25bps before yesterday’s announce. And the New Zealand Dollar faced downward pressure after the decision, which could give an extra boost to exports. He added “it’s all part of the story of us getting back to our targets.” He hoped that the larger cut could help avoid further policy easing. But RBNA is “complete” open to use negative interest rates and other unconventional tools if necessary.
The main consideration for any next move is on global outlook. He said, “the obvious one is the global environment where we feel like the risks are tilted to the downside, and that was one of the factors that prompted us to ease with the 50 basis points this time around.”
Swiss GDP grew 0.2% qoq, confirmed slowdown
Swiss GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q4, rebounded from Q3’s -0.3% qoq contraction, but missed expectation of 0.4% qoq. SECO noted that “as in other European countries, this confirms a slowdown of the economy compared to the first half of the year.”
Looking at the details, manufacturing grew 1.5%, benefited from the strong international demand for Swiss products: exports of goods**(+5.6%) grew substantially. Development in the service industry varied and remained below the historical average, curbed by declining exports of services (−2.6 %) and a final domestic demand which remains sluggish (−0.0%). Consumption expenditures of private households (+0.3%) saw a moderate rise.
Full GDP release here.