China backs down from tariff escalation, urges continuing negotiations

    China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said today that “China has ample means for retaliation, but thinks the question that should be discussed now is about removing the new tariffs to prevent escalation of the trade war.” And, “China is lodging solemn representations with the U.S. on the matter.”

    Additionally, Gao reiterated the usual rhetoric that “escalation of the trade war won’t benefit China, nor the US, nor the world,” and “the most important thing is to create the necessary conditions for continuing negotiations.” He also repeated Vice Premier Liu He’s comment that China is “willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude, but firmly opposes escalation of trade war.”

    The comments suggested that China is backing down from its hard-line stance after recent escalation by US President Donald Trump. Trump tweeted earlier this month that 25% tariffs on some USD 250B in imports from China would rise to 30% come Oct. 1. He also lifted planned levies on USD 300B in Chinese goods due on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15 by 5%.

    BoC to continue tapering, EUR/CAD range bound

      BoC is generally expected to continue with tapering today, reducing weekly asset purchases from CAD 3B to CAD 2B. It’s also expected to maintain the projection that first rate hike would happen in H2 of 2022. The focuses would be on new economic projections, in particular, on whether inflation forecasts would be up graded significantly.

      Here are some previews on BoC:

      Canadian Dollar’s reaction to BoC’s tapering hasn’t been positive so far. Outlook in EUR/CAD is unclear. Bullish convergence in daily MACD argues that medium term momentum is diminishing. Yet, it failed to sustain above the 55 day EMA, despite rebounding to 1.4913. Also, price actions from 1.4580 are more corrective looking than not. So, we’d see if today’s BoC announce could finally trigger deeper fall back towards 1.4580.

      Dollar rebounds as Fed will discuss wrapping up tapering sooner

        Dollar rebounds strongly after surprising hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In a hearing with the Senate Banking Committee, he said, “At this point, the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are higher, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases … perhaps a few months sooner.’ He added, “I expect that we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting.”

        “The word transitory has different meanings for different people. To many it carries a sense of short-lived. We tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,” Powell said. “I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.”

        EUR/USD tumbles sharply on the news, after breaching 1.1373 resistance very briefly. Attention is now on whether selling would gather momentum to push it through 1.1182 to resume the larger down trend from 1.2348.

        Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 56.1, unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices

          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped from 61.5 to 58.7 in September, below expectation of 60.4, a 7-month low. PMI Services dropped from 59.0 to 56.3, below expectation of 58.4, a 4-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 59.0 to 56.1, a 5-month low.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

          “September’s flash PMI highlights an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.

          “On one hand, some cooling of growth from the two-decade highs seen earlier in the summer was to be expected. On the other hand, firms have become increasingly frustrated by supply delays, shortages and ever-higher prices for inputs. Businesses, most notably in manufacturing but also now in the service sector, are being constrained as a result, often losing sales and customers.

          “Concerns over high prices, stressed supply chains and the resilience of demand in the ongoing pandemic environment has consequently eroded business confidence, with expectations for the year ahead now down to the lowest since January.

          “For now, the overall rate of expansion remains solid, despite slowing, but growth looks likely to weaken further in coming months if the price and supply headwinds show no signs of abating, especially if accompanied by any rise in virus cases as we head into the autumn.”

          Full release here.

          GCEE projects German economy to grow 2.7% this year and 4.6% next

            In the latest annual report, the German Council of Economic Experts said, “a variety of bottlenecks on the supply side are disrupting global value chains and, combined with the pandemic-related restrictions that are still in place, are holding back growth.”

            It forecasts Germany GDP to grow 2.7% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022. And that subject to “significant risks” including “return of extensive measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus or persistent supply and capacity bottleneck”.

            The GCEE projections an inflation rate for Germany of 3.1% in 2021 and then 2.6% in 2022. “Longer-lasting supply-side bottlenecks, higher wage settlements, and rising energy prices pose a risk, however, that what are in fact temporary drivers of prices could lead to persistently higher inflation rates,” it said.

            “Fiscal policy needs to normalise following the crisis. Public finances have to be made more sustainable and crisis-resilient again,” says Volker Wieland, member of the GCEE. “The best way for monetary policy to contribute to sustainable economic growth is by maintaining price stability. A normalisation strategy should be published for this purpose.”

            Full release here.

            Canada retail sales rose 0.4% in Oct, up in 6 of 11 subsectors

              Canada retail sales rose 0.4% mom to CAD 54.6B in October, above expectation of 0.1% mom. That’s the sixth consecutive monthly increase since the record decline in April. Retail sales increased in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 50.9% of retail trade. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, edged up 0.3% mom.

              Full release here.

              US announced Tariffs on USD 34B of Chinese imports, starting July 6. Added USD 16B products for public hearing

                The US Trade Representative formally announced the section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, targeting products related to the Made in China 2025 policy. USTR said these “strong defensive actions” are to ” protect America’s leadership in technology and innovation against the unprecedented threat posed by China’s theft of our intellectual property, the forced transfer of American technology, and its cyber attacks on our computer networks.” And it condemned that “China’s government is aggressively working to undermine America’s high-tech industries and our economic leadership through unfair trade practices and industrial policies like ‘Made in China 2025.'”

                There are two set of tariffs lines. The first set contains 818 lines of the original 1,333 lines announced in April. This set covers around USD 34B of Chinese imports. 25% tariffs will be imposed starting July 6, 2018. The second set contained 284 proposed tariff lines, covering around USD 16B in Chinese goods. This set will undergo further public view before finalizing.

                Altogether they’re valued around USD 50B. and focuses on products from industrial sectors that contribute to or benefit from the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, which include industries such as aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics, industrial machinery, new materials, and automobiles. The list does not include goods commonly purchased by American consumers such as cellular telephones or televisions.

                BoE’s Mann foresees inflation bounce after touching 2%

                  BoE MPC member Catherine Mann, known for her hawkish stance, expressed caution in a speech overnight. Although headline inflation has fallen to 2%, Mann described this as a “touch and go,” predicting that “we’re going to be above 2% for the rest of the year.”

                  Mann emphasized the need to see a “sustained deceleration” in services inflation, signaling her reluctance to support interest rate cuts at this stage. Her comments suggest she remains committed to resisting rate cuts despite recent data showing headline inflation at the BoE’s 2% target.

                   

                  BoJ discussed impacts of prolonged pandemic impacts

                    In the minutes of October 28-29 BoJ meeting, one member said the bank should “avoid bringing a premature end” to the pandemic policy responses, as the impact “might be prolonged”.

                    Another member warned, “given that monetary easing was expected to be prolonged, the Bank should further look for ways to enhance sustainability of the policy measure so that it would not face difficulty in conducting such purchases when a lowering of risk premia of asset prices was absolutely necessary.”

                    Also, one noted “attention should be paid to the possibility that the more prolonged the crisis response, the more the structural reforms toward sustainable growth would be delayed”.

                    Full minutes here.

                    Oil prices hit yearly high on shrinking inventories, WTI in march to 100

                      Oil prices saw a sharp ascent overnight, extending their gains into Asian trading session today and marking their highest point in over a year. With technical indicators pointing to a potential acceleration, WTI oil is on the march towards 100 psychological level.

                      A factor propelling this surge is the pronounced drop in US crude stocks, amplifying concerns about tightening global supply in light of OPEC+ production cuts, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia. Yesterday’s data revealed that oil inventories dipped by -2.2m barrels last week, settling at 416.3m barrels.

                      Furthermore, the stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, a crucial storage hub and the delivery point for US crude futures, saw a reduction of -943k barrels over the week, dropping to just under 22m barrels, lowest since July 2022. Significantly, these reserves at Cushing have been on decline for seven consecutive weeks. Many market participants view these current levels as bordering on the minimum required for operational functionality of the storage tanks.

                      Technically, WTI crude oil’s recent up trend resumed after brief consolidations and surged through 95 handle. There is sign of upside acceleration with break of the rising channel resistance. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 88.67 support holds. Next target is 50% retracement of 131.82 to 63.67 at 97.74. Decisive break there could pave the way through 100 psychological to 61.8% retracement at 105.78.

                      Bundesbank: German economy to see fairly strong growth again in Q4

                        Bundesbank said in its monthly report that the -0.2% contraction in Q3 GDP in Germany was due to “a strong temporary one- off effect in the automotive sector.” Meanwhile, “private consumption was temporarily absent as a driving force of the economy”.

                        However, after that “setback” the German economy is “expected to see fairly strong growth again in the final quarter of 2018”. Bundesbank said output and exports of motor vehicles are “expected to return to normal before the year is out”. And, “manufacturing sector as a whole likewise looks set for marked growth.” “Private consumption is expected to re- assume its role as a major economic driver”. And, “the still outstanding income and labour market prospects are expected to again provide a boost.”

                        Full report here.

                        Australia GDP grew 0.6% qoq in Q3, terms of trade deteriorated

                          Australia GDP grew 0.6% qoq in Q3, below expectation of 0.7% qoq. Household spending rose 1.1%, contributing 0.6% to GDP. Compensation of employees increased 3.2%, the strongest rise since December quarter 2006. Net trade detracted -0.2% from GDP, with a 2.7% increase in exports offset by a 3.9% rise in imports. The terms of trade fell -6.6%, the largest fall since June quarter 2009, as import prices increased and export prices fell.

                          Full release here.

                          Germany PPI up 1.4% mom, 25.9% yoy in Feb, Russia invasion impact not yet included

                            Germany PPI rose 1.4% mom, 25.9% yoy in February, below expectation of 1.7% mom, 26.1% yoy, comparing to January’s 2.2% mom, 25.0% yoy.

                            Destatis said, “the recent price development in the context of Russia’s attack on Ukraine are not yet included in the results… Mainly responsible for the increase of producer prices compared to February 2021 still was the price increase of energy.”

                            Energy prices as a whole rose 68.0% yoy. Price of intermediate goods rose 21.0% yoy. Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose 7.4% yoy. Prices of durable consumer goods rose 6.7% yoy. Capital goods prices rose 5.5% yoy.

                            Full release here.

                            UK PMI composite rises to 54, sustainable path to target inflation not achieved yet

                              UK PMI Manufacturing fell from 50.3 to 48.7 in April, below expectation of 50.2. PMI Services rose from 53.1 to 54.9, above expectation of 50.2, and an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 52.8 to 54.0, also an 11-month high.

                              Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that UK economy’s rebound from last year’s recession “continued to gain momentum”. He noted that GDP is now growing at an increased quarterly rate of 0.4%, up from 0.3% in the first quarter.

                              This economic upturn has led to increased hiring, driven further by the rise in the National Living Wage in April. However, these factors have also escalated cost pressures significantly. Although the inflation of selling prices has moderated slightly, the combination of rising costs and solid demand could lead businesses to hike prices in the near future.

                              “While the improving economic recovery picture is welcome news, the upward pressure on inflation will add to concerns that a sustainable path to below target inflation has not yet been achieved,” he added.

                              Full UK PMI release here.

                              Yuan rebounds as US, China seek to restart trade talk, but we doubt.

                                Dollar is apparently lifted mildly by a Bloomberg report that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are having private conversations for restarting the trade negotiations.

                                It seems like a very early stage of re-engagement as there is no time-table, nor any format for the talk. But, there is only vague consensus that talks need to take place.

                                While Dollar is strengthening against Yen, it dips notably against the offshore China Yuan on the news.

                                On the one hand, it’s understandable for China to seek a way out of the tariffs vicious cycle given that US and EU are now aligned against it after Juncker’s visit.

                                On the other hand, it should be noted that Liu He was assigned a new task last week to lead a special work group to oversee state-owned enterprise reforms. Adding another task for Liu in such a crucial time when he’s leading trade negotiation with the US is unusual. And that prompted speculations that President Xi Jinping is not satisfied with what Liu has done. And Liu could be moved away from the circle on the trade issue.

                                So, the news is doubtful to us.

                                US retail sales up 0.6% mom, ex-auto sales up 0.6%, above expectations

                                  US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 697.6B in August, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.6% to USD 564.0B, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 642.3B. Ex-auto & gasoline sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 508.8B

                                  In the three months through August, sales were up 2.2% yoy from the same period a year ago.

                                  Full US retail sales release here.

                                  US PPI up 0.2% mom, 2.3% yoy in Apr

                                    US PPI for final demand rose 0.2% mom in April, below expectation of 0.3% mom. 80% of the rise in PPI attributable to a 0.3% mom increase in prices for services. The index for goods advanced 0.2% mom. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2% mom.

                                    For the 12 months ended in April, PPI slowed from 2.7% yoy to 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 1.4% yoy. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services slowed from 3.4% yoy to 3.2% yoy, above expectation of 2.7% yoy.

                                    Full US PPI release here.

                                    Japan PMI manufacturing improved to 49.5, remained stuck in its rut

                                      Japan PMI manufacturing rose to 49.5 in April, up from 49.2 and beat expectation of 49.4. Nevertheless, it’s still the third straight month of sub-50 reading. Markit pointed out that weaker demand from domestic and international markets persists, leading output to fall further. But manufacturing employment remains resilient.

                                      Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

                                      “Japan’s manufacturing sector remained stuck in its rut at the start of Q2, with the factors which have prohibited any growth such as US-Sino relations, growth fears in China and the turn in the global trade cycle, all remaining prominent risks. Export orders dipped at a stronger rate in April, domestic demand for goods was similarly weak and firms cut their stocks and scaled back production. Yet again, the service sector will need to pick up any slack to help keep Japan’s economy afloat.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      China trade balance Q1: EU imports surged 17.5% to $63.5b, US imports rose only 8.9% to $41.7b

                                        China reported a rate trade deficit of USD -5b in March versus expectation of USD 27.8b surplus. That’s also the first monthly trade deficit since last February. Imports rose 5.9% yoy while exports dropped -2.7% yoy. Trade surplus with US dropped to USD 15.3b. In CNY terms trade balance came in at CNY -30b deficit versus expectation of CNY 160b surplus. Imports dropped -9.8% yoy while exports also dropped -9.8% yoy.

                                        For the quarter from January to March, 2018, China’s trade surplus came in at USD 49.1b, dropped -23.2% yoy from Q1 of 2017. Exports rose 14.1% yoy. But import grew even stronger by 18.9% yoy. In CNY terms, Q1 trade surplus rose came in at CNY 326.2b with exports increased by 7.4% yoy and imports jumped even stronger by 11.7% yoy.

                                        Also for Q1, export to US rose 14.8% yoy to USD 99.9b while imports from US rose 8.9% yoy to USD 41.7b. Exports to EU rose 13.2% yoy to USD 90.2b while imports from EU rose 17.5% yoy to USD 63.5b.

                                        The EU is doing pretty well in selling the China.

                                        China PMI manufacturing dropped to 51.2, short term downward pressure emerged

                                          The official China PMI manufacturing dropped -0.3 to 51.2 in July, below expectation of 51.3. Official PMI services dropped -1.0 to 54.0, missed expectation of 55.0. Analyst Zhang Liqun noted in the release that despite the slight decline in the PMI index, “steady growth of the economy remained unchanged”. However, “short term downward pressure has emerged”.

                                          Looking at the details, eight of the sub-indices declined in the month. They include production, new order, purchase volume, import, purchase price, ex-factory price, suppliers delivery, production and operation expectation, New export orders, was unchanged but in contraction region at 49.8. The data set is seen by some as the first sign of impact from increasing trade tension with the US.

                                          Full release here in simplified Chinese.